Article: Planning To Fail

[wsnydes]

 

 

The Twins need hitting! The star of this season screamed that fact--so did early August. Hence, not only did Sano have to be in the lineup--other power hitters were also needed! Here comes Park from Korea. Signing Park was only a failure borne from the need for hitting, it was some clueless, random act. The Twins knew they needed more offense and Park might do the trick "on the cheap".

 

 

Of the three phases of the game; pitching, defense, and hitting, if you're going to tell me that hitting was at the top of the priority list of areas to improve heading into last offseason you're nuts.  The bats finished middle of the pack last year while the pitching was near the bottom and defense wasn't far behind.  TR himself even said that pitching was a priority.  Hitting would have been at the bottom of my priority list with pitching being far and away the highest priority.  The biggest weaknesses of this team from a year ago were ignored and the one decent aspect was "improved".

 

I do agree that this FO doesn't do everything wrong.  Their decisions shouldn't be generalized with a broad brush.

[Craig Arko]

One thing I gotta mention here. If there's some Grand Plan here that can turn the Twins into a dynasty like the Yankees have been throughout the decades, I'm not seeing it.

 

We all know they've been bad, historically bad even. I also don't see where calling that out for the 1001st time is going to make a damn bit of difference.

 

Lay a plan out on paper (or bits, as the case may be) to change things, hopefully improve them. That would make for a more interesting discussion, don't you think?

 

If I had one, I'd do just that. But you guys know inner baseball workings a lot better than I ever will. Show us something.

[Loosey]

 

Good analysis.  I agree with one area of dissent - Signing E Santana was a GOOD thing.  He is a quality major league pitcher who would be the number 3 guy on a contending team''s staff.  Those guys don't just grow on tress and evidence shows us that he isn't blocking anyone. We need to keep him; he is the only quality MLB starting pitcher we have. Gibson looks like he may never "turn the corner" to become a full fledged quality MLB starter (he sure isn't that now) and everything after that is a complete crap shoot unless Hughes miraculously comes back as his 2104 version. Other than that, great analysis. 

 

This really points to the system failure and reason Ryan had to go - The past administration was content with being decent and not committed to taking the risks necessary to really contend. We need a new GM/President who will take risk and be willing to live with possible failure instead of always defaulting to the mediocre middle.  

I agree signing Santana has ended up being a good thing.  If he pitches like this next year the team stinks they could get a return for him.  He was just an example of being sort of an out of place signing.  If would have been signed prior to this season after 2015's near wild card miss, that would have been great, but it didn't fit the mold of a team rebuilding.  Basically, they lucked into him it seems. 

[alarp33]

 

When you look back on something and know how it's going to work out, it's easy to pick it apart. It's harder to do it in December 2015.

 

Sano is no more a third baseman right now than a right fielder. So faulting them for not trading a good third baseman in Plouffe is fun. They tried the same tricks that worked for a similar defensive tooled Cuddyer ten years ago. It failed. But it was a decent enough idea to try and keep Sano from first base.

 

Yes, the Twins were lacking right handed bats who could DH in December. It's not like you could count on Vargas to turn things around. 

 

And yes, the control-oriented Phil Hughes year last year looked a lot like the bad Radke year in 2015. At that point, a bounce back year was within the realm of possibility.

 

You can't fault Ryan for not having a plan. The real problem is the plan hasn't adapted much over the last decade.

 

The same Plouffe that has an OPS under .700 over the past 14 months is this "good" 3rd baseman?

 

Miguel Sano wasn't around in December?  You could certainly count on Vargas as much as a complete unknown 29 year old transitioning from South Korea to the Major Leagues

 

Phil Hughes had an ERA+ last year of 91.  The lowest of Brad Radke's career was 91, when he was a 22 year old Rookie.  Outside of Radke's rookie year his ERA+ averaged 114 per year.  A mark Hughes has never once reached as a starter.  Hughes career ERA+ is 95.

 

 

Edited August 29, 2016 by alarp33

[TheLeviathan]

Man I hate these faux positive vs. negative discussions.  Most of the time they are rooted in someone's own preferences and perceptions and rarely in fact.

 

Are there some here that rip and piss and moan constantly with no redeemable posting traits?  Yes, I largely ignore them.  Are there some here that do nothing but paint every mistake as a positive and put the team and it's decision makers on undeserved pedestals?  Yes, I largely ignore them too.  

 

The vast majority of us, and Nick is definitely included, post criticism and praise we feel warranted.  And most of us argue/defend those stances fairly.  I've disagreed many times with Nick (hell, this whole offseason pretty much)  but at no point did I feel his optimism should change because it didn't jive with me.  He's entitled to his stance, so long as he is prepared to defend it honestly and fairly.  And he does.  If I felt at any point this site was intentionally posting fluff and other nonsense in some misguided effort to have a "balance" of positivity and negativity I'd bail in a heartbeat.  I want to read honest, thoughtful opinions.  When we're 30 some games under 500, I expect most of those opinions to be critical.  They should be.  If they weren't, I'd start to question the honesty and integrity of the person giving the opinion. 

 

This team has earned criticism.  I'm hoping this offseason they start finding a way to earn some praise.  I'll be watching, listening, and reading everything on this board and I hope the opinions continue to be espoused based on the merit of the opinion, not some token effort to appease the audience.  

Edited August 29, 2016 by TheLeviathan

[kenbuddha]

While I don't disagree with your article, I think it's an article that articulates where the Twins went wrong, not where they are currently going wrong. Your first sentence seems to imply that this article will articulate what is wrong with their plan.

 

If it is an article about what is wrong, I think it is premature. The Twins are in a holding pattern right now until they hire someone to create a plan.

 

Since they had intended that Terry Ryan finish the year as GM, I assume they didn't plan on making that hire until the season was over. So, in the mean time, Antony fills in and while several players have gone through waivers, I doubt they make any major moves without a new Head of Baseball Operations in place.

[Doomtints]

Planning to fail.

 

Failing to plan.  

[gmarais66]

There's a lot of finger pointing here, which is expected, because there are so many problems within the Twins' organization. If you break it down though, the two biggest problems with this team in the last six years have been pitching and defense. This year's team has not been horrible offensively, but no team can be expected to have to score seven or eight runs a game to have a chance to win. It's safe to say that with even a middle-of-the-road starting rotation, this team would have won many more games than it has.

 

It never seemed to me that Ryan put much of an emphasis on starting pitching, which was very frustrating and confusing. Granted, one year he did try to acquire talented prospects in May and Meyer, which has been a disaster to this point. Beyond that he signed one re-tread starter after another or relied on soft-throwing sub-marginal starters from the Twins' system. The result was complete collapse. Even casual Twins' fans had little hope the starting rotation could be effective from one year to the next, so how did a major league general manager honestly believe he was assembling a competitive starting rotation? Absolutely mind boggling...

 

On the defensive side, it seems like an organizational failure. Players are somehow going through the entire system, not learning defensive basics. I'm not sure how or why this change occurred, but it is absolutely unacceptable for major league players to look that pathetic in the field. There is no excuse for it other than large-scale organizational ineptitude. 

 

I'm hopeful that whatever personnel replaces Ryan can turn this ship around. At first glance it seems almost insurmountable, but I if they can address pitching and defense in a bold fashion, I think it can turn around quite quickly.

 

 

[d-mac]

 

No offense to Nick intended, but IMHO it's sh*t like this article that have made this site almost unreadable. The fact that I still come here so often speaks to what a strong fan of the Twins I am, and certainly not to the tone and quality of the content bring posted. It has pretty much been reduced to the following: Every move made by the Twins is sh*t. I know better than seasoned professionals what is right for this team. MY priorities are what matter, and if the team's don't align with them then they are wrong. If a player isn't performing like an All-Star RIGHT NOW, he's crap and not worth a roster spot. Anyone under the age of 25 is ok, anyone older is crap. If an All-Star player like Dozier or Mauer go through a stretch of rough play for a period of weeks, he's crap, cooked, worthless. Like all baseball video games have shown, a player performs at the same level all the time. And if his rating dips below All-Star, you trade him for a prospect that will always turn into a new All-Star, because that's how player development actually works. Now imagine, a positive upbeat fan trying to follow his favorite team and having to wade through a sea of this sh*t every day. And before anyone tells me that I'm out of touch with reality let me say that to a large extent, reality conforms to your attitude and mind-set. Reality is what you make it, or as ObiWan said, many of the truths we cling to depend on your point of view. I don't know, maybe there's just a hell of a lot of bitter, miserable, depressed people in Minnesota and on this site.

 

Get off my lawn you damn kids with your video baseball!

[Vanimal46]

 

There's a lot of finger pointing here, which is expected, because there are so many problems within the Twins' organization. If you break it down though, the two biggest problems with this team in the last six years have been pitching and defense. This year's team has not been horrible offensively, but no team can be expected to have to score seven or eight runs a game to have a chance to win. It's safe to say that with even a middle-of-the-road starting rotation, this team would have won many more games than it has.

 

It never seemed to me that Ryan put much of an emphasis on starting pitching, which was very frustrating and confusing. Granted, one year he did try to acquire talented prospects in May and Meyer, which has been a disaster to this point. Beyond that he signed one re-tread starter after another or relied on soft-throwing sub-marginal starters from the Twins' system. The result was complete collapse. Even casual Twins' fans had little hope the starting rotation could be effective from one year to the next, so how did a major league general manager honestly believe he was assembling a competitive starting rotation? Absolutely mind boggling...

 

On the defensive side, it seems like an organizational failure. Players are somehow going through the entire system, not learning defensive basics. I'm not sure how or why this change occurred, but it is absolutely unacceptable for major league players to look that pathetic in the field. There is no excuse for it other than large-scale organizational ineptitude. 

 

I'm hopeful that whatever personnel replaces Ryan can turn this ship around. At first glance it seems almost insurmountable, but I if they can address pitching and defense in a bold fashion, I think it can turn around quite quickly.

Good post. I agree completely that pitching and defense need to be the main focus in turning around this organization. 

In fairness to the starting pitching staff, TR did make an effort to shore things up by signing Nolasco, Hughes, and Erv. Nolasco's injuries and ineffectiveness caused a lot of fans to be upset, me included. Erv has worked out so far, minus the PED suspension. Hughes would have been fine if they didn't double down on the investment after 1 season.

 

Going into 2017 it appears the rotation is even worse off than it was in 2013... Not sure how that is possible, but unless trades are made, that's what it will look like.

 

The defensive woes IMO are inexcusable. Something has been lost in philosophy/communication between the minor leagues and MLB team. If this team can't pitch well, they better field the ball well.  

 

[jimmer]

 

Get off my lawn you damn kids with your video baseball!

Well, he did quote the great philosopher, Obi-Wan (lines written by the well known writer of dialogue, George Lucas, to prove a point :-)

 

Plato, Aristotle, Socrates, Nietzsche and Obi Wan Kenobe.

Edited August 29, 2016 by jimmer

[d-mac]

 

Attention all TD Posters: you have the right to remain positive. Everything is perfectly fine. Remember, loyal fans, you cannot spell Twin without 'win.' So, there's that. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro

 

Twins' front-office defenders.

[d-mac]

 

Well, he did quote the great philosopher, Obi-Wan (lines written by the well known writer of dialogue, George Lucas, to prove a point :-)

 

Plato, Aristotle, Socrates, Nietzsche and Obi Wan Kenobe.

 

"These are not the posts you are looking for."

[old nurse]

 

" If there was a greater sense that the team had its arms around the problems and a clear plan to address them, many of the angst-driven comments that you don't enjoy would go away.
 

When it is about the major league club any accomplishment seems to get minimized.  The keeping of Duffrey on the roster while struggling was ridiculed, followed by ridicule for sending him down. Any chance to take a shot is not missed.  The negativity will not go away.

[d-mac]

 

Yeah, but that's Boston. BOSTON. That comparison doesn't count ...

 

That's most sports towns- when things go bad fans demand blood. Even more so in places like Boston, New York, Philly. But Minnesota is pretty much ho-hum about everything when things go bad- which is probably part of why when many of us get out our pitch forks, some people's Minnesota sensibilities get offended. 

[d-mac]

 

Good analysis.  I agree with one area of dissent - Signing E Santana was a GOOD thing.  He is a quality major league pitcher who would be the number 3 guy on a contending team''s staff.  Those guys don't just grow on tress and evidence shows us that he isn't blocking anyone. We need to keep him; he is the only quality MLB starting pitcher we have. Gibson looks like he may never "turn the corner" to become a full fledged quality MLB starter (he sure isn't that now) and everything after that is a complete crap shoot unless Hughes miraculously comes back as his 2104 version. Other than that, great analysis. 

 

This really points to the system failure and reason Ryan had to go - The past administration was content with being decent and not committed to taking the risks necessary to really contend. We need a new GM/President who will take risk and be willing to live with possible failure instead of always defaulting to the mediocre middle.  

 

I hope we don't see the 2104 version of Hughes, but who knows, maybe he'll be the first cyborg to win the Cy Young.

[wsnydes]

 

I hope we don't see the 2104 version of Hughes, but who knows, maybe he'll be the first cyborg to win the Cy Young.

Unless mechanical issues set him back...

[d-mac]

 

No, but what is annoying, for example this thread, is that the players are totally blameless.  Example A: Sano is treated like a freaking GOD around here. Not one speck of criticism allowed!  the guy might not have a great work ethic? Impossible!! He's the greatest thing the ever pull on a Twins uniform. 

 

Baseball is tough. I'd like to see you go and try to hit 95 mph fastball. 

[d-mac]

 

I'm curious why everyone is rushing to say Park's problem in the majors was his injury.  Did he not have the same injury while posting an OPS in the .820s in the minors?

 

My understanding is that he hurt his wrist in Spring Training and that various wrist/hand injuries have been nagging him all year. Wrist/hand injuries can be extremely detrimental to a hitter, especially when it comes to bat speed. 

[Comrade Bork]

You can't be positive at the expense of being realistic, but you can choose to smile at the bad along with the good. The Twins suck but you don't need to take it personally. If we were just muddling along at .500 we'd REALLY have nothing to talk about.

[Platoon]

No matter ones take on the quality of drafts, or development of pitchers, hitters, and fielders, or the advancement of same, one thing remains an indesputable fact. The Twins are either not emphasizing fundamentals, or are not getting through to the players on their importance. Fundamental baseball has nothing to do with physical talent. It's all about the mental side of the game, and the acceptance of the philosophy. And that is obviously not happening system wide.

[TheLeviathan]

 

When it is about the major league club any accomplishment seems to get minimized.  The keeping of Duffrey on the roster while struggling was ridiculed, followed by ridicule for sending him down. Any chance to take a shot is not missed.  The negativity will not go away.

 

You're right, there is a lot of hypocrisy on those issues.  People would be well served to consider their opinions more carefully because I agree that there are a lot of posters that talk out of both sides of their mouth on things like this.

 

It's an issue I try to comment on very rarely myself.  My motto, and i've said it before a few times, is do what's right for the kid.  I don't know all the ins and outs of that for each kid so I try not to comment directly on any one action.  I will comment on overall trends and things that seem out of place, but there are too many things we don't know because we're not directly working with the players ourselves to go too far expressing those opinions.

 

At the same time, given the magnitude and frequency of the blunders the last few years....is there really surprise at the bitterness?  I mean, we finally get a glimpse of a real star talent in Sano and it seems like the organization has done everything short of deliberately physically injuring him to derail a promising start to a career.  On the larger scale things are a total mess.  Hell, not only is there a bad plan, but there was effusive praise and confidence from the organization that everything was fine and things are rock solid as we were steering directly into an iceberg.  Terry Ryan is a nice guy, but every time i heard him say something that sounded like "There are plenty of life rafts" or "We saw that iceberg coming a mile away, no worries!" only made me more bitter.

 

When people care they will feel hurt, betrayed, angry, and bitter.  What you really need to watch out for is people not caring.  A point Nick deliberately made in his post and is spot on: people are starting to largely not care.  I'll take pages and pages of criticism imploring change every day and twice on Sunday because i know those people at least care and they want the rest of the populace to care with them.

[old nurse]

 

Brian Dozier is having an all-star caliber season, although it took him a while to get rolling so got no consideration in July. Max Kepler is having a productive rookie season. Joe Mauer is hitting well enough to be a major league starter at an offensively challenging position. Ervin Santana has quietly put together a very professional season. Brandon Kintzler has been a pleasant surprise in the bullpen and has even shouldered the role of closer when desperation demanded it.

 

I think that about covers it. Somebody please split these into separate articles and flesh them out. Oops, maybe some of these have already been written; I guess that what makes it a blue moon.

Meh, Dozier should be traded while his value is highest. Kepler is very productive in producing errors and fielding mistakes, Mauer is about the 20th best hitting 1b which is abysmal for his contract, Santana is the 4th starter on any good team. Kinzler is a lucky pickup by the front office.

[Mr. Brooks]

Re: Joe. Ok, fair enough. I understand the general annoyance with people who are constantly negative and critical, but those exist in all walks of life and they're going to be more active at times like this.

 

I simply disagree with the characterization of this site's content as slanting unnecessarily or unfairly negative. I really do not believe that's the case.

If anything the staff content is sometimes too positive, considering the depths of failure surrounding this team for the last 6 years.

 

I thought the article was great, spot on, and necessary. Keep up the good work Nick.

[jimmer]

 

My understanding is that he hurt his wrist in Spring Training and that various wrist/hand injuries have been nagging him all year. Wrist/hand injuries can be extremely detrimental to a hitter, especially when it comes to bat speed. 

but he still managed to boost his OPS by 140 points while playing in the minors?

[Mr. Brooks]

I again ask this thread to find 1 piece of evidence that throwing out of the pen is somehow more stressful and more likely to cause injury than starting. I think it's ludicrous.

Well I'd give May the benefit of the doubt that he knows his own body better than anyone else. He says that his back holds up better with the regular routine of starting. How is that not all the evidence you need?

[jimmer]

There were like 3 whole threads created for the sole purpose of slamming 'negative posters'.  Maybe that'd be a good place to do that instead of hijacking a thread where Nick wrote some things about this team to discuss?

Edited August 29, 2016 by jimmer

[Deduno Abides]

When it is about the major league club any accomplishment seems to get minimized.  The keeping of Duffrey on the roster while struggling was ridiculed, followed by ridicule for sending him down. Any chance to take a shot is not missed.  The negativity will not go away.

When you have a .377 winning percentage, you are probably making some right decisions, but also a lot more wrong ones. Negativity is criticizing a .500+ team for not making correct decisions more often than not. It is not negativity, however, to criticize a .375 team for making wrong decisions much more frequently than good decisions. As a Supreme Court justice once said, it's just calling balls and strikes.

[Jham]

 

Well I'd give May the benefit of the doubt that he knows his own body better than anyone else. He says that his back holds up better with the regular routine of starting. How is that not all the evidence you need?

Ummm... cuz he's not a doctor.  If you want to believe every excuse given by every ball player as to why this or that went wrong, you can.  As I stated, I'm willing to try May out as a starter again.  I doubt he'll be any better or healthier, but I'm willing to see.  What I have an issue with is people spouting opinion like fact.  You say "give the benefit of the doubt" but follow it up immediately with "all the evidence you need."  Anecdotal evidence from a biased source may be all the evidence you need.  I take more convincing.  "He knows his own body better than anyone else" sounds good and perfectly logical, but doesn't stand up to any amount of real scrutiny, scientific or otherwise.  Truth is, many many many players play through injuries they should rehab, and use injuries they play through as convenient excuses for poor performance.  IE players are poor sources of information regarding their actual health and abilities.  I guess Byung Ho should save the doctors some work since he seemed to believe his hand and wrist were fine.  

Edited August 29, 2016 by Jham

[Comrade Bork]

Meh, Dozier should be traded while his value is highest. Kepler is very productive in producing errors and fielding mistakes, Mauer is about the 20th best hitting 1b which is abysmal for his contract, Santana is the 4th starter on any good team. Kinzler is a lucky pickup by the front office.

It's these kind of negative sweeping generalizations that people are complaining about. Opinionated without facts.

Among 1st baseman with 110 games or more this season Joe is

8th in ops

2nd in OBP

3rd in avg

2nd in fld %

 

Kepler has

6 errors good for 8th on the team out of 9 position players. Hmmmm

 

Santana is worth more than we are paying him.

As they say a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally =Kintzler

 

And Dozier is an all star streaky second baseman. We have no idea what the new FO will decide to do with him.

 

Gotta be productive with the criticism.

Edited August 29, 2016 by Comrade Bork