Article: Three-Bagger: Run Down, Gonsalves & September Call-Ups

[Nick Nelson]

Stunningly severe struggles from the pitching staff, a surprising Arizona Fall League assignment, and a great September call-up story.

 

We'll touch on all three trending Twins topics in the latest Three-Bagger.* The big story of the last month should be a lineup that continues to flex its muscles. The story should be a mind-boggling hitting clinic from Brian Dozier, and the electric return of Byron Buxton, and Trevor Plouffe reviving his season, and Miguel Sano closing in on 25 homers, and Max Kepler clamping down right field.

 

All of those threads tie to an emerging offense that has crossed the plate 42 times through the first five contests of the current homestand, and is averaging nearly five runs per game since the All-Star break. That should be the story for a last place team that should be on an upward trajectory.

 

Instead, the story is that in spite of all that prolific scoring – and in spite of Dozier putting forth one of the most incredible stretches of self-manufactured offense in recent history – the Twins have still managed to drop 21 of their last 26 games.

 

Minnesota's miserable pitching staff has effectively sapped any enthusiasm these hitters have attempted to generate. Dozier can hit three bombs in a game, and the Twins still lose. Buxton can lift the club with a dramatic grand slam and they still ultimately fall short.

 

The Twins are on track to surpass 750 runs scored for the first time since 2010, and they're going to lose 100 games. That's because they are also on track to allow more than 900 runs, which has never happened in Twins history.

 

This staff, designed with postseason aspirations, has been hit with a few key injuries (Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins most notably) but nothing that should've been totally unforeseen. It's almost incomprehensible that they are on pace give up more runs than any of those porous units from the steroid era in the late '90s.

 

Obviously, they need some help.

 

* The best hope for providing that help, internally, is Stephen Gonsalves. He wrapped up a dazzling season last week, finishing with a 2.06 ERA and 1.02 WHIP between Ft. Myers and Chattanooga.

 

The Twins announced on Monday that Gonsalves will be heading to the Arizona Fall League, joining the six who were already named (Nick Gordon, Mitch Garver, Tanner English, Randy Rosario, Mason Melotakis and John Curtiss).

 

The decision to add Gonsalves is interesting, because it suggests the organization would like him to get a few more innings under his belt before settling down for the offseason. The lefty set a career high by logging 140 frames this year but it wasn't a huge step forward from last year's 134. Adding a few more in the fall league could put his arm in position to approach 200 next summer.

 

* With rosters expanding over for the final month, the Twins tabbed three players from the minors as September call-ups. Two of them will face considerable pressure. Tyler Duffey is trying to make his case for the 2017 rotation as he winds down a season that has been horrendous. Kennys Vargas is trying to prove his bat is worth a roster spot despite the defensive limitations that may force him out.

 

James Beresford, though? He'll just be enjoying the ride.

 

It's been more than a decade since the Twins signed Beresford as a teenager out of Australia. He rose gradually through the system before settling at Triple-A, never a true prospect but always a valued player. The lefty-swinging middle infielder brings a soft bat (he has slugged .330 and hit four total home runs in 1,000 minor-league games) but a steady and reliable glove.

 

Beresford turns 28 in January. He has played 382 games at Rochester over the past three seasons without showing any real signs of improvement. Paul Molitor basically acknowledged that the promotion was largely in recognition of Beresford's lengthy service in the organization. Presumably he won't play much and will merely serve as extra infield depth.

 

Still, it'll be fun to see him don a big-league jersey for the final month.

 

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[mikelink45]

Why not have Gonsalves throw those innings with the major league club?  Or are we afraid the MLB coaches will damage his future?

[Seth Stohs]

 

Why not have Gonsalves throw those innings with the major league club?  Or are we afraid the MLB coaches will damage his future?

 

They've got enough pitchers in the big leagues that they need to make some decisions on.

 

But primarily, Gonsalves doesn't need to be added to the 40 man roster until AFTER the 2017 season, so from a roster management standpoint, it makes absolutely no sense for him to be added to the 40-man roster now.

[Mike Sixel]

 

They've got enough pitchers in the big leagues that they need to make some decisions on.

 

But primarily, Gonsalves doesn't need to be added to the 40 man roster until AFTER the 2017 season, so from a roster management standpoint, it makes absolutely no sense for him to be added to the 40-man roster now.

 

I agree with this, unless there is any chance he makes the team out of spring training, which I doubt right now...

[Vanimal46]

Congrats to Beresford. Hope he makes his impact, even if he plays sparingly. 

[NoCal]

Also nice that Beresford will earn more this month than he probably earned in the last two years.

[Rosterman]

I think as a veteran minor league guy Beresford probably pulled in close to $40-45 grand. If he was on the 40-man, he would've gotten more for the season. There is some reward in minor league salary if you hang around. But, yes, this will be a nice $50 grand payday!

[Jham]

Innings pitched seems like an archaic and arbitrary way of factoring usage.  I mean, assuming most pitchers are on some sort of pitch count these days, a pitcher with fewer innings is probably throwing the same amount of pitches, but with fewer breaks.  

 

I would NOT send Gonsalves to the Fall League, and I can't imagine any good coming from it.  Not every pitcher fully recovers given a full off season.  I'd suggest that a pitcher's arm only has so many bullets.  I'd rather he save them for the big leagues.  

Edited September 6, 2016 by Jham

[bluechipper]

The 14th best team ERA, Oakland, is .59 worse than 3rd best Houston's 4.01 ERA. The Twins are .60 worse than Oakland...

 

I could've probably just said the Twins pitching is hot garbage and made the same point without wasting 2 minutes looking that up.

[Darius]

Why not have Gonsalves throw those innings with the major league club? Or are we afraid the MLB coaches will damage his future?

I think your last sentence is the real

worry. I dont want him to come up, be told he needs to tweak his mechanics (a la Berrios), struggle, and have the sees of doubt planted.

Edited September 6, 2016 by Darius

[Darius]

They've got enough pitchers in the big leagues that they need to make some decisions on

Do they really though?

 

Santana is what he is, and will be in the rotation. Same for Gibson. I dont think anything they do will change that.

 

Berrios needs the innings, but again, likely a rotation staple in the future. Duffy might need the innings, but one could argue some bullpen inning might benefit him. Trevor May would be a candidate for the future, but thats not happening this year.

 

That leaves the rotation spots that are being filled by guys like Santiago, Pat Dean, and Albers. Nobody needs to see another inning from those guys to know that they shouldnt be in a major league rotation next year. No disrespect intended to those fine gentlemen, but its just the truth right now.

 

I'm not advacating bringing Gonsalves up. But for other reasons. Saying that there are just too many pitchers sounds like one of the old company lines. Yes, there are some breathing bodies, but there might be one legitimate rotation piece on the Twins right now (Santana) if we're talking about a true contender. Two if you bank on Berrios' upside.

[jimmer]

 

Do they really though?

 

Yeah, I couldn't agree with that more.  We have a horrific rotation and we have too many pitchers that have contributed to that.  Seems the decisions should involve, I don't know, releasing some of them?  This depth of starters is one reason why May was forced to, and then continued to be in, the bullpen

[dgwills]

I haven't commented on the site for a while, but I think we all saw this coming. There's just no way you can compete with this rotation. Hopefully there's help in 2018. If I was the Twin's that's what I'd be aiming towards. It's not happening in 2017. All decisions should keep this in mind.

[jimmer]

 

I haven't commented on the site for a while, but I think we all saw this coming. There's just no way you can compete with this rotation. Hopefully there's help in 2018. If I was the Twin's that's what I'd be aiming towards. It's not happening in 2017. All decisions should keep this in mind.

I don't know of too many people who saw 100 losses.  Many thought we'd lose a few more than last year (mostly because it was fluky we won as much as we did), but 100 losses?

[dgwills]

 

I don't know of too many people who saw 100 losses.  Many thought we'd lose a few more than last year (mostly because it was fluky we won as much as we did), but 100 losses?

I didn't see 100 losses coming. By compete what I meant was having a team that can make the playoffs.  This year was really the perfect storm. In the beginning of the year no one could hit and now towards the end no one can pitch.

All that should even out next year, but there's not much they can do to be a contending team.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, the only SP worth anything this season has been Erv. I have to think that improving the defense behind the starters would help at least to some extent, but truthfully, short of Dozier and the possibility that Buxton starts in AAA (which is a defensive downgrade), there won't be a lot of position changes this offseason. 

[jimmer]

 

I didn't see 100 losses coming. By compete what I meant was having a team that can make the playoffs.  This year was really the perfect storm. In the beginning of the year no one could hit and now towards the end no one can pitch.

All that should even out next year, but there's not much they can do to be a contending team.

Well, at least the defense has been consistent all year.  Consistently horrible that is :-)

 

In fairness, the pitching has been bad horrendous most all the year with the exception of April.  We do have the worst ERA in the first half and the 2nd half.  More consistency :-)

 

For many of us, it was pretty clear going into ST that we wouldn't be competing for a playoff spot.  The talent gathered by Ryan just wasn't there.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't know of too many people who saw 100 losses.  Many thought we'd lose a few more than last year (mostly because it was fluky we won as much as we did), but 100 losses?

Yeah. I could see this team winning anywhere between 75-85 games depending on how things broke with a few players, especially the young guys.

 

No one reasonable saw this season coming.

 

Waaaaayyyy too many negative contributions up and down the roster.

[jimmer]

 

Yeah. I could see this team winning anywhere between 75-85 games depending on how things broke with a few players, especially the young guys.

 

No one reasonable saw this season coming.

 

Waaaaayyyy too many negative contributions up and down the roster.

I think I said 78 or 79.  I know I didn't have us in the 80s in area.  Pitching and defense were always going to be killing us.

Edited September 7, 2016 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think I said 78 or 79.  I know I didn't have us in the 80s in area.  Pitching and defense were always going to be killing us.

I was a touch more optimistic, hoping Kepler, Buxton, Berrios, & Co would be positive contributors. Only Kepler has met that goal and he's falling off a cliff in real time.

 

I had them at 81-83, I think. Basically, improving enough to make up for the luck of last season, give or take a few games.