Article: Hard Truths

[DaveW]

Someone put Liriano and Anibal Sanchez into the same class just yesterday.

Above Sanchez actually.

[Oxtung]

I don't recall anybody claiming that Liriano was in the same class with the other deadline pitchers. What he did have on his resume were two dominant seasons over his 6+ year career. "Selling the dream" and giving hope at recapturing that magic was part of what Twins' management needed to put at the forefront of their marketing scheme.

You just showed why Liriano was so overvalued here. An inability to remember the whole past. Liriano had half of a dominant season, TJ surgery, bad year, good but not great year, followed by a further 2 bad years.

 

Several posters valued Liriano as a tier 2 FA right behind Hamels and Greinke.

[Willihammer]

This doesn't make any sense. The Twins talking about resigning Liriano doesn't drive demand. What drives demand is a product that is valued by several buyers. If other teams don't think Liriano is valuable no amount of posturing by the Twins is going to change that. Liriano's inconsistencies, better pitchers available and buyers only getting ~12 starts is what drove the asking price.

We knew Liriano wanted to test free agency. So, what harm is there in calling a meeting, lowballing him, having it rejected, and then letting Twitter pick up the fact that the Twins are pursuing an extension with him?

 

Instead, we get Jonathan Stark, saying the likelihood of Twins trading Liriano is 100%.

 

In other words, lowballers welcome.

[DaveW]

So, what harm is there in calling a meeting, lowballing him, having it rejected, and then letting Twitter pick up the fact that the Twins are pursuing an extension with him?

 

Is this a serious question?

[Rube]

I don't recall anybody claiming that Liriano was in the same class with the other deadline pitchers. What he did have on his resume were two dominant seasons over his 6+ year career. "Selling the dream" and giving hope at recapturing that magic was part of what Twins' management needed to put at the forefront of their marketing scheme.

"Selling the dream"? The Twins are trying to trade a player to a team that has their own scouts and evaluate players independently of what the Twins might "sell" them. There is not a lot they could have done to increase Liriano's perceived value.

[Willihammer]

The Brewers did it.

[Oxtung]

The Brewers did it.

With who?

[Dilligaf69]

Agree with everything you've said here, Nick.

 

I continue to be perplexed by the number of people who are so convinced that we could have gotten so much more for him. They seem to be valuing him based solely on his upside while ignoring his downside, but even the dumbest of MLB front offices is smart enough not to do that.

 

And when it comes to a guy at his age with his experience, you can't be talking about "potential" anymore. He is what he is. A guy who ranges from brilliant to brutal, both between and within starts.

 

I don't see why anyone would think that teams would be lining up to offer their best prospects for a 2-month rental of such a player. It defies logic.

 

Time will tell how this trade plays out. Maybe the Whities are right and they can teach Frankie some new tricks. Maybe he helps them and they even bring him back.

 

But maybe the Whities see bad Frankie, miss the postseason and he walks at the end of the year while one of these guys ends up helping the Twins, and the fans on the Southside start demanding to know what the hell their management was thinking when they made this deal.

 

We shall see.

 

I've become resigned to the fact that just as Liriano "is what he is" message boards are the same way...they are what they are and that is fans who wanna believe they know everything or that they would have done this or that. They treat sprots as a XBox game or fantasy league where you can do anything you want if you just punch in a cheat code. The fact is the Twins probably got just about what they shoud/could have expected for Cisco...who knows maybe their plan is to re-sign Frankie this winter...

[nicksaviking]

Wild speculation and given Ryan's statements, doesn't change the fact that he'd still probably go for higher upside guys in the low minors for the long-term health of the franchise.

 

We all know that Ryan is not averse to signing budget starters (gag).

I'd like to think he'd take higher upside guys no matter what the level, but then why are all the reports saying that he's looking for MLB ready starters in exchange for Morneau? Just about everything is pointing to him chosing pitchers ready in 2013 over upside.

[Nick Nelson]

I don't recall anybody claiming that Liriano was in the same class with the other deadline pitchers. What he did have on his resume were two dominant seasons over his 6+ year career. "Selling the dream" and giving hope at recapturing that magic was part of what Twins' management needed to put at the forefront of their marketing scheme.

I think you have a misguided idea of how MLB trade discussions work. "Selling the dream"? "Marketing scheme"? What are you even talking about?

 

GMs have staffs filled with personnel who give them player assessments and help them make decisions. They don't rely on the words of the guy they're negotiating with or media posturing.

[Willihammer]

The rental they traded for a club's number one prospect and two pitchers of Hernandez's quality, if not better.

 

How much marginal value over 12 starts does Greinke provide to Liriano? I'll put the over under at one, with a distinct possibility Liriano has a better final 2 months then Greinke outright.

 

The Brewers frisked the Angels by posturing as pursuers and offered Greinke just below market value. The Twins did the exact opposite - excluded themselves from the pool of Liriano pursuers, softened the buyer market, and got a bag of balls for a guy who will probably be only marginally less valuable than Greinke or Sanchez over the next 12 starts.

[Thrylos]

You can sit there and cast blame on Ryan or you can come to terms with the truth of the situation.

Alright. Tell me who is lying:

 

a. Terry Ryan when he says that he is looking for a top prospect no matter his readiness and getting a young MLB-starter over a top prospect would be a mistake

or

b. Ken Rosenthal when he says that the Twins are asking for this for Morneau

 

because there is a conflict here...

[DaveW]

With who?

I assume he is talking about Zack Greinke.

 

And yes obviously Greinke=Liriano. The situations were basically mirror images of themselves

Also the package the Brewers got for Grienke wasn't exactly awe inspiring anyways.

[DaveW]

The rental they traded for a club's number one prospect and two pitchers of Hernandez's quality, if not better.

 

How much marginal value over 12 starts does Greinke provide to Liriano? I'll put the over under at one, with a distinct possibility Liriano has a better final 2 months then Greinke outright.

 

The Brewers frisked the Angels by posturing as pursuers and offered Greinke just below market value. The Twins did the exact opposite - excluded themselves from the pool of Liriano pursuers, softened the buyer market, and got a bag of balls for a guy who will probably be only marginally less valuable than Greinke or Sanchez over the next 12 starts.

You have to be trolling at this point, you can't seriously think any of this garbage is true.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Alright. Tell me who is lying:

 

a. Terry Ryan when he says that he is looking for a top prospect no matter his readiness and getting a young MLB-starter over a top prospect would be a mistake

or

b. Ken Rosenthal when he says that the Twins are asking for this for Morneau

 

because there is a conflict here...

There actually isn't a conflict. JR starts with a high upside, close to majors guy. He then moves down from that point.

 

If you want to sell something for a dollar, you don't start negotiations at one dollar.

[Thrylos]

There actually isn't a conflict. JR starts with a high upside, close to majors guy. He then moves down from that point.

 

If you want to sell something for a dollar, you don't start negotiations at one dollar.

but, according to Ryan, an MLB-ready starter is less than a top prospect at A level. If you want to sell something for a dollar, you don't start negotiations at 75 cents, right?

[TheLeviathan]

Alright. Tell me who is lying:

 

a. Terry Ryan when he says that he is looking for a top prospect no matter his readiness and getting a young MLB-starter over a top prospect would be a mistake

or

b. Ken Rosenthal when he says that the Twins are asking for this for Morneau

 

because there is a conflict here...

This conflict doesn't imply anyone is lying. It could be Ryan is telling the truth and Rosenthal is misinformed. Your argument is pretty bizarre.

[Brock Beauchamp]

but, according to Ryan, an MLB-ready starter is less than a top prospect at A level. If you want to sell something for a dollar, you don't start negotiations at 75 cents, right?

 

To quote Ryan:

 

Speaking only generally Thursday, GM Terry Ryan said, "When you're out there looking around, I think it's important you're always looking for the high-ceiling guy, whether he's major league-ready or whether he's in A-ball." To focus solely on the 2013 rotation "would be a terrible mistake," Ryan said. Ryan said the best target might be a Class A pitcher, who's further from the majors. "You can go get a marginal Triple-A guy who might be here next year," he said. "Are you going to be satisfied passing up a high-ceiling guy? I wouldn't be, but everybody has their own philosophy on that."

 

Those statements are not at odds with one another. You try for a high upside guy. The closer that guy is to the majors, the better. If you can't get a MLB-ready guy, you delve into the lower minors.

[one_eyed_jack]

I don't get this argument that the Twins somehow should have been able to bluff and BS somebody into giving us more for Liriano.

 

This isn't like poker where your opponent can't see your randomly drawn cards.

 

It's big league baseball, where what you have is on full display and has a track record, and you have sophisticated opponents who employ all kinds of people to analyze it.

 

Car salesman may be able to pressure naive customers into overpaying by falsely claiming demand for their merchanside and over-emphasizing its strengths while minimizing or concealing its flaws.

 

But the notion that such techniques could successfully be used in MLB trades is frankly ludicrous.

[Willihammer]

No one claimed Liriano was a consistently great pitcher like Greinke or Hamels. He is still, overall, an above average pitcher, and lefthanded, and comparable in objective value (WAR) to Sanchez (Liriano has actually been more valuable since 2006).

 

The haul is disproportional, and it signals that Jr. mishandled the situation. The difference with Milwaukee, is that the Brewers were not selling Greinke so much as trying to re-sign him. With Florida, they had, and are having a firesale. The Twins are putting Span, Willingham, Morneau on ebay with an unrealistically high minimum researve. But Liriano they seemingly dumped on the curb and slapped a cardboard "4 sale" sign on him.

 

This from the team whose biggest clearest weakness is starting pitching.

 

To negotiate effectively you have to be willing to walk away, and instead Jr's FO did everything to indicate that the Twins were not going into August with Liriano on the staff.

[Kobs]

Car salesman may be able to pressure naive customers into overpaying by falsely claiming demand for their merchanside and over-emphasizing its strengths while minimizing or concealing its flaws.

 

But the notion that such techniques could successfully be used in MLB trades is frankly ludicrous.

Works for Drew Rosenhaus and Scott Boras in this business all the time.

 

The problem here is, I think the Twins did get the players they asked for. They are exactly what you'd expect this franchise to covet.

[jimbo92107]

Significantly higher. DeDuno didn't come close to cracking a top 40 list for the Twins this year I believe and he is 29 years old.

Reason I'm asking is that this whole system of rating prospects puzzles me. The best pitchers the Twins have right now are all guys that were not rated as top prospects. In fact, the only thing they have in common is that they all had to fight their way through perceived deficiencies. Diamond and De Vries had to learn to pitch without anything dominant, while Deduno had to figure out how to avoid walking himself into a hole. If Hernandez is rated so much higher than Deduno, who is pitching quite well, then maybe the near future is not quite so bleak for the Twins as some imagine.

 

It's nice to have an ace, but the Twins seem to get by pretty well with adequate arms. Just don't expect much playoff action.

 

Like many, I'll be watching Tuesday's game to see what secret sauce the White Sox pitching coach has been feeding Francisco Liriano. If it works, more power to them.

[flpmagikat]

Works for Drew Rosenhaus and Scott Boras in this business all the time.

 

The problem here is, I think the Twins did get the players they asked for. They are exactly what you'd expect this franchise to covet.

+1. Maybe that was the best available package, maybe Ryan isn't lying when he said,

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson Right. I don't know who Stark was quoting in that ESPN article because it's not attributed, but Ryan was quoted directly (and extensively) as saying that focusing on guys who could help next year would be a "terrible mistake." Here's the money quote:

 

"You can go get a marginal Triple-A guy who might be here next year," he said. "Are you going to be satisfied passing up a high-ceiling guy? I wouldn't be, but everybody has their own philosophy on that."

But that's kinda exactly what he traded for, and while no realistic person expected getting a top prospect back, getting two guys who are "Major league ready", in the same way Butera and Manship are Major league ready, seems like a poor way to play that hand. And for anyone to say there isn't any art or tact involved in business, ha, well that is just foolish.

 

It's annoying seeing people that unrealistically expected a great return for a questionable good, but for all the folks to be defending the Twins FO as either seemingly being forced to trade Liriano for garbage or that was the only way to handle the situation, or that it somehow doesn't reflect poorly on them is inane. These guys put together the teams that have made baseball unwatchable(and getting worse) over the last few years. They aren't doing their jobs well. Hold them accountable.

[flpmagikat]

Sorry for the formatting there, first post.

[hoffy]

I read comparisons of Escobar to Omar Vizquel defensively, it was by Sox fans so take it for what it's worth, but if he can learn to keep the ball on the ground and slap it to the opposite field he could be a valuable SS. The Twins are extremely lacking in the minors of good defensive middle infielders and the scouts haven't shown much ability to find them. For that reason the value of a player like that to the Twins organization is probably higher than to a team that has a track record of finding and developing them. As far as Hernandez goes he's probably the best left handed starter in the higher levels of the minors for the Twins, as sadly as that sounds. Ryan certainly didn't fleece the Sox on this trade but he seems to be trying to address two glaring holes in our farm system. Hopefully any more trades between now and the deadline will bring in some high upside starting pitchers.

[Nick Nelson]

It's annoying seeing people that unrealistically expected a great return for a questionable good, but for all the folks to be defending the Twins FO as either seemingly being forced to trade Liriano for garbage or that was the only way to handle the situation, or that it somehow doesn't reflect poorly on them is inane. These guys put together the teams that have made baseball unwatchable(and getting worse) over the last few years. They aren't doing their jobs well. Hold them accountable.

Debating whether or not they should have traded Liriano is fair. Given what they received, I honestly would have probably preferred to just hold him and make the qualifying offer during the offseason. I think it's a risk a team like the Twins should be able to take.

 

This article was more geared toward the complaints about what the Twins got back relative to what they could have gotten back. My guess is that Ryan's choices came down to uninspiring & flawed younger prospects or low-ceiling, MLB-ready older prospects. In that situation, he opted for the guys who might be able to cheaply fill some holes in the near future.

[Oxtung]

The rental they traded for a club's number one prospect and two pitchers of Hernandez's quality, if not better.

 

How much marginal value over 12 starts does Greinke provide to Liriano? I'll put the over under at one, with a distinct possibility Liriano has a better final 2 months then Greinke outright.

 

The Brewers frisked the Angels by posturing as pursuers and offered Greinke just below market value. The Twins did the exact opposite - excluded themselves from the pool of Liriano pursuers, softened the buyer market, and got a bag of balls for a guy who will probably be only marginally less valuable than Greinke or Sanchez over the next 12 starts.

The Brewers didn't get the package they did because they were hoping to resign Greinke. The Brewers got their "Haul" because once Hamels re-signed Greinke was perceived as THE BEST PITCHER AVAILABLE. Liriano isn't even in the same discussion and that was proven out by what the Twins got in return.

[flpmagikat]

Debating whether or not they should have traded Liriano is fair. Given what they received, I honestly would have probably preferred to just hold him and make the qualifying offer during the offseason. I think it's a risk a team like the Twins should be able to take.

 

This article was more geared toward the complaints about what the Twins got back relative to what they could have gotten back. My guess is that Ryan's choices came down to uninspiring & flawed younger prospects or low-ceiling, MLB-ready older prospects. In that situation, he opted for the guys who might be able to cheaply fill some holes in the near future.

Right, I don't necessarily disagree with your initial article, its more the discussion which came about, and I agree with klobs snark. Ha so at least I'm registered now and not just lurking.

 

Anyway I agree that given what they received, it would've made more sense to just keep him and offer him the $12whatever mil if he held up. The players they got back might fill a role, but they seem like guys who can be acquired without giving anything up but money, let alone the best pitcher on your staff(and yes, thats just sad for many reasons, and being the most valuable SP for the Twins doesn't mean other teams value you the same) It is beginning to feel to me like, well what many more cynical than myself have been worrying/whining about. That the Twins ownership/FO just isn't going to spend the money they are shedding. Which kinda makes sense given that they need to rebuild and Im not a believer in the "just sign a rotation" strangeness.

 

But yeah, whatever. Seems like another poorly handled situation by the same guys that people have had similar gripes with in the past. Instead of valuing their own guy, and saying, "make me an offer i can't refuse, and we'll see", it seems like they just said, "make me an offer, we don't want this guy either, and so we'll take it".

[Willihammer]

The Brewers didn't get the package they did because they were hoping to resign Greinke. The Brewers got their "Haul" because once Hamels re-signed Greinke was perceived as THE BEST PITCHER AVAILABLE. Liriano isn't even in the same discussion and that was proven out by what the Twins got in return.

See intermediate comments. the assertion is not that Greinke=Liriano. If anything, Liriano ~=~ Sanchez (who caught the Tigers No. 2 overall prospect - a much better farm than CWS too).

 

It is the disproportion raising flags.

 

Even the Astros go the Pirates 8th best prospect (better farm than CWS) for a 33 y/o who's career WAR compares closely to Liriano's.

[Willihammer]

oops wrong thread