Article: Swings And Misses: Twins Preseason Hitter Projections

[Seth Stohs]

Sometimes it's OK to admit when you're wrong... But hey, I stood in there, took my shot, and like so many Twins at-bats this year, most of my predictions ended up as swings and misses.

 

We are about to enter the month of September. The Twins 2016 season story was written way back in April, and they’ve had the final nails pounded in the last two weeks. An 11-game losing streak is never a positive for a team. So, I thought it would be fun to take a look back at my player predictions from mid-March. I think the theme of today’s story is, “It’s good to admit your mistakes.” There are a few where you’ll look at my prediction and wonder what I was thinking. I did also add the national projections from Zips, Steamer, PECOTA and Marcels and we can mock them too.

 

It’s hard to think of now, but heading into the season, expectations were pretty high. I was hoping for 82-84 wins. Well, they’ve already hit 82 losses and have been trying for their 50th win for 11 games now.

 

Below, you will find each player I did a prediction for. You’ll see my predictions with a link to that article. For each player, I added a few more things I was looking for this season and found a couple of key stats for each player. Click the links and re-read those. Again, I do think to remind us that projections are just that… they’re educated (or at least semi-educated) guesses. Obviously injury factors into some of these seasons as well. And hey, I may have even been fairly close on some.So enjoy this look back.

 

Byung Ho Park

2016 Seth’s Preseason Prediction: .247/.318/.423 (.741) with 23-2B, 20-HR

ZIPS: .266/.333/.463 (.796)

Steamer: .256/.329/.487 (.816)

PECOTA: .255/.326/.442 (.768)

2016 Actual (to date): .191/.275/.409 (.684) with 9-2B, 1-3B, 12-HR.

 

SUMMARY: No one was real sure how to project Park. He was a big-time power hitter coming from Korea where he also struck out a tremendous amount. He certainly showed some power potential at times, but a sore wrist really affected his play (even if the team and player insist it didn’t). He was optioned to AAA Rochester after 62 games and struggled there (except for a one-week stretch). His season ended officially earlier this week when he had hand surgery. I guess of the four projections listed above, mine would have been the closest, which isn’t something to be proud or happy about.

 

Miguel Sano

2016 Seth’s Preseason Prediction: .287/.398/.538 (.936) with 37-2B, 1-3B, 35-HR

ZIPS: .249/.337/.491 (.828)

Marcels: .272/.368/.497 (.865)

Steamer: .257/.345/.510 (.855)

PECOTA: .245/.339/.496 (.835)

2016 Actual (to date): .244/.329/.465 (.794) with 18-2B, 20-HR

 

SUMMARY: Apparently, I just wanted to believe that the Twins could have really nice things. Now Sano is having a bad year. A look at his OPS says that he’s doing OK. But he did set the bar way too high in his debut second half. The hope was that he could take off from there and keep hitting. We knew that he would strike out a lot. I predicted 220 or so. He missed nearly six weeks due to his hamstring injury, or he might be there. He will pass Brian Dozier’s one year old Twins strikeout record, likely this week, so he’s got that. So yeah, the national rankings were also too high on him just not as much. I believe that Sano can reach the numbers I projected for him in 2016… it’ll just be later.

 

Byron Buxton

2016 Seth’s Preseason Prediction: .247/.302/.424 (.726) with 18-2B, 1-3B, 11-HR

ZIPS: .266/.310/.405 (.715)

Marcel: .244/.300/.386 (.686)

Steamer: .259/.309/.400 (709)

PECOTA: .253/.309/.401 (.710)

2016 Actual (to date): .193/.247/.315 (.561) with 13-2B, 4-3B, 1-HR

 

SUMMARY: Even the most pessimistic of projections was .125 too high. Buxton started slow and just wasn’t able to find success at the plate in 2016. Well he has - to some degree in AAA. The reality is that he just swings and misses too much to be successful right now. He was named the International League’s Hitter of the Week last week. He hit about .310 with homers in four straight games, and yet, he struck out about 42% of his plate appearances. I still believe that Buxton can be a star in the league. His defense alone in center field makes a pitching staff better, but 2016 just wasn’t his year.

 

Eddie Rosario

2016 Seth’s Preseason Prediction: .282/.316/.457 (.773) with 28-2B, 9-3B, 17-HR

ZIPS: .256/.287/.415 (.702)

Marcels: .269/.304/.457 (.761)

Steamer: .257/.291/.411 (.702)

PECOTA: .250/.280/.402 (.682)

2016 Actual (to date): .266/.291/.418 (.709) with 15-2B, 2-3B, 8-HR

 

SUMMARY: The assumption in the offseason was that Rosario would regress. I stayed optimistic that things would break well for the Twins and Rosario. Things were bad enough that he was demoted to Rochester for most of May. Since his return he’s been better. The issue remains his inability to control the strike zone. Now that doesn’t have to mean walks, though that is often a byproduct of a better approach. It just means that he has to know which pitches are strikes and which pitches he can drive, and swing at those, and not swing at things well off the plate. He’s been a little better with that since his return, but still will look silly at times.

 

Eduardo Escobar

2016 Seth’s Preseason Prediction: .246/.295/.389 (.684) with 33-2B, 3-3B, 13-HR

ZIPS: .256/.302/.409 (.711)

Marcels: .250/.270/.444 (.715)

Steamer: .261/.310/.393 (.703)

PECOTA: .253/.294/.375 (.659)

2016 Actual (to date): .269/.299/.389 (.688) with 14-2B, 2-3B, 5-HR

 

SUMMARY: Escobar was finally going to get his opportunity to be an everyday player this year after putting up terrific second halves the last two seasons. Unfortunately, he struggled early and then got hurt. Then Eduardo Nunez put together an allsStar rest of the half and Escobar found himself back on the bench. Now Jorge Polanco is getting most of the starts at shortstop. My projection, at least if you take away the batting average, looks pretty good with the rate numbers. However, the counting numbers just aren’t there because of the lack of playing time.

 

Trevor Plouffe

2016 Seth’s Preseason Prediction: .252/.314/.442 (.756) with 38-2B, 1-3B, 25-HR

ZIPS: .252/.315/.427 (.742)

Marcels: .251/.313/.423 (.736)

Steamer: .250/.315/.422 (.737)

PECOTA: .246/.310/.418 (.728)

2016 Actual (to date): .260/.299/.409 (.708) with 13-2B, 1-3B, 9-HR.

 

SUMMARY: It’s been a really tough year for Plouffe. He’s had several stints on the disabled list, and he has had some long slumps.He just isn’t getting on base the way you would hope, the way he has in the past. He’s shown some power, but didn’t take a step forward. The Twins have an interesting decision to make with him. Do they give him $8 million to keep him around and play 3B, or do they trust Miguel Sano to be adequate defensively at the hot corner. Comes down to if you think he can play more and play better than he has in 2016.

 

Brian Dozier

2016 Seth’s Preseason Prediction: .255/.342/.457 (.799) with 35-2B, 2-3B, 26-HR

ZIPS: .244/.318/.437 (.756)

Marcels:

Steamer: .241/.319/.405 (.724)

PECOTA:

2016 Actual (to date): .270/.342/.538 (.880) with 31-2B, 5-3B, 30-HR

 

SUMMARY: Our projections for Dozier would have looked silly had we looked a them in late May. Why were we all so optimistic? And then he took off and hasn’t stopped hitting and hitting for power since then. I projected an optimistic .015 increase in batting average which would help propel him toward an .800 OPS. Now that just looks incredibly low, but the national rankings expected even less. Dozier already has 30 homers and more triples than I projected, and he’s just four doubles shy. It’s been a phenomenal three month run for Dozier. And Twins fans can just imagine the numbers he could put up if he put it all together for a full season.

 

Joe Mauer

2016 Preseason Prediction: .294/.363/.426 (.789) with 33-2B, 1-3B, 13-HR

ZIPS: ..276/.356/.387 (.742)

Marcels: .274/.349/.400 (.749)

Steamer: .274/.355/.390 (.745)

PECOTA: .279/.360/.387 (.747)

2016 Actual (to date): .275/.375/.401 (.777) with 17-2B, 4-3B, 10-HR

 

SUMMARY: As we approach September, Mauer’s season has been full of mini-hot and mini-cold streaks, but overall, it has been a very solid season for the 33-year-old. After two really rough seasons, Mauer has looked a little more like the Mauer of old. No, the batting average hasn’t come all the way back, but he is again taking a lot of walk, and striking out less. The lack of doubles early in the season were inexplicable, though they’ve come back up a little bit. For the most part, he has remained healthy, played well defensively, and been a good top of the lineup hitter for the Twins.

 

Kurt Suzuki

2016 Seth’s Preseason Prediction: .271/.320/.334 (.654) with 15-2B, 2-HR

ZIPS: .253/.305/.334 (.639)

Steamer: .253/.308/.354 (.662)

PECOTA: .247/.299/.349 (.648)

2016 Actual (to date): .277/.318/.421 (.740) with 22-2B, 1-3B, 6-HR

 

SUMMARY: Suzuki has played like 2014 first-half Suzuki most of the last few months. I thought that the Twins would start the season with Suzuki playing two out of three games but that it would transition to a 50/50 split in the second and third months. I figured by this time that the Twins would still be competing and John Ryan Murphy would be catching two out of three. Suzuki has hit well. Maybe it’s the Axe Bat, or maybe the fact that he is playing less overall has kept him fresh. As you can see, my .654 OPS prediction was right in line with the other projections, and he has been much better than that, even displaying some pop.

 

John Ryan Murphy

2016 Seth’s Preseason Prediction: .280/.337/.407 (.744) with 19-2B, 1-3B, 8-HR

ZIPS: .245/.295/.379 (.674)

Steamer: .253/.306/.394 (.700)

Marcels: .269/.323/.396 (.719)

PECOTA: .254/.305/.390 (.695)

2016 Actual (to date): .075/.119/.100 (.219) with 1-2B (11 G, 40 PA)

 

SUMMARY: Yeah, I was bullish on Murphy coming into the season. I figured he’s been solid as Brian McCann’s backup the last few years. He’s displayed some pop in his bat in limited time. And, defensively, he was said to be ‘average’ which was a significant improvement over what we’ve seen the last couple of years. Well, the defense is fine, but Murphy just hasn’t hit all year. He had like three hits in spring training. And he hit .075 in the season’s first month (admittedly a very small sample size). Unfortunately, his trip to Rochester hasn’t helped much. In his last 27 games, he’s hit .302/.337/.360 (.697) but his hot streaks have been overwhelmed by some long cold streaks.

 

OVERALL SUMMARY: As with all of the preseason projections, I had a few that I was close on, and a few that I was way off on. As you might expect, I was a bit too optimistic on several players. Brian Dozier has significantly exceeded his projections. So have Kurt Suzuki and Joe Mauer. But for the most part, the Twins hitters have been as hoped, or worse (specifically Byungho Park, Byron Buxton and John Ryan Murphy).

 

I recommend clicking into my preseason projection articles for more detailed keys to success and predictions. Some of them are now funny to read. Others are fairly spot on. And go into the Comments and see how your preseason predictions look now.

 

Again, I also predicted the Twins would win about 82-84 games, so in general, my prediction game wasn’t too good this year. And, the Twins hitting has actually not been too terrible overall, especially the last two months or so when they’ve been one of the highest-scoring teams in baseball.

 

Click here to view the article

[tobi0040]

Sad to say but the pitcher projections are probably worse

[WiesbadenDAN]

Ya know Seth, even though I was pretty pessimistic coming into this season, I do not believe there was any way to predict many things that have gone wrong this season.  Last season did seem a little bit like smoke and mirrors and I am hoping that this year was just as much in the opposite direction smoky and mirrory.   The offense however has given me hope, and as you point out there is so much room for improvement.  The pitching staff on the other hand is about to get expensive, if the Twins are serious at all about contending in the near future.

[wsnydes]

I always enjoy these "look back at the yearly predictions" type things.  It's fun to see what you thought going into the season and how they turned out.  Not in a mocking way, just to see how things play out.  It's humorous and irritating all at the same time.  Thanks for the early reactions.  Considering how the season has unfolded, I think you did pretty well.  I'm with tobi, I'm sure the pitcher projections were worse and as entertaining as these are I'm not sure that I want to see that one.  

[Vanimal46]

We were all drinking the Twins kool-aid on Sano, Buxton, and for the most part Escobar. It's too bad our vision didn't come to fruition about JR Murphy getting 60+% of the games by June. Good thing we didn't predict pitchers, otherwise we'd all look silly  

[theBOMisthebomb]

It didn't seem silly in late March/early April. So is life.

[Rosterman]

It is always fun to see where predictions end. It's like looking at those Top Prospects lists we make every year and eventually seeing where they went.

[Thrylos]

 

We were all drinking the Twins kool-aid on Sano, Buxton, and for the most part Escobar. 

 

One does not belong in the above grouping.  Hint: he has 111 OPS+ and has been playing out of position for all but 30 games this season

Edited August 30, 2016 by Thrylos

[Vanimal46]

 

One does not belong in the above grouping.  Hint: he has 111 OPS+ and has been playing out of position for all but 30 games this season

Sano has done just fine this season. But, compared to the early season predictions, where most all of us said 30+ HRs and generating MVP votes? Yeah, we were drinking the kool-aid. 

[Thrylos]

 

Sano has done just fine this season. But, compared to the early season predictions, where most all of us said 30+ HRs and generating MVP votes? Yeah, we were drinking the kool-aid. 

 

30+ HRs are not out of reach.  He is 10 away.  Playing out of position and getting hurt did not help

[gocgo]

I think the more interesting thing is to think ahead to your predictions for next year.  Yikes!....52 wins...uuuuhhhh...8000 runs allowed...5 sleeping fans killed or injured by rockets hit to the stands in the oufield. 

[TheLeviathan]

Any time you stick your neck out you risk being wrong, I was surprised the gaps weren't as large on some players.  Buxton has managed to live down all expectations, I think that's one thing we can all agree on: none of us were even close to being right about him.

 

And you didn't even have to be bullish, even rooting for competence was too bullish.

[ashbury]

has been playing out of position for all but 30 games this season

38 games in RF, 30 at 3B and 27 as DH... there are some who will claim that he's been out of position for all but 27.

[h2oface]

It's hard not to be a homer when dealing with your favorite team and considering politicking for access is involved. How has Mauer significantly exceeded your projections? Suzuki and Dozier started slow, but the two vets are about all that has. Better luck next year. Always fun to do.

[jimmer]

 

38 games in RF, 30 at 3B and 27 as DH... there are some who will claim that he's been out of position for all but 27.

raises hand

[HitInAPinch]

 

30+ HRs are not out of reach.  He is 10 away.  Playing out of position and getting hurt did not help

And yet he's still only 10 HR's away from 30.  2nd year, scouting reports completed.  I'm not surprised by the decline, but thought he'd still have a BA closer to .260 and have an OPS closer to last season. 

The hammy injury on legs that big really slowed him down. 

His offensive stats between 3rd and RF are pretty compatible.  Sano was a good trooper on the RF move.  I give him big credit for that.

And there was mention of "entitlement issues"  [  Molitor's words, not mine ] that got Sano benched, briefly.

 

I'm still a "buy" on Sano's future.  And cowardly enough to stay out of the stats-guessing business   :-)

[HitInAPinch]

Seriously, who could have predicted the incredibly lousy start of this season??   It was like Spring Training never happened..

[jimmer]

 

Seriously, who could have predicted the incredibly lousy start of this season??   It was like Spring Training never happened..

The last 11 games kind of shows maybe the lousy start wasn't quite as out of line as one might have originally thought :-)

[EddieMatthews]

Once burned, twice shy.  The 2017 forecasts will be dismal.  NOT!

 

The spin will come from the new GM and from spring training.  The forecast will predict that Buxton, Sano, Park, Vargas, Kepler, etc will all be on the up bounce.  Mayer and Dozier will have good years.  81-81 WL, 

 

That's my forecast.

[Seth Stohs]

I'd still be a buyer Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios and others. 

[jimmer]

 

I'd still be a buyer Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios and others. 

I'd be right with you on a majority of those listed.

[sorney]

 

Once burned, twice shy.  The 2017 forecasts will be dismal.  NOT!

 

The spin will come from the new GM and from spring training.  The forecast will predict that Buxton, Sano, Park, Vargas, Kepler, etc will all be on the up bounce.  Mayer and Dozier will have good years.  81-81 WL, 

 

That's my forecast.

Incredibly bold prediction being they still haven't ruled out bringing back the current regime.  I am buying, what you are selling!!!