Article: Dozier's Case For American League MVP

[Cody Christie]

There's no arguing how bad the Twins have been this season. Even through all the mucky mess on the field, Brian Dozier has emerged as one bright spot in a sea of darkness.

 

The home runs and his recent hitting streak have kept him in the news. He's put up numbers that have never been seen before from a second baseman but is it enough to put him into the American League MVP conversation?By The Numbers

Dozier's 39 home runs as a second baseman (two have come as DH) have him tied for the all-time AL record by a second baseman. He is only three home runs behind Davey Johnson and Rogers Hornsby for the MLB record. Baseball Reference ranks Dozier as the fifth best player in the AL this season while FanGraphs ranks him as the sixth best AL player. He has more home runs than everyone in front of him and he is closing in on the century mark with RBIs (98) and runs (99).

 

When Dozier scores his next run, he will join Chuck Knoblach as the only Twins to ever score 100-plus runs in three straight seasons. Since June 18, Dozier has 34 home runs, the most in baseball, while his closest competitors have only managed 22 apiece. During his current 22-game hitting streak, he's slashing .351/.425/.766 with 11 home runs in 94 at-bats.

 

Historical Precedent

Voters tend to look at the best players on winning teams when handing out the top AL hardware. However, there is a historical precedent for MVPs playing for losing teams. The 1991 Baltimore Orioles finished in sixth place in the AL East with a 67-95 record. Cal Ripken Jr. cranked 34 home runs and drove in 114 on his way to the AL MVP.

 

The 2003 Texas Rangers finished the year with 91 losses but Alex Rodriguez still came away with the AL's top honor. Rodriguez had a historic season for a shortstop, hitting 47 home runs and drove in 118 RBIs. He combined for a 8.4 WAR, the seventh best total of his career.

 

It takes the right atmosphere in the baseball world but it is not unprecedented for a player on a losing team to win the MVP.

 

Candidates Catching A Cold

For much of the first half of the season, it looked like Jose Altuve could run away with the AL MVP. The Astros were playing well and he was putting up tremendous numbers. He hit .341/.413/.542 with 14 home runs, 24 doubles and 23 stolen bases. As the Astros have fallen further behind in the standings, Altuve has struggled at the plate. So far in September, he is hitting .222/.279/.365 with five extra-base hits.

 

Josh Donaldson, the 2015 AL MVP, looked to join Miguel Cabrera as the only back-to-back MVP winner in the 2000's. Much like Altuve, he played very well in the first half by combining for a 1.017 OPS with 23 home runs and 20 doubles. A second half slide has seen his average dip to .253 with just 20 extra-base hits. Toronto is just four game out in the AL East so this could help Donaldson's candidacy.

 

Fishing For Trout

While other candidates might be falling by the wayside, Mike Trout might be emerging as a favorite. Like Dozier, Trout is on a bad team but his WAR total far outpaces the competition on both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. He entered play on Monday leading the AL in walks and OBP. He's also on pace to lead the AL in offensive WAR for the sixth consecutive season.

 

If the voters looked solely at WAR, Trout would have more MVPs in his trophy case. His lone MVP award came in 2014 when the Angels won the AL West by 10 games. If Altuve and Donaldson continue their recent cold streaks, the voters might look to a familiar name even if he is on a bad Angels squad. By many accounts, he is the best player in the game and he has only one MVP award.

 

When push comes to shove, Dozier will likely get some top-10 and even top-5 votes for the AL MVP. He would need to continue his blistering pace over the last few weeks to make his numbers truly stand apart from the crowd.

 

Unfortunately, there haven't been many eyes on Minnesota baseball this season and that will only hurt his MVP chances. It's been an historic season for the Twins Brian Dozier but it has been a small ripple in a very big MLB pond.

 

Where would Dozier be on your AL MVP Ballot? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Seth Stohs]

Good topic... I mean, Mike Trout should be the easy winner... Ken Rosenthal is even throwing his fellow BBWAA writers under the bus a little, pushing for Trout.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/how-will-voters-rob-mike-trout-out-of-the-mvp-this-year-091916

 

But as you wrote, there is certainly enough precedent for guys from teams that aren't contending that it shouldn't factor into where people vote for Dozier. 

 

Of course, in a perfect world, the best player plays on a winning team, but that's not always going to happen. I'd put Dozier behind Trout, Donaldson, Altuve, Betts and I'm sure I'm forgetting a couple. He should be in that 6-8 range probably. 

[John Kelsey]

I'd have:

 

1A. Trout

1B. Betts

3. Altuve

4. Donaldson

5. Machado 

 

With Dozier somewhere in the next 5.

[pierre75275]

I want to see Dozier get some national recognition. I don't think he should win it but I don't think the deciding factor of who does should simply be bc they play on a winning team.

[theBOMisthebomb]

The two examples you give of MVP winners on bad teams are 91 ad 95 loss teams. Our Twins this year are crashing toward 105 losses, almost assuredly 100 losses. Has an MVP ever been on a 100+ loss team? Dozier has been great, just not THAT great to overcome such a bad team record.

[jimmer]

Due to the title of this thread, when I opened it, I expected the original post to have something in it like 'I got nothin'.

 

Usually when a player from a last place team wins the MVP, it's because his performance so far outweigh everyone else's, there's no other choice.  Not at all the case here, at least not with Dozier being the guy.  Trout should be the example here, if we're looking for an MVP from a last place team.

 

Dozier will likely sit around 8-10th

Edited September 20, 2016 by jimmer

[jimmer]

 

I'd have:

 

1A. Trout

1B. Betts

3. Altuve

4. Donaldson

5. Machado 

 

With Dozier somewhere in the next 5.

Those are how the top 5 should look.  I imagine that's how it will end up with the order switched up a bit.

[Mike Sixel]

Trout

...

....

....

....

Donaldson

Betts

Machado

Altuve

 

Dozier is in clearly in the top 7-10.....but he's not in the top 5, imo. Great season! wow.

[Thrylos]

AL fWAR:

 

Trout 8.6
Betts 7.1
Donaldson 6.8
Altuve 6.6
Machado 6.3
Dozier 6.1

 

This is Trout's to lose, unless the majority of the voters would be of the opinion that an MVP should have helped lead his team to the post-season or at least be in a competitive team.  If that is the case it is Bett's award.

[jimmer]

If all voters looked at was a player's total contribution to his team, as opposed to narratives, just offense, and if his TEAM made the playoffs, Trout would be working on his 5th MVP now and Cabrera wouldn't have any top 2 finishes, much less two actual MVPs.  Donaldson would have also been recognized as a real MVP candidate way before 2015 (when he finished 2nd in AL WAR), since he finished 2nd in AL WAR in 2013 and 2014 as well.

 

 

Edited September 20, 2016 by jimmer

[HitInAPinch]

Chicago Cubs, 1987.  Last place NL East by 18 1/2 games.

Andre Dawson, NL MVP

 

Now then:  Cubs record that year was 76–85.  Current Twins records:  55-95.

 

[jimmer]

 

Chicago Cubs, 1987.  Last place NL East by 18 1/2 games.

Andre Dawson, NL MVP

 

Now then:  Cubs record that year was 76–85.  Current Twins records:  55-95.

And Dawson got it because of HR. There were quite a few players who deserved it way more than he did.  Don't know what the voters were thinking, really.  If their idea was, 'We want to prove standings don't matter in our voting' why not pick Gwynn or the guy I would have picked, Dale Murphy.

Edited September 20, 2016 by jimmer

[TheBoofIsLoose]

Dozier is probably around 6th or 7th in the AL. Fair or not, his slow start combined with how "well" the Twins have played has impacted people's minds. Wouldn't be surprised to see him get a few votes, but this has been Trout's MVP to lose for most of the season. Still an impressive season from Dozier and I hope he breaks the 2B HR record.

[Mike Sixel]

And, imo, once again, they will steal it from Trout. We don't agree on the definition of most valuable...

[jimmer]

 

And, imo, once again, they will steal it from Trout.

yup. I'm thinking there is no way he gets it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And Dawson got it because of HR. There were quite a few players who deserved it way more than he did.  Don't know what the voters were thinking, really.  If their idea was, 'We want to prove standings don't matter in our voting' why not pick Gwynn or the guy I would have picked, Dale Murphy.

HR and RBI were huge in that vote, but Dawson probably also got major bonus points for narrative in 1987:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andre_Dawson#Chicago_Cubs

 

 

Dawson played for the Expos until after the 1986 season when he became a free agent and sought a team whose home field had natural grass, as his knee injuries were aggravated by Olympic Stadium's artificial turf.[8] However, due to collusion on the part of the Major League Baseball owners, he was unable to attract offers.[9] Dawson campaigned for the Cubs to sign him during the offseason, but general manager Dallas Green resisted, insisting that the Cubs would start Brian Dayett in right field (Dawson had moved from center field to right field in his final two seasons as an Expo, due to the condition of his knees), and that one player could not make a 71-91 team a 91-71 team. When the Cubs opened camp in Mesa, Arizona that spring, Dawson and his agent Dick Moss arrived with a signed blank contract in an attempt to secure a contract with the Cubs. Dawson and Moss' stunt was derided as a "dog and pony show" by Green. After reviewing the contract, Green reached an agreement with Moss on a salary of $500,000, second-lowest on the team among regulars

 

Edited September 20, 2016 by spycake

[jimmer]

 

HR and RBI were huge in that vote, but Dawson probably also got major bonus points for narrative in 1987:

 

 

Yes, the narrative was a big thing.

 

I mentioned narratives as a factor in voting earlier.

 

This year we have the narratives of Altuve and Donaldson.  Altuve: Little Man doing big things.  We have the Donaldson narrative of how he could win back to back MVPs and he's doing even better this year.

[Cody Christie]

My ballot would be:

1) Trout

2) Betts

3) Altuve

4) Donaldson

5) Machado

6) Beltre

7) Dozier

8) Cano

9) Lindor

10) Seager

[Cody Christie]

Overall, there's no way Dozier would win but his numbers will put him on some ballots.

 

Old school voters will look at him because of his power numbers. 

 

New school voters will look at him because of his WAR totals.

[jimmer]

 

Overall, there's no way Dozier would win but his numbers will put him on some ballots.

 

Old school voters will look at him because of his power numbers. 

 

New school voters will look at him because of his WAR totals.

He will, deservedly, be on some ballots, since they vote for 10 players. He should be on most (if not all) ballots, but less deserving players will find their way on there.

 

Big Papi will likely be on every ballot.

Edited September 20, 2016 by jimmer

[nicksaviking]

They have an award for the best pitcher, they really need to make one solely and implicitly for the best hitter. The MVP award does not dictate that it is for the best hitter. One additional high profile award would stop this yearly contentiousness among fans and sportswriters.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm seeing a lot of herp-derp on Twitter about Dozier and the MVP. Personally, I think he's a decent candidate but hasn't posted the numbers nor had a respectable team behind him, which puts him behind a half-dozen or so candidates.

 

Ultimately, I think Dozier gets a few votes and finishes somewhere just outside the top five. At least that's where I'd put him this season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

One additional high profile award would stop this yearly contentiousness among fans and sportswriters.

I don't think it would matter much. There are big differences between how people view the Most "Valuable" Player and mostly, I'm okay with it.

 

Do RBI count? I'm fine if they do. They were things that happened, runs were scored. To an extent, the same goes for Runs.

 

Does a winning team matter? I'm fine with that, too. I don't think it should be the be-all, end-all factor but if it plays a part in the decision, whatever.

 

WAR or traditional stats? Eh, whatever. I lean toward advanced metrics but there's *some* merit to the old school metrics, too. At least in the case of deciding who had the largest positive impact on their team's season, anyway.

 

When you get right down to it, I don't have a problem with most award winners unless you get into the ridiculous territory of Bartolo Colon winning over Johan Santana simply because he did really well in one statistic, a mostly useless statistic at that. But that happened a long time ago and I think we've moved on to smarter decisions since that point.

[Cody Christie]

 

They have an award for the best pitcher, they really need to make one solely and implicitly for the best hitter. The MVP award does not dictate that it is for the best hitter. One additional high profile award would stop this yearly contentiousness among fans and sportswriters.

They've added the Platinum Award to the Gold Glove voting that names the best defensive player in each league. 

 

They could add a Platinum Award to the Silver Slugger voting that names the best offensive player in each league.

[Mike Sixel]

For me, it is pretty simple.....if you could add one player, for one year, based on last year's stats......and were starting from scratch....who would you pay the most money for? He's the most valuable. Because, you know, we measure value in money.....which player's one year performance would you pay the most money for if budget is no constraint (that is, not $/WAR or whatever)?

 

That's pretty much Trout every year for 5 years, imo.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's pretty much Trout every year for 5 years, imo.

I generally agree, though I didn't have problems with Miggy winning MVP in his triple crown season. It was the first time an AL player did it in 50-60 years. That's kind of a big deal.

 

But mostly, yeah, Trout. He's the best position player in baseball.

[Cody Christie]

 

For me, it is pretty simple.....if you could add one player, for one year, based on last year's stats......and were starting from scratch....who would you pay the most money for? He's the most valuable. Because, you know, we measure value in money.....which player's one year performance would you pay the most money for if budget is no constraint (that is, not $/WAR or whatever)?

 

That's pretty much Trout every year for 5 years, imo.

It's pretty crazy that Trout only has one MVP at this point in his career.

[Mike Sixel]

"how can he be a HoF player, he was only MVP once!"

[Rosterman]

Considering he was a half-season player. The Twins are in last place. What would his stats be if the Twins were actually good, perhaps? No eyes at all are on the team, sadly. If he would win the home run title, come in close in RBI and keep an average around .290, he will get recognized, but not with the trophy, sadly.

[gunnarthor]

I think Betts wins.  Dozier might get a top 10 vote or two but there are a lot of deserving players this year and are playing on good teams.