Article: Unanswered Questions

[jimmer]

Miller is arguably the best reliever in the game, all things considered.  That's a heck of a ceiling to assign to Jay :-)

[Deduno Abides]

Sano is good at what he's good at, and not good at what he's not good at. I don't understand why people prioritize his improving his weaknesses over mastering his strengths. His strengths can be pretty amazing. I'd prefer he spend the winter working on pitch recognition, so he can become more selective, like Dozier, in swinging at the pitches he can crush and laying off the ones that give him trouble.

 

 

Bullpen: Rogers has done a nice job - against lefties. Like a lot of lefty specialists, however, he needs to be taken out when a right handed power hitter comes up. Bad results from that match-up are on the manager. Similarly, it seems obvious that Kintzler can be effective for one inning. Therefore, use him for one inning, but don't be disappointed when he tires in a second inning or the day after pitching in multiple innings. Again, play your players to their strengths; don't get frustrated when they fail when used in ways they are weak.

[dxpavelka]

 

Maybe the solution to the reliever & starter issues is to not screw with what your guys are used to.

 

Duffey & Jay were RPs in college. May has done nothing but start prior to midway last season. You're basically moving pieces around into more comfortable roles.

 

Not too complicated.

Amen.

[Mike Sixel]

I too would probably mostly use Rogers against lefties, and not against really good righty HR hitters....

[Nick Nelson]

 

From everything I've read (and please correct me if I'm wrong), the answer to the first question was 'yes'. His velocity was still above-average as a starter, and his breaking stuff was still above-average to plus. And he kept his stuff throughout starts despite regularly throwing 90+ pitches and facing 20+ batters. That was one pretty big hurdle that he needed to cross, and I think that he cleared it.

That all may be true but it's anecdotal. The numbers don't bear out any particular level of dominance. His 23.6% K-rate ranked 24th among FSL pitchers with 50+ innings. The strikeouts also tailed off significantly after the first 2 months. His other secondary markers were good-not-great. 

 

I realize these may seem like harsh assessments but when we're talking about a 22YO first-round draft pick out of college playing in Single-A, it seems warranted to me. I know not everyone agrees. 

[Vanimal46]

 

That all may be true but it's anecdotal. The numbers don't bear out any particular level of dominance. His 23.6% K-rate ranked 24th among FSL pitchers with 50+ innings. The strikeouts also tailed off significantly after the first 2 months. His other secondary markers were good-not-great. 

 

I realize these may seem like harsh assessments but when we're talking about a 22YO first-round draft pick out of college playing in Single-A, it seems warranted to me. I know not everyone agrees. 

That, and he only pitched 97 innings this year. Even with a modest 15-20% increase in IP, we're still a couple of years away from him being a legitimate 180-200 inning pitcher. 

[jimmer]

 

That, and he only pitched 97 innings this year. Even with a modest 15-20% increase in IP, we're still a couple of years away from him being a legitimate 180-200 inning pitcher. 

let's do the math.

 

A 20% increase would be around 117 innings (2017).  20% from that, 140 innings (2018).  20% from that 168 innings (2019).

[Vanimal46]

 

let's do the math.

 

A 20% increase would be around 117 innings (2017).  20% from that, 140 innings (2018).  20% from that 168 innings (2019).

Oh boy! By the time he's 26 he'll be up to speed and handle an average MLB SP workload. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

We knew that. But it would have been nice if this year could have been spent identifying some of that help. Outside of Santana, not one single starter has been even decent. 

 

I don't disagree, I was just responding to the idea that the rotation is an "unanswered" question.  I think the answer is there, it's just not one we like.

 

As far as particular pitchers are concerned I'd agree there are some questions - Will we move May back?  And do we move Santana?

 

But regardless of those answers, the question of "Do we need pitching help" is an obvious "Yes.  Lots of it"  That one is answered.

[Mike Sixel]

I'll be shocked if he pitches less than 140 innings next year, if healthy. Shocked. 

 

the 20% increase thing is a terrible piece of bad science.....

[jimmer]

 

I'll be shocked if he pitches less than 140 innings next year, if healthy. Shocked. 

 

the 20% increase thing is a terrible piece of bad science.....

it's not whether or not the science is bad, it's what the industry does based on it.  Sort of like pitch counts.

 

I have no idea how much he'll pitch next year.   Not sure he'll see an inning increase of almost 50%, especially since he was shut down (due to fatigue, was it?), but he could. 

 

In this case,  I was just having some fun doing the math :-)

Edited September 9, 2016 by jimmer

[Rosterman]

You have HIT some important unanswered questions.

 

CAN SANO PLAY THIRD. We have 20 games to figure that out, right now. Let him make 20 errors. But play him everyday. The move to the outfield was a mess and screwed up the twins bigtime. We ended up losing Arcia (maybe no loss, but then we blank out Walker for a looksee). But what if we had opened the season with an outfield of Arcia/Santana/Rosario. But then we had the Plouffe mess of where to play and Park at DH and...the Park decision was the real killer here. Buxton needed to start the season at AAA (as did Gomez and Hicks). Hindsight kills.

 

CATCHER OF THE FUTURE. Man, I would've started the season with John Hicks as backup and Murphy regular at AAA after spring training. But Murphy comes up and stinks, Hicks disappears because of the roster mishap that shouldn't have happened, and we see a lot of a guy named Centeno. We start the 2017 season with the same questions, but no Suzuki, which is a blessing in the long run.

 

TREVOR MAY. Even if you were going to send him to the bullpen, you groom him to be Anthony Swarzak 2016. You have him pitch multiple innings. None of this one worthless inning a day for 3-4 days scattered throughout a game. You establish a role so if a starter goes down, he can step in. that didn't happen. And they even skunked on grooming him as a closer. The whole Jepsen mess was a disaster.

 

THE BULLPEN. In an era where you start to clearly define the duties, the Twins overuse Pressly and Tonkin, have no longman, no strikeout king, and Kintsler is the closest they have a ground ball guy but they made him closer so he can only pitch when it looks like we will win. Even signing a bunch of guys like Abad, Ramirez, Mujica, Boshers, Burnett, Walden...it did nothing but get us...Light...who we could've signed in the first place ages ago and needs to be protected or will probably be claimed and sent to the minors by another team.

 

POLANCO. Did someone think that the team that couldn't rid itself of Plouffe was going to get blown away on an offer for Dozier, so this guy played second ALL year at Rochester. He didn't play one minor league game at shortstop, and he needs to stay come 2017. It looks like he will stay, at shortstop, for 2017 AND 2018. He can always move to second if Dozier becomes too expensive and Gordon or someone is the new shortstop. Nunez was the best thing about the team in the first half with power, stolen bases, average and it didn't matter if he made the plays because the team was losing. Once he left, it should've been Polanco right away. The miscues can continue at short and third base if you don't improve the pitching.

 

THE BIG STARTER. It is Ervin Santana and will be so again. You hope he has one more year in his psyche. But being the #1 starter and not getting to 10 victories because....... When was the last time a Twins team had no winning percentage starter. Ervin is making good money and wants to make more as much as he wants to win. That no one blew the Twins away with an offer is beyond me.  But I don't see Gibson OR Hughes coming to that spot in the rotation. We may see Berrios, may see Gonsalves, may even see Stewart surprise us...in 2018 or 2019.

 

THE JOE MAUER DILEMMA. A lot of money. His is a good solid player, but not doing anything thing...flashy. He's there. Being Don Mattingly now. Or Doug Mientkiewicz during his solid seasons. And he will remain there. You'd think if anyone would take him off our hands and if he has a chance to play with a contender, he would go for it. He was the dream of the team when we thought he would be our catcher thru eternity at best, a C/parttimeDH at worst.

 

After the 2016 season, we have no sure answers. We will be starting 2016 all over again in 2017. Can Sano play 3rd. Where does Plouffe go. Too many power hitters who strike out. A centerfielder that may/may not come to the ballpark and play. A rotation that is expensive but uncertain. A bullpen that is a total mess and all those prospect arms are, again, a year away. Do we stick with catching that is defensive or sign another old guy who is...an old guy. Nothing NOTHING was accomplished this year. Some guys shined after a year of not shining, but then the new guys this year may have an off-year next year. When will ALL the pieces come together and work together. 2015 was a winning season, a winning season just, and a surprise. It was something to build, possibly a tad on. But to die in a division which, on paper at the year's beginning was pretty even, but the Twins were still coming up behind because they didn't make many off-season changes - no one NO ONE thought they would outdo (still yet to see) their prior run of four losing seasons.

 

If one thing happened, Jim Pohlad recognized TOTAL SYSTEM FAILURE but is still stymied on how it got there and how to fix it.

[mlhouse]

Questions that have been answered.

 

1.  The Twins strategy of drafting college relievers and turning them into starters has been a huge failure.  

 

2.  The Twins do not have the right management, both on-field and front office,  in place to rebuild the team.

 

3.  Although the Twins are "patient" and methodical with their prospects, this does not translate into the minor league system developing the prospects, and despite this conservative approach Twins players are arriving at the major league level lacking fundamentals.

 

These are really bad answers for a team that has lost more than 90 games 5 out of the past 6 seasons.

 

 

[Nick Nelson]

 

Polanco should be their shortstop, no discussion.  There is zero reason that he should not be.

He would likely be one of the worst defensive starting shortstops in the league. I wouldn't call that "zero reason."

[jimmer]

I believe Polanco is a better shortstop than many are giving him credit for.

[TheLeviathan]

 

He would likely be one of the worst defensive starting shortstops in the league. I wouldn't call that "zero reason."

 

On what basis do you make that claim?

[Kwak]

If Polanco plays regularly--it should be at 2B.

 

Other questions that need answers: How much authority will the new executive really have? Pohlad has repeated his statement about Molitor will remain as manager. When Ryan was "relieved", Pohlad had stated that "...there are a lot of good people [in the organization]" implying that he doesn't for see "A Reign of Terror" this off-season. He also mentioned Anthony might remain. All of this alarms me that there is the real possibility of only incremental changes to both the Front Office as well as the team.

 

Other questions: a "rebuild" or simply a tweaking of the Active Roster every year for the next several years? A change in baseball philosophy--or will there be a different make-up strategy? 

[Thrylos]

 

He would likely be one of the worst defensive starting shortstops in the league. I wouldn't call that "zero reason."

 

According to a bunch of metrics here, he is better than Escobar, in a season that, like Sano, prepared for and played out of position until recently...

 

 

[DocBauer]

Why on earth you wouldn't take a high level prospect like Polanco, with his bat and potential, and NOT play him at a spot where he has played before, could still develop, and could fill a hole/need at the ML level is beyond comprehension to me. The minors are all about development!

 

They decided he couldn't play SS? Well they sure changed their mind about that now haven't they? Maddening!

 

Is Polanco a finished product at SS? No. But he can refine footwork and other mechanics with time. His arm can be strengthened somewhat as well. But my concern is his bat in the lineup, getting to and fielding balls. I will take that over a few deep throws from the hole he can't make. (in theory)

[Twodogs]

 

Why on earth you wouldn't take a high level prospect like Polanco, with his bat and potential, and NOT play him at a spot where he has played before, could still develop, and could fill a hole/need at the ML level is beyond comprehension to me. The minors are all about development!

They decided he couldn't play SS? Well they sure changed their mind about that now haven't they? Maddening!

Is Polanco a finished product at SS? No. But he can refine footwork and other mechanics with time. His arm can be strengthened somewhat as well. But my concern is his bat in the lineup, getting to and fielding balls. I will take that over a few deep throws from the hole he can't make. (in theory)

I wonder how many people think that maybe Polanco was being played at 2B this year because of the next future SS down in the minors??  Maybe they put him at 2B because they were assuming that there was another guy who is SS of the future.  But now that they see that Polanco seems to be able to hit at the MLB level they might be reconsidering??  Because in the end, they really don't know if the other SS prospect will be able to hit at all.

[Twodogs]

It appears that Berrios is not going to be what everyone thought he was going to be??  When you look at other talented young pitchers, Fernandez comes to mind, those guys seem to be able to get people out at a young age, because their stuff works both in the minors and in the majors.  Berrios probably will be good, but probably has shown enough to see that he isn't going to be the ACE.  Twins will need to trade for a legit frontline ACE to head their rotation for the next 4 - 5 years and have guys like Berrios, May, Duffy, Hughes, Santana, Santiago, etc....  fight it out for 2 through 5 in the rotation.  They have a young nucleous of Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Polanco, Rosario, Vargas, Dozier to score enough runs, to be successful they just don't have that shut down pitcher that can stop losing streaks and be the guy who wins playoff games if they ever get there.

[twinssporto]

The best way to tackle multiple issues/problems is to identify the one that plagues you the most and focus on that one first.  In this case it is pitching.  At this point of the season if the Twins really want to make an impact next year focus on one thing only: Pitching...forget the offense and other infielders.  That can sort itself out in the off season and next year in spring training.

 

At the moment I think the offense can take care of itself and most of the infield positions can get sorted out easily enough.

 

I would like see the new FO and coaches primarily focus on pitching.  Imagine if they just spent quality time doing that and ignore some of the other noises.  If they do that they may be able to put together a better bullpen and starting rotation.  

 

That doesn't mean you ignore opportunities with your other offensive players if something comes along. I'm just saying focus on the pitchers.  If we can improve those guys by 50% over this year it would be a huge improvement and make us much more competitive.  

 

The positive is that I think we have a good core of young, offensive players coming along (Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Sano, etc.) that give us a shot at being competitive soon.  It sort of reminds me of Puckett, Hrbek, Gaetti and Brunansky.  Plus we have a few veterans that can help too with Dozier and Mauer.

 

Unfortunately, I look at the arms we have now and don't see anything there that gets exciting.  Do we have multiple problems?  Yes.  I doubt we can fix them all so just focus on the arms for now.  Oh, and maybe a catcher too!

Edited September 11, 2016 by twinssporto

[Nick Nelson]

 

According to a bunch of metrics here, he is better than Escobar, in a season that, like Sano, prepared for and played out of position until recently...

Partial season defensive metrics are virtually meaningless.

 

 

On what basis do you make that claim?

Watching him. Listening to other, smarter people analyze him. Looking at the way the organization itself has handled him. I'm not saying he's a complete mess but the majority of starting MLB shortstops are actually stand-out defenders and he's just ok. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Partial season defensive metrics are virtually meaningless.

 

 

Watching him. Listening to other, smarter people analyze him. Looking at the way the organization itself has handled him. I'm not saying he's a complete mess but the majority of starting MLB shortstops are actually stand-out defenders and he's just ok. 

 

And yet, they are playing him at SS exclusively right now......

[Twodogs]

 

 

 

The positive is that I think we have a good core of young, offensive players coming along (Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Sano, etc.) that give us a shot at being competitive soon.  It sort of reminds me of Puckett, Hrbek, Gaetti and Brunansky.  Plus we have a few veterans that can help too with Dozier and Mauer.

 

Unfortunately, I look at the arms we have now and don't see anything there that gets exciting.  Do we have multiple problems?  Yes.  I doubt we can fix them all so just focus on the arms for now.  Oh, and maybe a catcher too!

 

This might be a good comparison!!  I mean what did the Twins eventually do??  They brought in Bert Blyleven who won a World Series with Pittsburgh and had currently been in Cleveland.  They paired him up with Frank Viola and wahla they were a contender.  I've been really down on Berrios lately and when I went back and looked at Viola, he went 4 - 10 in 22 starts his rookie season and then turned around and went 7 - 15 in 34 starts in his second season.  So I could be jumping the gun on Berrios not having Ace potential anymore.  But it is frustrating!!