Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation

[TheLeviathan]

 

Doesn't mean it will be offered in return--regardless of whether it is off season or deadline.  Everyone will have a different definition of fair value.

 

You're missing the point.  None of us advising the team to make trades or moves are advising them to take bad deals.  I'm not assuming your "trade Ervin in July" opinion means you'd take 12 day old leftovers for him.  I assume you mean to deal him for good value then.

 

Make the same assumption of others.  The fact this has had to be stated about 12 times on this thread is depressing.  

[DocBauer]

My belief, guess and opinion is Santana should be shopped...especially due to such a depressing FA market...but will have greater value come July for a contending team. Further, by July, Gonsalves, Mejia or an unexpectedly well recovered Hughes may/should be ready.

 

The Dozier move makes sense, even though I don't want to lose him. But assuming we can find a true, high end ML SP to plug in right away, it makes sense. Polanco plays 2B. But my concern then becomes SS. I like Escobar and everything he showed us in '14 and '15, but if we're going to lose BD's offense, in an attempt to fix the pitching staff, I think Escobar should remain a quality reserve and a true, high end defensive SS should be brought on board.

 

Problem is, I'm not sure who to target there.

[gocgo]

 

My belief, guess and opinion is Santana should be shopped...especially due to such a depressing FA market...but will have greater value come July for a contending team. Further, by July, Gonsalves, Mejia or an unexpectedly well recovered Hughes may/should be ready.

The Dozier move makes sense, even though I don't want to lose him. But assuming we can find a true, high end ML SP to plug in right away, it makes sense. Polanco plays 2B. But my concern then becomes SS. I like Escobar and everything he showed us in '14 and '15, but if we're going to lose BD's offense, in an attempt to fix the pitching staff, I think Escobar should remain a quality reserve and a true, high end defensive SS should be brought on board.

Problem is, I'm not sure who to target there.

The lack of a FA market drags down Dozier's value too.  How do you trade for a quality starting pitcher with so few on the market?  It's not like another team can just plug someone else in.  Pitching is gold and teams want to hang on to it.

[Kwak]

Draft the best college starting pitcher projected. They are often 21-22 years old. Draft him in '17, a September '18 cup-of-coffee, and then seriously compete for a starting job for '19 as a 23 or 24 year-old. that's plenty old enough to challenge the guy. Plus, the Twins get three option years if he struggles. Jettison the old "step-at-a-year progression" and trust in the original evaluation that you drafted correctly. If he fails, he fails. It hasn't been proved that 5 years in the minors is required for top talent to develop.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

My belief, guess and opinion is Santana should be shopped...especially due to such a depressing FA market...but will have greater value come July for a contending team. Further, by July, Gonsalves, Mejia or an unexpectedly well recovered Hughes may/should be ready.

The Dozier move makes sense, even though I don't want to lose him. But assuming we can find a true, high end ML SP to plug in right away, it makes sense. Polanco plays 2B. But my concern then becomes SS. I like Escobar and everything he showed us in '14 and '15, but if we're going to lose BD's offense, in an attempt to fix the pitching staff, I think Escobar should remain a quality reserve and a true, high end defensive SS should be brought on board.

Problem is, I'm not sure who to target there.

Zack Cozart could be had from Cincinnati. He would fill that elite defensive shortstop role very well.

[DocBauer]

Zack Cozart could be had from Cincinnati. He would fill that elite defensive shortstop role very well.

Read that in another post. I could be in favor of him if the cost of a trade wasn't expensive, and if we could set ourselves up for a 2nd year or option year.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I think we would have to sign Cozart for 2018 ongoing (his contract is up after 2017.) He is coming off an injury filled 2016, and even though his first half was really good into and after the all star break, Cincinnati may not want to trade when his value is at his lowest. I know the Mariners almost got him at the deadline for what was rumored a top 7 pick of theirs (their system is not highly regarded, to say the least) so if it took a top 8 or 10 prospect from the Twins (think maybe Adalberto Mejia?) I'd think about it with the knowledge we are strongly increasing our infield defense for 2017.

[dxpavelka]

 

You're missing the point.  None of us advising the team to make trades or moves are advising them to take bad deals.  I'm not assuming your "trade Ervin in July" opinion means you'd take 12 day old leftovers for him.  I assume you mean to deal him for good value then.

 

Make the same assumption of others.  The fact this has had to be stated about 12 times on this thread is depressing.  

Not sure where you ever got the idea I had a "trade Ervin in July" opinion.  I've never stated such an opinion.  I don't even have a "trade Ervin" opinion.  All I have ever advocated for is that the new FO make the best possible decisions and have never stated a preference for any particular move to be made in July OR in the off season.  As far as Santana goes, I'm of the opinion that if this team can take a 25 game downturn from 2015 to 2016 there's no reason that it can't take a 25 game upturn from 2016 to 2017 and actually be competitive again in 2018 and if NOT trading Santana gives us a better chance of that than I'm not even in the camp that we have any need to move him.  The new FO needs to evaluate any and all aspects of this organization and make it's conclusions and act upon those conclusions and not give a damn what you, I, or any other folks who don't get paid to make those decisions think.

[TheLeviathan]

 

 The new FO needs to evaluate any and all aspects of this organization and make it's conclusions and act upon those conclusions and not give a damn what you, I, or any other folks who don't get paid to make those decisions think.

 

Again, something that need not be stated.  No one here is under any delusions that the Twins FO is perusing the board for ideas.  We're all stating opinions.  And all stating opinions that we can assume mean the most reasonable thing.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Berrios should be here because he has nothing less to accomplish in AAA?  This is MLB folks, it's not about how good we are at the AAA level that should get us into MLB.  If we can't produce at the MLB level, there is somewhere else for us to be.  I think he'll be a good starter at some point, but he's proved a few times that it ain't here yet.  We are so entrenched into "Loserville USA" that we're totally willing to give up wins to give a kid experience at the big league level and it's been costing us BIG in the W/L column.  Whoever comes in to make personnel decisions has got their hands full because the cupboard is empty.  We can't settle for mediocrity.  Berrios is not mlb ready right now and shouldn't be considered.  We need to find good pitching elsewhere.  The sad part is that he is probably the 3rd or 4th best option at this point.  RESET.

It's called a learning curve, and whether it's baseball or some other profession, these types of things always exist when you put someone in a harder (or different) role than what they were doing previously.  Refusing to show patience through said curve and have a dedication to development is the surest way to see your talent go (and have success) somewhere else.

 

Berrios is probably the closest thing we have in the high minors that is both MLB ready and is likely to have a career that will be better than the average starter. You need to be patient with this b/c while he's shown that he's got little to learn in AAA, he clearly has plenty to learn in MLB.  This is not a pitcher you plan on leaving in Rochester to start next year. This is a guy who you give a shot to.  He has options if needed, but I'd like to hope that with some different coaches and an offseason to focus on improvements that he can prove himself in 2017.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

You're missing the point.  None of us advising the team to make trades or moves are advising them to take bad deals.  I'm not assuming your "trade Ervin in July" opinion means you'd take 12 day old leftovers for him.  I assume you mean to deal him for good value then.

 

Make the same assumption of others.  The fact this has had to be stated about 12 times on this thread is depressing.  

 

You're right.  It's getting old. I'm with you on Ervin, for good value, I'd move him.  I'd probably move BD a bit quicker, but I can certainly understand the motivation to move Santana as well.

 

Me thinks the real reason it needs to be said is b/c all of the second guessing on these forums about the trades that didn't happen.  I mean... the Angels were really offering Trout for Plouffe this offseason, right?

 

_{(yes, I'm exaggerating... just trying to prove a point)}

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Zack Cozart could be had from Cincinnati. He would fill that elite defensive shortstop role very well.

 

I'd rather just promote Engelb Vielma if that's what you want.  I'm not a fan of the all glove no bat SS.  I'd rather just roll with Escobar.  Don't have a problem with a guy like Vielma as a defensive replacement, but am a bit too jaded by history to think that this is how it would work.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

My belief, guess and opinion is Santana should be shopped...especially due to such a depressing FA market...but will have greater value come July for a contending team. Further, by July, Gonsalves, Mejia or an unexpectedly well recovered Hughes may/should be ready.

 

 

I think the big issue here is risk that gets assumed waiting till July.  A lot can happen between now and July, and in Santana's case, that rehabbed UCL in particular is a potential time bomb, not to mention that over his career he's definitely spent his fair amount of time on the DL. 

 

I'm not against keeping him.  I'm not against trading him. I don't, however, believe that Ervin's value will be that much higher come the trade deadline next year than it will be this offseason, and that lack of FA pitching is why.  I do think there may be merit in getting an MLB ready higher ceiling pitching prospect for BD, and then trading Santana for something else (you won't get MLB ready pitching for him, but could potentially get that catcher or some higher ceiling lower minors guys).  2018 has a lot of big name pitchers hitting FA...  You can use 2017 to evaluate guys like Berrios, Mejia, May, Duffey, Gibson, new guy, and potentially guys like Gonsalves, Jay, and Stewart.  Then you use 2018 for the big splash to fill in those gaps a bit and start shedding off or moving to the pen the pieces that don't fit.

 

My big issue with the sell high thing is that the Twins already have the hitting core here, most of whom are already producing. If this team is going to contend sooner than later, they need to deal with starting pitching sooner than later as well as make sure guys like Sano, Polanco, Escobar, and Kepler are focusing on improving their defense.

[DocBauer]

You're right of course, there is no guarantee Santana will have greater trade value next July. I guess my point is, while there is always some risk involved, I saw nothing from Santana this season to expect sudden regression or disappointment next year. Therefore, IMO, his trade value could/should be at a maintainable level. And his value to the Twins would be two-fold: a quality starter to help lead the rotation while others develop at Rochester, (Gonsalves and Mejia) or possibly rehab (Hughes).

 

I liked what we saw out of May in 2015, his stuff, potential and progress. I still maintain he should have stayed in the rotation and we have,nun fortunately, lost development time with him. But I'm excited for him to be a starter again as well as still having faith in Berrios. I'm also in the pro Gibson camp and still believe he hasn't hit his ceiling yet. Can a new pitching coach get him there?

 

Not a huge fan of Santiago, but I've come around on him and think he should be kept for now. He's LH,under 30yo, has had an OK career to this point, and has looked much better since they just left him alone instead of trying to remake him. Should the team trade for a high end SP via a Dozier trade, the squeeze could be on somewhat. But it would be a good problem to have, and the Twins could, potentially, have a mid season trade asset or two from their rotation. I know that sounds crazy to say, but it's very possible.

[TheLeviathan]

 

You're right of course, there is no guarantee Santana will have greater trade value next July. I guess my point is, while there is always some risk involved, I saw nothing from Santana this season to expect sudden regression or disappointment next year. Therefore, IMO, his trade value could/should be at a maintainable level. And his value to the Twins would be two-fold: a quality starter to help lead the rotation while others develop at Rochester, (Gonsalves and Mejia) or possibly rehab (Hughes).

 

Sudden regression wouldn't be very sudden if you had lots of signs it was coming,

 

I dno't think Santana will suddenly regress in 2017, but by 2018 we could be talking about a significantly less valuable performer.