Article: Take Note Of Zander Wiel

[Parker Hageman]

The Minnesota Twins have developed a reputation for encouraging an archaic hitting philosophy to their prospects in the minor leagues. As other organizations have embraced big swings with big movements and working with them to bring out their best, hitters who have entered the Twins system get the cookie-cutter swing treatment: foot down early, head still, swing down.

 

More and more there have been players in the system who have eschewed those methods only to see their production improve. There are examples of great swing transformations within the Twins’ minor league system that should be highlighted and, much like Max Kepler's in Chattanooga a year ago, Cedar Rapids’ Zander Wiel’s is one of them.

 

While Brian Dozier’s incredible in-season turnaround has drawn all the attention, Wiel’s improvement at the minor league level is no less impressive.First, a little background on Wiel.

 

Wiel’s career at Vanderbilt was often overshadowed by marquee players like teammate Dansby Swanson, who went first overall in the 2015 draft, as well as other big names in the SEC including Alex Bregman (second overall, Astros) and Andrew Benintendi (seventh overall, Red Sox). Wiel, meanwhile, put up respectable numbers in his junior year, finishing with 15 home runs (tied for fifth in the conference) and second in runs batted in (68). Those totals in a tough conference -- where pitching opponents included Florida’s AJ Puk and Logan Shore as well as LSU’s Alex Lange -- and future potential led the Twins in his direction during the 12th round of that year’s draft.

 

The first thing that jumps out about Wiel’s college track record is the significant increase in his home runs total -- from 5 to 15 -- between his sophomore and junior seasons. The catalyst, he said, was the addition of a leg kick. The first baseman spent his first two years at Vanderbilt employing the standard toe tap (as you can see from his

). It was fine for contact but it was not generating the power results he desired as a corner infielder.

 

Wiel spent the summer collegiate league refining and perfecting the movements that he felt put everything in better position to drive the ball.

 

http://i.imgur.com/SRuJeBs.gif

 

Despite the improved numbers, evaluators questioned how well Wiel would do in the professional ranks. Baseball Prospectus said that he “tends to get too far forward in his weight shift, sweeping the barrel through the zone rather than driving it” and wondered if he would struggle switching from metal BBCore bats to wood. MinorLeagueBall.com’s John Sickels noted that there were some concerns about Wiel’s “non-conventional” swing heading into the draft. Most outlets agreed that he would be taken sometime between the fourth and seventh rounds so the Twins considered him a steal in the 12th round when he continued to fall.

 

In just his second game of his professional career, Wiel was hit by a pitch playing for Elizabethton and fractured his hand. He would miss the majority of that season, playing in the final ten games for the E-Twins. When he returned, in order to improve his timing, he simplified his swing by nixing the leg kick.

 

With an entire offseason to heal, Wiel brought the modified swing with him to Cedar Rapids to start the 2016 season.

 

http://i.imgur.com/PR17MJB.gif

 

By the end of June, Wiel was hitting .232/.309/.362 with just four home runs in a little over 300 plate appearances. He said his timing was off. He felt robotic. He was getting beat on fastballs. He made a decision to go big.

 

"Lifting my leg a little more has allowed me to have my trigger more ready to go," Wiel explained to MiLB.com’s Curt Rallo. "I was robotic. Now it's smoother for me. I'm able to see those pitches and hit them out front.”

 

Wiel went even larger and more aggressive with his movements than his Vandy days.

 

http://i.imgur.com/HEePV36.gif

From July onward, Wiel hit .291/.360/.574 with 15 home runs in 259 plate appearances. His 19 home runs on the year were second in the Midwest League but it is hard not to think about what kind of damage he could do with an entire season with his new mechanics.

 

Because it is the first thing someone notices about Wiel at the plate the leg kick draws the most attention but he also reset his hands in a better attack position. Previously, Wiel kept the barrel over his back shoulder and brought it straight up before launching it forward. Now his hands and bat are the quietest thing about his swing. The bat is tipped toward the pitcher and held still. This, he emphasized to reporters, was to keep him short to the ball and to keep him from being beat on fastballs inside.

 

Wiel’s breakout in low-A ball is noteworthy, to be sure, but there are several caveats such as Wiel’s advanced age. At 23 years old, he is two years older than the league’s average. He’s older than Max Kepler, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. Obviously Wiel had a delayed start to his career given that he spent three years in college (and one year redshirting) but you would like to see him outperforming a league in which he is younger than the pool. Nevertheless, Wiel’s breakout season is very much parallel with Kepler’s, who implemented a leg kick to his swing in Double-A and quickly rose on national prospect ranking.

 

Wiel’s 2016 performance doesn’t seem to be a hot streak or fluky -- he’s made the right adjustments. Time will tell where he goes from here.

 

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[clutterheart]

Wiel’s 2016 performance doesn’t seem to be a hot streak or fluky -- he’s made the right adjustments. Time will tell where he goes from here.

 

 

His performance seems to be a little streaky to me.  He had a really bad April and June, was decent in May and Aug with 1 amazing July.

 

April - 21 Games, SLG .312, OPS - .656

May- 25 Games, SLG  .490, OPS -.830

June -24 Games, SLG .256, OPS - .501

July -27 Games, SLG  .600, OPS - 1.067

August -26 Games, SLG .429,  OPS - .736

September -5 Games, SLG .840, OPS - 1.225

 

He is going to be 24 next year and has never seen an AB above Low A.  He strike outs a lot with just so-so OB numbers. 

 

He is not a bad prospect and its not his fault for being hurt.  But its telling the Twins didn’t promote him after his torrid July and let him stay as an overaged prospect the whole year in CR.

[Parker Hageman]

His performance seems to be a little streaky to me.He had a really bad April and June, was decent in May and Aug with 1 amazing July.

 

April - 21 Games, SLG .312, OPS - .656

May- 25 Games, SLG.490, OPS -.830

June -24 Games, SLG .256, OPS - .501

July -27 Games, SLG.600, OPS - 1.067

August -26 Games, SLG .429,OPS - .736

September -5 Games, SLG .840, OPS - 1.225

 

 

Rather than trying to carve up the season into arbitrary segments, try to use a milestone for when a player makes at significant change. In this case, at some point toward the end of June (I can't pinpoint an exact date so I did use make a somewhat arbitrary divide), Wiel made the big swing adjustment. 

 

April-June: 309 PA .232/.309/.362 9.7% BB% 21.0% K%

July-Sept:  259 PA .291/.360/.574 9.6% BB% 23.1% K%

MID League Avg:   .249/.317/.355 8.1% BB% 21.7 K%

 

We're not talking about a Palka/Walker type strikeout guy. He's decisively average and, given his position and spot in the order as a run-producer, that is about where I would expect to see him. It's higher than you would see for a truly elite prospect but we're not talking all or nothing. 

 

In terms of why he wasn't promoted after he caught fire, Seth will probably have to give more insight on that. In Fort Myers, they had Trey Vavra who wasn't doing much offensively at first base. The Lookouts had DJ Hicks at first and he was (1) super old for the level and (2) not hitting that much. The funny thing about Hicks is that he actually put up better offensive numbers as a 23 year old with Cedar Rapids than Wiel did. I feel like there was opportunity there but the Twins may have just wanted him to build on that confidence. 

 

Long view, I don't know if I actually see Wiel winding up with the Twins. They obviously have a dearth surplus of first basemen and that's probably where they finally stick Miguel Sano before he becomes a DH (or Vargas or Park or whoever else gets old and slow). Maybe a position change is in order but I'm not sure if he has enough mobility to play right field. More likely, if Wiel can continue this production at the second half pace in higher levels, he might be a useful trade chip (say in a multi-player trade). 

[ashbury]

Without bothering to check I have to believe most teams have power hitting 1B/DH prospects, so I am not optimistic he would be anything to build a trade around. We can give him away if some other team thinks he's the final piece to some bigger trade.

 

He doesn't strike me as having a great chance at a MLB career, but of course you never know. Just from looking at stats alone, I am glad to see he's a 12th rounder, because those picks always are lottery tickets at best.

 

I would not put much too stock into a major change in a batter's swing, until a year or so passes and it turns out that opposing pitchers have not found a counter-measure.

 

Here's hoping for the best, for his sake and for the franchise's.

[Tom Froemming]

FWIW Wiel was also a monster postseason. In five games we went 7-for-17 with five walks. And he's not just some hulking slugger, either. Including the playoffs, he hit 10 triples and was 7-for-8 in stolen base attempts. The guy is really athletic.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Long view, I don't know if I actually see Wiel winding up with the Twins. They obviously have a dearth of first basemen ...

 

A dearth is exactly what they don't have.

[Parker Hageman]

 

Without bothering to check I have to believe most teams have power hitting 1B/DH prospects, so I am not optimistic he would be anything to build a trade around. We can give him away if some other team thinks he's the final piece to some bigger trade.

 

Right, and to clarify, I'm not suggesting he is a guy teams will seek out, rather, he's the second or third guy involved in a trade -- particularly if he has another good year or two. If he hits, teams will want him. That's a good thing to have stockpiled in a system. 

 

 

FWIW Wiel was also a monster postseason. In five games we went 7-for-17 with five walks. And he's not just some hulking slugger, either. Including the playoffs, he hit 10 triples and was 7-for-8 in stolen base attempts. The guy is really athletic.

 

 

Yes, he appears plenty athletic for first base. I haven't observed him play that much but plays like this makes me think that there is some ability to convert to an outfielder. Very good arm for a first baseman.

 

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/756906191968534528 

A dearth is exactly what they don't have.

 

 

 

I kinda got caught between thoughts there. At the MLB level and AAA, they have a surplus. As I was rattling off the depth chart in Chattanooga and Fort Myers, there's a gap. Behind Wiel in rookie ball is one of my personal favorites in Lewin Diaz. A dearth is exactly what they don't have.

 

 

 

Separate from the depth chart and his future, Wiel is interesting because he represents a player that has big athletic movements in the org and is having success with it. The Twins seemingly haven't coached his movements out of him and this would be a big positive if they could refrain from toning everyone down once they got into the system. 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I have to say that the numbers post leg kick are dead sexy and can play anywhere.  I have to think though that he's going to have to repeat some something similar in High A next season to really have value.  Also strikes me as a mid season promotion candidate if he keeps hitting. 

[Parker Hageman]

I would not put much too stock into a major change in a batter's swing, until a year or so passes and it turns out that opposing pitchers have not found a counter-measure.

 

 

Here's the thing: It isn't a major change, it's going back to his roots. 

 

You can definitely put stock in the swing change as the factor behind the second half results. They are significantly better than they were at the beginning of the year. There's no questioning that. Has this swing change improved Zander Wiel this season and put him in a better position to succeed going forward? Yes, 100%. 

 

What I think you are trying to say is that you are not putting stock in his numbers just yet. And  that is understandable.

 

Players, coaches and hitting instructors will tell you that the next and/or last adjustment a hitter has to make is the mental side of the game. A guy could have the world's best swing but if he is always baffled by sliders and breaking balls in hitter's counts, he's not going to perform. Wiel hasn't reached that level yet where pitchers are good enough to attack in specific areas. That's just part of being in the lower levels of the minors. 

 

As I stress everywhere when discussing a mechanics adjustment, baseball is an organic game in which teams are constantly trying to find weaknesses at every level. Players are constantly making physical and mental adjustments. One thing that I should have stressed more is that Wiel already made one difficult adjustment -- some players do not do that and eventually wash out of the game. He willcertainly have more challenges ahead but this is a very good sign. 

[clutterheart]

Rather than trying to carve up the season into arbitrary segments, try to use a milestone for when a player makes at significant change. In this case, at some point toward the end of June (I can't pinpoint an exact date so I did use make a somewhat arbitrary divide), Wiel made the big swing adjustment.

 

Post his adjustment he had a stretch of games of being one of the best hitters in the league. Then he had another stretch of games of tapering off....that's just what happened.

So from whatever point you take he went from bad to getting better the he made the adjustment and was bad. Then he post adjustment he was amazingly great then he started to taper down back to simply decent.

 

Seems like the definition of streaky/flukey.

Edited September 20, 2016 by clutterheart

[Parker Hageman]

 

Post his adjustment he had a stretch of games of being one of the best hitters in the league. Then he had another stretch of games of tapering off....that's just what happened.
So from whatever point you take he went from bad to getting better the he made the adjustment and was bad. Then he post adjustment he was amazingly great then he started to taper down back to simply decent.

Seems like the definition of streaky/flukey.

 

1.) You are describing results, not process. Player development is focused on the latter. Wiel made an adjustment and was hitting the ball better in the second half of the season. That's a process improvement. 

 

2.) My definition of fluky for a hitter is not what Wiel was doing. Fluky is doing the same thing in both circumstances and having a few more fly balls get wind-blown out of the park. As detailed, Wiel made a significant change and as such he was hitting the ball much better (not just results-based). Is it streaky? Maybe. Maybe. We certainly don't have enough of a track record to make that charge -- it's possibly that he goes to high-A next year and starts off ice cold. But as of right now, no, it is not streaky. To date, there is a pre-adjustment struggle and post-adjustment improvement. 

[Monkeypaws]

My hope is that th Twins will one day return to being an organization that relies on guys they've drafted and developed as opposed to the AAAA filler they've relied on thru these dark years. Hopefully Wiel can be part of this.

[clutterheart]

Wiel made an adjustment and was hitting the ball better in the second half of the season. That's a process improvement.

 

Hopefully its an improvement that sticks.