Heyman: Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants Interested In Morneau

[John Bonnes]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/19687715/blue-jays-dodgers--giants-among-teams-thought-interested-in-morneau

 

The whole (albeit small) story is on Morneau, but I found this interesting.

 

The Twins seem to have more appetite to trade Morneau than Josh Willingham or Denard Span. Morneau has about $19 million left on his contract through next year.

I bet they do. I love Morneau, but Ryan will be forgiven for the Liriano debacle if he makes lemonade out of that contract. I hope he's open to paying some of that contract in return for legitimate prospects.

[gunnarthor]

I don't think a team would give up anything of value for Morny at this time. Wait til next years deadline.

[James]

The dodgers are looking for an upgrade at 1st. And Morneau would definitely fit that category for them. I've read that TR originally had been asking for a team to take on the entire contract and get a major leaguer in return. I hope that was just a starting point for negotiations...

[nicksaviking]

I hope they don't move him just to get rid of the contract. He would be worth more next year when there isn't a second year attached to him. Who knows, if he takes another step toward his pre-concussion self he could be a hot target.

 

No one really believes that if the Twins saved money on his contract next year they will actually put that back toward the payroll do they?

[Seth Stohs]

I can't imagine that the haul for Morneau would be much, even if they ate more than half of the remaining contract, but I still think that if they can, they should... It's great to know that there are at least a couple of teams interested.

[Rosterman]

Maybe we could get what the Phillies got for Thome...at least!

[DPJ]

Screw what the return would be as far as prospects, the savings from not having to pay all of his contracts could apply to some much needed arms in the offseason.

[nicksaviking]

Screw what the return would be as far as prospects, the savings from not having to pay all of his contracts could apply to some much needed arms in the offseason.

I don't buy it. If Morneau's $14 came off the books they'd invest $6-7M tops back into the payroll. Last year losing the salaries of Cuddyer, Natan, Kubel, Capps, Young, Thome and Slowey saved them about $43M, while they reinvested about $20 back into the payroll with Willingham, Doumit, Marquis, Carroll, Zumaya and re-signing Capps. The money they save from Morneau maybe will get them a Joe Saunders, I'd pass and hope for more improvement from Morneau next year.

[Winston Smith]

It really is funny to think they'd take any savings on salaries traded and use it next winter on free agents. Has there ever been a time when the Twins did something like that? More likely they'd just lower next years payroll another 10m or more and come in around 80m, which with Morneau gone would leave some money to spend or go in Jim's pocket.

I really think the $110m or so we had last year will be the high water mark for a long long time to come or at least until they build a new stadium.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I don't buy it. If Morneau's $14 came off the books they'd invest $6-7M tops back into the payroll. Last year losing the salaries of Cuddyer, Natan, Kubel, Capps, Young, Thome and Slowey saved them about $43M, while they reinvested about $20 back into the payroll with Willingham, Doumit, Marquis, Carroll, Zumaya and re-signing Capps. The money they save from Morneau maybe will get them a Joe Saunders, I'd pass and hope for more improvement from Morneau next year.

I don't know if the analogy holds. Last year was an anomaly payroll-wise - they had a higher target ($110M) and even went beyond that in the (as it turns out) false belief they would contend (which in itself should show that the Pohlad's will spend money when they think it might make sense). When it became clear we were in a genuine, grade-A rebuilding project, it was decided to lower payroll from the target, to about $95M-$100M, so the salary drawdown this year was intentional based on an assessment of their chances of competing. My guess is this is about as low as they'll go - they'll probably aim to keep total salary at a similar level next year, and will be willing to increase it a couple of years down the road when the rebuilding process begins to yield a team with a true chance to compete at the highest level.

[DPJ]

I don't buy it. If Morneau's $14 came off the books they'd invest $6-7M tops back into the payroll. Last year losing the salaries of Cuddyer, Natan, Kubel, Capps, Young, Thome and Slowey saved them about $43M, while they reinvested about $20 back into the payroll with Willingham, Doumit, Marquis, Carroll, Zumaya and re-signing Capps. The money they save from Morneau maybe will get them a Joe Saunders, I'd pass and hope for more improvement from Morneau next year.

So keep Morneau to spite the Twins front office and owners?

[bird]

I understand why some of you still extrapolate spending behavior from the pre Target Field (lower revenue) era. You choose to see them as cheapskates, damn the facts. You believe they "cut payroll" for 2012, and that's all the "proof" you need. First of all, they didn't shred the long-term spending strategy. They simply spent $15M less than budgeted for 2012 on payroll, just as they had spent $15M MORE than planned in 2011. Big deal. Secondly, if they were being the misers some of you claim, why did they spend 97% of the draft allocation? Why were they one of the biggest spenders for International signings?

 

So, when they sign one or more expensive FA starters this winter, outbidding and overpaying in the process, will you choose to see things differently?

[JB_Iowa]

So, when they sign one or more expensive FA starters this winter, outbidding and overpaying in the process, will you choose to see things differently?

I'll believe that when I see it.

 

Given that TF revenues are apparently down about 11% this year, the team will be lucky to maintain this year's payroll.

 

It's hard for me to see them "outbidding and overpaying" for a FA starter. (Although I will admit that they have to do something to put b*tts in the seats -- and beers, etc. in the hands -- next year).

[diehardtwinsfan]

Like others, I don't see how they will get much value for Justin this year... Next, not so much as even if he replicates his season to date, he's worth quite a bit more without 1 year attached to that contract. Someone is going to have to severely overpay to get Justin this season, and I have a tough time believing teams will do it.

[JB_Iowa]

Oh, and I'm not holding my breath on Morneau being traded ... but it is tempting. Depends on your viewpoint on his staying healthy from here on out.

[Mike Sixel]

Yes, when the Twins sign a legit free agent for multiple years and big money, not to replace a departing player, but to add talent, I will change my tune, absolutely. Until then, consider me Missouri....

 

This is not an indictment on them, I am merely answering your question about me.

[John Bonnes]

I don't buy it. If Morneau's $14 came off the books they'd invest $6-7M tops back into the payroll. Last year losing the salaries of Cuddyer, Natan, Kubel, Capps, Young, Thome and Slowey saved them about $43M, while they reinvested about $20 back into the payroll with Willingham, Doumit, Marquis, Carroll, Zumaya and re-signing Capps. The money they save from Morneau maybe will get them a Joe Saunders, I'd pass and hope for more improvement from Morneau next year.

I can't claim that the Twins won't get a bunch of 3rd-tier free agents instead of some premier guys. I expect they will. But the argument that only "some" of the $14M will be spent on free agents doesn't hold water. Here's how it works:

 

1) Right now, the Twins payroll is about $100M.

2) The remaining guys on the Twins payroll (including Morneau) cost about $76M next year.

3) So pick a number for payroll next year. Say you think payroll will go down $15M again. That would make it $85M.

4) If you don't trade Morneau, the team has $9M to spend on free agents. If they do, they have $23M to spend on free agents.

 

So long as you think the Twins payroll doesn't dip beneath what they already have committed - $76M or a $24M decrease - all of the $14M will be spent. Now, what they spend it on is a different story. But any money cleared will be available for free agents.

 

The problem with the say you look at it is some of that money they "saved" by not re-signing people has already been committed to other players. But that's all included in the $76M number.

[DaveW]

How did you come up with 76 Million? I thought I saw something on mlbtraderumors and other places where they said it was 65 million heading into next season.

 

I doubt the payroll gets slashed to 85 million as well, I'd guess 90-95 million would be where it ends up.

[JB_Iowa]

According to Cot's Baseball contracts (unless I missed something), the Twins have committed $64 million in 2013 to the following players: Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, Carroll, Span, Blackburn and Perkins. PLUS another $3 million to Nishoka. So that takes you to $64 or $67 million depending on how you view Nishioka.

 

But it ignores all the compensation to young players. My guess is that the $76 million is pretty close.

[John Bonnes]

How did you come up with 76 Million? I thought I saw something on mlbtraderumors and other places where they said it was 65 million heading into next season.

 

I doubt the payroll gets slashed to 85 million as well, I'd guess 90-95 million would be where it ends up.

Here you go:

 

The Twins Payroll Crunch

[chuchadoro]

 

So, when they sign one or more expensive FA starters this winter, outbidding and overpaying in the process, will you choose to see things differently?

 

You have more faith in the Twins than I do. I'm predicting more dumpster diving like Jeremy Guthrie or the Athlete Formerly Known as Fausto Carmona.

[JB_Iowa]

Per Ken Rosenthal on Twitter:

 

36s Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal

#Dodgers no longer a fit for Morneau. They sent their only suitable young starter, Nate Eovaldi, to #Marlins in Hanley Ramirez trade.

[nicksaviking]

I can't claim that the Twins won't get a bunch of 3rd-tier free agents instead of some premier guys. I expect they will. But the argument that only "some" of the $14M will be spent on free agents doesn't hold water. Here's how it works:

 

1) Right now, the Twins payroll is about $100M.

2) The remaining guys on the Twins payroll (including Morneau) cost about $76M next year.

3) So pick a number for payroll next year. Say you think payroll will go down $15M again. That would make it $85M.

4) If you don't trade Morneau, the team has $9M to spend on free agents. If they do, they have $23M to spend on free agents.

 

So long as you think the Twins payroll doesn't dip beneath what they already have committed - $76M or a $24M decrease - all of the $14M will be spent. Now, what they spend it on is a different story. But any money cleared will be available for free agents.

 

The problem with the say you look at it is some of that money they "saved" by not re-signing people has already been committed to other players. But that's all included in the $76M number.

But that's only because you assume the Twins already have a preset payroll in mind for next year. I do not believe that at all. Every indication, from the losing product on the field to the decreased revenue at the gate says the Twins will be decreasing payroll. They can't get Joe Mauer and the guys under contract next year to take a paycut, so the only way they'll be able to trim payroll is by not spending the money they saved on the players they lose.

[jokin]

 

1) Right now, the Twins payroll is about $100M.

 

3) So pick a number for payroll next year. Say you think payroll will go down $15M again. That would make it $85M.

 

 

According to ESPN, the payroll for the current Twins roster is now down to ~$82M (with ESPN quoting Morneau's salary at $15M), add in Nishioka's $3M and that gets you to $85M ALREADY. I'm thinking the Twins are getting real comfortable with that number for next season. That would leave about $30M in money for FAs coming from Morneau's contract, non-tendering Pavano and Capps, and the jettisoning of Nishi back to Japan.

[nicksaviking]

So, when they sign one or more expensive FA starters this winter, outbidding and overpaying in the process, will you choose to see things differently?

I'd gladly retract every bad thing I've said if that were to happen. Since Ryan took over the Twins however, the Twins have only given 1 multi-year deal to a starting pitcher who wasn't with the Twins the year before. That was a two-year deal to 36-year-old Bob Tewksbury in 1997. Because of that, I'm not holding my breath. Ace pitchers get more than one-year deals.

[Mike Sixel]

Not sure I get the nishioka part, unless he voluntarily voids his deal, they will be paying him next year, won't they? Maybe I misunderstand how that works.

[rickyhawaii]

idk why the Giants would want Morneau when they have Brandon Belt, but apparently Bochy doesn't like Belt.. I don't know how much the Blue Jays would want Morneau, but he would be an upgrade over Adam Lind.

[jokin]

Not sure I get the nishioka part, unless he voluntarily voids his deal, they will be paying him next year, won't they? Maybe I misunderstand how that works.

Business Rule #1: Everything is Negotiable

[jorgenswest]

By trading Morneau, the Twins will be buying prospects in the form of paying salary.

 

The Astros sent up to 17.7 million to the Pirates in the Rodriguez deal. It bought them #8, 13 and 16 prospects in the Pirate organization (BBA prospect handbook). Essentially, one B prospect and two Cs. The B prospect is not a pitcher.

 

The Yankees are paying 18.1 million of Burnett's contract for a return of two guys that are not marginal prospects.

 

It is not reasonable to expect the Twins will get much in return for Morneau. I don't think they can expect a solid B pitching prospect even if they pick up 2/3 of the remaining deal. Where is the precedent for trading a big contract at best average performing player with health concerns and getting a good return?

 

Can we be reasonable about Morneau's value this time?

 

Many on this board are great at analyzing the game. How did we miss on analyzing Liriano's value? More geek. Less freak.

[Oxtung]

How did we miss on analyzing Liriano's value? More geek. Less freak.

Several of us didn't and tried in vain to inject some rationality into the discussion but it is a common human trait that allows emotional attachment to override logical reasoning.