Article: The Anti-Arcia: Rosario Resurrected In Rochester

[Han Joelo]

Rosario feels like he is a character in a story about a team that rises from the ashes to win a championship: "and in left field was hotheaded Eddie Rosario. He'd make you scratch your head in wonderment--both at his jaw dropping boldness and at his boneheaded hubris. He was the one at the plate with two outs in game seven of the series. Knowing his proclivity to swing 'like a drunken lumberjack' at anything within arms length of the plate--Manute Bols' arms, that is--the Cubs closer Chapman launched a 104 mph Scud Missile towards the brim of Rosario's cap. The rest, is history."

[bird]

 

Yes, he would be an excellent 4th OF but in order for that to happen the Twins need to have 3 other OF'ers that are better than him. Right now the only players with that chance are Kepler, Buxton and Palka but they are far from proven also. I will wait to call him a 4th OF'er until somebody supplants him as a starter.

 

Yeah, I agree 100% with jimmer and with this. We need three starting OFs who play smarter than Rosario does right now. Smarter overall play, better fundamentally, specially defensively, more disciplined at the plate. We can maybe count on some improvement from Rosario, but probably just enough to make him an excellent 4th OF. Not sure they have anyone in the minors who will fit that "better than Rosario" bill within the next year or so.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

That played bothered me as well. I would paid anything to see a manager pull an outfielder out of a game when they make a bad decision like that throw. 

Why pay money when you can watch it, over and over, for free?

 

If you remember, Molitor pulled Rosario out of the game the next half inning after this play.

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/6479266/v710269083/detmin-rosario-swipes-third-in-the-7th/?game_pk=447467

 

The title of the page "Rosario's heads-up base running" might be a little misleading if you believe like Molitor does that Rosario was wrong to take the extra base they were giving him.

 

 

[Tom Froemming]

Well, I didn't see this coming. Rosario is on the bench, which doesn't surprise me, but it's Logan Schafer in LF, not Grossman. Huh?

[Jham]

 

Not just a bad play though, this is a horrendous play. Even slow pitch softball players have the awareness to know that the lead runner doesn't matter, the one who matters is the guy rounding first. This isn't a mistake of aggression, it's a mistake of stupidity and a lack of awareness. Fully support Molitor sitting him - it's okay to be aggressive on the basepaths, it's not okay to not understand a pretty simple situation. Hopefully a day or two off will remind Eddie he needs to know where he is in the game.

 

If this were a reasonably competitive softball team, half the team would be yelling at the guy to use his head.

If Murphy holds on to the ball, the runner runs straight into the tag, and the game ends.  At that point, KC says the 3rd base coach made a horrendous play in sending the runner.  

 

Point is, there's a fine line.  1 out ends the game.  If they're giving us an out with dumb base running, take it.  I would say it was stupid if there was no outs or 1 out, but with 2, it's closer.  He may have seen the runner as a dead duck cinch.  Then he got excited and airmailed it slightly.  Ball still beat the runner, catcher still easily tags him out if he catches it.  (closer if the runner slides).  Let's say the throw gets the out 80% of the time.  The win expectancy calculator shows us to still have a 91% chance of winning those 20% of games we haven't already won.  By adding the values, we have a 98% chance of winning if Rosario makes the throw.  Let's say he doesn't make the throw, and the speedy Dyson stays at first.  They still have to score with 2 outs in that situation.  Win Expectancy calculator shows the Twins to have only a 93% chance of winning.  The "horrendous" play actually gave us a better 5% better chance of winning.  Now maybe you say Rosario only makes a good enough throw 50% of the time.  Winning 91% of the remaining 50% puts us at 95.5%.  A 1/3 chance at the out gives us a 94% chance of winning.  Basically, the throw needs to be successful less than a third of the time to be the right play.  The throw to the plate was probably actually the smart play.  

*Most interesting stat: the runner being at first vs second only changed the odds of winning by 2%!
https://gregstoll.dyndns.org/~gregstoll/baseball/stats.html#V.1.9.2.2 (calculator used)

 

I'll trade the chance to win the game on a throw to the plate from one of the best arms in the game for a 2% drop in win expectancy any day.  Molly owes the kid an appologie.  

 

Edited September 9, 2016 by Jham

[Platoon]

You're not misinterpreting the graphs. What you're looking at can be found on most any sports site. They are basic defensive stats that have been around for quite some time, no cutting edge info. That info can be found on ESPN, MLB dot com, Baseball-Reference, etc. I'm really not sure what the point of comparing CS to outfield assists is though.

Well you could view it as having an exceptional throwing left fielder, or a not so exceptional throwing catcher? It would be in the eyes of the beholder. Or the point might be that the OF'er throws well enough that one would even bother to think of such a comparison. Edited September 9, 2016 by Platoon

[IndianaTwin]

JHam, I was among the softball players yelling at the screen when he uncorked it, but you've convinced me. I'd even highlight a point you hinted at. Dyson is an 86 percent career stealer. You can argue that the throw only cost the Twins a base for one pitch. And the KC batter is not going to swing at the first pitch. Could one even suggest that a good OF is saying, "If I have any chance at all, I'm going home because a single is the same as a double with Dyson as the batter/runner"?

[kab21]

 

Well, I didn't say he's a 4th OF now, I said, 'It's why I think his future SHOULD BE 4th OF.'

 

Seems clear that the Twins DON'T have better options now so he's a starter now. Hopefully they will in the future.

 

It's like I don't call Santana an ACE type starter just because he's easily our best starter. His talent level says screams top notch 3 starter or the lower end of #2 starter, not Ace.

the Twins aren't really hurt if Rosario is their third best OF though. The Twins are hurt if he is their best OF or if Santana is their best starter. The difference between 3rd and 4th in either situation isn't that big of a deal.

[Doomtints]

Puckett used to make those throws, and Puckett was the reason Molitor came to the Twins.

 

Molitor can go and coach the Brewers if he has some other idea of how defenders should act.  The Twins have had outfielders doing that since the 80s.

 

As for Rosario, is it really surprising that he's not the bust some people want him to be?  He is still young and learning, and when he was striking out all the time at the start of the year, so was everyone else on the team.  The entire team was getting bad advice.

Edited September 10, 2016 by Doomtints

[wavedog]

I thought I would check how Arcia is doing in San Diego and in addition to getting off to a slow start batting  I saw this note:

 

Spin: Arcia made an embarrassing blunder in the outfield Tuesday when he allowed Mookie Betts to tag from second base and move to third when he casually fielded a shallow pop fly, so that may explain why he is starting Wednesday's game on the bench. The Padres are also facing lefty David Price, and Arcia is a career .228 hitter against southpaws, so that made the decision to sit him even easier. Jon Jay will start in right field and lead off in Arcia's place.

 

You have to figure when your on your 4th team of the year you might not want to keep making these type of mistakes.  He is still only 25 but he may be getting his last chance.  He sure has fallen far the past couple of years.

[Jerr]

 

I think too much is made of that throw to the plate. He took a risk. A good throw nails him he's out and the game ends if Murphy just hold on to the ball. Royals were giving us an out if you can execute the throw and catch. Dyson could have easily stolen and scored and we let a gettable out walk home. To me, it's similar to his getting thrown out stealing third to end the inning. If you're gonna try it, you better make it. I think he saw it as an easy out and a throw he can make 8/10 times. The risk probably outweighed the reward in that case, but probably not by as much as people are making it out to be. I think they didn't like the result. I mean, again, if murphy catches the ball, even with a fast from perfect throw, the runners out, game over.

I thought the same, if he would have been on line with the throw runner would have been out. Woulda been out by a lot!

[Thrylos]

Resurrected? 

I guess that was from Death by small sample size...

 

Right now (and he still is not on his prime,) Rosario is a very small IsoD guy.  Which means that his OBP is close to his BA.  And if that BA for whatever reason does not approach .270-.280, that OBP will not approach .300.  Maybe he will have a hitting coach who will help him take a ball here and there in the future.   He is still 24.

 

On the other hand the Twins OF is getting crowded, and he fell in the depth chart behind Kepler and Buxton.  Give Palka a good ST or two, and Rosario is a fourth OF.  On the other hand, the Twins should go back and re-switch his positions, strong arm on not.  They'd need someone to replace Dozier at 2B, and likely he can do it better than (let's say) Walker (another OF candidate for position change).

[ThejacKmp]

 

If Murphy holds on to the ball, the runner runs straight into the tag, and the game ends.  At that point, KC says the 3rd base coach made a horrendous play in sending the runner.  

 

Point is, there's a fine line.  1 out ends the game.  If they're giving us an out with dumb base running, take it.  I would say it was stupid if there was no outs or 1 out, but with 2, it's closer.  He may have seen the runner as a dead duck cinch.  Then he got excited and airmailed it slightly.  Ball still beat the runner, catcher still easily tags him out if he catches it.  (closer if the runner slides).  Let's say the throw gets the out 80% of the time.  The win expectancy calculator shows us to still have a 91% chance of winning those 20% of games we haven't already won.  By adding the values, we have a 98% chance of winning if Rosario makes the throw.  Let's say he doesn't make the throw, and the speedy Dyson stays at first.  They still have to score with 2 outs in that situation.  Win Expectancy calculator shows the Twins to have only a 93% chance of winning.  The "horrendous" play actually gave us a better 5% better chance of winning.  Now maybe you say Rosario only makes a good enough throw 50% of the time.  Winning 91% of the remaining 50% puts us at 95.5%.  A 1/3 chance at the out gives us a 94% chance of winning.  Basically, the throw needs to be successful less than a third of the time to be the right play.  The throw to the plate was probably actually the smart play.  

*Most interesting stat: the runner being at first vs second only changed the odds of winning by 2%!
https://gregstoll.dyndns.org/~gregstoll/baseball/stats.html#V.1.9.2.2 (calculator used)

 

I'll trade the chance to win the game on a throw to the plate from one of the best arms in the game for a 2% drop in win expectancy any day.  Molly owes the kid an apologia.  

 

Fun stats. There are things to add (e.g. ball gets by the catcher, a distinct possibility on a crazy throw like that) but the numbers are fun.

 

That said, this is where I think the win probability thing fails the real world test. When the team in the field is up 1, every risky play they make is going to seem good because it ends the game and anything bad only ties it. Under this logic, all kinds of crazy throws and plays become worth it when anyone who has played the game knows that bad plays and poor choices tend to snowball. It's where the stats can't replicate the feel of the game.

 

But still, fun thought-provoking stats.

[7r4de me]

C'mon Eddie, quit swinging at everything and then striking out--you are supposed to work the count full and THEN strike out. like the rest of the team