Article: Santana Shines Among Sad Starter Group

[Nick Nelson]

On Tuesday night, the Twins suffered their 12th loss in a row, as a league-worst pitching staff continues to drag them to new depths.

 

Lost in the wreckage is the ongoing strong work from Ervin Santana, who has been a lone bright spot in the starting corps this year.Santana's latest pitching line, from Saturday's start in Toronto, doesn't really capture how well he pitched. The righty ended up being charged with six earned runs, but three crossed the plate after he came out of the game with two outs in the seventh inning.

 

The stats from his previous 11 outings cast no such deception regarding the quality of his performance. During that stretch, Santana posted a 1.79 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while holding opponents to a .202/.241/.285 slash line.

 

Though it didn't end well, he battled impressively against a locked and loaded Blue Jays lineup during Saturday's start. It marked his fourth in a row pitching into the seventh or beyond.

 

Even with the runs charged after he left inflating his numbers a bit, Santana still ranks among the top 15 American League starting pitchers in both ERA (14th, 3.54) and WHIP (12th, 1.20). By those basic result-based measures, he has been a No. 1 starter this season. To say he's been the standout in a miserable rotation doesn't really do his excellent campaign justice.

 

It started out inauspiciously enough, but Santana's contract has thus far proven to be a rare free agent hit for the Twins. In 41 starts with the club, he has outperformed his career numbers almost across the board, gobbling up innings and providing the veteran stability that Terry Ryan sought when he inked Santana to a franchise record FA deal two winters ago.

 

The 33-year-old hurler figures to be an interesting factor in the organization's offseason planning. On the one hand, his trade value is undoubtedly as high as it will ever be and the Twins – descending toward one of the worst finishes in team history – may be facing a complete overhaul of the pitching staff. On the other hand, swapping him for prospects would signal pretty clearly that they don't expect to be competitive in 2017.

 

Are they really willing to do that with an already tenuous hold on fan interest, which according to some was the driving force behind Ryan's dismissal?

 

In my opinion, the Twins need to make a reasonable effort at repairing their broken pitching unit on the fly in efforts to bounce back strong next year. The only way they can really do that while trading Santana is if the return includes young impact arms that are big-league ready or close.

 

But is that even realistic? What team is needy enough for pitching that they'd deal for Santana, but at the same time has good controllable young starters they're willing to give up? Perhaps a contender that is eyeing an all-in push for 2017, but it seems unlikely.

 

Even if you don't expect Santana to keep up at this rate forever, it's still hard to envision a deal that helps the Twins more than it hurts them in the short-term. Unless they're willing to blow the whole thing up and surrender the next couple years, there probably isn't going to be an offer out there that makes sense. At least, that's my take.

 

What would your approach be with Santana this offseason? Build around him, or ship him out and rebuild from the ground up?

 

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[jimmer]

Ah, the rotation built so well, Trevor May couldn't crack into the rotation this year even after his performance last year :-)

[USAFChief]

There really isn't any point in trading Santana unless you're giving up completely on the next season or two.

 

And I hope they don't do that.

[Tom Froemming]

Santana's age worries me. We've seen some really great pitchers completely break down without much warning. It would be crushing to see another missed opportunity like Josh Willingham in 2012.

 

But can you imagine this team without Ervin? Ick. I guess I'd keep him to start next year, but if things go south again you trade him and Dozier at the deadline and let the new GM start to really put his stamp on the organization.

[twinsnorth49]

The Twins lack the organisational pitching depth to be able to move Erv. It's only worth moving him if ready or close to ready arms are the return and like you say, that's not happening. 

 

Keeping him to anchor what will likely once again be a shaky rotation is likely their best route at this point.

[troyhobbs]

Santana's ERA is 3.54 and he probably won't win 10 games this year. So the Twins need like 4 more Santanas, or at least 2 studs better than Santana, and/or a loaded bullpen to actually contend. Flirting with .500 is not contending. If Santana isn't demanding a trade at seasons end he's only in it for the money (and that's cool).

[big dog]

I think players perform better when they at least have some chance to win.  We've got to have a pitcher they can count on.  I don't see anyone else stepping up to that position.

[Blackjack]

The Twins aren't going to contend in 2017, trade Santana while his value is high.  Trade him for a catcher or other position player - that can be flipped for pitching. Trade Dozier for pitching and trade him while his value is high. Commit to a rebuild, play the young guys next season, and hope they develop by 2018.

[Shane Wahl]

I trust literally no one else, so even trade-happy Shane says to keep him for the remainder of his contract unless things get crazy next year with 5 other starters . . .

[TheBoofIsLoose]

A weak free agent market could maybe net them something of good value in a trade, but that doesn't seem too likely. Until Santana either drops off badly or takes starts away from somebody who deserves them getting rid of him just puts the team in an even deeper hole.

[Doomtints]

 

The Twins aren't going to contend in 2017, trade Santana while his value is high.  Trade him for a catcher or other position player - that can be flipped for pitching. Trade Dozier for pitching and trade him while his value is high. Commit to a rebuild, play the young guys next season, and hope they develop by 2018.

 

Repeat what was already done and did not work? 

 

Trading Santana would just mean having to trade for some other pitcher to replace him later on.  There is no one available who can step into his shoes.

 

I also don't know who would trade a pitcher for a catcher or vice-versa.  

[Mike Sixel]

Well, given the inability of Berrios, Buxton, Duffey and other young players, and given the dearth of FA talent available....I see a zero percent chance this team is in the playoffs next year.

 

I'd trade him. For sure. Bad teams need to trade their old, good, players for younger players. It's the only way to speed up the rebuild. The key is not trading for May, Meyer, but for Arrieta.....

[jimmer]

 

Well, given the inability of Berrios, Buxton, Duffey and other young players, and given the dearth of FA talent available....I see a zero percent chance this team is in the playoffs next year.

 

I'd trade him. For sure. Bad teams need to trade their old, good, players for younger players. It's the only way to speed up the rebuild. The key is not trading for May, Meyer, but for Arrieta.....

Exactly.  Doing a rebuild often hurts.  And it's not like having Dozier and Santana has stopped us from the very real possibility of having 100+ loses.

 

Some seem so committed to trading off vets for prospects, except the good vets that might actually net us prospects worthwhile.

 

The fact that we are a ways off and guys like Dozier and Santana are really good is exactly why you trade them.  Need to trade for more youngsters that will hopefully be good whenever the time comes when we are actually relevant again.

Edited August 31, 2016 by jimmer

[nicksaviking]

I'm going to reserve my right to vote until I get a peek at the resumes of the new President of Baseball Operations and GM and see how frank and honest they are about where they really think this club is actually at in terms of contention.

[Mike Sixel]

A trade is like physical therapy.....it hurts like a #$^@$#^, but it makes the recovery so much more effective and swift.

Edited August 31, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[howieramone2]

 

Well, given the inability of Berrios, Buxton, Duffey and other young players, and given the dearth of FA talent available....I see a zero percent chance this team is in the playoffs next year.

 

I'd trade him. For sure. Bad teams need to trade their old, good, players for younger players. It's the only way to speed up the rebuild. The key is not trading for May, Meyer, but for Arrieta.....

All kinds of ways to speed the rebuild. I would deal board favorites instead of board scapegoats. Sano, Gonsalves, and a IFA starting pitcher for 2 established pitchers in a 3 team deal will get us back in the hunt. Also, I believe as King Theo does, that there is no such thing as a young free agent. That said, I'm guessing our scouts with the help of Jack Goin and his staff of 8, are looking at a fair number of free agent starters. They don't have to be sexy choices, to provide value.

[HitInAPinch]

I would keep Santana.  If you're all in on a rebuild ( shhhh, the rebuild has already started )  then you need a veteran presence to help guide the younger players.  Ervin is already filling that role for the pitchers.  I think Dozier is filling that role for position players.

 

Aren't there 2 other veteran pitchers coming back next year?  Hughes and somebody I can't think of now.  If there are 3 veterans on the pitching staff, I'm OK with that.  Room for Berrios and Duffy (or someone else).  The offense is doing OK.  More walks, better OPS, OBP and fewer K's would make the offense pretty special. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would keep Santana.  If you're all in on a rebuild ( shhhh, the rebuild has already started )  then you need a veteran presence to help guide the younger players.  Ervin is already filling that role for the pitchers.  I think Dozier is filling that role for position players.

 

Aren't there 2 other veteran pitchers coming back next year?  Hughes and somebody I can't think of now.  If there are 3 veterans on the pitching staff, I'm OK with that.  Room for Berrios and Duffy (or someone else).  The offense is doing OK.  More walks, better OPS, OBP and fewer K's would make the offense pretty special. 

 

Is there any evidence this is true at all?

 

Hughes isn't coming back next year, you can't count on any innings from him at all. If you get some, it is luck/gravy.

 

They are on a 100 loss pace, the FO needs to be realistic, this team is not a playoff team next year.

[ashbury]

Santana was signed to bridge us to the time when our young pitchers would be ready to step up. It is revolting to discover that Santana's services are still needed for 2017.

 

I do not subscribe to the idea of simply trading off all established talent when doing a rebuild. Dozier is trade bait because we now seem to have a surplus at his position; that's not the case with ESan. Moreover, a 100-loss season isn't license to blow up the team - a 110-loss follow-on season will lead to even worse business fundamentals that will dog us for years.

 

On the other hand... with care, ESan could be traded, if that trade were to be followed up by something else that redeploys those freed-up dollars. ESan to a contender who is willing to give up near-ready pitching talent that won't help them soon enough for their window of opportunity - and then we trade say a couple of corner outfield prospects, of a lower tier than Kepler, for somebody's 30-something starting pitcher to give them salary relief - this would have to be thought through but maybe would be a win-win for three teams. Difficult to pull off; a short bit of web browsing didn't turn up a candidate pitcher to target.

 

I don't think you can simply redeploy ESan's money on the free agent market, which would be the other route to go after a trade, and get a starter as good as we have now, especially not without taking on additional years, a risk we have already weathered for the most part with ESan. It would be like extending ESan himself by another 2 years, and we have seen how well that has worked out with Hughes.

[TheLeviathan]

Trade him.  It's not illegal to get a guy that is ready to slot in his place.  

 

Given our pitching options in the short term, we've already given up on next year.  It's going to take that long just to sort stuff out.

 

Why make Ervin go down with the ship when you can trade him for a couple life boats?

Edited August 31, 2016 by TheLeviathan

[sthpstm]

I completely disagree with the idea that no one will give up good, upper level minors, nearly ready for the MLB, players for Santana.  We got Adalberto Mejia for the Eduardo Nunez, who has played well for about 1 year. Surely we can do better for Santana.

Sell high on an aging player! While I appreciate optimism, the idea that the Twins should be built to compete in 2017 is just unrealistic.  Trade Santana for pieces that you believe will help in 2018/2019, and beyond.

Yes, you lose a major piece of your current team, but if you're current team is terrible you suck it up and deal him to ensure you have more potential pieces for years that you are building towards.

 

[laloesch]

What's the point of keeping him around to mentor young guys when we have no quality major league prospects to start with?  Pointless.  Plus he's 34 in December.  He is quickly approaching mid 30's and the latter stages of a typical career.  Trade him now at maximum value for a young starter or two. 

 

Bottom line the Twins DESPERATELY NEED major league ready quality starting pitching prospects and this should be a no-brainer decision in my opinion.  This team is so bad and so devoid of pitching talent it isn't contending in 2017 or likely 2018. 

 

Aside from Mejia, Berrios and May (yes that irks the May opponents) what else is there to be optimistic for in the near term?  Jay or Gonsalves?  Stewart is probably at least two years away.  What else is there?   

 

Edited August 31, 2016 by laloesch

[HitInAPinch]

 

Is there any evidence this is true at all?

 

Hughes isn't coming back next year, you can't count on any innings from him at all. If you get some, it is luck/gravy.

 

They are on a 100 loss pace, the FO needs to be realistic, this team is not a playoff team next year.

According to this, Hughes will be ready by Spring Training:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/06/phil-hughes-shoulder-surgery-twins.html

I haven't seen a more recent update.

He also had a compression fracture on his left leg prior to that. 

[Rosterman]

You have to see what offers come to the table. He is still a tradeable asset thru next July.

 

You can always buy starting pitching. But that has a downside. You must compete against other teams and you may overpay or over extend. In doing so, you have to look at the entire contract as a 1-2 year contract. If the pitcher isn't working, you move on. OPtherwise, you are stuck, as the Twins will be in 2017 with Hughes and Santana heading the rotation.

 

When dealing with your own product, you have to look at a guy, say, Kyle Gibson...and entertain offers when he may have more value but less outlook in your own plans. Like Delmon Young and Josh Willingham before, but unlike Ben Revere, Carlos Gomez and Denard Span, the Twins often don't move a player when they can get top dollar and replacement value within the organization.

 

I also feel you do have to push young starters in the system. you get them up here to take their lumps sooner rather than later. There is probably not much of a difference. You can always send a player down to work things out. Are we being better served having Berrios up and getting clobbered this year? He can still go down to Rochester, heck he can still stay at Rochester most of next season and mature even more. But the initial plans probably saw him not making the Twins, not making the 40-man until this November. Would the team as a whole be better served if we were also looking at Stewart and Gonsalves now in August and September (than Albers and Dean). You can always patch in thise fringe guys. But you need to see what you have, how the adapt to the major league spotlight, and see if they will really THEN work at getting their pitching acts together.

 

When you are a losing team, having youngsters gain experience and failing is not as bad as trying to work inexperience into a contending team.You have to see what you have now and in the near future to make those free agent or trading decisions that will improve you going forward rather than treading water.

 

And if you have to write off contracts to go after more contracts, do so. You don't make money if you don't put fans in the seats. And you need to be paying players that will/are producing to do that, not just guys working out their contracts. If you do too much of contract eating, than it is an issue in team management, not players,

 

[Nick Nelson]

 

Bottom line the Twins DESPERATELY NEED major league ready quality starting pitching prospects and this should be a no-brainer decision in my opinion. 

We can all agree with that, but I've yet to be convinced that anyone is dealing those for an expensive 34-YO starter, even if he's coming off a great year. Trading Dozier to a team whose run scoring/prevention balance tips in the opposite direction is the way to get this done, IMO. 

 

 

Given our pitching options in the short term, we've already given up on next year.  It's going to take that long just to sort stuff out.

This is essentially the same staff that finished in the middle of the pack last year. Gibson was a solid starter in 2015. Berrios was a top 5 pitching prospect in the game entering this season. Santana has been great. Mejia, Santiago, Duffey and others all offer reasonable potential to be decent.

 

Saying that that "we've already given up on next year" because of the way things have played out this season seems very defeatist to me. And, I'll ask again, what happens if you blow up the pitching staff and a few guys rebound while the offense kicks ass? Missed opportunity. 

[jimmer]

For what a team gets out of Santana, he is under-paid.  There's value in getting a pitcher of that quality for two years at 28M (two years at 13.5 plus 1M buyout).  In the last 6 seasons, he's missed out on being worth at least 18M once, and that was last year when he was suspended.

Edited August 31, 2016 by jimmer

[laloesch]

 

We can all agree with that, but I've yet to be convinced that anyone is dealing those for an expensive 34-YO starter, even if he's coming off a great year. Trading Dozier to a team whose run scoring/prevention balance tips in the opposite direction is the way to get this done, IMO. 

 

 

This is essentially the same staff that finished in the middle of the pack last year. Gibson was a solid starter in 2015. Berrios was a top 5 pitching prospect in the game entering this season. Santana has been great. Mejia, Santiago, Duffey and others all offer reasonable potential to be decent.

 

Saying that that "we've already given up on next year" because of the way things have played out this season seems very defeatist to me. And, I'll ask again, what happens if you blow up the pitching staff and a few guys rebound while the offense kicks ass? Missed opportunity. 

 

I agree if Dozier (who is near maximum value and replaceable, see Polanco) is the primary piece in a trade for a quality starter(s) by all means go right ahead.    I'd applaud the move. 

 

I disagree though that Santana has no value due to his age and contract.  He's really not that expensive given in comparison to starters of similar talent around the league and he's pitched exceptionally well the last year or so with a solid track record of history.  Sure he's 34 in December, but he's still very useful to a competing team looking for a quality rotation starter for the next two seasons.  Deal him.

 

On the second part of your post.  What do you mean blow up the pitching staff?  Getting rid of mediocre underperformers (Milone, Nolasco, Santiago) and chronic slow starters (Gibson) is hardly "giving up"  on a missed opportunity in my humble opinion.  The process has already begun.  It's because they FINALLY chose to get rid of Milone, Nolasco that there is an opening for Berrios.

 

[jimmer]

 

I agree if Dozier (who is near maximum value and replaceable, see Polanco) is the primary piece in a trade for a quality starter(s) by all means go right ahead.    I'd applaud the move. 

 

I disagree though that Santana has no value due to his age and contract.  He's really not that expensive given in comparison to starters of similar talent around the league and he's pitched exceptionally well the last year or so with a solid track record of history.  Sure he's 34 in December, but he's still very useful to a competing team looking for a quality rotation starter for the next two seasons.  Deal him.

 

On the second part of your post.  What do you mean blow up the pitching staff?  Getting rid of mediocre underperformers (Milone, Nolasco, Santiago) and chronic slow starters (Gibson) is hardly "giving up"  on a missed opportunity in my humble opinion.  The process has already begun.  It's because they FINALLY chose to get rid of Milone, Nolasco that there is an opening for Berrios.

Yes, A  thousand times yes!

[TheLeviathan]

 

This is essentially the same staff that finished in the middle of the pack last year. Gibson was a solid starter in 2015. Berrios was a top 5 pitching prospect in the game entering this season. Santana has been great. Mejia, Santiago, Duffey and others all offer reasonable potential to be decent.

 

Saying that that "we've already given up on next year" because of the way things have played out this season seems very defeatist to me. And, I'll ask again, what happens if you blow up the pitching staff and a few guys rebound while the offense kicks ass? Missed opportunity. 

 

I don't deny it is defeatist.  Part of my pessimism about this year was the fact that people are underselling the lumps young players sometimes have to take to show their best in the big leagues.  Too many of you were predicting MVP campaigns and all that jazz for guys that still clearly had work to do.  I think this year we saw a lot of the offensive players take their lumps, but we are nowhere close to seeing the pitching staff do the same.  Meaning, we aren't that much further along for letting our guys adjust.  

 

We'll have the husk of Phil Hughes, the decidedly bleh Gibson, and a bunch of guys still trying to prove they are starters.  I don't think, even optimistically, that we can field a good enough staff to contend next year.

 

But what I would like to do is invest a lot of innings in Mejia, May, Berrios, and whomever we get for Santana and Dozier.  Not to mention the young bullpen arms.

 

Then, ideally, 2018 is a time we can start to actually hope.  But retaining Santana does nothing to improve us, while dealing him may gave us more bullets in the chamber to improve over the long haul.

 

I get that people want to say things like "don't give up on next year!", but sometimes that's just being a realist.  Charlie Brown shouldn't continue to live his life believing he's going to some day kick field goals in the NFL.  At some point he should just accept who he is and quit living the lie.  Retaining Santana is living a lie about next year.   Same with Dozier.  I don't give them away, but I actively seek ways to move them for value.  Anything else is just too detached from reality for my liking.

[laloesch]

 

I don't deny it is defeatist.  Part of my pessimism about this year was the fact that people are underselling the lumps young players sometimes have to take to show their best in the big leagues.  Too many of you were predicting MVP campaigns and all that jazz for guys that still clearly had work to do.  I think this year we saw a lot of the offensive players take their lumps, but we are nowhere close to seeing the pitching staff do the same.  Meaning, we aren't that much further along for letting our guys adjust.  

 

We'll have the husk of Phil Hughes, the decidedly bleh Gibson, and a bunch of guys still trying to prove they are starters.  I don't think, even optimistically, that we can field a good enough staff to contend next year.

 

But what I would like to do is invest a lot of innings in Mejia, May, Berrios, and whomever we get for Santana and Dozier.  Not to mention the young bullpen arms.

 

Then, ideally, 2018 is a time we can start to actually hope.  But retaining Santana does nothing to improve us, while dealing him may gave us more bullets in the chamber to improve over the long haul.

 

I get that people want to say things like "don't give up on next year!", but sometimes that's just being a realist.  Charlie Brown shouldn't continue to live his life believing he's going to some day kick field goals in the NFL.  At some point he should just accept who he is and quit living the lie.  Retaining Santana is living a lie about next year.   Same with Dozier.  I don't give them away, but I actively seek ways to move them for value.  Anything else is just too detached from reality for my liking.

 

Amen to this post.  Especially the last paragraph.