Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation

[Willihammer]

What I'd do- shift the #5-6 starters to the pen. Hughes, Gibson, Milone, and Duffey.

 

Santana, Santiago, Berrios, and two open spots in the rotation.

 

Shop Pressly, May, Chargois, Kitzler, Light, etc for starting pitching.

[Winston Smith]

This is sad!

[Rosterman]

Yeah, I would pencil in Mejia and Gonsalves and even Stewart. It won't be pretty, but you have to see what you have at some point. I would put Kyle Gibson on a very short leash. I doubt that Hughes will start the season strong.

 

Santana could be trade bait, but you will probably get prospects and maybe a promising starter a year away.

 

Santiago is the question. Is he worth $8 million, or do they want to put those dollars in their pocket.

 

Sadly, the Twins will dumpster dive and/or sign a rebuilding project for a year contract. Instead, they should just bite the bullet and let the rookies learn on the job, at this point. Some shuffling between majors and minors.

 

Why they didn't add Wheeler to the 40-man and give him some major league face time is beyond me at this point. 

 

I don't see Albers or Dean staying on the 40-man. And I wish they would try Duffey in long relief, 4-5 appearances before the season ends to see if he can pitch more than one inning out of the pen.

 

May will have to build up to 175 innings next year. So he could also be a slow starter.

 

So, right now, it doesn't look good.

[gocgo]

 

I believe I saw absinthe suggested in yesterday's game thread.

Billy Beane does absinthe?

[Nick Nelson]

Good comments so far. I'll just say a couple of things:

 

1) Not a fan of the "let them compete in spring training approach." The Twins have made bad roster decisions too many times in the past by making judgments on the basis of specious data gathered over a month of exhibition games. They need a firm plan going into camp, which was the idea behind this thought exercise.

 

2) Giving up on players like Gibson after one bad year is how teams make huge mistakes that haunt them down the line. It's short-sighted and reactionary. He's a talented pitcher who had a bad season. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

People calling to trade Santana are being short sighted I think. What I would like to see is Santana and Santiago followed by youth including Berrios and the next two who stand out in spring training. I agree with moving Duffy to the pen and giving May a real crack at the rotation, not the window dressing chance he got this year. I, for one, want Santana around as a veteran presence for the young guys. Also, I don't think we would get good value back for him in the off season. We may however, get value for him at the trade deadline. As for Gibson, I am hopeful for a new coaching voice that can unlock his potential, but at his age that seems to be a door quickly closing. Maybe he leaves as part of a package deal for prospects?

 

Short sighted? I'd say long sighted. They aren't winning next year, why keep him around, if they can get a much younger player that MIGHT be good?

[Nick Nelson]

 

Santiago has only sucked in his brief Twins career. He is a 103 ERA+ starter overall. The same or better than Ervin Santana, Matt Shoemaker, Jake Odorizzi, Jeremy Hellickson, Ian Kennedy, etc.

I've seen some people suggest that the Twins should drop Santiago, but then go find a one-year plug in free agency. Anyone who believes they're going to find a better starter on a more favorable deal in FA is kidding themselves. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Who needs starting pitching?  Let's be creative here.  We go with a 13 man rotation.  Everyone throws one inning a day.  That's right.  You throw one inning just like a little league rec team looking for anyone that can throw it across the plate.  If you fail miserably, you get the next day off or get shipped down to the minors and we bring up the next in line.  You gotta ask yourself - what would Billy Beane do?

 

I have previously suggested something similar, for real.

 

1. Santana starts

2. Berrios starts

 

3-5.....start guys for 1-2 times thru the rotation, then bring in the next guys, then the next guys. Rotate people up and down from AAA every few weeks. Duffey for 9-18 hitters, then May, then regular bullpen.

 

These guys would go every 3-4 days, and you'd need about 8 of them. That's why you'd need to rotate thru AAA.....

[Steve Penz]

As much as I love these speculations for next year's roster, my hope is that it will look a lot different by then. I am excited for a new FO to come in a and begin executing their plan for the future. Using the same dudes and expecting new results won't work.

[nicksaviking]

 

The way to improve next year's rotation is to keep this year's rotation?

 

I agree. We wouldn't need a new GM to ride with those options.

 

People like to say you don't change just for the sake of changing. In this case I think you do. Blow it up, try different pieces and see what sticks until you get it right.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I've seen some people suggest that the Twins should drop Santiago, but then go find a one-year plug in free agency. Anyone who believes they're going to find a better starter on a more favorable deal in FA is kidding themselves. 

I agree you shouldn't count on getting a FA better or equal to him, but you could take a really cheap flyer on someone, without relying on them. My solution was to hedge bets between Mejia/Hughes and someone like Brett Anderson if he's even remotely healthy, who could be taken on a pretty cheap contract. The idea is not to count on Anderson, but to count on one of the three of Anderson (if healthy), Hughes (if healthy) and Mejia (if ready). I'd honestly take my chances with the combination of those three as the fifth starter over Santiago. Yes his ERA hasn't been terrible, but his peripherals have been, and with a defense as bad as the Twins, we cannot count on a low K, high BB pitcher like him to continue to be merely slightly below average.

[nicksaviking]

 

I really want Kyle Gibson to just go away because he is infuriating to watch pitch, but I'd be shocked if he's not in the rotation next year.

 

I want a new GM to come in here and tell Kyle Gibson that his sinker isn't as good as he thinks it is, so stop throwing it with two strikes.

[TheLeviathan]

Santana is a fine pitcher, I like him, I appreciate what he brings, but I'm also not going to let some delusion about 2017 guide my decision making process.

 

If we can deal Dozier and Santana and land at least one (if not two) major league ready young starters - we should do it.  Santana's clock here is ticking and, like Dozier, this offseason is the ideal time to trade him.

 

Too often lately we've let sentiment and false hope guide our decision making and that's one of the reasons our roster is a mess.  We'll be continuing that trend if we go into next season thinking we need to keep Dozier and Ervin.  Don't deal them for peanuts, but for the love of all that's holy - shop them!

[Craig Arko]

 

I want a new GM to come in here and tell Kyle Gibson that his sinker isn't as good as he thinks it is, so stop throwing it with two strikes.

GM should not be involved at that level. That's on the manager and the pitching coach.

[rghrbek]

 

Good comments so far. I'll just say a couple of things:

 

1) Not a fan of the "let them compete in spring training approach." The Twins have made bad roster decisions too many times in the past by making judgments on the basis of specious data gathered over a month of exhibition games. They need a firm plan going into camp, which was the idea behind this thought exercise.

 

2) Giving up on players like Gibson after one bad year is how teams make huge mistakes that haunt them down the line. It's short-sighted and reactionary. He's a talented pitcher who had a bad season. 

 

Didn't Gibson come up here in 2013?   3+ over all below average performance, and now age 29, makes it very, very fair to question if he should be in the rotation.   Gleeman's tweets about his over all numbers compared to Mr. Nick Blackburn a month or 2 ago, were very disturbing.  

 

I tend to agree with some on this post when they say,  how is next year's rotation better if it's all filled with this year's guys, specifically the guys we have a larger sample size on, in the bigs?

 

The young guys have to get better.  That's really the main hope.  I believe, with the right staff, and more reps that guys like Berrios and Mejia can be counted on.  2017 is gonna blow anyway.

 

If they want to keep Erv, fine, but they should always be entertaining trade offers, and hopefully can get some value for him this off season or at the deadline.

 

The other factor here, is who do they get back on a Dozier trade?  

 

Otherwise it's time for the young guys.

 

 

Edited September 21, 2016 by rghrbek

[Vanimal46]

 

I've seen some people suggest that the Twins should drop Santiago, but then go find a one-year plug in free agency. Anyone who believes they're going to find a better starter on a more favorable deal in FA is kidding themselves. 

I know you're right, but that doesn't help the hesitancy of giving him $9-10 million next year. There may be a new regime on the way, but it's still the Pohlad's that sign off on letting players go. I don't believe they would ever DFA a $10 million player no matter how bad he may perform. 

[kab21]

there should be no illusions that the Twins will field a great rotation next year. These are unfortunately the restraints that the Twins have with regards to starting pitching. The FA market is terrible and the Twins really only have one trade chip (Dozier) that will bring back a good MLB pitcher or really good prospect. Next year the Twins starting rotation needs to survive (not be historically bad) and give the Twins something to build on in 2018.

 

I am willing to trade Ervin if there is a legitimate good return available (like a top 100 prospect and an upside lower level prospect) but making the team (and especially the rotation) worse isn't something that this team should be doing. Unless of course a really good prospect is coming back.

Berrios - I agree that you just keep sending him out there. He has shown that he can handle AA/AAA and hopefully an offseason to reset himself. His stuff should work really well in the rotation.

 

Gibson - In fairly typical Twins Daily fashion I was not nearly as excited about him last offseason and I am not nearly as down on him this offseason. He should be back. If I had real plans to add TWO very good MLB starters then I wouldn't mind sending Gibson somewhere else but realistically this isn't going to happen.

 

Santiago - His role is to take up rotation space for next year so the team doesn't get killed in the first few innings. It is nothing special and many will hate it because for some reason they want to see the likes of Pat Dean and Andrew Albers making starts. The upper minors starting pitching gets really thin really fast. If the Twins are serious about adding one legit MLB pitcher (not a one year flyer or a pitcher that has once thrown >50 MLB IP in the last 5 years) then he can easily be gone.

 

Trevor May - this is the spot that can be competed for in spring training with May penciled in. Unfortunately only Mejia is a real threat early in the season.

 

Mejia is the plan B if any of the shaky starters above falter or someone gets injured.

 

Gonsalves has only started 13 games in AA with a 4.5 BB/9. I like his potential but he shouldn't be an option until at least midseason.

 

Jay has only started 2 games in AA and he shouldn't be an option until late in the season.

 

Stewart continues to post nice ERA's and awful K rates. perhaps he is an option at some point next season but I hope he is nothing more than the #5+ option to be called up. 

 

This definitely isn't impressive but this can be a solid (still below average) enough for an improving offense. 

 

 

 

 

[gocgo]

 

I have previously suggested something similar, for real.

 

1. Santana starts

2. Berrios starts

 

3-5.....start guys for 1-2 times thru the rotation, then bring in the next guys, then the next guys. Rotate people up and down from AAA every few weeks. Duffey for 9-18 hitters, then May, then regular bullpen.

 

These guys would go every 3-4 days, and you'd need about 8 of them. That's why you'd need to rotate thru AAA.....

It's a creative way to expand the roster, but I'm guessing if there isn't something to prevent it in place already, there would be in a hurry.

[ashbury]

2) Giving up on players like Gibson after one bad year is how teams make huge mistakes that haunt them down the line. It's short-sighted and reactionary. He's a talented pitcher who had a bad season. 

Or, he's a damaged player, who bounced back to have his career year in 2015 and will not reach even that level of averageness again.

 

I'm no doctor, but his good-Gibby bad-Gibby track record suggests to me he has lingering intermittent finger numbness, post-TJ surgery, even after all this time (or more acute again through further wear and tear). Or pick a different theory, but the good-Gibby bad-Gibby pattern has me no longer ready to count on him whatsoever, and I doubt you could get anything decent in trade so I really don't know what to do with him except keep him in the mix as a fifth starter candidate.

 

The entire 2017 plan for the rotation laid out in this thread frustrates the heck out of me, with the state that our pitching options have come down to. May and Santana, and pray for mañana. I really hope the new PBO and GM have some magic up their sleeves that will make the present discussion so moot that we'll all be laughing six months from now.

 

Yep. I'm down to hoping for magic.

[Taildragger8791]

Realistically, there aren't any options to turn over this rotation in one year other than getting Sandy Alderson liquored up at winter meetings and tricking him into trading Syndergaard and deGrom for Plouffe and Duffey. So we're going to just have to suck it up and relive this season again next year while we wait on options to develop, and yes it's going to be a bunch of try-outs and burnouts and 95+ losses.

 

I doubt you'd get more back from trading Santana than you'll get from playing him. He provides some stability and mentorship to the other pitchers. I don't want to sell the farm for veterans. Dozier is the only chance to get some talent back but the 2B trade market may be weak with how strong that position has been this year, and it's rare for the Twins to sell high on a player, so I don't expect anything to happen.

 

The only chance to improve this junk rotation is to swap out the coaching, because that's the biggest common thread between so many sub-par performances. You can't fire every pitcher on the team, especially when there is clearly some talent there. With that, then the hope is that next season provides clarity on these things going into 2018 on how to build a better rotation:

 

• Which Gibson is real, 2015 or 2016? I have my doubts but there isn't anyone pushing him out at this point so you have to let him keep trying, even if it hurts to watch.
• I'm not crazy about Santiago but he'll eat innings...maybe. If the money could be reallocated more effectively I'd be for cutting him though. I worry he's going to underperform and eat the money instead of innings like almost every other pitcher we've run through here. Whether that's due to coaching, defense, or a warlock's curse I don't know yet.
• Can Berrios make the leap?
• Can May start and hold up?
• Give Mejia a long tryout to see what we have there
• At mid-season, audition Gonsalves and later on Stewart to see what they look like
• If Jay has a big year at AA I'd be okay with giving him a little time later in the year, maybe out of the bullpen to start

Also:

• Put Duffey in the pen and let his two good pitches play up
• Hughes also stays in the pen all year unless he suddenly goes "Rookie of the Year" and starts throwing fire. He's likely done as a starter.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's a creative way to expand the roster, but I'm guessing if there isn't something to prevent it in place already, there would be in a hurry.

 

why? Teams send players to AAA all the time.

 

If you have terrible starters, you should be open to trying something else. I predict that eventually a team will do this....

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I want a new GM to come in here and tell Kyle Gibson that his sinker isn't as good as he thinks it is, so stop throwing it with two strikes.

yup. That, and call his own pitches, become a 50/40 fastball/slider guy, or something.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

GM should not be involved at that level. That's on the manager and the pitching coach.

speaking of...

[ashbury]

why? Teams send players to AAA all the time.

 

If you have terrible starters, you should be open to trying something else. I predict that eventually a team will do this....

I think the main constraint is that when you send a guy down, you can't recall him for a certain number of days. Ten, maybe? Not every pitcher has minor league options remaining, either. If you factor in injuries as well, it means you need a very lengthy list of MLB ready pitchers on the 40-man, and the additional padding will be even more Albers types than we have now. (If you had someone better, you wouldn't be in this pickle in the first place.) The GM will find the roster-juggling a very great challenge, and you'll have even more innings in which pitchers are overmatched by major league hitters.

 

I am all for outside the box thinking. Good luck to the GM who attempts this one, though.

[blindeke]

If I never see Santiago pitch again, it'll be OK with me!

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think the main constraint is that when you send a guy down, you can't recall him for a certain number of days. Ten, maybe? Not every pitcher has minor league options remaining, either. If you factor in injuries as well, it means you need a very lengthy list of MLB ready pitchers on the 40-man, and the additional padding will be even more Albers types than we have now. (If you had someone better, you wouldn't be in this pickle in the first place.) The GM will find the roster-juggling a very great challenge, and you'll have even more innings in which pitchers are overmatched by major league hitters.

 

I am all for outside the box thinking. Good luck to the GM who attempts this one, though.

 

Well, I did lay this out once, I'll see if I can find it. You need less pitchers than you'd think, and mediocre RPs going thru a lineup one time are A LOT more effective than bad SPs doing it three times....

 

I also think I had 3 "real" starters in that document. If I find it, or not, I may post it as a new thread.

 

I see no good path to 5 good SPs in MN next year, let alone the 7 you need to make thru the year (heck, not sure I see a good path to 3 or 4).

[USAFChief]

Well, I did lay this out once, I'll see if I can find it. You need less pitchers than you'd think, and mediocre RPs going thru a lineup one time are A LOT more effective than bad SPs doing it three times....

 

I also think I had 3 "real" starters in that document. If I find it, or not, I may post it as a new thread.

 

I see no good path to 5 good SPs in MN next year, let alone the 7 you need to make thru the year (heck, not sure I see a good path to 3 or 4).

We don't have relief pitchers that can go through one inning, Mike. And you think they can find a whole slough of em who can go through three innings?

[Mike Sixel]

 

We don't have relief pitchers that can go through one inning, Mike. And you think they can find a whole slough of em who can go through three innings?

 

Easier than finding SPs, yes. I do. though, yes, I am skeptical....very skeptical.

 

I see no path to enough SPs next year, hence I would try something completely different and see if it works. But only if I was a new GM, because any GM at risk of losing her job could never try something this off the wall.

[Joe A. Preusser]

It's absolutely not the same rotation. No Nolasco, no Milone, Duffy to the pen. No Pat Dean as our 1st backup. How much better is our team ERA without the numbers those put up. I'm pretty sure we would gain half a run per game right there. I'd like to see what a year of Nicks starting 5 would get us. Do NOT trade Ervin or any member of the offense that isn't a DH/1B. The offense is good enough to compete, but not good enough to start hacking off chunks to leverage into pitching.

[Joe A. Preusser]

It's absolutely not the same rotation. No Nolasco, no Milone, Duffy to the pen. No Pat Dean as our 1st backup. How much better is our team ERA without the numbers those put up. I'm pretty sure we would gain half a run per game right there. I'd like to see what a year of Nicks starting 5 would get us. Do NOT trade Ervin or any member of the offense that isn't a DH/1B. The offense is good enough to compete, but not good enough to start hacking off chunks to leverage into pitching.