Article: Santana Shines Among Sad Starter Group

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well I'm not convinced we're going to get 2 good years from Gibson, Duffey, May, or Mejia.  I'll take Santana's next 2 seasons over any of theirs.  And if I'm wrong...  is that really such a bad thing?  

If our socks are blowed off by an offer, cool.  If not, this year has proven one thing: getting younger does not necessarily mean getting better; better now, better ever.  

Speaking of...  Important question.  who has the better 2017-2021 Miguel Sano or Brian Dozier?  Who will make more money over those 5 years?  IE if you could only keep 1...

 

Does it matter if they are "better" next year? Really?

 

go young, like in 1982....

[sthpstm]

 

Does it matter if they are "better" next year? Really?

 

go young, like in 1982....

Agreed - I don't think people saying trade Santana (and Dozier) expect the return to be players that will make the Twins better next year but rather better in 2018/2019 and beyond.

Could everything go well next year with the offense and the pitching is not completely awful and the Twins make a worst to competitive turnaround? I guess stranger things have happened (see the Orioles current team), but i don't see that as a viable strategy.  I want a strategy that will build a perennial contender and in my view the offense/defense should be settling in by 2018 and so we need a pitching staff that will coincide with it. Trading Santana and Dozier for SP's to add to Berrios and be around or above Gonsalves/Jay/Mejia is more certain than keeping your currently solid veterans who will not be around or not be as good by that point.

[h2oface]

The fad is trade your best players for hope. Hope has never won a world series. Ever. I expected Santana to regress without his juice. And a partially torn UCL to finally go. But no. I don't trade Santana..... or the "replaceable" 30+ homers of a matured Dozier. For what. More hope and dreams? 30 dingers is sooooo replaceable, eh? Happens all the time in a Twins' uniform? How has that been working for this team? All these prospects that pan out? Jump on the advanced stat trade em if you got em bandwagon if you like. I personally like a couple long term familiar family players like Dozier in the midst of hope that only disappoints. May is another mediocre starter that even if he starts, will be a waste of innings. Trade some of the hope for actual producing players. Enough of these posing prospects.

Edited August 31, 2016 by h2oface

[Mike Sixel]

 

The fad is trade your best players for hope. Hope has never won a world series. Ever. I expected Santana to regress without his juice. And a partially torn UCL to finally go. But no. I don't trade Santana..... or the "replaceable" 30+ homers of a matured Dozier. For what. More hope and dreams? How has that been working for this team? Jump on the advanced stat trade em if you got em bandwagon if you like. I personally like a couple long term familiar family players in the midst of hope that only disappoints. May is another mediocre starter that even if he starts, will be a waste of innings.

 

fad? what does that mean, exactly?

 

your whole thread is, well, I don't understand your point......

[Thrylos]

 

Edit: going back to Viola era. Is Santana much different from Doyle Alexander, who netted John Smoltz?

 

The strike of '94 and the resulting CBA, ended the Viola era...

[Craig Arko]

The fad is trade your best players for hope. Hope has never won a world series. Ever.

No, but he did pay a nice tribute.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMFlJjI_HOI

[Craig Arko]

By the way for my nickel I trade Dozier for a good SP and keep Santana. Then I'd only need to find 3 more and not 5 more.

[jimmer]

 

 

 

The fad is trade your best players for hope. Hope has never won a world series. Ever. I expected Santana to regress without his juice. And a partially torn UCL to finally go. But no. I don't trade Santana..... or the "replaceable" 30+ homers of a matured Dozier. For what. More hope and dreams? 30 dingers is sooooo replaceable, eh? Happens all the time in a Twins' uniform? How has that been working for this team?

 How has having Santana and Dozier been working for the Twins this year?

Edited August 31, 2016 by jimmer

[h2oface]

How has having Santana and Dozier been working for the Twins this year?

Pretty well. They are not part of the problem.

[jimmer]

 

Pretty well. They are not part of the problem.

No they aren't part of the problem, but even with them, the Twins are looking at 100 or more losses, which is the point.  It's why, IMO, we trade them.  We are so far off and those two have value to get younger players who will hopefully help when we're hopefully relevant again.  Dozier and Santana and some others, like Mauer, won't be around when that time happens.

 

Or we can just do what we normally do, which is hold on to our veterans too long until they drop too low to have value

Edited August 31, 2016 by jimmer

[Mr. Brooks]

The fad is trade your best players for hope. Hope has never won a world series. Ever. I expected Santana to regress without his juice. And a partially torn UCL to finally go. But no. I don't trade Santana..... or the "replaceable" 30+ homers of a matured Dozier. For what. More hope and dreams? 30 dingers is sooooo replaceable, eh? Happens all the time in a Twins' uniform? How has that been working for this team? All these prospects that pan out? Jump on the advanced stat trade em if you got em bandwagon if you like. I personally like a couple long term familiar family players like Dozier in the midst of hope that only disappoints. May is another mediocre starter that even if he starts, will be a waste of innings. Trade some of the hope for actual producing players. Enough of these posing prospects.

Keeping "long term familiar family faces", even though they are clearly at their peak trade value is how you end up with a guy like Glen Perkins.

[h2oface]

Keeping "long term familiar family faces", even though they are clearly at their peak trade value is how you end up with a guy like Glen Perkins.

Or Kirby Puckett until he is done. One or two teammates. Not utilizing prospects to trade at the peak of their hope and dreams value is how you get nothing for what are already redundancies like an Arcia ... or perhaps Buxton before it is over. Danny Santana and Vargas had value once. What a fail signing old man Trumbo was. It is always a good mix that become winners.

[troyhobbs]

A weak free agent market could maybe net them something of good value in a trade, but that doesn't seem too likely. Until Santana either drops off badly or takes starts away from somebody who deserves them getting rid of him just puts the team in an even deeper hole.

Ya from tied for last place to outright last place

[troyhobbs]

I agree, deal Sano with sweeteners and we can get back in the hunt. We played the Gonsalves game with Meyer in 2014 and with Berrios in 2015. Trade Gonsalves along with Sano. 

 

We don't near a tear down, nor do we need to push contention endlessly into the future. We were in the hunt all last season, and feature or will feature 4 future All-Stars in Kepler, Polanco, Buxton and Sano. We have money, vets to trade, and the most valuable commodity in all of baseball, which is young starting pitching. The right GM can get this done this off-season.

 

Where do we find that guy?

[jimmer]

 

Where do we find that guy?

I'm told he lived on this planet about 2000 years ago or so.

[Deduno Abides]

The strike of '94 and the resulting CBA, ended the Viola era...

Don't understand, but I'm sure there are lots of recent examples of trading veteran pitchers for good returns. How about this one in 2013? Scott Feldman for Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop. I'm of the opinion that 2016 Ervin is worth more than 2013 Feldman.

[troyhobbs]

The fad is trade your best players for hope. Hope has never won a world series. Ever. I expected Santana to regress without his juice. And a partially torn UCL to finally go. But no. I don't trade Santana..... or the "replaceable" 30+ homers of a matured Dozier. For what. More hope and dreams? 30 dingers is sooooo replaceable, eh? Happens all the time in a Twins' uniform? How has that been working for this team? All these prospects that pan out? Jump on the advanced stat trade em if you got em bandwagon if you like. I personally like a couple long term familiar family players like Dozier in the midst of hope that only disappoints. May is another mediocre starter that even if he starts, will be a waste of innings. Trade some of the hope for actual producing players. Enough of these posing prospects.

 

Hope's and dreams has been the mantra of mgmt the past 5 seasons. One would expect guys like Sano, Kepler, Rosario, etc to replace those HRS and pitching is way more important than a handful of solo HRS. The board is also ignoring how bad the bullpenext is.

[DocBauer]

Read through all the posts, and fully understand both sides of the aisle. Can't say I disagree with either side either. I'm not so much straddling the fence as trying to examine this team as well as the future.

 

Yes this team has been disappointing, often terrible to watch... except for a 2 month stretch... and could lose 100 games. And yes, there have been some frustrating and head scratching moves. But to really examine what is best for the team moving forward, while examing this season in proper retrospect. And to do so, we have to accept two things;

 

1} despite our frustrations and disappointments of 5 of the past 6 years, we have to examine this season on its own merits. We have to do so as Ryan is gone, and while we don't know what front offices or sweeping changes could yet happen within the organization, things are changing. (Hopefully for the better) But also...

 

2} The rebuild and youth movement everyone speaks of HAS begun. Albeit, some of the young talent hasn't performed as expected or hoped, and their are questions about the field staff. But Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Polanco, Vargas, Berrios, Duffey and others have been up and given chances, and will, presumably, get more. And there have been some fine performances in AAA and AA of prospects that seem very close.

 

Again, there are concerns about how the ML field staff and some of the milb field staffs have helped develop and prepare some of these prospects, but that is an entirely different discussion.

 

So, changes are coming and have begun. The team has gotten much younger, will get younger still, presumably, and THIS 90+ loss team IS different than previous 90 loss teams. (Despite some of the same shortcomings) SO what is best going forward for this team?

 

I don't have a problem shopping both Dozier and Santana to see what you can get for them. You'd be foolish not to do so! If Santana could bring back another Mejia or better, you're probably better of making said move. IF. Otherwise, you have a solid veteran ML starter on a decent contract for 2 years to solidify one rotation spot. If Dozier could bring back a legitimate #2, still fairly young and cost controlled SP, or a top, top prospect ready, you have to consider that move.

 

But consider Dozier's power and offensive ability, (and i like the adjustments he's made this season), it's not as easy to replace him as just plugging Polanco in to 2B. Now you need another infielder to your roster for additional depth and competition.

 

Again, I think you shop both, see what you can get, and if it makes enough sense you move either or both of them. But...and I'm not saying the Twins are suddenly an automatic playoff candidate...I believe it may be more prudent, especially if a new staff is in place, to "anchor" your rotation with Santana and a healthy Gibson, while rolling with Berrios, May, Mejia and possibly Duffey. Gonsalves looks like he might be ready at some point in 2017. Picture the lineup with Dozier, Polanco or A healthy Escobar at SS and the other a nice utility player, along with continued development from Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano and others.

 

This is a long winded way of saying I don't have an exact answer. And like everyone else, I'm tired of losing, and tired of waiting until next year. But taking a step back and focusing on this season alone, changes ARE happening on the field and in the front office. (Again, hopefully good changes in the FO). And I guess I'm of the opinion that unless you can pick up a really, really good and immediate rotation piece, I think the Twins are better off keeping both guys, at least initially, and continuing to work with and keep introducing the young talent around them.

[jimmer]

 

 The board is also ignoring how bad the bullpenext is.

and, mostly, ignoring how bad the defense is...when they talk about how good they think the offense is.  As if we shouldn't take into account that the same guys on offense are also out in the field with gloves on :-)

Edited September 1, 2016 by jimmer

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'm told he lived on this planet about 2000 years ago or so.

 

Merlin?

[jimmer]

 

Merlin?

That wasn't exactly the wizard I had in mind, but yeah...he might be able to do it too :-)

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If the Twins keep Dozier and lose for several more seasons, or barely miss the postseason again, it won't be because they didn't trade Dozier. Dozier is a home run hitter and will continue to be a home run hitter for several more seasons.

[jimmer]

 

If the Twins keep Dozier and lose for several more seasons, or barely miss the postseason again, it won't be because they didn't trade Dozier. 

It'll be because this trainwreck of a team built by our recently departed GM hasn't been able to be repaired quickly enough. :-)

Edited September 1, 2016 by jimmer

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It'll be because this trainwreck of a team built by our recently departed GM hasn't been able to be repaired quickly enough. :-)

The team is not that far away, in my opinion.

 

The talent is there, they just need to unlock it.

[Jham]

Does it matter if they are "better" next year? Really?

 

go young, like in 1982....

Not next year, the next 5. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that sano is at our close to his peak. If we get Dozier like production from Sano we'll be ecstatic right? Or we got Dozier like production from Dozier. For a little while... right now Dozier is much more useful. Next year probably. The year after probably. 3 through 5 meh.

 

So what if Dozier can only bring back a Mike Fiers, but Sano can bring the next Arrietta. Then who do you deal?

[h2oface]

Keeping "long term familiar family faces", even though they are clearly at their peak trade value is how you end up with a guy like Glen Perkins.

Kershaw is always at peak trade value. Should he be traded. How about Trout? Altuve? Votto. Etc. I get the idea, just not the results. Twins luck may change with Ryan gone.

[troyhobbs]

Not next year, the next 5. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that sano is at our close to his peak. If we get Dozier like production from Sano we'll be ecstatic right? Or we got Dozier like production from Dozier. For a little while... right now Dozier is much more useful. Next year probably. The year after probably. 3 through 5 meh.

So what if Dozier can only bring back a Mike Fiers, but Sano can bring the next Arrietta. Then who do you deal?

 

Remember Sano carried this team on his back the 2nd half of last season and was a big reason why they almost made the playoffs, meanwhile Dozier was scuffling pretty hard. It could be that Dozier is having his best year and Sano is having his worst.

[jimmer]

 

Remember Sano carried this team on his back the 2nd half of last season and was a big reason why they almost made the playoffs, meanwhile Dozier was scuffling pretty hard. It could be that Dozier is having his best year and Sano is having his worst.

Remember that if it weren't for the amazing record we had in May, which is in the first half when Sano wasn't even on the team, we wouldn't have been within shot.  We were 41-37, and 4.5 games back in the division pre-Sano and 42-42 with Sano, ending up 12 games back in the division. We can't pretend we made some great surge after promoting him.

Edited September 1, 2016 by jimmer

[Mr. Brooks]

Kershaw is always at peak trade value. Should he be traded. How about Trout? Altuve? Votto. Etc. I get the idea, just not the results. Twins luck may change with Ryan gone.

You answered your own question on accident.

Those guys are ALWAYS at peak value. There is no reason to trade them until you have to.

Plus, they are all young enough (except maybe Votto) to be a big part of their teams next WS contention.

Santana and Dozier will likely never have as much trade value as they do now. And Santana for sure, and likely Dozier will never be a big part of the next contending Twins team.

[Mr. Brooks]

The team is not that far away, in my opinion.

 

The talent is there, they just need to unlock it.

This team is going to lose 100+ games, and is giving major playing time in August to never will be's like Albers, Dean, O'Rourke, and Schaefer.

I mean, if this team is not still far away, then I don't know that you'd ever say a Twins team was.