Article: Out Of Control

[Nick Nelson]

During their reign over the American League Central, from 2002 through 2010, the Minnesota Twins never once allowed more runs than the league average.

 

A far cry from their current state, to say the least.The Twins are on their way to allowing the most runs of any American League team, for the second time in three years. They've been in the bottom three every season since 2011, with the exception of last year when they were ninth.

 

So, things have taken a turn.

 

The franchise appeared to be emerging from its run prevention rut last year but instead, the worst was yet to come. Entering play Thursday, the Twins had allowed 128 more runs than the Rangers. That's 50 more than the gap between between No. 14 Texas and No.1 Cleveland.

 

It's a mess made possible by a pitching staff that has already, with two weeks left to go, allowed more home runs than any Twins staff since the turn of the century, and a defense that has converted the lowest percentage of balls in play into outs of any MLB club. It's been a team effort.

 

As a result, the Twins may lose 100 games despite an offense that's on pace to score 750 runs. There have been seven 100-loss teams since 2010, the last time Minnesota made the playoffs, and none scored more than 615 runs.

 

Obviously, the reimagined front office needs to do whatever they can to prevent anything like this from happening again. The lineup isn't going to slow down. But with the Twins being so far behind the pack on the other side, how can they make up massive ground in a hurry? How can they move back toward the era in which they never failed to field an above-average staff?

 

I thought it might be instructive to take a look back at those years. Where have the Twins strayed? What lessons, if any, might a new baseball ops chief be wise to absorb while incorporating his or her own fresh philosophies?

 

Here were some signatures of those effective 2000s pitching units:

 

1: Health

 

Sure, those groups had some injuries here and there. That's inescapable. But when you look back, Johan Santana was remarkably durable during his time in Minnesota, and Joe Nathan basically never got hurt until his Tommy John surgery. It sure helps to keep your No. 1 starter and closer healthy for such lengths of time.

 

For me, the leading storylines when looking back at this year's pitching woes will be the ruined shoulders of both Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins.

 

The organization sought to build around these two in a similar fashion as they did with the aforementioned duo. Hughes' performance in 2014 was, arguably, the closest approximation to 'ace-like' for a Twins starter since Santana's departure. Perkins, like Nathan before him, moved into the league's elite tier of closers almost instantly after assuming the role ahead of his 30th birthday.

 

Terry Ryan made long-term commitments to Hughes and Perkins, positioning them as building blocks for the construction of his staffs. And unfortunately, both have descended essentially into worst-case scenarios with their arms. Shoulder injuries are tough, and Santana himself is evidence enough of that.

 

Could Ryan have foreseen this outcome? Maybe last year, but by then both hurlers were entrenched as cornerstones. Could the trainers have prevented it? Doubtful. In this regard, the former GM got dealt a bum hand, and it's a big part of why he's now the former GM.

 

2: Hitting Lotto Tickets

 

Santana and Francisco Liriano were the two most electric starters to come through the system during those years, and Ryan managed to stumble upon both, more or less, through serendipitous happenstance.

 

Santana was a Rule 5 pick, foolishly discarded by two organizations. Liriano was a toss-in from the Giants in the A.J. Pierzynski trade. TR capitalized on both opportunities and hit big. In the years since, he had no shortage of Rule 5 pick-ups or trades for fringey pitchers, but the big hits evaporated.

 

Alex Meyer and Trevor May weren't so different as prospects from Liriano; big arms with questions surrounding control and/or mechanics. But the inability of either to even define a role in the majors has been a big part of the failure to launch on the pitching front. This brings us to our next item.

 

3: Developing Control

 

When the Twins acquired Johan, he could hardly find the zone. Tethered to him as a Rule 5 pick, they endured a rookie season in 2000 that saw him issue 54 walks in 86 innings. They helped him find his way, as they did with many others. The Twins both sought out and developed pitchers who could hammer the zone.

 

Sure, it was a specialty of pitching coach Rick Anderson, but he didn't get moldable strike-throwers like Brad Radke and Carlos Silva and Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn by accident. The team actively sought out such profiles, through trades and the draft, and converted them into big-leaguers who succeeded mainly by throwing the ball to the right spot.

 

It's hard to figure where this process has gone amiss. There are still signs that prospects are receiving effective instruction. Jose Berrios had outstanding walk rates throughout the minors. J.T. Chargois had dramatically improved his control by the time he reached Triple-A. But something's not clicking when they make the jump.

 

The Twins actually rank near the top of the league in walk rate overall – one of their lone strengths – but too many of the most important guys aren't figuring it out.

 

It doesn't reflect well on Neil Allen, whose job is undoubtedly in jeopardy. When the Twins assembled a coaching staff for Paul Molitor, they took a gamble on a pitching coach with no major-league experience. There is no evidence that it's paying off. Too many players are failing to grow, or worse regressing, under his watch.

 

Perhaps the Twins would be well served to replace him with a more experienced alternative, who better balances Molitor's lack of experience in the area. Dare I say they should seek a coach who instills an Anderson-esque "throw it over the plate at all costs" mentality?

 

I do believe all of this pales in comparison to one final element.

 

4: Defense

 

During the decade where "The Twins Way" was forged and worshipped, defense was always a foundational staple. It's what made 'pitch to contact' work. Ryan coveted glove-first players, to the extent that he ran out Doug Mientkiewicz as a longtime regular at first, made Juan Castro an Opening Day shortstop, and basically eschewed the DH position for many years.

 

Playing defense – from making plays to executing basic fundamentals – has been a struggle for this current group. And while that's not a simple problem to solve, it's one that must be attacked from all angles during the offseason. Whether it's personnel, coaching or placement, everything must be critically evaluated.

 

What steps would you take toward reversing the Twins' run prevention woes? What lessons from the past would you apply to the future?

 

Click here to view the article

[The Wise One]

Refining control has not happened under Allen. I really think he was Ryan's hire,. The other side of the coin is that he was well regarded as a minor league coach.  Marty Mason was in the Cardinals organization a long time. Do coaches forget things when hired by the Twins, or is it an organizational philosophy on how to pitch that has become flawed?

[T_J]

I think the defense will be on the up-swing next season as the younger players get more time. The outfield could be outstanding. If we somehow flip Dozier that leave second to Polanco and Escobar at short to start the season. Mauer at first is doing just fine. Third would be the only question mark and if this is what we rolled out opening day for defense, we could roll with a weak fielding third baseman. If we don't flip Dozier(I can't see us finding a proper trade partner unless we accept the fact that is value isn't really all that high)  we will continue be weak up in the infield for the time being. Some very slick fielding Shortstops in the minors. 

 

Now, they will just need to find a couple of pitchers that can actually pitch...

[Kwak]

Yielding "extra outs" will be disastrous to pitchers over the season. It's not just errors charged but also "plays not made". Baseball pays players a lot more for their "offense" than for their "defense". Players notice this and focus on hitting more than fielding and power hitting more than before. Extra outs combined with more emphasis on "power hits" results in more runs allowed. The answer isn't as simple as "fewer walks", it also must include "better quality" strikes. Especially those that miss bats.

[Boom Boom]

Re: Hughes... maybe Ryan couldn't have forseen the shoulder injury, but that doesn't excuse the foolish contract extension.

[Tommygun921]

I believe that there's a difference in the pitching coaches philosophies and ideas on mechanics between the minors and majors. Seems like theyre trying to fix Berrios after one start in MLB. Maybe it's because Allen came from outside the Org and everyone else is from within. Also free agent signings, trades havent worked out worth a damn, and the added pressure of playing on a struggling team and trying to do to much doesnt help.

[EddieMatthews]

Tightening the defense will improve the pitching results.  When a good pitch results in an error or misplay, the pitcher's attitude is tested.  In 2017 the outfield should be better.  

 

The infield will not be better.  Sano, Polanco, Dozier, Vargas  (Mauer DH?) and catcher by committee will leave something to be desired.  

 

The rotation needs shoring up.  After Santana and Santiago (?) the rotation is wide open.  Maybe a new coach will get Gibson and Berrios to throw strikes.  May or Hughes or Duffey will need to step up.  

[Mike Sixel]

It is certainly frustrating. Over the last how many years.....the only pitchers they have drafted, or traded for, and developed that have had success are Gibson, Duffey, and ????. It really is all about this. Whether that is draft position, bad luck, or whatever.....they have pretty much relied on FAs the last couple of years, FAs purchased that had little upside (or none). It hasn't worked. Until they get even close to mediocre, the offense won't be good enough to matter, imo.

[gunnarthor]

Adding to this, the Twins used to have a roving pitching instructor - Rich Knapp, IIRC - who went to all levels of the minors to help pitchers with their control. I remember he got a lot of credit within the organization. Eventually he was hired away by the Tigers and fired after a few disappointing years for their hitters.  It seemed strange.  

 

As to defense, it might not be a strength next year but it might not be the hot mess either.  Most defensive stats mark the worst players as back-ups and guys not here anymore.  Mauer, Dozier, Polanco and Rosario all sort of grade out as average.  Buxton grades out above that.  Sano at third is, depending on the stat, avg or slightly below and Kepler in RF is the same way.  One way to help might be to get a better defensive framing catcher so Twins pitchers (Gibson) might get a few more calls in the bottom of the zone?  If Buxton hits enough, he'll cover enough ground in center.  They could also target a strong defensive short stop and move Polanco to third and Sano to DH (although that hurts the offense and means Vargas is gone and Park is a bench player full time).  

[Mike Sixel]

It is hard to see both Park and Vargas on this team together...

[Kwak]

 

It is hard to see both Park and Vargas on this team together...

"hard"? How about Dean and Albers in the rotation at the same time?

[wsnydes]

 

Refining control has not happened under Allen. I really think he was Ryan's hire,. The other side of the coin is that he was well regarded as a minor league coach.  Marty Mason was in the Cardinals organization a long time. Do coaches forget things when hired by the Twins, or is it an organizational philosophy on how to pitch that has become flawed?

When Leo Mazzone left Atlanta to go to Baltimore, the staffs that he had there weren't all that good either.  It's not as though he forgot how to coach by heading north.  Talent has a lot to do with results.  The best coaches find a way to maximize what talent a player does possess though.

[TheLeviathan]

If we roll out Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler for a full season in the outfield we may see dividends right there.

 

The problem is from catcher and around the infield we have a ton of question marks.

[Dantes929]

 

It is hard to see both Park and Vargas on this team together...

The first 75 games it was more difficult to see Plouffe, Sano, Park, Arcia, Escobar, Santana, Suzuki, Murphy, Buxton, Dozier, Mauer and Rosario on the team together.  

I'm not going to worry about Park until he performs better in the minors.  I have a hard time seeing Plouffe, Sano, Vargas and Mauer on this team together.   For much of his career I did not like Plouffe and now I do but still think he is the odd man out.

[Mike Sixel]

 

"hard"? How about Dean and Albers in the rotation at the same time?

 

Ha, different kind of hard for sure, but yes, hard, very hard.

[HitInAPinch]

A couple things:

 

Hughes:  This is the same thing that happened with the Yankees.  Exactly.

Perkins:  Years of over use to just to get him cheap Saves.

 

Johan Santana:  no other recent or current Twins pitcher should ever be mentioned in the same breath.  Twins'll need at least one of him with the current pitching "prospects".

 

Developing Control:  STOP OVERTHROWING!  Twins somehow got it in their heads they needed hard throwers, big fastballs.  I really don't see anyone on the roster that can do that successfully.

 

Playing Defense "has been a struggle for this current group".  LOL.   Yeah.  Somewhere along the way, they started an Offense push.  Just like the big push for "big fastballs" pitching staff.  Gotta take a 2nd look at "The Twins Way".

 

Next......

 

[andrewlipkin]

I think a huge portion of the sea change in runs prevented comes from outfield butchery.

 

Chris Parmelee

Old Man Jason Kubel

Delmon Young

Josh Willingham

Danny Santana

Oswaldo Arcia

Robbie Grossman

Miguel Sano

 

This is not a list of players who have bad range but make the routine plays. I don't have a gripe with Old Man Torii. This is a list of players who get late jumps, break back on balls in front of them, collide with the center fielder, dive and miss, clank balls off their gloves, try to kill every runner at the plate while giving up second base on a single, and have never played a carom correctly in their lives.

 

Chris Parmelee had multiple starts IN CENTER FIELD ARGLE BLARGLE!

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think a huge portion of the sea change in runs prevented comes from outfield butchery.

 

Chris Parmelee

Old Man Jason Kubel

Delmon Young

Josh Willingham

Danny Santana

Oswaldo Arcia

Robbie Grossman

Miguel Sano

 

This is not a list of players who have bad range but make the routine plays. I don't have a gripe with Old Man Torii. This is a list of players who get late jumps, break back on balls in front of them, collide with the center fielder, dive and miss, clank balls off their gloves, try to kill every runner at the plate while giving up second base on a single, and have never played a carom correctly in their lives.

 

Chris Parmelee had multiple starts IN CENTER FIELD ARGLE BLARGLE!

 

Sure, but it is also Albers, Dean, and about 10 others that are AAA/AAAA pitchers. This isn't just a defense issue.

[Willihammer]

IMO the pitching situation is a long-term problem that realistically won't be fixed for 2-3 years at least.

 

The defensive component is a smaller but still material factor that they could address by keeping guys in positions where their skills play up, not down. IE. no more DanSan or Rosario in center, get Sano out of the infield. At least put him on first base. Get Polanco off shortstop. And maybe the most important, find an above average glove / framer / game caller / CS at catcher.

[dxpavelka]

Ah.  The old days when we hated Rick Anderson.

[gocgo]

 

Developing Control:  STOP OVERTHROWING!  Twins somehow got it in their heads they needed hard throwers, big fastballs.  I really don't see anyone on the roster that can do that successfully.

 

 

Yeah.  The entire MLB has gone the way of the big throwers and the Twins are late to the party.  I wish they would buck the trend.  I'm not a proponent for the the following reasons:

 

1. More elbow and shoulder problems.

2. The faster the pitch, the further it goes.  Make the hitter generate their power.

 

Late movement is what the Twins should be looking for in a pitcher.  A 95 mph fastball that goes straight is easier to hit than a 90 mph fastball with late movement.

[jimmer]

 

Yeah.  The entire MLB has gone the way of the big throwers and the Twins are late to the party.  I wish they would buck the trend.  

They have been bucking the trend...

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

 

 

As to defense, it might not be a strength next year but it might not be the hot mess either.  Most defensive stats mark the worst players as back-ups and guys not here anymore.  Mauer, Dozier, Polanco and Rosario all sort of grade out as average.  Buxton grades out above that.  Sano at third is, depending on the stat, avg or slightly below and Kepler in RF is the same way.  One way to help might be to get a better defensive framing catcher so Twins pitchers (Gibson) might get a few more calls in the bottom of the zone?  If Buxton hits enough, he'll cover enough ground in center.  They could also target a strong defensive short stop and move Polanco to third and Sano to DH (although that hurts the offense and means Vargas is gone and Park is a bench player full time).  

 

I disagree with this--defense wont become a strength for a while--only Buxton grades out above average...Mauer and Dozier maybe average.  Rosario, Kepler and the rest mess up routine plays and give extra outs most games.  Next spring training--manager (hopefully somebody new) must work on fundamentals.  Buxton must start and stay in CF next year to cover for corner OF even if he barely hits above the Mendoza line.

 

[DocBauer]

Does anyone think that there is any room for growth from Polanco at SS?  I just don't see the Twins trading Dozier because his value won't get us a good enough return. It's hard to consign Sano to DH this early and IB won't be open.... Even if Mauer retires from some unnamed medical malady (as suggested by Ruesse), the team will try Vargas and Park.  I'm not sure Escobar is much of an upgrade any way. Seems like the plan will be to leave Polanco at short and hope he improves.

 

I think this is a very valid point of discussion. I don't pretend to know the answer, but, I can offer up some points that I think/believe to be interesting.

 

*When originally signed, Polanco as a defense first player with speed and athleticism. It was hoped his bat would eventually play, but he was a legit SS candidate.

 

*Like a lot of infield prospects, he split time at various spots in the infield, mostly between SS and 2B. That is, until this year where the Twins decided, for whatever reason, that he should play ZERO games or innings at SS despite the fact the minors are about player development. Despite very limited playing time, when the Twins brought him up the past couple of years, when he played, he was put at SS. And now that he's up for an extended look, Molitor has put him at SS most every day, despite not playing a moment of the spot in the minors this year.

 

*He hasn't exactly embarrassed himself at the spot despite having to almost re-acclimate himself to the position again. This in itself would indicate room to improve. Further, from all previous reports, he's a good athlete. The negatives I've heard have been footwork and less than powerful arm for the position.

 

Footwork? I thought that things like that weren't necessarily uncommon in young players and one of the reasons you kept them at a position, so you could actually work and teach them! This could be one of the few decisions Molitor has made that I actually like.

 

Arm strength? To a degree, it can be improved. But honestly, I'm more concerned with hands and the sheer ability to get to a ball than I am with having a cannon for an arm. Don't get me wrong, a strong armed SS who can make plays deep in the hole is valuable. But consistency is more important than the great play isn't it?

 

*As in all sports, and all positions, to a degree, you sometimes have to weigh and debate the value of a player vs what he does best vs what he does least. In other words, an outstanding defensive SS who doesn't have much offensive value is still valuable. But a strong offensive SS who is more average defensively has a strong value as well. It's just balanced differently.

 

*Just a bit of research will show some unexpected error totals early in their careers for a lot of "top" SS over the past 20-30 years. Why? Because they were still learning and developing. Which is all the more reason to be frustrated by the Twins decision this season to not continue Polanco's development at SS in the minors.

 

In short..no pun intended...there is need, potential and opportunity for Polanco at SS. Unfortunately, those in charge wasted a lot of opportunity to continue Polanco's development this season.

[DocBauer]

To address the points of the article, I offer the following thoughts IMHO:

 

1] Health: This is important to any team, any year, in any sport. But let's be honest and just admit the Twins got unlucky in this area the past couple of years. It sucks, but it happens. You have a true all star closer in Perkins to lead your bullpen who suddenly develops a very serious injury. Hughes's injury may have a even more dramatic affect. Forget the contract bungle because it has no bearing on actual talent, performance and reality.

 

Hughes was long regarded as a TOP talent. Virtually untouchable in trade options with the Yankees. And he absolutely flashed his potential as both a starter and reliever with NY. His numbers indicated he was better away from NY, and he DID flash ACE-like quality and performance with his change of scenery with the Twins. We can't say for certain, but it's now really hard to not look at his so-so 2015 season and not think injury was part of the problem there.

 

And maybe he makes a great and strong comeback. I hope like hell he does, but would not bank on it at this point. But health, like luck, is something you can't predict or bank on.

 

2] Lotto Ticket: How on earth do you count on or predict this any more than you can health? The answer is, you can't. Not really. BUT, you can hedge your bets if you're smart and prepared. Did the Twins predict/guess right in Santana and Liriano? Yep. Did the Cubs do the same with Arrieta? You bet. But don't tell me they KNEW they would end up with an ACE quality pitcher. A couple of years ago, as an amateur GM, I thought Kazmir was a roll of the dice that could pay off big. Turns out I was right. But did I KNOW? Not at all.

 

Position players, starters or reserves, relief or starting pitchers, the Twins have been lucky, or smart, or we'll prepared, however you want to quantify it, in the past. Even Hughes comes to mind. But I don't think you can expect or predict success in this area. BUT, I do think you can find at least some success in this area if you are thorough and smart in your decision making. Here is hoping the next GM has the for thought to target rebound or late developing options on a yearly basis that could pay off with low risk and high potential payoff. I'd rather invest some team finances here than a guaranteed 3 year deal on a mediocre 30yo mediocre starter.

 

3] Control: I have ZERO problem with the Twins making a change in general philosophy from looking for and drafting/signing control pitchers. For years we've admonished the Twins for drafting and signing such players while other teams took chances on big arms. Now they are doing that and we want to bash them??? The problem is not to be too cute about it, and outsmart yourself. And some of that is scouting. Maybe less drafting and trading for a relief pitcher to convert. I don't pretend to be smart enough to be employed by any ML franchise, but maybe the big, strong, hard throwing starter who needs a 3rd pitch is better than a guy with 3 nice pitches who hasn't done it as a starter is smarter. But potential is SOOO hard to predict. I still think it comes down to scouting and development.

 

Honestly, looking at some of the top pitching prospects currently in the Twins system, not sure I can blast them for poor decision making in this area.

 

4] Defense: Now this one is tough. But it's also hard to address because the Twins roster is it such a state of flux right now. An OF of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler has a chance, a good chance, to be very good. Metrics may argue somewhat, but we're also talking raw numbers in rather SSS vs talent and potential going forward. EX; Kepler loowed a little rough early before settling down. 1B is solid defensively, as is 2B. SS is a bit of a question, as is 3B. But for goodness sake, before we decide if a guy, a spot, the overall defense is OK or stinks, can we at least see guys actually play their positions and play them healthy.

 

I love good defense. I think good defense goes a long way toward building a good team overall, and can do a lot to help a pitching staff. The problem is, the guys from the past few years that played poor defense aren't even on the teamarket any longer, for the most part. And the team, as it's constructed now, just needs a little time. Healthy, a bit slimmer, with a gun for an arm and some nice athleticism, I feel Sano will be OK at 3B. But not 100% right now, and having to spend the majority of the season in tne OF doesn't do much for ýour defense, as an example.

 

Improving the bullpen and the defense would be a big help for the rotation, as it's constructed now, or will be a year or so from now. But 4-5 seasons of "who?" playing a spot is still different, IMO, than "OK, let's see how these kids play a year from now", healthy, in their proper spots, and with a few games under their belt?

 

No real answers, but some thoughts.

[Ncgo4]

I think one of the big solutions will depend upon which Sano shows up for spring training next year. He has certainly shown the skill to play a very good MJ 3rd base and his short stop background would support that. But at 260 - 280 lbs (pick a weight) he doesn't stand a good chance short term and no chance long term. He will continually find himself with nagging (or worse) injuries and have difficulty executing at the hot corner position.

 

If he is properly motivated and could come in at a reasonable weight he could easily be the super star that's now just beyond his reach. In stead of an off season with relatives in New York, could we send him to Puerto Rico to train with Berrios who seems to be motivated beyond imagination?

[shimrod]

The defense is one aspect of a problem that's been developing for years. In my opinion the team fundamentals have been on a downward trajectory since TK left. Gardenhire coasted on the reputation of the Kelly era Twins for years as the team regressed in defense, baserunning, and general baseball IQ. It infuriated me listening to the announcers blather about the Twins playing "the right way" as Gardy's players were picked off first, caught in run-downs, missed the cutoff man, etc. 

 

I had hoped the hiring of Molitor would turn the trend. So far I'm not seeing it. Maybe an attempt to hold the players accountable explains the new prospects sitting on the bench, a situation that has prompted many complaints at this site.

 

Improvement has to start in the minors. The fundamentals are the same at every stop from A to MLB, there's no reason prospects should appear ignorant of the basics when they reach Target Field.