Article: A Broken Defensive Heart

[Cody Christie]

It can be one of the most exciting plays in baseball.

 

A pitcher finds himself with runners on base before a perfectly placed pitch coaxes a ground ball to a middle infielder. After a flip to second and a laser throw to first, the defense is walking off the field. Fans in the stands get on their feet for the perfectly timed double play.

 

But what's been the Twins' double play trouble this season?Minnesota is actually near the top of the American League when it comes to turning double plays. Only the Texas Rangers have turned more double plays than the Minnesota Twins. On the surface, this seems like it could be a positive place for the Twins to be. But when one digs a little further, there are some hidden problems.

 

Twins pitchers have been able to collect more double plays because they are allowing more base runners than other teams. Minnesota has allowed the highest batting average in the AL by 13 points. They also rank last in WHIP, BABIP, and left on-base %. According to FanGraphs WAR, Twins pitchers rank ahead of only the Angles and they trail the Yankees, the highest ranking team, by over 10 WAR.

 

Another hidden problem has been Minnesota's defensive problems. The Twins defense has a negative 33.5 defensive runs saved (DRS), the second worst mark in the American League. Following this weekend's tough series in Toronto, the Twins have now committed 100 defensive errors (55 fielding errors and 43 throwing errors). The next closest team in the AL is 17 errors behind the Twins.

 

Earlier this season, I discussed Minnesota's defensive dilemma and things haven't gotten better according to the latest update (through August 7, 2016) of SABR's Defensive Index (SDI). Joe Mauer dropped from second to fourth among AL first basemen. Brian Dozier continues to rank near the bottom among second baseman with a -3.2 SDI. Like Dozier, Kurt Suzuki ranks as the third worst player at his position.

 

Other players haven't accumulated enough time to be featured in the rankings but there are not many positives to be found among that cohort either. Max Kepler has the most errors among all right fielders in the American League. Not to be outdone, Robbie Grossman has the most errors among all left fielders in the American League. Then there was this play from over the weekend.

 

If Minnesota wants to dig out of their current hole, there are plenty of changes that need to occur. One of the easiest ways to improve the pitching staff is to have better defense behind them. Twins' pitchers are giving up hits and the defense isn't helping the situation.

 

Even with double plays piling up, there are other glaring holes. Big innings can be avoided with better defense. Starters can make it deeper into games with better defense. The bullpen can be relied on less often with better defense.

 

When fans walk through Gate 34, they pass a giant glove with all the names of former Gold Glove winners. Fielding was part of the heart of the organizational philosophy.

 

Now that heart seems to be broken.

 

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[troyhobbs]

Kepler spent a lot of time at 1B in the minors, Rosario bounced between 2B and CF, Sano to RF was a major head scratcher, Escobar has been forced into a UTIL role, as has Danny Santana (and Nunez), Dozier and Plouffe used to be SS, Mauer was C, etc. So you got like 2 or 3 positional players on the roster that play the same position they played coming up through the minors. Total system failure....

[ToddlerHarmon]

This article makes it pretty hopeless, and unfortunately that's the truth.

 

Potential defensive improvements, all of which hurt the offense: Buxton in center, Rosario back to left, Polanco to second, Escobar at short, Murphy at catcher. Still leaves Sano at third and Kepler in right, and Escobar is only average defensively.

 

Brutal choices left for the new guy in charge

[Comrade Bork]

Wouldn't have guessed 6 errors was the most for all right fielder's

[jimmer]

Good thing we know better than to judge defense by errors. Kepler has 3 DRS. He is not a detriment

Out there.

[howieramone2]

The defense will become much better once Sano becomes the fulltime DH and stops flopping around the field.

[DocBauer]

Mauer stoll ranks high. Sano playing 3B and only 3B will assist in his improvement. Kepler looks good in the OF to me, and it seems most of his errors came early while he was settling in. It's not the prettiest picture I've seen, but it's not quite as bad as painted, IMO.

[Kwak]

"...100 errors, 55 fielding and 33 throwing." What could be the other two? They don't charge errors for baserunning (TG! because there are far more than two!), or hitting/bunting, or on the manager/coaches. What's left to charge an error on?

Edited August 30, 2016 by Kwak

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Rosario-Buxton-Kepler will be an above average defensive outfield sooner rather than later. In time they could be better than many people right now think.

[Thrylos]

Agree, definitely defense is hurting the team big time.  The SABR index, as mentioned is limited to only 3 players and lots of extrapolating is necessary.  Not to worry, one can use the similar Fangraphs, team defense index.  Link here.   And yes the Twins are the fourth worst team in the majors and the second worst in the AL.

 

That hurts the team.  But it is not a big enough excuse about the pitching.  Notched just 2 sports above the Twins in that defensive list are the Cardinals, and one spot above them are the Mets.  The Mets are 3rd in MLB ERA (but first in FIP) and the Cardinals 11th in ERA (but 6th in FIP.)  The Twins' pitching staff is 29th in ERA and 27th in FIP.   

 

Yes bad defense hurts overall, but does not hurt a team quite as much as one might think it does.  It might make the difference in making it to the post-season or not (Mets and Cardinals) but it does not make a staff that stinks (Twins) to stink that much more...

 

They are awful... 

 

So the emphasis should be in getting better pitchers, with the fielding being a bit more than the cherry on top, but it kinda is.  Horrible pitchers with the best fielding in the world would do you no good, ask the Angels, the 8th best fielding team in the majors and 3rd in the AL...

Edited August 30, 2016 by Thrylos

[jimmer]

Defense isnt the only factor that effects the difference between FIP and ERA

[Winston Smith]

Very hard to cover up bad pitching with anything other than better pitchers.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Very hard to cover up bad pitching with anything other than better pitchers.

 

True, but a competent defense might make our horrible pitching at least look "bad" rather than "I think I'll watch paint dry instead".

[Loosey]

I'm not an advanced defensive metric savant, so I will have to take your word and fangraphs and SABR's word that Dozier isn't very good at fielding baseballs.  I also agree by using the eye test.  

 

That being said I hope someone on the Twins analytics staff can do an analysis that would show the difference in runs if Dozier was traded for a good starting pitcher and Polanco moved to second base.  You will probably lose 20 HR's but what will the new pitcher bring in runs saved over the year, and how many runs better will Polanco be defensively?  Additionally, even though Polanco will not be as powerful as Dozier I think he will hit for a higher average and OBP, so will his defense and ability to get on base make up for the lost runs in a Dozier trade?    

[ashbury]

if Dozier was traded for a good starting pitcher

OPS is a nice "quick" stat, but it over-values slugging and under-values on-base percentage. So your question about how much actual dropoff in offense Polanco would represent is a fair one. There might not be any.

 

OTOH other teams are aware of this too, and will value HR in their proper context. Combining this with the defensive metrics for Dozier, and I am suddenly not too optimistic about what quality of pitcher we can actually obtain for him. We might need to package Dozier with a good prospect below our very top-tier group, to get what we want. 

 

I am back to being on the fence about which of our second basemen to trade.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I am old school--use eyeball test rather than metrics--but metrics confirm what my eyes see--Twins defense sucks--an outfield of Grossman, Kepler and Rosario probably gives teams an extra out or two a game and makes it tougher on the pitchers. Buxton needs to be up cause he can make OF defense (somewhat) respectable...Twins need to start emphasizing defense in minors--cause people coming up don't know fundamentals...

[jimmer]

"...100 errors, 55 fielding and 33 throwing." What could be the other two? They don't charge errors for baserunning (TG! because there are far more than two!), or hitting/bunting, or on the manager/coaches. What's left to charge an error on?

do you mean the other 12? :-)

[Vanimal46]

 

I'm not an advanced defensive metric savant, so I will have to take your word and fangraphs and SABR's word that Dozier isn't very good at fielding baseballs.  I also agree by using the eye test.  

 

That being said I hope someone on the Twins analytics staff can do an analysis that would show the difference in runs if Dozier was traded for a good starting pitcher and Polanco moved to second base.  You will probably lose 20 HR's but what will the new pitcher bring in runs saved over the year, and how many runs better will Polanco be defensively?  Additionally, even though Polanco will not be as powerful as Dozier I think he will hit for a higher average and OBP, so will his defense and ability to get on base make up for the lost runs in a Dozier trade?    

I've got to imagine this is being done. Not sure how to calculate it, but that's why they're paid the big bucks to figure it out. 

[gocgo]

 

I'm not an advanced defensive metric savant, so I will have to take your word and fangraphs and SABR's word that Dozier isn't very good at fielding baseballs.  I also agree by using the eye test.  

 

That being said I hope someone on the Twins analytics staff can do an analysis that would show the difference in runs if Dozier was traded for a good starting pitcher and Polanco moved to second base.  You will probably lose 20 HR's but what will the new pitcher bring in runs saved over the year, and how many runs better will Polanco be defensively?  Additionally, even though Polanco will not be as powerful as Dozier I think he will hit for a higher average and OBP, so will his defense and ability to get on base make up for the lost runs in a Dozier trade?    

Here's one of the issues that is tough to calculate.  Dozier is a home run threat and that affects not only how he is pitched, but also how the guy in front of him is pitched.  For example, if Dozier is leading off, the #9 batter should see better pitches especially with 2 outs.  Walking the guy in front of a home run hitter is a recipe for disaster.  If we trade Dozier, it can't be for a prospect.  It has to be for a really good short stop, a really good catcher, or a really good pitcher.

[Platoon]

I don't know if or what stat takes into account all the mishandled balls and poor feeds that turn into only one out on a DP ball. Or the throws that aren't handled cleanly on a tag play, no error recorded, and no out. There have been a lot of them at second base this year.

[howieramone2]

 

Mauer stoll ranks high. Sano playing 3B and only 3B will assist in his improvement. Kepler looks good in the OF to me, and it seems most of his errors came early while he was settling in. It's not the prettiest picture I've seen, but it's not quite as bad as painted, IMO.

The problem is he can improve a great deal and never be anywhere near good enough to play in The Show. I'm not pointing a finger at you, but the board speaks out of one side of it's mouth and says the defense must improve, while the other side of the mouth insists Sano play 3B.

 

The first team to make Sano a fulltime DH wins.

[HitInAPinch]

So basically, if Twins pitchers didn't allow so many hits, the Twins fielders would play better defense, correct?       

[Deduno Abides]

OPS is a nice "quick" stat, but it over-values slugging and under-values on-base percentage. So your question about how much actual dropoff in offense Polanco would represent is a fair one. There might not be any.

 

OTOH other teams are aware of this too, and will value HR in their proper context. Combining this with the defensive metrics for Dozier, and I am suddenly not too optimistic about what quality of pitcher we can actually obtain for him. We might need to package Dozier with a good prospect below our very top-tier group, to get what we want. 

 

I am back to being on the fence about which of our second basemen to trade.

 

RE your last sentence: the one who's older and whose contract runs out soonest.

[h2oface]

Good thing we know better than to judge defense by errors. Kepler has 3 DRS. He is not a detriment

Out there.

.......most of the time. He arguably has the two top bloopers of the year, though.

[TheLeviathan]

I think this just proves you can measure our defense by any means you want and it still turns out as The Suck.