Article: Thoughts On Brian Dozier

[stringer bell]

Let me preface what will undoubtedly be a long entry by saying I am a Dozier fan. I have spoken to him at spring training a couple of times and like the young man. I believe he has been the Twins MVP for each of the last four seasons, including this one, and I have no doubt that he is the team's best player at this point. Certainly he isn't flawless, but the Twins need more players like Brian Dozier, not fewer.Over the course of this long, horrible season, Brian Dozier has often been a hot topic of conversation in Twins Territory. He isn't shy about stepping up to a microphone, my wife and daughters think he's good-looking and he's been a regular with the club as their second baseman for four years. If someone casually follows the Twins, he knows who Dozier is, so it figures that he would be a topic of conversation.

 

Let's see why Dozier has been discussed so much and what I think should be the conclusion of the topic: First of all, when the season started, Dozier couldn't get it going. After a bad second half in 2015, Dozier came out of the gate slow in 2016. Through all of April and May, Dozier barely reached .200 and the signature power was lacking. Had the league figured him out? Was the 28 year old (turned 29 in mid-May) regressing already? Should he be benched or put at the bottom of the order? My thought, then and now, was that it is a long season. If a guy is a good player, he'll come out of a funk. Robbie Cano had a similar stretch at the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015 and Cano might be a Hall-of-Famer. Along for the ride early in the season were the questions of whether BD was too pull-happy and if he used the whole field, would he be a more consistent and productive hitter. My thought was that Dozier needed to be able to hit the ball with authority when he was pitched away and as the season has progressed, he has accumulated some oppo hits and several to the middle of the field, the key being that he hit the ball hard, not lazy popups or routine fly balls.

 

Moving on, Dozier has spent most of the season hitting #1 or #2. Many have thought it wasn't ideal for a guy whose calling card is big power to hit first or second. My thought then was that the Twins simply didn't have a better option. Dozier takes some of the longest at-bats on the team, he's walked a fair amount since arriving in the majors and he's a good base runner who doesn't clog the bases for those behind him. Ideally, he should have hit lower in the order to make a few more of his homers multi-run shots and I think that where Dozier hits in the lineup in 2017 will be a hot controversial topic if he is in a Twins' uniform next year.

 

As the season rolled toward the All-Star break, the calls to sell and rebuild the Twins included Dozier's name prominently. He had some value and the club is/was going nowhere in '16, so cashier him for a prospect or two and let Jorge Polanco handle second base. In June and July, Dozier recovered from his slow start. He put up a great line in June, posting an OPS for the month in excess of 1.000. He slowed in July, hitting only .240 but still putting up an OPS of .824. Trade Dozier at the deadline? Didn't happen and IMHO shouldn't have happened. He hasn't slowed down much since his monster June and with a team-friendly contract and relative youth, his value should only be higher in the off-season or at next year's trade deadline.

 

Another topic that has emerged is defense. After a truly stout year in 2013, Dozier's defense has been categorized as below average by most metrics. While I don't believe Dozier is elite defensively, my eyes tell me he is in the average range. He makes a few outstanding plays (probably more than any other Twins player) and doesn't get to some balls he should, perhaps because of shifting, maybe because the position of shortstop has been in flux since he became a second baseman, maybe because in three of the last four years, the team never had a shot at contention. I don't know. In checking BB Ref, Dozier lags in zone rating but is above average in runs saved. I see it as a wash, making Dozier average in the field. I'm waiting for someone to refute this, but in the final analysis, defense probably is an "eyes of the beholder" topic.

 

Since the All-Star break, Brian Dozier has been en fuego. He's hitting .320, with an OPS of 1.091 and an MLB-leading 21 homers. I guess that puts to rest the "first half player" meme that was circulating among the diehard fans who remained. The question that stems from his performance in both the cold April and May and his elite performance since is what to expect going forward.

 

I have turned over in my mind what the most likely trajectory of Dozier's career figures to be. One extreme is Dan Uggla, who like Dozier wasn't highly regarded, got a chance in his mid-twenties and became a star in large part because of his power numbers. Uggla fell off a cliff in his early thirties. An opposing example is Jeff Kent. Kent was an okay player, but not even a full-time regular until he was 29. Starting from age 30, Kent won an MVP, was an All-Star five times with three different teams and posted OPS+ numbers over 119 every year until he was 39. These seem to be the extremes for power-hitting second basemen. Is Dozier going to be productive for most of another decade or is regression going to meet him around his 30th birthday? My answer is that no one knows for sure. It appears to me that Dozier has made adjustments to become a more complete hitter without diminishing his best asset--home run power. This makes him a candidate to sustain high-end performance, although his work from mid-2015 through May of this year give a good argument that he could turn into a pumpkin at any time.

 

In the last few weeks as the tumult in my life has moved Twins baseball onto the back burner, I've managed to check the box scores, cluck over the disastrous pitching and watch highlights of games. Dozier has been front and center continuing his power surge. He now projects to exceed 40 homers and if he hits just one more long ball, he will have hit more in a single season than any Twin since Harmon in 1970. 40 homers would be a Top Ten season in franchise history dating back to the Senators who started playing at the turn of the 20th century. Only Harmon and Roy Sievers (once) have ever hit 40 homers in a single season in franchise history. Dozier is projected to score and drive in over 100 runs, also a rare feat, especially for a guy who has hit first or second most of the season. He may or may not make 40 homers, 100 RBIs or 100 runs, but on such a bad team those numbers stand out big and bold.

 

Although I'm not a big fan of WAR, it does represent a quick and dirty assessment of value and Dozier's 5.6 WAR for this season is in the Top Ten in the league. Because the season has been so bad, I don't think Dozier has gotten the attention he deserves for his huge season. He won't win a Silver Slugger or MVP, he won't win the HR championship or set any other records, so there hasn't been any national coverage, but his overall season and particularly his production since June have been off the charts.

 

Now in the season's final month, most Twins fans are thinking about the future (with good reason). Augmenting a terrible rotation is Priority One and trading Brian Dozier to get pitching help makes sense, since his value should be at an all-time high. This argument is buttressed by the play of Polanco, who has hit over .300, showed good on-base skills, but a questionable glove at short or third. I believe Jorge Polanco is best suited to second base and I believe adding him for Dozier wouldn't be all bad since Polanco is a switch hitter and wouldn't be prone to long slumps with his swing and approach. However, unless the payoff is monumental, Brian Dozier should be the Twins second baseman next year. He has had a season for the ages despite the wreckage around him, he's only 29 and if the last 100 days are an indication, he might get even better. Finally, he's been a solid citizen off the field. If the club wants somebody as the face of the franchise, they could do worse than Mr. Dozier.

 

Just a couple more thoughts before I summarize--Dozier has been durable. Since becoming the team's second baseman, he hasn't been disabled and has missed only a handful of games with injuries. Secondly, my observation is that he is a good teammate. He doesn't sulk, cheers for his mates, appears to like their company off the field (loved the State Fair video) and despite having strong religious views, doesn't put that in the face of his teammates or the media.

 

I have mentioned many of these thoughts in previous threads on the forums of Twins Daily. I find this player to be fascinating, especially in light of his minor league career and low status when drafted. I think Brian Dozier is a fine player who hasn't gotten the appreciation he deserves for this, his best season. I will continue to be a Dozier fan, even if he is traded, but hopefully he continues as a Minnesota Twin. In the event that he is traded, I will be pulling for the players acquired in return and hope they make the Twins better.

 

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[Mike Sixel]

Brian Dozier is a great MLB player, and seems like a decent guy. I just wish there was pitching on this roster, or READY in the minors, so they could keep him. Alas, I don't think there is, and I think he's so good that they can get a haul for him.

 

If it isn't a haul, I keep him.

[Doomtints]

The majority of Twins fans seemed to underestimate Dozier at the beginning, calling his first season a "fluke" and predicting a "regression."  His power was no mirage and he proved the naysayers wrong.

 

My opinion on Dozier is that he is a solid guy to build a team around.  He never seemed like a "leader" in that he's not the guy you need to lift up young guys.  But he is a good, dependable player who has a lot of power.  Dozier is a great contributor but not a leader.  On the right team with the right lineup he is an extremely dangerous hitter.  On a team not filled with such players, maybe not so much ... as his three home runs in a 5-run loss yesterday can attest.  

 

Let's be realistic, though.  As far as his power goes, this is probably his peak year.  Waiting in the wings, we have Polanco. I am extremely high on Polanco, I fully expect him to be as good as Dozier offensively and an upgrade defensively.  This is a gift-wrapped opportunity to move a good player and fill a different hole.  Dozier can go off to a team like the Yankees and continue to have a good career and the Twins can still be improved by losing him.  This could be a true win-win trade.

[Mike Sixel]

An article on him:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-brian-dozier-put-together-a-season-for-the-ages/

 

[mazeville]

I think Dozier's second half is proof positive why one single player cannot a great team make. 

 

Dozier is having one of the best seasons any second baseman has ever had, and yet the Twins are on pace to lose 100 games. This team NEEDS pitchers badly.

 

The good thing is Dozier is at peak value and should command a pretty hefty package in a trade. As much as I'd hate seeing him go, I think you trade him for pitching.  

[Doomtints]

 

I think Dozier's second half is proof positive why one single player cannot a great team make. 

 

Dozier is having one of the best seasons any second baseman has ever had, and yet the Twins are on pace to lose 100 games. This team NEEDS pitchers badly.

 

The good thing is Dozier is at peak value and should command a pretty hefty package in a trade. As much as I'd hate seeing him go, I think you trade him for pitching.  

 

Depends on the player, but yeah Dozier isn't a guy who can carry the team.

 

A good comp here is Pierzynski/Mauer.  Pierzynski was a good player for his position.  The Twins moved him because they had a better player coming up in the same position.  The Twins cleaned up and had a nice run.  Pierzynski went on and had a great career, too.

 

The Twins have the same opportunity with Dozier/Polanco.  If the new front office does not make this move it is not a good sign.

Edited September 6, 2016 by Doomtints

[jimmer]

Trout is the best player in baseball and he cant carry a team. He has the same problem Dozier has. His team has no pitching.

 

Its a myth any one player can carry a team, especially in baseball.

Edited September 6, 2016 by jimmer

[scottz]

My mom won't like it (she literally clutched her chest when I mentioned the possibility of trading Dozier a couple of weeks ago), but if the deal is right, make it happen.

[RedBull34]

Couple of thoughts. At this point if Dozier doesnt win a Silver Slugger, the award has no credibility.

 

Second, the Pierzynski/Mauer comp doesn't quite work for me, because I don't see Polanco being better then Dozier. However he would fill the role admirably. I don't want to see Dozier grt traded, but if he does, I see a fantastic package coming over for him.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Couple of thoughts. At this point if Dozier doesnt win a Silver Slugger, the award has no credibility.

Second, the Pierzynski/Mauer comp doesn't quite work for me, because I don't see Polanco being better then Dozier. However he would fill the role admirably. I don't want to see Dozier grt traded, but if he does, I see a fantastic package coming over for him.

 

You mean besides Altuve and Cano also having a shot?

[s1xthw1]

 

You mean besides Altuve and Cano also having a shot?

Exactly.  Hard to believe that the leading hitter in the league (Altuve) with a .966 OPS and a 7.4 WAR won't win a silver slugger. 

[dxpavelka]

It might be nice to be talking about a guy who puts together great SEASONS not half seasons.  Had he tacked this years 2nd half on to last year's 1st half we just might have made the playoffs.  Had he started this year the way he finished or even the way he started last year who knows how much differently things may have played out this year.  At least IF he finishes out this year the way he's played the last 3 months he will have put together a 4 month season rather than the 3 month seasons we've grown accustomed to.

[jimmer]

 

Couple of thoughts. At this point if Dozier doesnt win a Silver Slugger, the award has no credibility.

 

Unless Altuve wins it, and he probably will and should

Edited September 6, 2016 by jimmer

[Joe A. Preusser]

It might be nice to be talking about a guy who puts together great SEASONS not half seasons.  Had he tacked this years 2nd half on to last year's 1st half we just might have made the playoffs.  Had he started this year the way he finished or even the way he started last year who knows how much differently things may have played out this year.  At least IF he finishes out this year the way he's played the last 3 months he will have put together a 4 month season rather than the 3 month seasons we've grown accustomed to.

This is awfully cynical. His overall stats from last whole year and this whole year are still quite good by themselves. No player is exactly as good every game of the year, this isn't a video game, we are talking about a human being. Does Dozier appear more streaky than other players? Sure. But who cares?

[bluechipper]

After yesterday's 3 HR game, the national media is starting to recognize Brian Dozier's great season. I remember several times seeing "Brian Dozier's hot 2nd half continues, with 3 HR game" (or something like that) scroll across in "The Lead" while watching the FSU/Ole Miss game. 

[bluechipper]

And there's basically no way I'd trade Brian Dozier this offseason. I can't envision the return I would want matching what teams would be willing to give up.

[Mike Sixel]

 

And there's basically no way I'd trade Brian Dozier this offseason. I can't envision the return I would want matching what teams would be willing to give up.

 

Then how does the team get better in the next 2 years, while he's here?

[bluechipper]

 

Then how does the team get better in the next 2 years, while he's here?

I guess I'd hope for internal improvement from Berrios and Gibson. Maybe sign a #4/5 guy in free agency, and/or make a more minor trade.

 

What are we expecting for a return for Dozier? An MLB guy (Chris Archer, Steven Matz) or a top minor leaguer (one of Glasnow/Taillon, Jose de Leon, Giolito)? Just throwing a few names out for fun.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Couple of thoughts. At this point if Dozier doesnt win a Silver Slugger, the award has no credibility.

Second, the Pierzynski/Mauer comp doesn't quite work for me, because I don't see Polanco being better then Dozier. However he would fill the role admirably. I don't want to see Dozier grt traded, but if he does, I see a fantastic package coming over for him.

The Pierzynski/Mauer comp is terrible.

 

Mauer was the consensus #1 prospect in baseball, a nearly flawless prospect at age 21.

 

2016 Jorge Polanco is not 2004 Joe Mauer.

[wsnydes]

 

I guess I'd hope for internal improvement from Berrios and Gibson. Maybe sign a #4/5 guy in free agency, and/or make a more minor trade.

 

What are we expecting for a return for Dozier? An MLB guy (Chris Archer, Steven Matz) or a top minor leaguer (one of Glasnow/Taillon, Jose de Leon, Giolito)? Just throwing a few names out for fun.

The question I would have then is, can a team coming off of a 100 loss season afford to do very little to improve a pitching staff that will finish near or at the bottom of every statistical category?  That's basically what they did last season.  I'd expect Berrios to improve.  I'm not sure what to expect out of Gibson at this point.  So if Berrios turns the corner, that gives you a rotation of Santana and Berrios and at least three giant question marks.  That's still ignoring the bullpen...again.

 

Since the FO didn't make any moves, I was hoping for improvement from within heading into this season.  I wasn't thrilled with that approach last season, and I'm not willing to go down that road again.  After five 90+ loss seasons out of six, it's time for a different approach.  Something needs to change.

Edited September 6, 2016 by wsnydes

[Mike Sixel]

Berrios has to do more than "improve" next year......he has to take a massive leap for this plan of hope to work. Not a small leap, not a big leap, a leap of moving from giving up 5 runs in 5 innings, nearly every start.....to, what? 2 runs every 7 innings or so to be the ACE type? Is that the expectation we should have next year?

[wsnydes]

 

Berrios has to do more than "improve" next year......he has to take a massive leap for this plan of hope to work. Not a small leap, not a big leap, a leap of moving from giving up 5 runs in 5 innings, nearly every start.....to, what? 2 runs every 7 innings or so to be the ACE type? Is that the expectation we should have next year?

Agreed.  Even if he does put up ace type numbers, there's still a large amount of improvement needed elsewhere in the pitching staff.  I can't rely on that happening, and neither should the FO.  

 

Any improvement from Berrios should just be considered a start towards a solution.

[Halsey Hall]

I'm torn between trading him or not. But I certainly don't want to see another season like this one. So, if we keep him, he can play an adequate 2nd base and provide much needed offense. If he goes, we'd best get a top arm, and lose some offense.

 

The to be named powers of this organization just may make changes none of us have imagined. As it seems we do over-value some players where the rest of the world might not. It should be a very interesting off season with a whole lot of head scratching, and disagreeing on TD for sure. This place could blow up.

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

Unless Altuve wins it, and he probably will and should

 

It's kind of amazing how similar Altuve and Dozier's numbers are up to this point (Games/Plate Appearances/2B/3B/BB%).

 

Dozier has 16 more HR's, but Altuve has 51 more singles (which almost mirrors the additional number of strikeouts Dozier has (Dozier has 43 more K's). Their RBI numbers mirror at 91 as well (I'm pretty sure Altuve hits third, but for some unknown reason, Jacque Jones Dozier is still leading off).

 

With the .346/.409 AVG/OBP, I'd be hard-pressed to not give the Silver Slugger to Altuve (especially considering the more balanced season-long stats), but I really want Dozier get win... Give Altuve the MVP. 

[RedBull34]

 

Unless Altuve wins it, and he probably will and should

A faux pas, I completely forgot about Altuve somehow.

[PDX Twin]

It's a problem for the Twins that there seems to be a glut of outstanding second-basemen right now. There are a lot of teams whose best player (or close to best) plays 2B. Altuve, Pedroia, Kipnes, Cano, Kinsler, are all excellent with the bat, and that's just the American League. Has there ever been a time with more outstanding offensive talent at this traditionally defensive position?

 

It makes it hard to trade him when second base is a position of strength for so many trading partners.

[T_J]

 

It's a problem for the Twins that there seems to be a glut of outstanding second-basemen right now. There are a lot of teams whose best player (or close to best) plays 2B. Altuve, Pedroia, Kipnes, Cano, Kinsler, are all excellent with the bat, and that's just the American League. Has there ever been a time with more outstanding offensive talent at this traditionally defensive position?

 

It makes it hard to trade him when second base is a position of strength for so many trading partners.

 

This is the reason why an impact trade won't happen with BD as the centerpiece. He is a fine player, but not the best 2nd basemen. And how much better is he than other teams internal options that would have them make a move for an impact starting pitcher? It's so easy to say " yeah, trade him for an ace" but that it's reasonable. Same thing with E. Santana, why would a team flip 1/2 potential prospects on the cusp for him? It's just not going to happen. There is no way we would get even close to what we would deem fair value for these guys- it's not reasonable thinking. Realistic thinking would be use in a three team trade were we flip some of our high end hitting prospects for some other teams higher end pitching prospects while sprinkling in a little Dozier and a splash of E. Santana. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's a problem for the Twins that there seems to be a glut of outstanding second-basemen right now. There are a lot of teams whose best player (or close to best) plays 2B. Altuve, Pedroia, Kipnes, Cano, Kinsler, are all excellent with the bat, and that's just the American League.

"And that's just the American League" is misleading. The AL is stacked with second base talent. The NL is not.

 

Ranked by WAR, the best NL second baseman would be fourth in the AL. The second best NL second baseman would be seventh in the AL.

[Jham]

 

This is the reason why an impact trade won't happen with BD as the centerpiece. He is a fine player, but not the best 2nd basemen. And how much better is he than other teams internal options that would have them make a move for an impact starting pitcher? It's so easy to say " yeah, trade him for an ace" but that it's reasonable. Same thing with E. Santana, why would a team flip 1/2 potential prospects on the cusp for him? It's just not going to happen. There is no way we would get even close to what we would deem fair value for these guys- it's not reasonable thinking. Realistic thinking would be use in a three team trade were we flip some of our high end hitting prospects for some other teams higher end pitching prospects while sprinkling in a little Dozier and a splash of E. Santana. 

I disagree.  38 HR can play at every single position on the diamond including DH.  Not only could Dozier potentially move to first or third, but certainly many of the others you mentioned could also move first or third.  How long will Cano and Kisler stay up the middle in your eyes?
 

[jimmer]

Kinsler is tied for 1st in DRS for MLB 2Bs and Cano is 3rd.  Might be awhile for them to drop off enough to be considered a detriment at 2B.