Article: Penciling A 2017 Bullpen

[Seth Stohs]

Yesterday, Nick penciled in a starting rotation for 2017. Improving the Minnesota Twins starting rotation should be (and will be) the top priority for whoever the incoming President of Baseball Operations and General Manager are. Aside from Ervin Santana, the starters have been pretty much awful. The bullpen hasn’t been a whole lot better, so today I’m going to see if I can help pencil in a Twins bullpen for 2017.Like Nick, I’m only going to consider internal options for this exercise. In doing so, you will be able to think about which current members of the organization should (or shouldn’t, if you prefer) be in the bullpen in 2018. It can help determine how many free agent arms the team should consider bringing in.

 

In my opinion, these guys should be considered locks for the Twins bullpen in 2017 (again assuming they are not traded):

 

Brandon Kintzler: He signed last December as a minor league free agent after four years of MLB service with the Brewers. After a brief stint in Rochester, Kintzler came up and immediately proved that he’s a big leaguer. The last couple of months, he’s held his own as the team’s closer. It’s clear his ideal role is more of a 7th inning guy with good control of a low-to-mid-90s fastball with a lot of movement. He will have one more year of arbitration, but he shouldn’t make more than $2-2.5 million in 2017. Easy choice to bring back the 32-year-old.

 

Ryan Pressly: In the first three or four months of the season, he was one of the most used, and usually effective, reliever in baseball. It was clear he wasn’t the same pitcher in the second half. However, Pressly showed again that he throws hard and has a strong pitch-mix that can work well out of the bullpen. The 28-year-old will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason, but he shouldn’t make more than about $1.5 million.

 

Taylor Rogers: Rogers was added to the 40-man roster last offseason. He was one of the last players sent to minor league camp in spring. However, within a week of the season opening, he was summoned to the big leagues for his debut. He was sent back down, but it wasn’t long before he was back. The 25-year-old had a very solid rookie season. As he had in the minor leagues, he was great against left-handed hitters.

 

JT Chargois: Maybe “Shaggy’s” name isn’t written in pen yet, but in my mind, it should be. The Twins deserve to be commended how how successfully they brought him back from his Tommy John surgery. He had a terrific minor league campaign, limiting walks better than he has in the past. He not unexpectedly struggled upon his promotions, but in September he appears to have figured some things out. He’ll be 26 throughout 2017. He’s ready.

 

Now let’s say that those four spots of the bullpen are set, that means that there are three (and possibly four) spots that would be considered open. Below are a bunch of pitchers who could factor into those decisions.

 

Glen Perkins: The All-Star closer missed most of the 2016 season and finally had shoulder surgery. All indications are that his rehab is going well, but we can’t state with certainty that he will be ready for spring training, or Opening Day, or when. We do know that when he is deemed ready, he will have a spot in the Twins bullpen.

 

Trevor May: On Wednesday night, Mike Berardino informed us that May learned - finally - that he has a stress fracture in his back, something he suspects has been there for awhile. The talk had already been that he would be given an opportunity to go back to starting. His physically well-being will likely be a huge factor in whether he starts or continues to work out of the bullpen.

 

Michael Tonkin: Out of options, he made the team out of spring training. He’s certainly had moments and continues to get strikeouts but it’s been a rocky first full season for Tonkin.

 

Pat Dean/Ryan O’Rourke/Jason Wheeler/Buddy Boshers/Mason Melotakis/Logan Darnell/David Hurlbut: With Rogers as a lock, in my opinion, there appears to be one more spot for a left-hander. This depends somewhat on Perkins’ status. Also, a long reliever could be left-handed or right-handed. Dean, Wheeler, Darnell and Hurlbut could be long or short relievers. Boshers did a nice job for the Red Wings and Twins in 2016. O’Rourke can certainly get left-handers out and improved against right-handers. Melotakis fits into the left-handed pitcher role, though he has a chance to be a very hard-throwing dominant reliever.

 

Pat Light/Alex Wimmers/Tyler Duffey - These are three pitchers who are currently on the active roster who could factor into the 25-man roster in 2016. Duffey could get another shot to start, or as Nick mentioned yesterday, he could move back to the bullpen where he pitched in college. Light has good stuff, but he hasn’t found success the way Chargois has in September, so he’s more of a question mark right now. Wimmers is a former first-round pick who is finally getting a shot. He’s had his ups and downs in his month with the big club. He’s shown an ability to get strikeouts. He’s walked some. His ERA is inflated by one outing where three runs should have been deemed unearned.

 

Nick Burdi/Trevor Hildenberger/Jake Reed/Alan Busenitz/Zack Jones: There are pitchers who are not on the 40-man roster yet but who all could factor into the Twins bullpen as early as 2017. Burdi impressed at spring training but he lost his 2016 to a bone bruise on his right elbow. Hildenberger was our minor league reliever of the year for the second straight year. He dominated AA and maybe would have seen some big league time. Unfortunately, he was shut down with elbow tendinitis after a great July and is currently rehabbing in Ft. Myers. Jake Reed pitched well, particularly after his late promotion to Rochester. He throws hard and gets a ton of movement. Busenitz came to the Twins from the Angels organization in the Nolasco/Meyer/Santiago trade; he is another hard-thrower who spent time in AA and AAA with the Twins. Zack Jones was the Rule 5 pick of the Brewers. He was hurt in spring training and spent nearly half the season on the DL before coming back to the Twins organization and pitching well in AA.

 

If you’d like, there are several other players who will become free agents after the season’s end. So if you’re in charge, how much time and money would you spend on bringing in bullpen arms? How many of the current pitchers would you say are locks (assuming now trades, and none of these would be completely untouchable)? How many of the young pitchers in the minors would you either want up or not to be blocked?

These are some of the tough questions the Twins front office, whoever that may be, will need to determine.

 

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[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

Anyways, I'd go youth.  Pressley, Tonkin, Chargois, and Rogers for sure.  Maybe Kintzler as a place holder, but I'm definitely leaving room for guys like Light, Burdi, Hildenberger, Melotakis, etc. if one or two of them is lighting up AAA.  Not putting much faith in Perkins/Hughes given their injuries.  May not hurt to have one of those guys around as I do believe that veteran presence means something, but I certainly wouldn't hand them a spot over a deserving kid.  Problem with Hughes though is that he's under contract for 3 more years.  It's a bit easier to dump Perkins on the last year of his deal, but I can certainly understand if management wants to keep Hughes around. 

[Vanimal46]

Pass on Kintzler. 

Locks would be Rogers, Chargois, Pressley. 

Tonkin is iffy. The strikeouts are nice, but he's also prone to give up a big inning. 

The expectation of IP for both Hughes and Perkins should be 0 until further notice. 

 

Hildenberger, Burdi, Melotakis, and Reed have been on our radars for a couple of years now. Maybe 2017 is the year we'll see some of these awesome RP prospects.  

[mazeville]

Indeed, go youth. But Trevor May needs to be a starter. Clearly, this bullpen thing ain't working, and the Twins need starters badly. 

[DocBauer]

I think the team has a chance for a much better bullpen in 2017, which goes a long way to also assisting the rotation, but there are absolutely questions. The biggest problem is still lack of experience. While there are a number of excellent looking prospects arriving or arriving soon, as you look at the names above and break them down, you actually see little to no ML experience time. But there is potential there. Even if half the guys listed never make it, there are still a number of guys to build a quality pen around.

 

Based on what is currently available:

 

Kintzler: In this scenario, I bring him back. He's performed well, and offers somewhat of a viable veteran presence. Can he continue, in a short period of time at least, as an OK closer while others can be auditioned and groomed to assume the closer role? Perhaps. I'd still rather sign a more proven closer for this spot and let Kintzler walk. Not because he couldn't continue to help, But assuming a signed closer would be 30-Ishmael, and I have so many young arms around, I don't think I'd keep him and said FA. But for now, he's in.

 

Perkins: Generally, I thought he did a nice job this season. The tools seem there. I wonder if his rough spots might be due to overuse at various points.

 

Chargois: Very talented. Despite little milb experience, he has absolutely dominated at those levels, and has looked much more comfortable at the ML level after settling in.

 

Rogers: Really looked the part this season, and to me, didn't look lost against RH hitters. I'm not certain if he's a 6-7 inning guy or if the potential is there for LHSU in the 8th,mbut he looks like a keeper.

 

Duffey: As I stated in the rotation post, I haven't given up on him as a starter. Indications are his problems this season were due to fastball command, not his still developing change. But he could be excellent is a middle and long man.

 

That's 5 out of 7 spots filled, and I feel pretty good about each, their talent and potential. (Though again, I'd prefer a more proven veteran closer option over Kintzler)

 

LHRP: The guy I think we all clearly want is Melotakis. And eventually it should be him. But even with a fine year at AA coming back, he still hasn't AAA yet, and it's probably asking too much of him to jump straight to the Twins. Boshers gets a lot of heat, but I think that's more perception than reality; he was signed on the cheap from independent ball so he can't be any good. Other than a couple of poor appearances before the DL and immediately upon his return, he pitched pretty well. O'Rourke is OK if you use him wisely. These 2 should audition, along with invites like Dwan, Wheeler, Albers, etc, to fine that 1 guy you need. (Couple other invites outside the organization would seem smart and plausible)

 

RHRP: Pretty much audition everyone else on the list, though Tonkin probably has the initial leg up. And that's not a terrible thing. He pitched well at times this season, and may be better for his experience. I wonder if his lack of a defined role, even being used as a ling/middle man at times didn't mess with him a bit. The list of RH candidates is long, and even somewhat impressive, and should pay dividends soon. The only problem is a September cup of coffee, only AAA experience, and a few who haven't seen AAA yet. Doesn't mean at least one of them couldn't prove ready out of ST, but Tonkin is the sage bet initially.

 

What's going to be nice is having real, viable options during the 2017 season to swap guys out due to performance or injury.

[ashbury]

An ideal pennant winning pitching staff these days needs three guys who can shut down the opposition in innings 7, 8, and 9. You then want a Loogy and a Roogy for tactical purposes - guys who might not be effective against all batters but have their uses, including mopup. And you need a couple of guys who can go for longer stints and hopefully keep it close - if your starter makes it through the fifth, you can use one in the sixth if need be. With 5 starters, that's a 12-man staff; sometimes teams dabble with 13 but I'm not going to plan on that.

 

Based on that, I'd assign roles as follows

 

Closer - (we don't have anybody)

8th - Chargois

7th - Duffey

ROOGY - (I don't know)

LOOGY - O'Rourke

Long man 1 - Rogers (could be the LOOGY too, but he is a recent starter)

Long man 2 - (I don't know)

 

And that's it. The cupboard is pretty bare for the new PBO/GM, unless or until the new wave of prospects is ready.

 

Notes:

• I have May in my starting rotation so that's why he's not here.
• I'm not counting one iota on Perk and Hughesie.
• Kintzler is just a guy - his ERA is good but his peripherals aren't, and for a righty he isn't that good against righties, so I have trouble saying what his role is on a good team.
• Pressly has the same issue against righties, and he's just basically so hittable, that at this point in his career he's becoming roster filler.
• Tonkin is a disappointment.
• I can't see a role for Milone either as a starter or a reliever.
• Boshers, Darnell, Dean, Albers, all are filler, or less.

I'm assuming Light has minor league options, and I'd stash him at AAA. (Edit: ditto Wimmers, Melotakis - and Landa and Rosario somewhere below.) None of the guys currently not yet on the 40-man strike me as ready to kick the door in for entry, quite yet.

 

Again, I'm talking about a staff for a good team. The 2017 Twins won't be good, so I don't basically care if any of these current pitchers I'm dismissing are retained for another year - and relievers are always capable of putting together a surprise season and looking good, so let them try, and we can reevaluate a year from now.

 

I'm frustrated, borderline depressed on this topic, and like I said, the new PBO/GM really have their work cut out for them to make anything out of this shambles. Nobody but Chargois and maybe Duffey would be worth anything in trade, and for good reason, so it's not like a wheeler-dealer could make something happen from the existing pieces. Maaaaybe, a different pitching coach can make something out of a couple of the pieces I am dismissing, such as Pressly or Tonkin.

 

If this is a classroom, I get an Incomplete. I realize this isn't a plan. It's a surrender.

[hybridbear]

I really like the idea of Duffey to the bullpen and May back to the starting rotation. I hope that happens.

[Blackjack]

Ryan always built a bullpen by going to the scrap heap, signing 3-5 guys that were coming off of injuries, bad years, etc. and bringing them all into spring training, seeing if any would stick. It will be interesting to see how the new GM/front office guys builds a bullpen.

[Doomtints]

Duffy to the pen is a good idea.

 

 The rest of these guys ... eh ...

[Joe A. Preusser]

Chargois

Rogers

Presley

Duffy

Tonkin

1 FA or trade back end piece to close.

1 promotion for Light, Reed, or whomever is next up.

 

That has the potential to be a power pen. When Tonkin is probably your worst reliever, your pen is an area of strength.

 

Now go get a top tier catcher, roll with Nick's starting 5, and let the offense do what the offense will do.

[ashbury]

Ryan always built a bullpen by going to the scrap heap, signing 3-5 guys that were coming off of injuries, bad years, etc. and bringing them all into spring training, seeing if any would stick. It will be interesting to see how the new GM/front office guys builds a bullpen.

You can do that to fill four of the spots I named in my so-called plan. I applaud Ryan's ability to do that.

 

It can't be plan A, for the three critical spots on the relief staff. And that's how it's worked out, too many years. We've had Perk, and then, uh, er, ummm... guys.

[Old Twins Cap]

Duffey somewhat risky out of the pen, because of being a curve ball pitcher.  Just unusual is all.  And Wimmers, not getting any love here.  I like the movement on his pitches.

[Mike Sixel]

Wow, this is a tough one.......

 

Locks for me:

Chargois

Rogers

 

Older guys I'd keep around, probably, though with short leashes:

Kintzler

Pressley

 

Guys I think should move up from the minors and be semi locks:

Hildenberger

Reed

 

I'd consider having Wimmers be the long guy, but frankly, not sure why that isn't Milone's job....

Edited September 22, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[Gagne Fan]

DJ Baxendale should get a look in Spring Training and an opportunity some time in 2017.

This guys numbers were lights out in AAA and somehow mediocre results by Wimmers, Dean and Albers were rewarded instead.

Should have been called up before Sept 1...just as Seth pointed out that Bax had every right to be upset when Wimmers was called up.

Bax had a 1.1 era while Wimmers had a 3.5

Don't even get me started with Dean/Albers 5+ era's in Rochester. Then somehow he doesn't even get a Sept 1 call.

In typical Twins fashion, we will probably loose this guy in the Rule 5 Draft because we protected non-prospects like Dean, Albers, Shaffer and Beresford

[clutterheart]

2017 Closer:  Johnny Papelbon

World Series here we come

[sthpstm]

Hard to disagree with the general sentiment here.  

Assuming Baxendale's move to the bullpen was permanent, I see no reason he shouldn't be a near lock. He's had plenty of minors experience and likely would have moved quickly if he wasn't starting.

So, Kintzler (you need a little experience in this pen/won't cost much), Chargois, Rogers, Boshers (outside of ERA, his numbers are solid), Baxendale, Duffey, and two of Pressley, Wimmers, Light, Dean, Hildenberger.

And since we're not signing a top FA, I wouldn't do too much in the way of FA signings as we should have plenty of young depth behind these.

[Mike Sixel]

Can't believe I forgot Baxendale!

[bird]

Play the numbers game with what you got, I say. For  7 spots, we have over 25 players mentioned here (I'll mention Van Steensel and Peterson to avoid lying) who have thrown a baseball at AA and above. Granted, some of the lesser talents among them (O'Rourke, Dean?) have had their cups of coffee with (cough) mixed results.

 

Only 1 out of 4 of these guys needs to step up and give us something. A couple already have. I'd have no reservation in taking the risk that we can field a MLB-quality bullpen from this group, but with one very important caveat: which of these guys has a chance to be a shutdown reliever? We can plug in the Kintzlers for now, but we need three better than him to become a contending team. I don't see a lot of options for that among this group, and even those guys are unproven. Burdi, Chargois, and who else?

[John Kelsey]

Pressly

Rogers

Chargois

Hildenberger

Baxendale

Duffey

Melotakis

[Vanimal46]

I would still look to FA and bring in 2-3 other arms to compete for a bullpen spot. I see a few on the list that I would not tender and let them go:

Kintzler
Boshers

O' Rourke

1 or 2 of Darnell / Dean / Wheeler
 

[Seth Stohs]

Not sure how Baxendale would fit into the "Lock" category. He'd fit into the Burdi/Hildy/Reed category for me. I would have liked to see him come up, but it didn't bother me in the least when Wimmers got called up. Much bigger decision to make on him since he's a free agent at the end of the World Series if he hadn't been brought up. At least he got an opportunity, which is is very appreciative of. The decision on Baxendale is whether or not to add him to the 40 man roster in November, and that's far from a given. 

 

I just have a hard time saying anyone who has no big league experience should be a "lock." That just doesn't make sense to me. 

 

Hildenberger should be given a legit shot in spring training, but so much of that depends on his elbow situation.

 

Melotakis was good in his return. The Twins didn't pitch him more than one inning. He didn't pitch on back-to-back days. He still ended up on the DL a couple of times for additional rest. That's all positive. Let's not think that he suddenly jumps into the big leagues because 1.) AAA time won't hurt him, and 2.) at least early, they'll want to test out a few things first. Can he pitch more than one inning? Can he pitch on back-to-back days. Those were the considerations with Chargois. You can control that all in AAA. As we've seen with Chargois in the big leagues, it's all-hands-on-deck, so he's pitched more than 2 innings once or twice, and back-to-back games often. He likely woudln't have been ready for that earlier in the season and certainly not in 2015. I'm on board with the Twins plans for Chargois now that I understand it and see how it changes in the big leagues, and I"m on board with them doing the same with Melotakis. 

 

Pressly turns 28 in December. He's not old! Unless you're like 18.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't get the dislike of Tonkin.  he's spent 1 year in the pen minus a few Chargois type opportunities over the last few seasons.  The Ks are there, as are the minor league results.  I'd give him more than this year to work things out...  If it comes to the point where he's blocking someone, then yes... but we aren't there yet. 

[HitInAPinch]

So how many spots are we talking about here?  7?

 

There's been improvement from the younger relievers as they got past the call-up jitters.  The same will happen next season.

 

Closer: Kintzler, until someone else steps up.

Short:  Pressely, Chargois, Rogers

Middle:  O'Rourke + Wimmer,

Long:  Berrios, Duffey

 

If everything goes well, Chargois + Rogers step into split closer roll.  Add 1 MiLB pitcher

Berrios and Duffey get some short, low pressure success and deemed ready for starter duties.  Add 2 MiLB pitchers.

 

IDK:  I seem to be developing an entire staff    

 

[TheLeviathan]

Chargois, Tonkin, Rogers, Duffey, Pressley and prayers.  Lots of prayers.

[FunnyPenguin]

It might just be me, but I have a feeling that Light could become a stud in our bullpen

[jimmer]

 

It might just be me, but I have a feeling that Light could become a stud in our bullpen

Is that the guy who throws a wild pitch on a pitch out during an intentional walk?

[adjacent]

Judging by the game today, nobody seems to be interested in having a job next year. Oh, boy!

[big dog]

Yeah, I've been down on Light and Tonkin lately.  Today didn't help me fight that one bit.  I'd love to do better than those two.  I don't think it would be all that hard, either.

[old nurse]

If the new Grand Poobah of the club thinks the first and second year position players are going to take a step forward this year then it would be likely that 2 of the slots in the bullpen would be FA closer, FA set up guy.   The  evaluation process might lead to the necessity of  one more year of development/mediocre play. That should lead to a fairly young bullpen. 

[DocBauer]

Since I already stayed on topic once, I just can't help but also stray once and offer up thoughts outside of just what's available.

 

Building a strong bullpen to help the rotation, and you know, actually win games, is a bug and important step. But also don't want to ignore the prospects and just go out and buy a veteran bullpen for our rebuilding club.

 

But I would like to see someone signed to come in and assume the closer role. Maybe a 1 year make good/rebound, or similar. This means Kintzler is gone. I'd also take a couple flyers out for a lefty or two, preferably 30yo or less, maybe coming off injury or a down year and audition them.

 

FA Closer

Perkins=7th & 8th inning

Chargois=7th & 8th inning

?/open audition=6th inning

Duffey=long & middle and spot start

Rogers=6th thru 8th inning as needed

?/open audition=LOOGY-middle-6th inning

 

That's 5 spots out of 7 mostly spoken for. There are multiple RH and a few LH options for the open audition spots. There is also no pressure or rush for some guys to jump straight from AA, unless they flat out earn it.

 

This a pen I could potentially feel pretty good about, while being loaded at Rochester for call ups.