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Article: Arms Race: The Search For Young Starters


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This is why any discussion about trading Dozier needs to define the goals for the trade.

I agree completely. The first order of business is to determine the high-end guys the team wants to go after, and which few of those are realistically possible to acquire. Then a package to offer can be constructed.

 

It's just that with the arrival of Polanco, it seems that Dozier is likely the best trade chip we have. So we kind of cut to the chase, since (as you note) it's the easy part. :)

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Last year, the discussion about trading Gibson came up.  I was a proponent of it, many others said it would be a bad move because he was turning a corner and about to be a quality starter.

 

Is it okay to trade Gibson now (or just not tender him a contract), or are we going to bank on the supposed potential of a guy who will be 29 in a few months?

 

I was in the boat to trade Gibson last year too. I'm not in that boat now though.

 

His value is low but I still want to see if a new GM comes in here and tells him to change his act. He has always been labeled a sinkerball pitcher, and I guess he is, however his sinker is his worst pitch, and it seems to me he is always throwing it as his "out" pitch with two strikes. I'd bet a more analytical team would have long ago told him to use his change and slider more often in two strike counts as opposed to his extremely hittable sinker.

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I was in the boat to trade Gibson last year too. I'm not in that boat now though.

 

His value is low but I still want to see if a new GM comes in here and tells him to change his act. He has always been labeled a sinkerball pitcher, and I guess he is, however his sinker is his worst pitch, and it seems to me he is always throwing it as his "out" pitch with two strikes. I'd bet a more analytical team would have long ago told him to use his change and slider more often in two strike counts as opposed to his extremely hittable sinker.

 

 

Perhaps you meant to say if a new GM comes in here and tells his new pitching coach to get Gibson to change his act. Has a certain appeal, eh?

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Sheffield appears to be in the 80-something range at BA and MLB, and those other two guys did not appear in either MLB's or BA's midseason top 100 list (even though BA's doesn't include recent signings, so it's really probably more like a top ~140 or so).  MLB has them at 9 and 10 in the Yankees system right now, although it's an admittedly good system -- the top 7 were in MLB's top 100, although Sheffield is the only pitcher in that group.

 

I was thinking along the lines of the article, and Vanimal's preference for quality not quantity to help our 2017 rotation.  In those terms, there is no match with the Yankees.

 

If you are willing to take a mix of non-elite, lower level prospects, perhaps even position players, I suppose the Twins could find a match with the Yankees.  It might look something like the return in the Rich Hill trade.  Although the utility of such a trade would be more questionable, of course.

 

All of these guys were in Sickle's top 100 at the beginning of this year, and none have done anything to move off of it. If anything, they should be a bit higher this offseason on some of the other national publications.... and for the record, I'm not really a fan of the MLB list in general. I'll defer more to BA, BP, and Sickles. 

 

That said, I'm not sure what you're expecting if you want quality as all of those guys will have a case for top 100 this offseason. I suspect Sheffield will be midway up the list, but there's a good chance the others will be on the low end of the top 100. I think we agree there that quality over quantity is the right play for BD, but if you're narrowing it down to literally two dozen or so prospects, you're likely not going to find much of a buyer at all. 

 

That being said, knowing they Yankees, they will go out and sign Ramos or Weiters and then trade Sanchez and Sheffield for BD or some other big upgrade.  I wouldn't necessarily rule out Sanchez as an option this fall as the Yankees have the resources needed to get a top catching FA if they think it makes sense.

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All of these guys were in Sickle's top 100 at the beginning of this year, and none have done anything to move off of it. If anything, they should be a bit higher this offseason on some of the other national publications.... and for the record, I'm not really a fan of the MLB list in general. I'll defer more to BA, BP, and Sickles. 

 

That said, I'm not sure what you're expecting if you want quality as all of those guys will have a case for top 100 this offseason. I suspect Sheffield will be midway up the list, but there's a good chance the others will be on the low end of the top 100. I think we agree there that quality over quantity is the right play for BD, but if you're narrowing it down to literally two dozen or so prospects, you're likely not going to find much of a buyer at all. 

 

That being said, knowing they Yankees, they will go out and sign Ramos or Weiters and then trade Sanchez and Sheffield for BD or some other big upgrade.  I wouldn't necessarily rule out Sanchez as an option this fall as the Yankees have the resources needed to get a top catching FA if they think it makes sense.

Thanks, I didn't check Sickels.  If you like BA, note that in their midseason list from July, Sheffield was #69 and the other two pitchers you mentioned were not ranked.  Despite the fact that BA's midseason list excludes new draftees and amateur signings (hence how Mejia was able to sneak in a #91, even though on their offseason list he would probably rank no better than 130-140).

 

I wasn't really picking on your trade idea except in the context of this thread and discussion, which is about helping our 2017 pitching staff.  There's no way to do that in trade with the Yankees.

 

If you want to talk other trade returns, you can certainly talk Yankees and those players you mention could be in the mix.  I would be surprised if the Yankees traded Sanchez, though -- their reputation for aggressively trading prospects has long since passed, and it would be very difficult for them to upgrade their catcher production in 2017 without Sanchez.  (Note that Wieters is worse than McCann.)

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I also tend to doubt that Dozier will be seen as an elite trade target (which he would pretty much have to be, for the Yankees to consider dealing Sanchez right now).  Dozier is having a heck of a year, but he's tracked Neil Walker pretty closely for the last few years (and isn't that far ahead of him this year, 132 wRC+ to 118 with some season left to play).

 

I feel like Dozier would be viewed as a very good 2B on a hot streak, but still in Walker's class, or even Daniel Murphy's.  Murphy settled for 3/37.5 last winter.  I think Walker can get more than that, thanks to his defense, but not an obscene amount more.  4/60?  That would put him above Zobrist's deal too.  Seems like the Yankees or other big spenders would be far more likely to just write that check to Walker to fill a 2B hole, than to cough up elite talent to get Dozier at 2/15.  (Sorta like how the Yankees got Headley for 4/52 a couple winters ago, and took on Castro for $41 mil last winter.)

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OK, so once again, we have the worst pitching in the majors going by BAA...and it isn't close.  One can argue that a better defense could cut that down, but if you've watched any games recently, our opponents are hitting rockets.

 

If you go all the way back to 2011, the highest the Twins have been in BAA is....wait for it....28th!  There are only 30 teams in MLB and in the last 7 years, we have been dead last in pitching 4 of those years, 29th one time, 28th another, and there was that one glorious season where we ranked 24th (2010).

 

Now, I'm no rocket scientist, but it would seem to me that we have a problem in the pitching area.  One would think that a GM should probably turn his or her focus to that area of the organization...just a thought.

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OK, so once again, we have the worst pitching in the majors going by BAA...and it isn't close.  One can argue that a better defense could cut that down, but if you've watched any games recently, our opponents are hitting rockets.

 

If you go all the way back to 2011, the highest the Twins have been in BAA is....wait for it....28th!  There are only 30 teams in MLB and in the last 7 years, we have been dead last in pitching 4 of those years, 29th one time, 28th another, and there was that one glorious season where we ranked 24th (2010).

 

Now, I'm no rocket scientist, but it would seem to me that we have a problem in the pitching area.  One would think that a GM should probably turn his or her focus to that area of the organization...just a thought.

Defense and overall baseball fundamentals may need looking into as well. Having a team so poor in even basic fundamentals on top of having the 2nd worse defense in baseball makes for some rough baseball to watch. 

Edited by jimmer
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No doubt our need this off-season is starting pitching, starting pitching, and starting pitching in that order. Fortunately, we have all kinds of money, vets to trade, and the most valuable commodity in all of baseball, which is young starting pitching. I would look for our new GM to package Gonsalves and one of out IFA starting pitchers for an established starting pitcher. I would guess our scouts are out looking as we speak.

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No doubt our need this off-season is starting pitching, starting pitching, and starting pitching in that order. Fortunately, we have all kinds of money, vets to trade, and the most valuable commodity in all of baseball, which is young starting pitching. I would look for our new GM to package Gonsalves and one of out IFA starting pitchers for an established starting pitcher. I would guess our scouts are out looking as we speak.

 

The problem:  Pitching has been needed for a very long time now.  They need a new approach first, because what they are trying isn't working.  

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No doubt our need this off-season is starting pitching, starting pitching, and starting pitching in that order. Fortunately, we have all kinds of money, vets to trade, and the most valuable commodity in all of baseball, which is young starting pitching. I would look for our new GM to package Gonsalves and one of out IFA starting pitchers for an established starting pitcher. I would guess our scouts are out looking as we speak.

I hope the new GM doesn't make a major move like that right away based on the recommendations of the old scouts / front office / coaches that are responsible for producing the current MLB staff.

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I still don't understand totally why they couldn't get anything for Suzuki and Plouffe last year, and also this year. Okay, maybe I can. Cost vs. production. They are overpaid. They are not essentials. There are other comparable players in the whole world of baseball.

 

Sadly, the Twins somehow have a roster of players that are replaceable at little or no cost, except that the Twins have put them on payroll at a cost that is not appealing to anotehr team (except for Dozier, and anyone that is a rookie).

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I'm on board with filling the pipeline, but we can't ignore catching depth (lack of). I'd be targeting Barnes and Brock Stewart (because I don't think you can get De Leon, but try by all means). I'd also trade Santana - the Rockies seem like a team that could use a veteran that's not De La Rosa to team with their young guys. Maybe we could pry Marquez and Freeland or one of those plus a Castellani.

I want to win in 2017, but I just don't see it.  All these guys could be up in 2017 and hopefully making positive contributions by 2018/2019.

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