Article: Thoughts On Brian Dozier

[Willihammer]

The entire lineup isn't made up of streaky batters, so its a moot point. The entire lineup is made up of some average hitters and then a guy with an OPS that's .150 points higher than everyone else- Dozier.

If the rest of the lineup moved up to Dozier's batting line- regardless of how streakily or consistently they achieved it, this would be a much improved team.

[Jham]

 

My theory would be that when guys are feasting, their huge surge in production has a less meaningful impact on wins and losses because some of that surge is probably surplus that doesn't really decide games.  But long stretches of awful play can have an impact.

Yeah, but wouldn't some of the suckiness be a sucking in a deficit that also doesn't decide games? 

I mean, if you go 4 for 5 in a game you likely won, and other guys probably also had good games.  So I agree in the very short term, sort of. (Statistics would actually support the opposite notion, that 4/5 days have stronger correlation with winning than 0-5 days do for losing, but you're also more than 200% more likely to make an out than hit, so...)  But if you go 40 for 115 and have faced an array of pitchers, I would guess your winning percentage is similar over that stretch regardless of how you got there.  On the other hand, the idea that the same hits have different values depending on sequencing and clustering sort of turns our understanding of metrics on it's side.  I like that.  

On the other hand, you could calculate something like team OPS on a per game basis.  Then scatter plot the OPSs.  Then calculate standard deviations for that team to come up with a consistency rating.  Then compare consistency ratings between teams.  Then see if OPS consistency has a positive correlation with team winning relative to their expected winning percentage vis a vis the team's OPS and pitching.  If there is, calculate consistency ratings for individual players.  If not, no sense calculating it, no one ever hears about it, and threads like these continue debating it.

[hybridbear]

Could Dozier be traded for a frontline SP?

[Mike Sixel]

Bah, he didn't even hit a HR last night, did he? Bum.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Bah, he didn't even hit a HR last night, did he? Bum.

The Twins waited too long to trade him.

 

Typical.

[Everyday Eddy]

The "keep Dozier" crowd seems to me to be taking a very shortsighted look at the whole situation.   The twins need to be thinking 3 to 4 years ahead when there is a chance for our pitching and offense to match up.   There is no way we are turning the pitching staff around in 1 year,   so we may have a very good Dozier again next year but we will still be terrible.   Or else Dozier struggles and we blew a huge opportunity.   Why risk it?

[wsnydes]

 

Bah, he didn't even hit a HR last night, did he? Bum.

He's really mired in a slump, isn't he?  Should have dealt him two days ago when he was hot!

 

Just another missed opportunity.

 

Edit:  ah yes, ninja'd by Brock because I didn't keep reading the comments...

Edited September 8, 2016 by wsnydes

[dxpavelka]

 

As I said earlier, take a look at Robbie Cano from mid 2014 until July 1st 2015. I can't be sure on the exact interval, but he was lousy for most of a year (doing this from memory). Bad slumps happen to good players. For a long time, the longest position player hitless streak by a Twin belonged to a pretty good hitter-Butch Wynegar.

 

I think minor injuries figure into diminished performance, as well. I don't believe Dozier was completely healthy at the conclusion of last year.

If he wasn't healthy that would be the first we've heard of it.

[dxpavelka]

 

Uh, yeah. My point was that his 2015 numbers overall were still good. And his 2016 numbers overall are almost MVP worthy. There are peaks and valleys in any players' seasons. Would you honestly not take his exact 2016, or even his exact 2015 season every year?

Obviously you'd take 2016 every year-In part because he finished strong. .  And, NO, I wouldn't take his 2015 every year-In part because he did NOT finish strong. 

Edited September 8, 2016 by dxpavelka

[dxpavelka]

 

Uh, yeah. My point was that his 2015 numbers overall were still good. And his 2016 numbers overall are almost MVP worthy. There are peaks and valleys in any players' seasons. Would you honestly not take his exact 2016, or even his exact 2015 season every year?

Obviously you'd take 2016 every year.  But, let's be honest, the reason you'd take 2016 is because it's not his 2015.  And, NO, I wouldn't take his 2015 every year. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

The entire lineup isn't made up of streaky batters, so its a moot point. The entire lineup is made up of some average hitters and then a guy with an OPS that's .150 points higher than everyone else- Dozier.

If the rest of the lineup moved up to Dozier's batting line- regardless of how streakily or consistently they achieved it, this would be a much improved team.

 

Sure, if everyone got a .150 OPS boost that would be awesome.  The point is, if you have a bunch of .700ish OPS players, would you rather have them consistently be that or spend half the season being unplayable and the other half on fire?

 

Personally, I'd take the consistent bunch.  I wasn't blaming Dozier for anything this year, just speaking more generally.