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Article: Dozier's Case For American League MVP


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There are power hitters growing right now. Sano, Buxton (i saw a graphic on TV he hit 7 since 9/1), Kepler, Vargas. Will any reach 40 in a season? Probably not--but enough power for the entire team to be near 200 in a season--which averages  to about 1-1/4 per game! Tis enough HRs. 

 

Pitching--Ouch! A major need there. Probably 3 SPs and 3 RPs at least.

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17 HR in wins.

25 HR in losses.

 

Yeah.  That includes multi-home run games.  In games where he hit a home run, the Twins have gone 15-23 for a .394 winning percentage.  With the Twins at .359 now, evidence suggests his power is worth about five more wins to this team.  This is close to but a little lower than his WAR (6.3 or 6.6, depending on your flavor), which makes sense as his non-power skills are worth a few pennies too.  Advanced metrics give him an extra 11 points of team win percentage from his power, which is far short of five wins.  But I'll stick with my estimation.

 

Does this make him MVP material?  I would say no.  If his defensive WAR were a couple of points higher I think he becomes worthy of MVP discussion.  

 

He can finish the season as the home run leader.  That's a huge achievement, esp. for a Twin and esp. for a 2nd baseman.

Edited by Doomtints
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Yeah.  That includes multi-home run games.  In games where he hit a home run, the Twins have gone 15-23 for a .394 winning percentage.  With the Twins at .359 now, evidence suggests his power is worth about five more wins to this team.  This is close to but a little lower than his WAR (6.3 or 6.6, depending on your flavor), which makes sense as his non-power skills are worth a few pennies too.  Advanced metrics give him an extra 11 points of team win percentage from his power, which is far short of five wins.  But I'll stick with my estimation.

 

Does this make him MVP material?  I would say no.  If his defensive WAR were a couple of points higher I think he becomes worthy of MVP discussion.  

 

He can finish the season as the home run leader.  That's a huge achievement, esp. for a Twin and esp. for a 2nd baseman.

He's not a top 5 candidate for MVP.  Period.

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From a personal standpoint. I hope David Ortiz wins it. Nice way to cap off a career.

That would be horrible, IMO.  Giving an MVP to someone for sentimental reasons when there are many players more deserving.  He's not even the most deserving on his own team.

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