Article: Twins Minor League Report (8/23): Wheeler Dominates, Kennys Hits Ball Far

[Steve Lein]

It was a low-scoring night throughout the system Tuesday, but that means there were several good pitching performances for the Twins affiliates. As an organization, they combined for just 19 runs (2.7 per game) on the day, but because of those performance went 5-2 on the day in the minor leagues.To see which other starting pitchers came through besides the dominating effort from lefty Jason Wheeler at AAA, keep reading!

 

But first, congratulations to Twins first-round draft pick, Alex Kirilloff, who was named the Appalachian League's Player of the Yearon Tuesday. He was joined by Lewin Diaz and Patrick McGuff on the league's postseason All-Star team.

 

In the Midwest League, Luis Arraez was named to their postseason All-Star team.

 

RED WINGS REPORT

Rochester 6, Norfolk 0

Box Score

 

Rochester’s offense scored three runs before they played any defense thanks to a three-run homer from Kennys Vargas, and thanks to their starting pitcher, that would be all they needed and more.

 

Byron Buxton led off the game with a double and Reynaldo Rodriguez drew a walk before the Vargas blast to account for the other two runs scored. It was the Jason Wheeler show after that.

 

Wheeler went the game’s first eight innings, shutting out the Tides in the process. He allowed just two hits and one walk while striking out eight. He retired the last ten batters he faced and from the third inning on the only two base runners allowed were on a walk that was erased by a double-play ball, and a throwing error from shortstop Tommy Field. Wheeler’s twelfth victory of the season ties him with Stephen Gonsalves for the organizational lead in wins.

 

D.J. Baxendale came on for the ninth and kept the shutout intact with a scoreless inning. He allowed one hit and struck out one.

 

To begin the third inning, five consecutive hits from Vargas (single), Adam Walker (RBI triple), Daniel Palka (RBI single), Mitch Garver (single), and James Beresford (single) scored two runs and had the bases loaded, but a shallow fly out and double play ended the threat of further damage.

 

Leonardo Reginatto drove in Garver, who had doubled, with an RBI single in the eighth for the Red Wings final run.

 

Vargas (2-4, 2 R’s, HR, 3 RBIs, BB), Garver (4-4, R, 2B), and Reginatto (3-4, RBI) had multiple hits for the majority of Rochester’s thirteen as a team on the game.

 

CHATTANOOGA CHATTER

Chattanooga 2, Jacksonville 3

Box Score

 

Aaron Slegers made the start for the Lookouts in this one and pitched into the seventh inning. The damage came on a two-run home run in the third inning to give the Suns the lead, but Slegers left the game with it tied at two and two runners on in the seventh..

 

Zack Jones was summoned and gave up a single to load the bases, but struck out the next two batters to close the door and keep the game tied going into the eighth. Slegers allowed just two runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out three in his 6.1 innings pitched.

 

Chattanooga tied the game at two in the sixth inning thanks to an error that allowed Levi Michael to score (he had led off with a double), and an RBI groundout from Ryan Walker to score Zach Granite who also stole his forty-eighth base of the season.

 

Jones added a scoreless eighth inning, and came on for the ninth as well. Unfortunately, it was probably a decision manager Doug Mientkiewitz would like to take back. Four base-on-balls later (including one intentional) and the Suns would send their fans home happy with a literal walk-off win.

 

Jones finished with the loss, and one run allowed on two hits and four walks in his 2.1 innings. He struck out four as well.

 

Engelb Vielma and Travis Harrison each had two hits in the game, but Michael’s double was the Lookouts only extra-base hit.

 

MIRACLE MATTERS

Palm Beach 1, Fort Myers 2

Box score

 

Fort Myers got an excellent performance from their starting pitcher at Hammond Stadium in this one, as Randy LeBlanc picked up his fifth win with the Miracle.

 

LeBlanc has been going through some struggles, having allowed fifteen earned runs, twenty-seven hits, and five walks in his last three starts in just ten innings pitched, but that didn’t matter in this one.

 

He allowed just three hits, one walk and struck out six in his seven innings. He held the Cardinals hitless the first time through the order before a walk and a single started the fourth inning, and then then retired nine in a row again before a single in the seventh inning.

 

The Miracle took a 1-0 lead in the sixth thanks to a two-out RBI single from Alex Perez that scored Joe Maloney who had doubled leading off the frame. They added a needed insurance run in the eighth on a costly throwing error from the Palm Beach first baseman on a bunt attempt trying to catch the lead runner at third.

 

Michael Theofanopoulos pitched a scoreless inning, walking one and striking out one, before John Curtiss was brought in for the save opportunity in the ninth. He made it interesting by allowing three singles to score one for the Cardinals, but two strikeouts helped him escape with his third save with Fort Myers.

 

KERNELS NUGGETS

Quad Cities 1, Cedar Rapids 2

Box Score

 

Cedar Rapids took the early 1-0 lead in the bottom of the first inning with a two-out rally from Zander Wiel and Luis Arreaz. (This seems like the opposite of how the typical 3/4 spots in the lineup should be occupied by these two, but I’m not complaining.) Weil knocked his twenty-sixth double of the season (the 48th XBH of his 112 hits), and Arreaz drove him in with his 118th single of the year (he has 33 XBH’s).

 

Starter Eduardo Del Rosario gave that run back in the top of the second thanks to a solo home run, but he was impressive the rest of the way. He scattered six hits over six innings and earned a no-decision for his effort. He struck out six and lowered his ERA on the season to under four after peaking at 6.58 after a six-run outing on June 30^th.

 

Williams Ramirez pitched two perfect innings in relief, striking out three in the process.

 

In the bottom of the seventh, Manuel Guzman led off with a single and a wild pitch moved him into scoring position before Nelson Molina’s clutch two-out RBI single to put the Kernels out front.

 

Anthony McIver came on for the ninth, and matched Ramirez with a one-two-three inning of his own for his tenth save. He struck out one.

 

Arreaz was the only hitter with multiple hits as he went 2-3 with a walk and leads the Midwest League with a .349 average.

 

E-TWINS E-NOTES

Game 1: Elizabethton 0, Bristol 1

Box Score

 

Thanks to a rain out back on July 29^th, the E-Twins got to play a seven-inning double-header on Tuesday.

 

In the regularly scheduled game, they may have been happy it lasted only one hour and twenty-seven minutes given that they had to play a second game, but they won’t be proud of why that happened.

 

As a team they managed just two hits and were 0-2 with runners in scoring position. When they were given extra base runners by two errors on the Pirates, they were quickly erased by double-plays.

 

Bristol took the lead for good in the fourth inning against Elizabethton starter Domenick Carlini thanks to three singles. They didn’t manage much more than that as Carlini finished all six innings and allowed just the one run by scattering the other four hits and walking only one. He struck out five and falls to 1-6 on the year.

 

Game 2 (makeup of 7/29 postponement): Elizabethton 4, Bristol 2 (9 innings)

Box Score

 

The reason the E-Twins might have been happy was because game two went two extra innings instead of the scheduled seven (even given this, this game lasted just 2 hours and 19 minutes).

 

The pace in this one was largely due to nearly forty percent of the game's outs coming via strikeout. Bristol had ten as a team, with Elizabethton outpacing them with eleven.

 

The Twins took a 1-0 lead in the second inning thanks to Lewin Diaz’s ninth home run of the year. The Pirates tied it at one in the third thanks to a home run of their own off starter Clark Beeker.

 

He allowed only that run on three hits and a walk in five innings. He struck out six. Colton Davis pitched a scoreless sixth inning despite allowing three hits. His defense came through by cutting down a stolen base attempt and a runner at home for two of his three outs.

 

Elizabethton took the lead again in the sixth on an RBI ground ball from Alex Kirilloff, then gave it right back again in the seventh.

 

It was Patrick McGuff’s fault this time and he was charged with the blown save. But as happens sometimes, he came back out for a second inning and recorded three K’s to pick up the win thanks to a two-run ninth inning from his offense. A sac fly from Bryant Hayman and wild pitch led to those two runs.

 

Hector Lujan came on for his save opportunity, and went one-two-three to end the game.

 

Diaz was 2-3 with the home run, and Caleb Hamilton was the only other Twins batter with a hit. They scored four runs on three hits and four Bristol errors that contributed to the win.

 

GCL TWINS TAKES

GCL Orioles 2, GCL Twins 3

Box Score

 

In another close game in the system on the day, the GCL Twins scored early and late to pick up the victory.

 

Lean Marrero (2-4, 2 R’s, 2B), Justin Hazard (3-4, R, 2B, RBI), Jose Miranda (2-4, 2 RBI), and Akil Baddoo (2-4, 3B) each collected multiple hits to lead the offense. They scored two in the first and one in the seventh for just enough offense.

 

Starter Tyler Fox went the first five innings and did not factor into the decision. He allowed two runs (zero earned) on four hits and three walks while striking out three. Garrett Kelly pitched the next three scoreless innings, allowing one hit and one walk with two strikeouts. Zach Strecker picked up his fifth save with a perfect ninth, striking out two.

 

TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY

 

Pitcher of the Day – Jason Wheeler, Rochester Red Wings (W, 8.0 IP, 2 H’s, BB, 8 K’s)

Hitter of the Day – Kennys Vargas, Rochester Red Wings (2-4, 2 R’s, HR, BB, 3 RBI)

 

WEDNESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS

 

Rochester @ Buffalo (6:05PM CST) – LHP David Hurlut (0-1, 3.46 ERA)

Chattanooga @ Jacksonville (6:05PM CST) – RHP Kohl Stewart (7-6, 3.04 ERA)

Palm Beach @ Fort Myers (6:05PM CST) – RHP Fernando Romero (4-2, 2.11 ERA)

Quad Cities @ Cedar Rapids (6:35PM PM CST) – RHP Sean Poppen (0-0, 1.80 ERA)

Burlington @ Elizabethton (6:00PM CST) – TBD

GCL Twins @ GCL Orioles (11:00AM CST) – TBD

 

Please feel free to ask any questions and discuss Tuesday’s games.

 

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[mikelink45]

Still trying to figure out why Vargas was sent down.  Since his call up he has hit better than Sano, he has done all he could and deserved a nice long look.  Are we messing with the confidence of another young slugger?

[TNTwinsFan]

Oh by the way...Garver went 4-4...dude is hitting .385 (in just 39 ABs, so SSS). No love for hitter of the day?

[nytwinsfan]

 

Still trying to figure out why Vargas was sent down.  Since his call up he has hit better than Sano, he has done all he could and deserved a nice long look.  Are we messing with the confidence of another young slugger?

Gotta showcase Plouffe so we can get at least a bag of balls for him.

 

I really hope they were very clear with Vargas that it had nothing to do with his performance, and that it was all about the short-term roster and building value for trades.

 

 

Edited August 24, 2016 by nytwinsfan

[DJL44]

Vargas was sent down because he can't play the field and they have too many DH on the roster.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Still trying to figure out why Vargas was sent down.  Since his call up he has hit better than Sano, he has done all he could and deserved a nice long look.  Are we messing with the confidence of another young slugger?

 

Because it happened over 85 at bats. In 285 at bats in AAA his OPS was .788. You're talking the shortest of samples and we'd all be howling if the Twins made personnel decisions based on 85 at bat samples.

 

I also don't buy the confidence thing - the team told him it was due to roster crunch and he knows he'll be back up in a week. If a player's psyche can't handle that, then I don't think he was long for the majors anyways.

[Steve Lein]

 

Oh by the way...Garver went 4-4...dude is hitting .385 (in just 39 ABs, so SSS). No love for hitter of the day?

 

Not quite when Kennys had just as many total bases and his one swing was the sole reason they won from an offensive standpoint.

 

[Steve Lein]

Seth probably doesn't know this, and is why the headline was edited to be grammatically correct, but my twitter thing for Vargas Home runs is to tweet "Kennys Hit Ball Far". Doesn't have the same effect when proper language is used, haha!

[Shane Wahl]

 

Gotta showcase Plouffe so we can get at least a bag of balls for him.

 

I really hope they were very clear with Vargas that it had nothing to do with his performance, and that it was all about the short-term roster and building value for trades.

 

Yes, exactly. I really hope so.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Vargas was sent down because he can't play the field and they have too many DH on the roster.

Wrong, he was sent down because they have two 3B, and one of them needed to play DH.

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Seth probably doesn't know this, and is why the headline was edited to be grammatically correct, but my twitter thing for Vargas Home runs is to tweet "Kennys Hit Ball Far". Doesn't have the same effect when proper language is used, haha!

 

And it was like 1 a.m. when I had to publish the article, so... HA!

[Seth Stohs]

 

Vargas was sent down because he can't play the field and they have too many DH on the roster.

 

Exactly. They needed arms and did so at the expense of a hitter. I'm sure they had a nice message for Vargas. I'm sure he'll be up on September 1st, or 5th at the latest. 

[jimbo92107]

Jason Wheeler has earned a shot, dang it. 

[Kwak]

 

Wrong, he was sent down because they have two 3B, and one of them needed to play DH.

Wrong! They have ONE 3Bman--and he has been Banished to 1B so the others can humiliate themselves in the field. Though one is kissing his elbow while screaming "OOwiee!!".

[Deduno Abides]

Question: for 2017, would you rather have Wheeler at $500K or Santiago at $5M plus? It sure seems like something clicked for Wheeler after he went back to AA last year.

[Mr. Brooks]

Question: for 2017, would you rather have Wheeler at $500K or Santiago at $5M plus? It sure seems like something clicked for Wheeler after he went back to AA last year.

I'd rather have Santiago if we also get a new coaching staff that isn't obsessed with pitching to contact.

[Deduno Abides]

I'd rather have Santiago if we also get a new coaching staff that isn't obsessed with pitching to contact.

Fair enough answer, but it's not so clear that Santiago will be improved simply because of a more conducive pitching coach, although he has definitely been worse this year since joining the Twins, even though they're trying to reduce his walk rate. For example, even when pitching well, he needs stellar outfielders.

[Mr. Brooks]

Fair enough answer, but it's not so clear that Santiago will be improved simply because of a more conducive pitching coach, although he has definitely been worse this year since joining the Twins, even though they're trying to reduce his walk rate. For example, even when pitching well, he needs stellar outfielders.

Effectively wild has worked for him his entire career.

He doesn't need to improve, he just needs to keep doing what he was doing his entire career before we got our hands on him, and he's a serviceable 4th or 5th starter.

[Deduno Abides]

Effectively wild has worked for him his entire career.

He doesn't need to improve, he just needs to keep doing what he was doing his entire career before we got our hands on him, and he's a serviceable 4th or 5th starter.

Depends on how you define "worked." Per Fangraphs, he has had only one year when he was worth more than 1 WAR, which was 2013, when he had a 1.3 WAR and won 4 games. For $5M plus, which is likely to be his salary next year. I'd want more from a #4 or #5.

 

Edit: for comparison's sake, Fangraphs gives Mike Pelfrey 2.0 WAR in 2013 and 2015 (Santiago was 0.7 in both 2014 and 2015, and Pelfrey, as you could guess, was bad, -0.6, in 2014.) Nonetheless, for aggregate 2013-2015, Pelfrey has higher WAR than Santiago. Further, believe it or not, but Pelfrey, who has basically stunk all year, is higher in 2016, also.

Edited August 24, 2016 by Deduno Abides

[Mr. Brooks]

Depends on how you define "worked." Per Fangraphs, he has had only one year when he was worth more than 1 WAR, which was 2013, when he had a 1.3 WAR and won 4 games. For $5M plus, which is likely to be his salary next year. I'd want more from a #4 or #5.

 

Edit: for comparison's sake, Fangraphs gives Mike Pelfrey 2.0 WAR in 2013 and 2015 (Santiago was 0.7 in both 2014 and 2015, and Pelfrey, as you could guess, was bad, -0.6, in 2014.) Nonetheless, for aggregate 2013-2015, Pelfrey has higher WAR than Santiago. Further, believe it or not, but Pelfrey, who has basically stunk all year, is higher in 2016, also.

Fangraphs calculates WAR based on xFIP. Santiago has consistently outperformed his FIP.

He has had bWAR of 2.8, 1.8, 1.5, and was at 0.8 before coming here this year, which would have put him on pace for about 1.2 or so.

 

That's acceptable from your 5th starter.

[Deduno Abides]

Fangraphs calculates WAR based on xFIP. Santiago has consistently outperformed his FIP.

He has had bWAR of 2.8, 1.8, 1.5, and was at 0.8 before coming here this year, which would have put him on pace for about 1.2 or so.

That's acceptable from your 5th starter.

With the bWAR numbers (0.8, not 1.8, for 2014), it looks like 1.2 is his upside. Obviously, his downside is lower, especially if his results are more in line with his peripherals.

[Mr. Brooks]

With the bWAR numbers (0.8, not 1.8, for 2014), it looks like 1.2 is his upside. Obviously, his downside is lower, especially if his results are more in line with his peripherals.

No, 1.2 is not his upside. He's posted a 2.8 already in his career.

1.2 is probably his expected production, but certainly not his upside.

 

That is a thousand times better than his upside with the so called adjustments the Twins have made to him, which is bagging groceries at Costco.

[Deduno Abides]

No, 1.2 is not his upside. He's posted a 2.8 already in his career.

1.2 is probably his expected production, but certainly not his upside.

That is a thousand times better than his upside with the so called adjustments the Twins have made to him, which is bagging groceries at Costco.

And the team that had him then, under cost control and with an excellent pitching coach, said, "Let's sell him while we can!"

[Mr. Brooks]

And the team that had him then, under cost control and with an excellent pitching coach, said, "Let's sell him while we can!"

No, that's not what happened at all. The Angels, right or wrong, really wanted to gamble on Alex Meyer, and Santiago is the price they had to pay for it.

Unless I missed all the speculation surrounding him up to the deadline, I don't think they were actively shopping him.

 

I don't know why you think I'm making him out to be something I'm not. He was a fairly consistent 4th ( on a bad team) or 5th (on a decent team) starter.

 

That is nothing special, but still had value, unlike the post tinkering Santiago who has no business in a major league stadium.

[Darius]

Gotta showcase Plouffe so we can get at least a bag of balls for him.

 

I really hope they were very clear with Vargas that it had nothing to do with his performance, and that it was all about the short-term roster and building value for trades.

They aren't getting anything for Plouffe.

[Darius]

Vargas was sent down because he can't play the field and they have too many DH on the roster.

He can play first and DH.

 

It's because he's not making millions and had the option. It has nothing to do with him as a player. Right now, he's swinging a better than Plouffe and Sano....and almost everyone else on the team with the exception of Dozier and Polanco.

 

He should be getting at bats at the ML level. It's terrible that they are going to lose 100, and they're running guys like Plouffe out there, who have zero value to the team.

[Darius]

Because it happened over 85 at bats. In 285 at bats in AAA his OPS was .788. You're talking the shortest of samples and we'd all be howling if the Twins made personnel decisions based on 85 at bat samples.

 

I also don't buy the confidence thing - the team told him it was due to roster crunch and he knows he'll be back up in a week. If a player's psyche can't handle that, then I don't think he was long for the majors anyways.

This argument can work both ways. Plouffe is awful over a huge sample size, so he shouldn't play. Time to see what Vargas can do over a large(er) sample.

 

Also, the way Vargas is doing it appears to have a decent shot of being sustainable. He works to get good pitches to hit. If he doesn't get one, he's walking....unlike every other young player they've given long looks to (Rosario, Buxton, Sano...Kepler is the one exception).

 

Just to make sure I'm not misunderstanding....you're saying player X (Plouffe specifically...,who is playing first again tonight instead of Vargas) with awful large sample size > Vargas with very respectable small sample size? D'ohK.

[Deduno Abides]

No, that's not what happened at all. The Angels, right or wrong, really wanted to gamble on Alex Meyer, and Santiago is the price they had to pay for it.

Unless I missed all the speculation surrounding him up to the deadline, I don't think they were actively shopping him.

I don't know why you think I'm making him out to be something I'm not. He was a fairly consistent 4th ( on a bad team) or 5th (on a decent team) starter.

That is nothing special, but still had value, unlike the post tinkering Santiago who has no business in a major league stadium.

White Sox traded him after the bWAR 2.8, which you mentioned as his upside, but I consider a mirage. I would non-tender Santiago as not worth $5M plus and pitch Wheeler or someone else. As I said initially, your opinion is fair; I just disagree. Hope you can accept that.

[Mr. Brooks]

White Sox traded him after the bWAR 2.8, which you mentioned as his upside, but I consider a mirage. I would non-tender Santiago as not worth $5M plus and pitch Wheeler or someone else. As I said initially, your opinion is fair; I just disagree. Hope you can accept that.

The reason I would be open to keeping him with a new coaching staff is because he could be traded for decent return (something close to what Nunez got) if he pitches to his potential.

 

But if this staff stays, yeah I'd non tender him.

[ThejacKmp]

 

This argument can work both ways. Plouffe is awful over a huge sample size, so he shouldn't play. Time to see what Vargas can do over a large(er) sample.

Also, the way Vargas is doing it appears to have a decent shot of being sustainable. He works to get good pitches to hit. If he doesn't get one, he's walking....unlike every other young player they've given long looks to (Rosario, Buxton, Sano...Kepler is the one exception).

Just to make sure I'm not misunderstanding....you're saying player X (Plouffe specifically...,who is playing first again tonight instead of Vargas) with awful large sample size > Vargas with very respectable small sample size? D'ohK.

 

1.) Yeah I am saying that. Pay attention to context, it matters and invalidates the simplistic way you look at things. You're acting like Vargas and Plouffe are both 25 year old prospects. They're really not. Vargas is a young prospectish player and Plouffe is a 30 year old vet the Twins are shopping for a trade before the Aug 31 deadline. Of course Plouffe is going to play, you're hoping to unload him (the Braves just got something decent for Jeff Francouer so there's hope for trading Plouffe if the Twins eat some money and a team needs a RH bench bat). After September 1st, it’s a whole new discussion – Plouffe should play minimally and September call-ups like Vargas and Palka should get the PT. But before then, the Twins future is better served having Plouffe get hot with the stick than having Vargas get PT. That’s not really a question, that’s more of a fact.

2.) “Trevor Plouffe has been awful over a huge sample size”? Let’s not get too hyperbolic here. Trevor Plouffe has been an average third baseman for a half decade. He’s not a part of the Twins future but to claim he’s been awful is stretching it pretty far. Rondell White was awful. Juan Castro was awful. Trevor Plouffe has been a pretty decent player who is getting too expensive and too old to be part of future plans.

 

3.) You can dismiss small sample size but it's a very real thing. Kennys Vargas took a bunch of walks - in 100 plate appearances. Before that his walk rate was nothing special (9 walks in 184 PA last year). We all hope the trend continues but to say that Kennys Vargas is a whole new player who has figured it out is really premature. His minor league track record doesn’t point to a great walk rate. Guys change but we usually wait to see it for over a full season before we accept it’s there to stay.

 

4.) I know you’re stretching when you start positively comparing Vargas’ walking to Sano walking. You clearly aren’t paying attention if you think Sano doesn’t have a much nicer walk rate. Kennys Vargas walk rates:

 

2014: 5.1% in 234 PA
2015: 4.9% in 184 PA
2016: 16.5% in 103 PA

 

Miguel Sano:

2015: 15.8% in 335 PA
2016: 11.8% in 383 PA

 

Unlike Vargas, Sano also consistently showed the ability to draw walks in the minors. Miguel Sano has a proven MLB track record of an above average to great BB rate*. Vargas has done it for 103 PA after being dismal the two prior years (Eddie Rosario as a MLB player has a BB rate of 3.2% so Vargas was basically slightly better than Eddie Rosario). So hey, let’s hold off on crowning Kennys the Walk King and let’s pay some more attention to the numbers behind your “arguments”.

 

D'ohK.

 

* http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/rate-stats/