Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation

[Nick Nelson]

The first and most important objective for any incoming baseball ops chief, in terms of roster construction, will be assembling a rotation for next season that gives the Twins a chance to compete.

 

This year's unit failed miserably in that regard. When the Twins inevitably drop their 100th game, they'll become the highest-scoring team with triple-digit losses of the last 10 years at least.Obviously, the new top decision-maker will want to pursue every avenue for improving Minnesota's historically bad starting corps. But that won't involve rebuilding from the ground up. There are usable assets on hand and the Twins will certainly give some of them an opportunity to rebound.

 

The question is which ones should be penciled in as members of the 2017 rotation, and which should be heading into spring training on the outside looking in, needing to earn their way back. This determination will have a major impact on how the front office approaches the offseason.

 

I would say that the following players will -- and in my estimation, probably should -- be viewed as locks:

 

Ervin Santana: I presume no one's going to argue with this one. Santana is on his way to posting the lowest ERA for a Twins starter since that other Santana guy left. Some might suggest he should be traded over the winter, and that's a discussion for another time, but if he's here, Erv is the Opening Day starter (again) in 2017.

 

Kyle Gibson: I suspect that some will disagree with this. Undeniably, Gibson has had an awful season. But he's just not a guy you give up on. He's 29, he was their best starter a year ago, and he'll be fairly inexpensive in his first year of arbitration. The ability is there but for whatever reason Gibson has been unable to straighten himself out this season. He looks like someone who would benefit greatly from a new coaching voice.

 

Jose Berrios: On the one hand, he has done nothing to earn a guaranteed spot with his rocky performance as a rookie. But on the other hand, it makes no sense to send Berrios back to the minors. He has nothing left to accomplish there. He needs to sink or swim in the rotation from Day One next year. He'll have the next few months to focus on everything he needs to improve, and something tells me there will be no shortage of hard work put forth on that front.

 

Hector Santiago: Since his dreadful opening stretch with the new club, Santiago has gone back to his usual routine, delivering solid if unspectacular starts each fifth day. He'll be 29 and on a one-year deal through arbitration, so there isn't much risk. If he's healthy and decent, he eats innings and fills a spot at the back of the rotation. If he's not good, the Twins can cut him loose and try another option. I only refer to him as a lock because that is what he'll be once the team commits to paying him close to $10 million for next year.

 

With those four in place, the Twins will have one wide-open spot to fill. They could look to address it externally, but there will be several options on hand. Let's run through some of those candidates:

 

Phil Hughes: Coming off thoracic outlet surgery, I severely doubt that he'll be healthy and strong enough to be an MLB starter next April. Let's not forget that he was throwing in the 80s and fatiguing in the fifth inning by the time he finally submitted to his shoulder issues. Although he'll be nine months removed from surgery by the start of next season, I'd rather see him ramp up and get sharp in the minors or extended spring before being inserted back into the big-league rotation.

 

Trevor May: The Twins have declared that they intend to return May to a starting role, which is good news. But he hasn't started a game since last August. After altering his routine and approach to that of a reliever, he'll now need to switch back. There is no assurance he'll be able to complete that process in camp, and the Twins would be hard-pressed to rely upon it. He will have one option remaining if they want to start him in Triple-A as a go-to reinforcement.

 

Tyler Duffey: My belief is that Duffey needs to swap roles with May and head to the bullpen. He was a dominant collegiate closer before the Twins drafted him, and his two-pitch combo is tailor-made for shorter stints. Even if the team doesn't go that route, I have to imagine that his brutal results this year have eliminated him from any kind of consideration to open 2017 in the rotation, regardless of how he looks in March.

 

Adalberto Mejia: Acquired from San Francisco at the deadline, he had a nice year in Triple-A and briefly debuted for the Twins last month. Mejia is bordering on big-league ready but I suspect that he'll begin at Rochester again next year. It's tough to slot a guy with so little experience into a rotation that desperately needs to improve, especially with Berrios already in that mix.

 

There are a few other prospects that could factor into this conversation, as well as Tommy Milone if he's kept around (doubtful). But these are the names I would have listed as legitimate options. Obviously, it will be helpful to add more depth and upside to this group, and that will be a priority during the coming offseason.

 

What are your thoughts? Who should be penciled in? If you're the GM, how many starters are you set on acquiring this winter?

 

Click here to view the article

[jimmer]

Unfortunately, that offense we are so proud of are the same guys playing the 2nd worst defense in the majors.

 

The interim GM said he wants May to compete for a spot in the rotation next year. Kind of like he supposedly did this spring training.

 

And Gibson....oh boy...

Edited September 21, 2016 by jimmer

[tobi0040]

I was hoping to see Ervin and Ervin alone penciled in.

 

I get that we aren't going to release Gibson, but i just don't think anyone else can be penciled in this early when they have been that bad.

[TheLeviathan]

I still hope Santana is dealt this offseason.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Unfortunately, that offense we are so proud of are the same guys playing the 2nd worst defense in the majors.

 

Infield defense is not great but Twins pitchers are worst in the AL in home runs allowed and line drive % 

 

Also, rotation thread.

[jimmer]

 

Infield defense is not great but Twins pitchers are worst in the AL in home runs allowed and line drive % 

 

Also, rotation thread.

yeah, it is a rotation thread, but unfortunately defense is tied in with pitching in the whole prevention of runs part of the game.  Plus, you know, this quote in the OP about our offense 'When the Twins inevitably drop their 100th game, they'll become the highest-scoring team with triple-digit losses of the last 10 years at least.' So I thought we should at least remember these are the guys playing what is charitably called defense out there too ;-)

 

Of course, that's an interesting distinction when you consider there haven't really been too many teams that have lost 100 or more in the last 10 seasons, has there? :-)

 

 

Edited September 21, 2016 by jimmer

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Ervin, and maybe May.

 

Pink slip Santiago and Milone.

 

Let the others compete for starter jobs in spring training. 

 

The top priority the next couple years starting yesterday should be to cleanse the organization of its pitching personnel and philosophy, but yeah, a starting rotation will need to be filled out.

[jorgenswest]

This starting staff seems so far away from winning. Might be wise to trade Ervin before he falls. Is this team going to contend next year? What will Ervin have left two years from now? They must get starting pitching in any return, but maybe that starting pitching is going to be a key piece towards a contending team.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

yeah, it is a rotation thread, but unfortunately defense is tied in with pitching in the whole prevention of runs part of the game.  Plus, you know, this quote in the OP about our offense 'When the Twins inevitably drop their 100th game, they'll become the highest-scoring team with triple-digit losses of the last 10 years at least.' So I thought we should at least remember these are the guys playing what is charitably called defense out there too ;-)

 

Of course, that's an interesting distinction when you consider there haven't really been too many teams that have lost 100 or more in the last 10 seasons, has there? :-)

That is pretty remarkable.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Trading Santana this offseason does make a lot of sense. For me personally it gives the impression of forfeiting 2017, however, and I'd rather go into 2017 trying to win games and see what happens. There's too much raw talent here. You never know.

[bluechipper]

I really want Kyle Gibson to just go away because he is infuriating to watch pitch, but I'd be shocked if he's not in the rotation next year.

 

And unfortunately Berrios has played himself into not being a lock next year, especially if/when a free agent or a trade brings in another pitcher.

[jimbo92107]

I have finalized a list of the best Twins starters for 2017. Unfortunately, it's a little hard to read. To create the list, I filled several small balloons with bright paint, drank half a bottle of whiskey, then hurled the balloons at a large canvass across the room while channeling the spirit of the great Walter Johnson. When I woke up the next morning, there it was. Granted, what I had thought was a large canvass was in fact the side of my landlord's Winnebago, but the meaning was clear. Here was the list of starters. 

 

Interpretation may prove difficult, although when I squint I swear I can see an 'Ir', which obviously means Irvin Santana. After that, it's not so clear at the moment. 

 

More whiskey!

[USAFChief]

The way to improve next year's rotation is to keep this year's rotation?

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

The new Head FO dude and GM will likely have a pretty big role in determining this. Both will likely come from outside of the organization and be tied to non of the veterans or younger players. My guess though is that it will likely be more of the same. Probably not going after any big name veterans coming off such a bad season, yet we really can't afford to get rid of any of our valuable pitchers either. The only guy we MIGHT be able to get a prospect with is Santana, but I doubt that we would get anything worth creating such a void in our already terrible rotation.

[jokin]

 

The way to improve next year's rotation is to keep this year's rotation?

 

Exactly what I thought.... with a new Ivy League brained sheriff in town quite soon, plus hopefully a new big Ivy League baseball brain serving as his boss as POBO, if the 2017 rotation doesn't look drastically different than 2016... then the Twins Search Committee probably failed miserably in their "Search"

 

May I politely suggest that rather than "penciling in" a 2017 rotation at this point, the new management instead use a big, bold ink pen and completely blot out a bunch of these guys' names off the (glaring lack of) SP depth chart for good?

Edited September 21, 2016 by jokin

[beckmt]

Santana is the only name in the rotation I would write in ink.  I would start Berrios in long mop in the pen and let him work his way into the rotation.  May I would move back to starter and probably start in Rochester to increase his workload.

Duffey also to the pen, that leaves me with Santiago and Santana.  It also leave Mejia as a possible along with any signings and trades.  Gibson I do not know what to do, non tender seems to be an option, since he is already late 20's and will probably not be here 2 years from now or possibly trade with another bad team for an A to A+ pitcher with some upside. 

Maybe Gonsalves is able to start here, would give him the chance in spring training to convince me.

That would also leave probably Wimmers, Chagois, Rogers, Pressley in the pen also with the other 2 pitchers and leave only 1 lefty to be found.  This would be written in pencil with hopes some of the other AA pen could force there way here.

[Linus]

Ervin is back. The rest need to fight for their jobs. It's also why Dozier needs to be traded for the best starter available. What a mess.

[Mr. Brooks]

So basically the same rotation as now, and we just hope it gets better?

If you are going to do that, then you might as well just trade Ervin and Dozier, because we already know the results of that rotation.

[nytwinsfan]

Drop Santiago, send Duffey to the bullpen and give May an extended shot (assuming he's healthy).

 

Starting rotation:

1. Santana

2. Gibson

3. May

4. Berrios

5. Mejia/Hughes(if Healthy)/ 1 year contract (with no guarantee of being in the rotation).

 

Gonsalves should be ready by mid to late in the season and Duffey can always be stretched out in an emergency earlier.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I think what needs to be added to this discussion is the obvious upgrade that needs to happen at catcher and at shortstop,at the very least. On top of that, this team may look VERY different in the field behind whatever they do with the pitching staff.

If for example, we know that the Twins acquire (hypothetically) Zack Cozart to play SS and an above average defensive catcher to start 120 games, then I will feel better about the team/pitching staff as a whole. But, I do think there will be at least 2-3 new names not listed above who will be solidly in the mix before opening day. 1 free agent (Brett Anderson) and one starter acquired via trade (Dozier?) along with maybe Ervin (unless they trade him) et al.

[Blackjack]

 

I really want Kyle Gibson to just go away because he is infuriating to watch pitch, but I'd be shocked if he's not in the rotation next year.

 

And unfortunately Berrios has played himself into not being a lock next year, especially if/when a free agent or a trade brings in another pitcher.

 

People badmouth Gibson but you notice he's second on Nick's list -- the Twins don't have a lot of options.  They need him to eat up some innings and hope that he turns the corner and becomes more consistent. He has talent but just can't string together 3-4 good games. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

yeah, it is a rotation thread, but unfortunately defense is tied in with pitching in the whole prevention of runs part of the game.  Plus, you know, this quote in the OP about our offense 'When the Twins inevitably drop their 100th game, they'll become the highest-scoring team with triple-digit losses of the last 10 years at least.' So I thought we should at least remember these are the guys playing what is charitably called defense out there too ;-)

 

Of course, that's an interesting distinction when you consider there haven't really been too many teams that have lost 100 or more in the last 10 seasons, has there? :-)

 

 

That is pretty remarkable.

Yes to both.  But let's try not doing it again.  

[Platoon]

I would keep Santana, maybe flip him during the season, if as expected we remain mediocre. Berrios for sure, as said its sink or swim. Rochester is just delaying a decision. He may not end up and ace, but still be very serviceable. May gets a shot at redemption. Gibson, probably, if for no other reason than its going to take time to sort this out. For the rest, it's open competition, and by open, I mean open, not contract related. Sadly, I bet someone will open a very similar thread next fall.

[Penthang]

People calling to trade Santana are being short sighted I think. What I would like to see is Santana and Santiago followed by youth including Berrios and the next two who stand out in spring training. I agree with moving Duffy to the pen and giving May a real crack at the rotation, not the window dressing chance he got this year. I, for one, want Santana around as a veteran presence for the young guys. Also, I don't think we would get good value back for him in the off season. We may however, get value for him at the trade deadline. As for Gibson, I am hopeful for a new coaching voice that can unlock his potential, but at his age that seems to be a door quickly closing. Maybe he leaves as part of a package deal for prospects?

[Vanimal46]

Very hesitant about giving Santiago $10 million. With that kind of money, he'll be in the rotation all season long, no matter the results. 

[Thrylos]

 

 

What are your thoughts? Who should be penciled in? If you're the GM, how many starters are you set on acquiring this winter?

 

 

I think that if we should be able to even pencil in names for the rotation right now, that means that the new head of baseball will not be doing his job...

 

This is a team that is projected to lose 103 games, and primarily because of its pitching.  The 2017 rotation should look totally different and this team should rebuild.  The core of this team is at about 23-24, so everyone over 27 should go.  This includes Santana, Gibson, and Santiago.  The last 2 are at their prime and the first one past his and coming from a season that screams "sell high" as much as Dozier's does.

 

You cannot do much about Hughes, but you cannot count on him.  If he does not come back, insurance will mitigate the loss, if he does, he will be a gift (hopefully wrapped for another team or anchoring the pen...)

 

Duffey has done everything he can to show that he does not belong in a major league rotation, but he could be good out of the pen, where he should be in 2017

 

Who would I pencil in?

 

Nobody.

 

I'd acquire 2 arms at least at the projected Berrios level who are at the AA/AAA level for Dozier, Santana, Gibson, Stewart, Gordon or whomever below A+ and/or over 27 will make it happen, and would let:

 

those 2, 

Berrios,

Mejia,

May,

Gonsalves,
Jay,

Romero,

Jorge and

(Randy) Rosario

 

fight it out in Spring Training.  The rest (other than May (*) who has no options) can start in Rochester.  That's 10 arms.

 

(*) this might sound that I am penciling in May, but if he does not work, he can go to the pen...

 

 

That's how teams rebuild

Edited September 21, 2016 by Thrylos

[gocgo]

Who needs starting pitching?  Let's be creative here.  We go with a 13 man rotation.  Everyone throws one inning a day.  That's right.  You throw one inning just like a little league rec team looking for anyone that can throw it across the plate.  If you fail miserably, you get the next day off or get shipped down to the minors and we bring up the next in line.  You gotta ask yourself - what would Billy Beane do?

[Willihammer]

Santiago has only sucked in his brief Twins career. He is a 103 ERA+ starter overall. The same or better than Ervin Santana, Matt Shoemaker, Jake Odorizzi, Jeremy Hellickson, Ian Kennedy, etc.

[Craig Arko]

 

Who needs starting pitching?  Let's be creative here. You gotta ask yourself - what would Billy Beane do?

I believe I saw absinthe suggested in yesterday's game thread.

[HitInAPinch]

So a bad year for Duffey puts him in the bullpen, but Berrios in the starting rotation?  Next year, as I've posted before, both should be in the MLB bullpen.  2 inning max, low pressure situations.  Work them in;   not just dump them into the rotation.

 

And with that, yeah, Twins will still need some veterans to step up / heal [santana, Hughes] and for others to once and for all, prove they belong [Gibson, Santiago and May].  Watching Santiago last night, I don't think he's that guy.  May has had unreported back issues.  Gibson:  IDK.  Injuries, shoulder.  I hope May and Gibson are completely healed by Spring Training.  And here's hoping Mejia is going to be, something.  Stats don't tell much.

 

To summarize:  I don't believe the Twins have any real semblance of a starting rotation right now.  I just hope they don't go to deep or to long [contract] on anything.