Stop What You Are Doing And Watch Byron Buxton

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

First of all, over the last 14 days Buxton has hit .214/.283/.500 (Per Fangraphs).

 

I'll take the power and process now over what he was doing prior to September.

 

In regards to Buxton, specifically, I agree. We haven't had a full season of him hitting in order to make a large enough judgement. Right now, I fully embrace his process and the hitter he has become -- the guy who is going to take a full hack with 2-strikes instead of just trying to make contact. He still strikes out a ton but that will hopefully subside over time. Right now, this is a big positive for his confidence to take into the offseason.

Agree, I have commented on Buxton extensively this season on here and Fnagraphs articles of what approach, stance, leg kick, and overall swing I felt he should incorporate in great detail. He seems to have begun to mirror my wishes in most of these catagories for the most part. I also explained why....basically, his outcomes are matching what I felt or hoped he would, if he made those changes to his swing, stance, and approach.

[jimmer]

 

Yup, plus an improved process at the plate and there's reason to be optimistic about his future. 

Yeah, I am optimistic about his future, but the point is that although his last 70 PAs show a line of ..297/.348/.672/, his line in his last 14 days, 43 PA (which are part of the 70 PA) is .186/.262/.395.  

 

So, like I said, he had a very good first week back.  Like a ridiculous first week back. Like 4 HR, 4 doubles, and 4 singles in 27 PA. As we look at the two stat lines above, we can see how that first week back effected a 70 PA sample size.

 

His approach does look better, but we are allowed to be realistic about a short sample size line that gets quoted, yeah?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Also, no SB's since back, right? Guessing this is a health thing or not wanting to lose any more development time, but maybe he will just never be a high volume SB guy?

Too early to say. I haven't dug into how/where his singles/walks came into play but just over half of Buxton's hits have gone for extra bases since his return to Minnesota.

 

Guys aren't going to steal a ton of bases if they're starting out on second, third, or trotting around the bases after a home run.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Too early to say. I haven't dug into how/where his singles/walks came into play but just over half of Buxton's hits have gone for extra bases since his return to Minnesota.

 

Guys aren't going to steal a ton of bases if they're starting out on second, third, or trotting around the bases after a home run.

Yeah, I was kinda thinking that too, but if he hasn't stolen a single base since back leads me to believe that they are just trying to do everything to keep him healthy and developing at the plate right now.

[Loosey]

 

Look, this wasn't meant to be a discussion about Buxton's current status as a hitter and that stat line wasn't offered to say BUXTON'S TURNED A CORNER EVERYONE BUY HIS JERSEY AND PRINT MVP AWARDS. Since we're 

Great, so now I have to go return my jersey and ask the printer for refund?

[Monkeypaws]

After today's 9-2 loss.

 

batting averages

 

Sano .236

Kepler .234

Buxton .221

 

Maybe he'll catch them both ....

[Blake]

 

What's wrong about with getting a little excited about Buxton since his return? I mean, is it not allowed? You can see the big picture and  allow yourself a bit of joy at the same time, it's ok.

You'll be singing a different tune in about 10 weeks. What with being Way Up North and all rather than just Up North.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Huh. SSS abounds and all that but here is Buxton's isoD by month:

 

April: 49 PAs, .052 isoD

May: 4 PAs, too SSS

June: 93 PAs, .030 isoD

July: 66 PAs, .092 isoD

August: 6 PAs, too SSS

September: 77 PAs, .055 isoD

 

Not a huge split there but Buxton has quietly put together a .070 isoD over his past 149 PAs since the beginning of July.

 

Compare that to his 2015 season, which was 139 PAs and an .041 isoD.

 

Hard to get a real read on those numbers but it's possible Buxton is starting to identify pitches a bit more frequently and lays off them on occasion.

 

The strikeouts haven't changed noticeably, unfortunately.

[ashbury]

Striking out like a man instead of an overmatched rookie is a welcome improvement.

[Linus]

To me it's not about leg kicks and toe taps it's about pitch recognition. Since he's been back he's done a much better job swinging at strikes but not going out of the zone.

[Parker Hageman]

 

To me it's not about leg kicks and toe taps it's about pitch recognition. Since he's been back he's done a much better job swinging at strikes but not going out of the zone.

 

He's actually chasing more ooz pitches in September. It's more of being aggressive in hitter's counts -- something he failed at earlier in the year. 

[twinssporto]

 

If he could just hit .297/.348/.672 for the next decade, I'd be pretty happy.

I'll be happy if he can just do it next year for the entire season.

[h2oface]

It seems that the article, like talking about a no hitter in progress, has jinxed Buxton's hot spell return. I seem to remember he started out hot a couple of the previous returns from Rochester, too. Here's to a hot last 5 games of the season. But don't watch. Maybe too many eyes brings back the strikeout demons.

[Monkeypaws]

 

It seems that the article, like talking about a no hitter in progress, has jinxed Buxton's hot spell return. I seem to remember he started out hot a couple of the previous returns from Rochester, too. Here's to a hot last 5 games of the season. But don't watch. Maybe too many eyes brings back the strikeout demons.

 

He continues to get on base - his defense is elite. Hitting .290ish for the month. He has off nights, but he has come miles from where he was in spring. Next year gonna be fun methinks.

[Old Twins Cap]

I hope Buxton figures things out.  He, more than anyone, even Sano, is the key to the Twins becoming respectable.

 

What worries me most, is not necessarily the strikeouts, especially now that he is showing some power.  It's the lack of contact on pitches that are in the zone and hittable by most MLB hitters.

 

Buxton misses a lot of easy balls right now.  That's either very good or very bad news.  And I'm not sure which way that will go.

[Doomtints]

I agree that it's not about leg kicks or whatever.  If you look at his face and how he swings, it doesn't seem like he can even see the ball a lot of the time.  

 

I am clinging to the idea that he is just nervous and trying to meet the very high expectations for him.  But forgetting about all that he looks truly lost.  I hope he figures it out.  His star defensive plays are great but he needs to hit to have a major league career.  

[Parker Hageman]

I agree that it's not about leg kicks or whatever.  If you look at his face and how he swings, it doesn't seem like he can even see the ball a lot of the time.

 

 

His ability to drive the ball is directly correlated to the intent he puts into the swing, particularly with his lower half/hips, which is generated by his leg kick. His seven HRs in September are a product of that. So, yes, that part of his game is about the leg kicks or whatever. 

 

Second, I wholly agree that there is a mental part of his game that needs to be finalized. No question. It seems (haven't checked the data yet) that Buxton has allowed the count to slip into pitcher's counts more frequently in this latter portion of the month and pitchers are throwing him a few more secondary pitches in hitter's counts. 

 

 

[h2oface]

One of the things I would like to stop what I am doing and watch Buxton do IS STEAL BASES! He is 10/12 this season, and 12/16 career. Molitor is supposed to be a base stealing wiz. One would think he could be way more influential in getting Buxton stealing bases and using this wonderous speed he is blessed with, but Buxton rarely even attempts to steal. Nunez burried Buxton, and he isn't really that fast! It is a shame that Buxton has shown very little growth stealing.

[DaveW]

Buxton is for real at this point, another great game tonight all around. He should be the 2017 lead off hitter from opening day until the last game of the season. Bat Dozier and Sano behind him to give him some protection.

[twinsnorth49]

One of the things I would like to stop what I am doing and watch Buxton do IS STEAL BASES! He is 10/12 this season, and 12/16 career. Molitor is supposed to be a base stealing wiz. One would think he could be way more influential in getting Buxton stealing bases and using this wonderous speed he is blessed with, but Buxton rarely even attempts to steal. Nunez burried Buxton, and he isn't really that fast! It is a shame that Buxton has shown very little growth stealing.

Why steal? He'll just score from first on a single anyway .

[h2oface]

Why steal? He'll just score from first on a single anyway .

Ha. Definitely fun to see him run. The more runnin' the more cunnin' the more funnin'. Pitchers trying to pick him off, catchers trying to throw him out. Umpires trying to call it right. Challenge and mind games. Run Byron run.

[Platoon]

Unbelievable catch. Makes me wonder how he could loaf his way to a fly ball and 3 hop a throw to 3rd and not get Miggy.

He has done this other times. If you watch him, it seems he needs to see the guy going before he sets up and throws, v assuming the guy is going and just getting into the throw and letting the baseman or cutoff man handle it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Buxton has 456 career PAs. He has drawn just 26 walks in that time.

 

In his past 166 PAs, has has drawn 14 of those walks.

 

When the season started, I said I expected Buxton to scuffle for awhile and then finish strong, getting his OPS somewhere around .700 on the season.

 

Well, I was kinda right. I didn't expect either the horrible start or the All-Star finish but currently, his OPS sits at .687.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Oh, and extend Buxton's numbers to a full season and he's roughly a 2.5 fWAR player. That's average starter material from a 22 year old player.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Oh, and extend Buxton's numbers to a full season and he's roughly a 2.5 fWAR player. That's average starter material from a 22 year old player.

 

That's nice, but they need him to be elite, and like it or not, the game is being won by young ,elite, players mostly (assuming you care more about the regular season than a random playoff). It's nice to see these steps forward, and I maintain hope.

[Vanimal46]

 

Buxton has 456 career PAs. He has drawn just 26 walks in that time.

 

In his past 166 PAs, has has drawn 14 of those walks.

 

When the season started, I said I expected Buxton to scuffle for awhile and then finish strong, getting his OPS somewhere around .700 on the season.

 

Well, I was kinda right. I didn't expect either the horrible start or the All-Star finish but currently, his OPS sits at .687.

For his first full season in the majors, I kind of expected an OPS around there. He's on the right track. Next season I hope he continues the progression and gets to the .725-.750 level... And by 24-25 he starts a run of .800+ OPS. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's nice, but they need him to be elite, and like it or not, the game is being won by young ,elite, players mostly (assuming you care more about the regular season than a random playoff). It's nice to see these steps forward, and I maintain hope.

Sure, they need him to be elite but we need to remember the guy couldn't legally drink alcohol 22 months ago.

 

Just because other players jumped all over MLB pitching at age 22-23 doesn't mean we should expect that of all players. It's an unreasonable standard to hold a prospect.

[Parker Hageman]

 

One of the things I would like to stop what I am doing and watch Buxton do IS STEAL BASES! He is 10/12 this season, and 12/16 career. Molitor is supposed to be a base stealing wiz. One would think he could be way more influential in getting Buxton stealing bases and using this wonderous speed he is blessed with, but Buxton rarely even attempts to steal. Nunez burried Buxton, and he isn't really that fast! It is a shame that Buxton has shown very little growth stealing.

 

Stealing has a lot less to do with speed than people think. Obviously speed is a huge component but getting reads and jumps takes experience. Brian Dozier/Eduardo Nunez are both really good at that. Eduardo Escobar -- who is pretty quick -- is just 7-for-16 in his entire career. The Twins were absolutely perplexed as to why they couldn't get him to even attempt to steal. 

 

I would like to think Buxton will catch on but who knows. 

 

 

[DaveW]

 

That's nice, but they need him to be elite, and like it or not, the game is being won by young ,elite, players mostly (assuming you care more about the regular season than a random playoff). It's nice to see these steps forward, and I maintain hope.

If you extend his number since his call up he is a 7-8 WAR player. Happy?

[jsimssd72]

 

Buxton over the past 14 days:  .184/.262/.395.

 

People gotta stop grabbing these tiny sample sizes for Buxton and then acting disappointed when the full sample size settles in.  He was good for 1 week after he came back.

 

His defense is great but he needs to hit.  This is nothing new.

Hey he is hitting .667 over his last game.   ~