Article: Santana Shines Among Sad Starter Group

[Mr. Brooks]

Not next year, the next 5. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that sano is at our close to his peak. If we get Dozier like production from Sano we'll be ecstatic right? Or we got Dozier like production from Dozier. For a little while... right now Dozier is much more useful. Next year probably. The year after probably. 3 through 5 meh.

 

So what if Dozier can only bring back a Mike Fiers, but Sano can bring the next Arrietta. Then who do you deal?

1) It's actually highly unlikely that Sano is anywhere near his peak. The guy is 23 years old.

 

2) If we only get Dozier like production from Sano, most people on this board will be very disappointed, and should be.

Dozier is a nice player, I like him, always have, always have defended him. But, he's not a guy anyone outside of Twins territory will remember in 10 years.

Sano should blossom into a superstar.

 

You are correct that Sano would bring back a bigger return. But since he's likely not even close to his peak yet, and under team control for at least 5 more seasons, it would be stupid to trade him now.

Reconsider it if we are still not close 3 or 4 years from now.

[jimmer]

'Better players peak earlier in their careers. While the general population peaks at age 27, the group of good players peak at either 25 or 26 years old.

 

Hall-of-famers don’t usually peak — instead, they plateau. From ages 24 to 30, their production is generally constant. From then on, it drops at a high rate.'

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-do-star-hitters-age/

Edited September 1, 2016 by jimmer

[jimmer]

I'm sure that when teams are looking to trade for players, they have Dozier grouped in with the likes of Kershaw, Trout, Altuve and Votto on their most desired list :-)

Edited September 1, 2016 by jimmer

[wsnydes]

 

Yeah, but I've been on the consider trading Sano or Buxton side of thinking before, and it's so unpopular that i understand why someone would rather not go there. I think you guys hit the nail square. Trade for immediate pitching, or trade for future pitching. I've said we should consider both options and take the largest return. See where we sit then, and adjust our timeline accordingly. My sneaking suspicion is that sano brings back the most franchise changing return... if nothing we offer brings back a haul, I'm not sure what we can do. Ride out another season and cross fingers on gonsalves i guess.

I know that we've disagreed on the point about Sano and Buxton (or other prospects) in other threads, but for me it was always about the timing of it.  I'm also not convinced that one of those guys would net enough of a haul to make this team competitive next season.  But to the point I'm trying to make, you'd also need to be able to fill the hole you just created.  Trading Buxton this offseason would not only be selling low, but it would also leave this team without a CF again.  So if this is the route that is taken, Sano would have to be the guy dealt.  They have several in-house options and he's at least looked the part of a major league hitter.  That would clear a logjam at DH/1B, and bring players that should be able to help next year.  I still think the best this team can realistically hope for to be a .500 team, but you have to get there before you become a legitimate competitor.  You do have to start somewhere, however.  Trading Dozier and Santana now is that start.

 

I don't see trading Dozier and Santana as an all out forfeit of next seasons competitiveness.  Not doing anything, or very little would be.  I also feel that trading the Sano's or Buxton's would have a much larger public reaction to the negative regarding next year's competitiveness.

Edited September 1, 2016 by wsnydes

[wsnydes]

 

Keeping "long term familiar family faces", even though they are clearly at their peak trade value is how you end up with a guy like Glen Perkins.

Teams like the Twins (i.e. teams not being the Yankees or Red Sox) need to maximize the trade value of its players far more often than they do.  Their inability to do so over and over again has resulted in this very situation.  I'm not sure how many people really get this.  That's how the A's were able to extend their run in the early 2000's and the Ray's a tad later.  

[Jham]

'Better players peak earlier in their careers. While the general population peaks at age 27, the group of good players peak at either 25 or 26 years old.

 

Hall-of-famers don’t usually peak — instead, they plateau. From ages 24 to 30, their production is generally constant. From then on, it drops at a high rate.'

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-do-star-hitters-age/

On top of that. Sano has also always been precocious. He had the body at 19. He was a pro at 16. He has been groomed since what 12? This could be his worst year. He could be peaking. Save his first month in the league, he's looked like a streaky slugger with a good eye, very high ks, and a compact yet loopy swing which generates top spin instead of back spin. The swing won't ever change. He'll hit the roof of stadium he plays in, but fewer seats as result. Dozier has an outside shot at 40 hr from 2nd base. I just don't know if Sano will ever have that in him... Edited September 1, 2016 by Jham

[jimmer]

 

On top of that. Sano has also always been precocious. He had the body at 19. He was a pro at 16. He has been groomed since what 12? This could be his worst year. He could be peaking. Save his first month in the league, he's looked like a streaky slugger with a good eye, very high ks, and a compact yet loopy swing which generates top spin instead of back spin. The swing won't ever change. He'll hit the roof of stadium he plays in, but but fewer seats too. Dozier has a sit at 40 hr from 2nd base. I just don't know if Sano will ever have that in him...

I imagine his peak will be next year or the year after.  Can't discount his body type and how that will affect him down the road.

[troyhobbs]

Remember that if it weren't for the amazing record we had in May, which is in the first half when Sano wasn't even on the team, we wouldn't have been within shot. We were 41-37, and 4.5 games back in the division pre-Sano and 42-42 with Sano, ending up 12 games back in the division. We can't pretend we made some great surge after promoting him.

They were tailspining before Sano was called up and then tanked at the end of the year again but he did provide a brief surge. More so than any other individual in the lineup anyway

[Jham]

Another question is what is his peak, and when does his value peak...

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not next year, the next 5. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that sano is at our close to his peak. If we get Dozier like production from Sano we'll be ecstatic right? Or we got Dozier like production from Dozier. For a little while... right now Dozier is much more useful. Next year probably. The year after probably. 3 through 5 meh.

So what if Dozier can only bring back a Mike Fiers, but Sano can bring the next Arrietta. Then who do you deal?

 

Weren't we talking about Ervin Santana, who is only signed for 2 more years, and is in his 30s?

[troyhobbs]

On top of that. Sano has also always been precocious. He had the body at 19. He was a pro at 16. He has been groomed since what 12? This could be his worst year. He could be peaking. Save his first month in the league, he's looked like a streaky slugger with a good eye, very high ks, and a compact yet loopy swing which generates top spin instead of back spin. The swing won't ever change. He'll hit the roof of stadium he plays in, but fewer seats as result. Dozier has an outside shot at 40 hr from 2nd base. I just don't know if Sano will ever have that in him...

That's awfully presumptuous. How many HRS did Dozier hit when he was 23? Edited September 1, 2016 by troyhobbs

[jimmer]

 

They were tailspining before Sano was called up and then tanked at the end of the year again but he did provide a brief surge. More so than any other individual in the lineup anyway

I thought they just went back to being mediocre in June like they were in April (and really most of the months other than May). Admittedly, my memory isn't what it used to be.

 

Sano did play really well, though.

[troyhobbs]

I thought they just went back to being mediocre in June like they were in April (and really most of the months other than May). Admittedly, my memory isn't what it used to be.

 

Sano did play really well, though.

Ya I'm just going off memory too so could be throwing non factual things out there a little loosely. So long as a couple people buy it...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This team is going to lose 100+ games, and is giving major playing time in August to never will be's like Albers, Dean, O'Rourke, and Schaefer.

I mean, if this team is not still far away, then I don't know that you'd ever say a Twins team was.

Left-handed batters have 16 plate appearances against O'Rourke this season, with 0 hits. That would be something to build on going forward. I don't know if the "loogy" is still a thing or not, or ever was, but I sense that Molitor and Allen don't really believe in the value of that stuff even if it was.

 

Edit that maybe those 16 PA were against Schafer types or there were some screaming line drives. I don't know. Just looked at the surface: 16 PA, 0-12, 2/5 BB/K

Edited September 1, 2016 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[twinssouth]

Just thought I'd throw it out there, Twins have past Braves down here and is now, officially (for one day at least) the worst team in Mlb and if draft held today, will get the no. 1 draft pick. Yes, great news Let's celebrate.

[Doomtints]

 

Keeping Santana seems like a very TR move - let's keep him and hope 4 other starters exceed any past results and reach their absolute ceilings and the offense maintains or improves slightly we can be a .500 team competing for a wild card spot.

I hope the Pohlad's didn't fire TR just to appease fans and just hire someone who will keep the same philosophy. 

We are going to lose 100 games this year and have been dreadful for most of the past 6 years. We need to rebuild a SP rotation for 2018/2019 that can hopefully coincide with our top hitting prospects developing. Since prospects miss all the time, we need to fill that pipeline with 2-3 more SP's in the AA/AAA range.

 

Actually, trading Santana seems like a TR move.  Trade him without doing anything to address the hole it causes.  Sign a washed-up player to replace Santana who is worth about 50 cents and act like it was a successful move when the player performs at a 55 cent level.

 

Meanwhile the other teams will use that $1 player like Santana, who sure might perform at the 90 cent level instead, and beat the Twins with their 55 cent players every day of the week.

 

If the Twins actually could solve a logjam at SP by trading Santana, then sure let him go.  But the Twins will still have Hughes, so they will be keeping the worse option.  Also, there are no young players ready to step in for Santana.

 

It was mentioned by someone that the A's found success by trading older players for younger ones.  Sure, but they were SMART about it.  When the A's were good at this, they didn't create holes by their trades.  They had someone ready to step in.  They traded for others who could fulfill the role.  Who the heck are the Twins going to trade Santana for that would not be a net loss to the team?  The  team's holes are too cavernous for this trade to fix.  

 

Edited September 1, 2016 by Doomtints

[Craig Arko]

 

Just thought I'd throw it out there, Twins have past Braves down here and is now, officially (for one day at least) the worst team in Mlb and if draft held today, will get the no. 1 draft pick. Yes, great news Let's celebrate.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

'Better players peak earlier in their careers. While the general population peaks at age 27, the group of good players peak at either 25 or 26 years old.

 

Hall-of-famers don’t usually peak — instead, they plateau. From ages 24 to 30, their production is generally constant. From then on, it drops at a high rate.'

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-do-star-hitters-age/

This is the view from 35,000 feet, and it is certainly valid. But looking at Dozier, I don't see any reason he shouldn't continue hitting home runs for years. Look at the Blue Jays guys. Donaldson, Batista, and Encarnacion are all older than Dozier and continue to mash year after year (Batista having a down year). If that is the "plateau" Dozier is entering...

 

That said, trading Dozier for the right MLB starter is definitely a good debate. I just don't think you should. Santana is a different story. He is having one of his best seasons but he is the only thing we got until these younger guys start showing something. I don't know.

[jimmer]

 

I knew that was coming, just didn't know who would pounce first :-)

[Jham]

Weren't we talking about Ervin Santana, who is only signed for 2 more years, and is in his 30s?

Yeah Santana is a tough call. Unless we get a really nice return I keep him. We had a framework in place at the deadline. So we sort of know the market. Have to look up the deal. I mean, there's risks with golding or trading guys. Santana is a really close call. Hopefully it would be a win either way. We went young and left Kenny Rogers out and he made like 3 more all star games. We held on to Blackburn and he turned into a pumpkin. We traded Silva and that didn't work out either way. I'm thinking keep him since our pitching is so thin. Make your moves with Dozier, Polanco, Sano, our Buxton. I would also require controllable upside pitching in return, not necessarily a mlb ready pitcher. IE continue getting younger. I was against a tear down rebuild. And asked to keep the core a month ago. Now I think we probably saw the market for esan and doz and it didn't bring back the necessary return. I think we flip Sano or Buxton for legit pitching prospects, look for progress next year, and make a 2018 push. Santana makes more sense to deal after next season or at the next deadline.

[twinssouth]

I knew that was coming, just didn't know who would pounce first :-)

 

 

 

 

 

I just popped the Champagne bottle (it's noon somewhere in the world) and started dancing to Celebration.

[Jham]

 

That's awfully presumptuous. How many HRS did Dozier hit when he was 23?

Which part...  Mostly I was wondering aloud.  I did presume to say Sano's swing was not going to change.  I've mostly never seen anyone retool their swing.  Dozier's actually 1, Bautista another.  I'm not even sure Dozier's swing changed as much as his approach.  I didn't follow Dozier's swing when he was hitting .300 with little power in the minors.  But you'd assume his swing changed. 

I would guess the team has tried to get Sano to level out his swing so that he can catch up to high heat, cut k's, and generate more back spin, but from what I've heard, he's pretty reluctant.  

 

On a complete aside, I wish I knew why lefties can get away with that swing, but righties tend to need more straight to the ball swings...

 

Edited September 1, 2016 by Jham

[gheggs42]

 

Yeah Santana is a tough call. Unless we get a really nice return I keep him. We had a framework in place at the deadline. So we sort of know the market. Have to look up the deal. I mean, there's risks with golding or trading guys. Santana is a really close call. Hopefully it would be a win either way. We went young and left Kenny Rogers out and he made like 3 more all star games. We held on to Blackburn and he turned into a pumpkin. We traded Silva and that didn't work out either way. I'm thinking keep him since our pitching is so thin. Make your moves with Dozier, Polanco, Sano, our Buxton. I would also require controllable upside pitching in return, not necessarily a mlb ready pitcher. IE continue getting younger. I was against a tear down rebuild. And asked to keep the core a month ago. Now I think we probably saw the market for esan and doz and it didn't bring back the necessary return. I think we flip Sano or Buxton for legit pitching prospects, look for progress next year, and make a 2018 push. Santana makes more sense to deal after next season or at the next deadline.

I too think they will trade Sano because they have too many players that play the same positions, that combined with the reports of his work ethic and poor defense, etc. I think we see Plouffe return at 3rd, sigh, and Mauer/Park/Vargas at 1B and DH next year. I do not think they will give up on Buxton, yet. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Which part... Mostly I was wondering aloud. I did presume to say Sano's swing was not going to change. I've mostly never seen anyone retool their swing. Dozier's actually 1, Bautista another. I'm not even sure Dozier's swing changed as much as his approach. I didn't follow Dozier's swing when he was hitting .300 with little power in the minors. But you'd assume his swing changed.

 

I would guess the team has tried to get Sano to level out his swing so that he can catch up to high heat, cut k's, and generate more back spin, but from what I've heard, he's pretty reluctant.

 

On a complete aside, I wish I knew why lefties can get away with that swing, but righties tend to need more straight to the ball swings...

Because barring a platoon, lefties get to face opposite handed pitching twice as often as righties do.

Against opposite handed pitching you can be longer with your swing because you pick up the ball a lot earlier.

[magiklair]

The twins desperately need pitching. If they could trade Santana for some high upside pitching prospects. That is something to look into. They may want to trade Dozier as his value will probably never be higher. He could probably fetch a nice return as well. It all depends on what you can get for Santana and Dozier…