Article: What To Do With Michael Tonkin

[Tom Froemming]

This spring, Michael Tonkin essentially had a golden ticket. Being out of options, the Twins had to either break camp with Tonkin on the 25-man roster or lose him to waivers.

 

Being young, cheap and having been effective in brief cameos with the Twins the prior three seasons, it was an easy choice. Tonkin has stuck on the big club all year, but one has to wonder how much longer he'll remain in the organization.

 

The 6-foot-7 righty didn't exactly earn his way onto the Opening Day roster, as he gave up seven earned runs in eight innings pitched in the Grapefruit League, and he hasn't done much to impress since. It's not likely that Tonkin would have stuck on the major league roster the entire season if he still had an option year to burn. After all, this is a guy the club optioned to Rochester ten different times over the last three seasons.

 

But is there any reason to be optimistic about Tonkin's future?On the down side, Tonkin has a 5.17 ERA and has been unusable against lefties, as they are hitting .292/.380/.642 off him going into Thursday's game (Victor Martinez added a three-run homer to Tonkin's lefty woes).You'd think a changeup guru would help Tonkin develop that pitch to better neutralize southpaws (looking at you, Neil Allen).

 

Tonkin can rack up strikeouts, but bad things happen when he allows contact. This season he's inducing fewer grounders (48.8% coming into 2016 vs. 34% this season), giving up more line drives (18.9% vs. 26.4%) and more of his fly balls are leaving the park (11.3 HR/FB vs. 15.4).

 

If you want to shut the book on Tonkin based just on those numbers, I can't blame you. But, looking deeper into the numbers and taking into account how he's been used, there may be some reason for hope.

 

On the plus side, Tonkin is improving in some crucial areas. He's boosted his strikeout rate (7.55 entering the season to 9.91 in 2016) while lowering his walk rate (3.02 vs. 2.87). Also, both his contact percentage (76.3) and swinging strike rate (11.1) are career highs by a large margin.

 

One thing that hasn't been in Tonkin's favor that's out of his control is the way he's been used. He's recorded at least four outs in 23 appearances and pitched two full innings or more nine times. He's appeared in every inning but the first and his 1,233 pitches thrown ranks 7th among 140 qualified relievers.

 

He's Paul Molitor's mop-up man, and the role has not suited him well.

 

Through his first 25 pitches of an outing, Tonkin has limited opponents to a .786 OPS, but once he has eclipsed the 25-pitch mark, it spikes to a 1.128 OPS. He's also giving up a .957 OPS when pitching in games where there is at least a four-run margin (which was the case when he allowed the V-Mart homer on Thursday afternoon).

 

Obviously, one way to get out of that mop-up role would be to perform well enough that you get promoted to late-inning work, but Tonkin hasn't inspired confidence to rationalize that kind of jump. But he continues to be used in a role that doesn't appear to suit him and, surprise, he continues to underperform. It's not too different from the lose-lose situation Trevor May has been in the last season and a half.

 

With a new set of evaluators set to take over the front office, maybe Tonkin's role will be adjusted in 2017. Or maybe he'll be jettisoned off the roster and be evaluated in an entirely new organization.

 

Things haven't gone the way I'm sure Michael Tonkin had hoped in 2016, but I wouldn't be surprised with a new, more specialized role and a different pitch mix he could find success next season.

 

Click here to view the article

[Tom Froemming]

One last Michael Tonkin fun fact: 

 

Out of the 140 qualified relievers heading into today, only 16 have both a better K/9 and a better BB/9 than Tonkin. Of those 16 guys, half have an ERA under 2.00 and only one has an ERA over 4.00 (Justin Wilson of Detroit at 4.28).

 

[ashbury]

It's the manager's job to pick a role each pitcher can succeed in.

 

It's the pitching coach's job to help the pitcher succeed in the role he's been assigned. Even if the role isn't quite ideal, adjustments might be possible.

 

It's the pitcher's job to succeed, obviously. I'm wondering if a different coach could have helped Tonkin adjust better, though. I'm willing to roll the dice with a different coach next season, as I've said probably too frequently by now.

[DocBauer]

What all of your statistics tell me is he actually pitched pretty well when allowed to pitch the way he has his entire previous career, as a 1 inning short guy.

 

Based on his stuff, precious milb success, and the stats offered up in the article, you'd think with his first full season complete, there would be something to build on for '17 and beyond if was just used properly. That would tell me to keep him.

 

But with so many guys to try to keep on the 40 man this year, someone closer to the situation and undoubtedly smarter than me will have to make that determination.

[Kwak]

Every Twins pitcher should be doing some "experimenting" while this season is being "mopped-up". I haven't followed Tonkin close enough to know if/what he doing differently, but I tend to ignore results during this period. It will be in Spring training that I want to take a very close look at Tonkin to assess whether he has improved. If he hasn't, then waive him him. If somebody claims him, so be it. Else back to Rochester to see if he can't find a useful second pitch.

[Nick Nelson]

Being young, cheap and having been effective in brief cameos with the Twins the prior three seasons, it was an easy choice.

 

You would think so. But based on what I heard when I was down there in March, the team was very close to letting him go. If they had kept Duffey in the rotation and sent Nolasco to the bullpen, as they were apparently planning until the last week, Tonkin would've been gone.

 

I think you hit the nail on the head with the workload numbers. Tonkin has been a dominant closer in the minors and now he's been arbitrarily thrown into a long relief role, which is completely foreign to him. The change in usage takes a toll in individual appearances (as your stats illustrate) and even more so over time. He's clearly got nothing left at this point in the season and it's baffling that they even continue to use him.

 

They'll let him go, and he'll join another team that uses him in the right way and turns him into a nice setup man. Painfully predictable. 

[TheLeviathan]

Keep him, make him your 6/7th inning guy.  

[snepp]

 

Keep him, make him your 6/7th inning guy.  

 

And preferably the inning with the fewest lefties.

[beckmt]

Trade or nontender.

[Rosterman]

Sadly, he is one of those guys that it is doubtful that people are lining  to sign him. But if the Twins would move him off the 40-man, he would get a contract somewhere...even if he had to start over again at AAA. And he wouldn't return to the Twins.

[Linus]

Part of the problem here is you can't have a bullpen full of guys that can only be successful if used a certain way. Baseball games and seasons don't work that way. He's not good enough to close or setup so he's gonna have to pitch more than one inning fairly frequently.

[Brock Beauchamp]

About Tonkin's extended use. It's an interesting thing to note but I'm not entirely convinced it means anything.

 

Here are his combined MLB/MiLB numbers from 2013-2016. I've extracted the number of >1 IP appearances versus total appearances.

 

2016: 69.1 IP, 63 appearances, 23 appearances >1 IP, 37% of total appearances.

2015: 64.1 IP, 59 appearances, 14 appearances >1 IP, 24% of total appearances.

2014: 64.0 IP, 64 appearances, 14 appearances >1 IP, 22% of total appearances.

2013: 68.1 IP, 61 appearances, 19 appearances >1 IP, 31% of total appearances.

 

So, the number has trended upward from 2014-2016 but he also pitched nearly 1/3rd of his 2013 appearances in extended appearances (mostly in MiLB).

 

Either way, this isn't a question we should be asking given the Twins' bullpen. If there's even a small doubt that Tonkin suffers from extended appearances, nothing would be lost by removing those appearances because, in case no one has noticed, this team is terrible at baseball and there were ample opportunities to let guys find their niche and be successful this season without overextending them into situations under which they don't/can't thrive.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Part of the problem here is you can't have a bullpen full of guys that can only be successful if used a certain way. Baseball games and seasons don't work that way. He's not good enough to close or setup so he's gonna have to pitch more than one inning fairly frequently.

Does he, though? In a seven man bullpen (much less an eight man), there's plenty of room for two guys at the bottom of the pen who specialize in throwing multiple innings. The 4-5 guys at the top can specialize in single inning appearances. That doesn't mean they never pitch more than one inning but in Tonkin's case, he's approaching 40% of his appearances being longer than a single inning.

[Vanimal46]

He can be brought back for next season. I wouldn't be afraid to have a quick DFA finger, as I can't imagine other teams would be salivating to pick him up from the Twins. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Honestly, this is another head scratching data point about a guy who can be so dominant in AAA but cannot seem to have anything more than short stretches of good play at MLB.  Do keep in mind he wasn't bad through the first half of the year.  I have to think that there's something going on at the coaching side of things.  We shouldn't be redeveloping our players at the top level, and it sure seems like that's what we're doing (whether it's true or not, I don't know... but the perception certainly fits).

[Tom Froemming]

 

Being young, cheap and having been effective in brief cameos with the Twins the prior three seasons, it was an easy choice.

 

You would think so. But based on what I heard when I was down there in March, the team was very close to letting him go. If they had kept Duffey in the rotation and sent Nolasco to the bullpen, as they were apparently planning until the last week, Tonkin would've been gone.

 

I think you hit the nail on the head with the workload numbers. Tonkin has been a dominant closer in the minors and now he's been arbitrarily thrown into a long relief role, which is completely foreign to him. The change in usage takes a toll in individual appearances (as your stats illustrate) and even more so over time. He's clearly got nothing left at this point in the season and it's baffling that they even continue to use him.

 

They'll let him go, and he'll join another team that uses him in the right way and turns him into a nice setup man. Painfully predictable. 

You did a great job outlining the odd usage of Tonkin a month ago in your Planning To Fail article. 

 

Right or wrong, after re-reading Seth's Penciling A 2017 Bullpen piece I'm pretty confident Tonkin doesn't make next year's team out of Spring Training. Along with all the current in-house options, I'm sure the new front office will bring in at least a couple more guys who'll compete for spots in the pen. Hopefully if Tonkin is DFA'd he goes unclaimed and can go back to Rochester and work on some things.

[Linus]

Does he, though? In a seven man bullpen (much less an eight man), there's plenty of room for two guys at the bottom of the pen who specialize in throwing multiple innings. The 4-5 guys at the top can specialize in single inning appearances. That doesn't mean they never pitch more than one inning but in Tonkin's case, he's approaching 40% of his appearances being longer than a single inning.

I get your point but it still happens and he's not great against lefties. That makes his optimal window pretty small.

[Linus]

Honestly, this is another head scratching data point about a guy who can be so dominant in AAA but cannot seem to have anything more than short stretches of good play at MLB. Do keep in mind he wasn't bad through the first half of the year. I have to think that there's something going on at the coaching side of things. We shouldn't be redeveloping our players at the top level, and it sure seems like that's what we're doing (whether it's true or not, I don't know... but the perception certainly fits).

The most likely reason for him and others is that he isn't good enough. The hardest jump of all is to the big leagues and many players are weeded at at this level.

[adorduan]

Meh, time to move on.  The article says he has a OPS of .786 during the first 25 pitches.  That's no great shakes.  Dude can't even hold a runner at first.

[nicksaviking]

 

One last Michael Tonkin fun fact: 

 

Out of the 140 qualified relievers heading into today, only 16 have both a better K/9 and a better BB/9 than Tonkin. Of those 16 guys, half have an ERA under 2.00 and only one has an ERA over 4.00 (Justin Wilson of Detroit at 4.28).

 

He's not the only one. Too many pitchers have struggled for reasons that are barely if at all detectable. I know we are currently operating under the assumption that the field staff will be back, but on the off chance that the new suits convince Pohlad to let them start anew with the coaching staff, I'd like to see what the new guys do with guys like Tonkin, May, Chargois, Gibson and Barrios. Their stuff isn't coming close to matching their results, something just doesn't add up.

[HitInAPinch]

69.2 innings, 79 hits, 24 BB, 13 HR's, 40 ER's. 

 

He's 26 years old, so there's still a window of opportunity for Mike Tonkin.  It just should not with the Twins.

There are other options. 

 

The worse I can say for Tonkin:  he chewed up MLB innings so other MiLB RP's can get more innings in there.  Hope that works out  

[gocgo]

Full disclosure, I've never been an big Tonkin fan.  Until today, I didn't look at the numbers.  What I do look at is his pitches and here's what I see.

 

1. A fastball that he throws hard with no movement.  I suspect that he gets it by AAA guys, but big league hitters have seen 96 mph plenty of times.

 

2. A pretty good curve ball that he just doesn't throw consistently for strikes.

 

3. A change up that isn't effective.

 

I suspect that hitters have gotten the word to sit on the fast ball and when they do, they hit it hard.

[Doomtints]

Michael Tonkin ... the guy the Twins added to the 40 man roster way back in 2012, barely seeing MLB action since.  This in spite of his numbers being good enough to play and the Twins pitching getting mercilessly shred during that time period.  

 

Trade him.  The front office has already damaged the relationship with him beyond repair.  Since there is no numerical reason to have kept him down or on the bench for four years, the reason has to be the Twins classic "we don't like his approach or his attitude" rubbish.  Do the kid a favor and let him go to where a team will let him play.

 

Think about it folks.  The current Twins management would have kept Blyleven on the bench or kept him in the minors.  With Blyleven's famously noisy ass and hot-foot shenanigans, the Twins would have never let the guy play.  

Edited September 23, 2016 by Doomtints

[Mike Sixel]

I'm indifferent. He's neither so awesome you need to keep him, nor is he doomed to be bad for sure that you need to cut him. I'd probably not protect him, and see what happens. But, I wouldn't be mad if they just kept him.

[deanlambrecht]

 

They'll let him go, and he'll join another team that uses him in the right way and turns him into a nice setup man. Painfully predictable. 

 

This is what I fear is correct.   I hate to be so pessimistic, but there are only so many gut-punches a fan can take before expecting the kind of outcome Nick describes here.

[Mr. Brooks]

With those k and bb rates, I'm giving him one more year. Or, at least another partial year, until Burdi, or Reed or someone is ready to come up.

If we were are playoff cobtender, I'd probably look to upgrade his spot. But I don't think we are so I'd wait one more year.

[Blake]

 

With those k and bb rates, I'm giving him one more year. Or, at least another partial year, until Burdi, or Reed or someone is ready to come up.
If we were are playoff cobtender, I'd probably look to upgrade his spot. But I don't think we are so I'd wait one more year.

I'm not sure if you're offering opportunity or punishment.....

[h2oface]

He wouldn't have made my staff out of Spring Training. If he can succeed elsewhere, good for him. No tears.

[Thrylos]

 

 

What to do with Michael Tonkin?

 

Easy one.  Same thing with Tommy Milone and Trevor Plouffe:

 

Not tender.

[snepp]

 

Meh, time to move on.  The article says he has a OPS of .786 during the first 25 pitches.  That's no great shakes.  Dude can't even hold a runner at first.

 

You don't have to hold a runner at first if they start at 2nd or 3rd.

 

Silver lining?