Article: Hard Truths

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?856-Hard-Truths

[Top Gun]

The hard truth is that he is a knuckle head, run him out of town!

[tobynotjason]

So GUESSING that a better offer won't materialize after a guy whose stuff per pitch f/x is unequivocally, demonstrably, objectively TOTALLY DIFFERENT than it was in 2011 and early 2012 (and actually even better than 2010) makes another start is OK, because, y'know, "he didn't expect better[offers] to come by Tuesday".

 

Just: no. The F.O. is toast. At least Liriano, of whom I'm a much bigger fan at this point than the Twins Org., writ large, will get a chance to work with a real pitching coach.

[Tuba]

I remember when he was put in the bullpen a few months ago and everyone here was saddened because we all knew frankie would work it out. Absolutely no one called for him to be released or anything like that. We all stood by him because we believed in him.

 

So to lose him for two mediocre at best players is truly heartbreaking for all of us that had faith in Liriano through thick and thin. Because absolutely none of us called for him to be demoted, even at 0-5 with a 9.45 era. We all knew he had it in him.

 

So long Francisco Liriano y Casillas, I shall shed tears for thee

[Guest USAFChief]

This trade will not be viewed favorably in the future. A team this desparate for starting pitching should not be so cavalier about dumping the best arm in it's system.

[one_eyed_jack]

Agree with everything you've said here, Nick.

 

I continue to be perplexed by the number of people who are so convinced that we could have gotten so much more for him. They seem to be valuing him based solely on his upside while ignoring his downside, but even the dumbest of MLB front offices is smart enough not to do that.

 

And when it comes to a guy at his age with his experience, you can't be talking about "potential" anymore. He is what he is. A guy who ranges from brilliant to brutal, both between and within starts.

 

I don't see why anyone would think that teams would be lining up to offer their best prospects for a 2-month rental of such a player. It defies logic.

 

Time will tell how this trade plays out. Maybe the Whities are right and they can teach Frankie some new tricks. Maybe he helps them and they even bring him back.

 

But maybe the Whities see bad Frankie, miss the postseason and he walks at the end of the year while one of these guys ends up helping the Twins, and the fans on the Southside start demanding to know what the hell their management was thinking when they made this deal.

 

We shall see.

[spideyo]

Truth is too, that we have about as good a chance re-signing him in the offseason as we would if we hadn't traded him. If he manages to stay in "Ace" mode the rest of the season, he is not gonna just resign with the Sox, he's gonna wanna test the waters, same as he would if he was here.

 

We COULD make a run at him, and then the net result would be we only lose him for two months for two young guys. If he signs a big deal elsewhere, well, he probably would have gotten that deal leaving the Twins too, which means we would have lost him for nothing.

 

We all know how much we love when our top guys leave in FA and we get jack squat in return

[IdahoPilgrim]

The find I find amazing is the short attention span of most fans, even knowledgeable fans. Last May, this is exactly what fans were clamoring for - a run of good starts so the Twins could get something, ANYTHING, for him before he imploded again. Nobody was talking about offering him an extension or calling him the best arm in the system (which he is on his good days). There were even some who said we should just DFA him and be done with it. I'm OK with this trade - I would have liked more, but it wasn't to be.

 

I do think, given their contracts, that more needs to be expected for Span, Willingham or Morneau - they won't go for this level of return. If that's all that Ryan is offered for one of them, just say no and keep them.

[JB_Iowa]

The question that nags at me isn't about what the Twins got from him in the trade -- it's about what the Twins got from him while he was with the team.

 

Did they get the best from him? Are they getting the best from the other players they have?

 

I guess we'll see what Frankie does with the Sox.

[Mike Sixel]

So it proves that if you want to get good players in trades, you need to trade good players, and also not wait until they are only 3 month rentals. The question is, has Ryan come to the same conclusion?

[Winston Smith]

Unless you are a fan that thinks a couple more wins we'll be back in the race, there is little reason to be upset. If you are one of those fans you need help! We got something for him rather than see him leave after the season and get nothing. It is not in Ryan's dna to spend big money on free agents so thinking Liriano would sign a long term deal to stay is silly. Now could he come back when he finds no market for his good, bad and sometimes ugly pitching, sure but why would we want that. We have a bad team, it has been a bad team for over a year and thinking that a bad team has a lot of great players worth a small fortune doesn't make sense. Trade anything worth talent in return, every player on this team can be replaced and lets rebuild a team not for competeing in the central but a team worth watching come playoff time. Of course do it on the cheap!

[minn55441]

So it proves that if you want to get good players in trades, you need to trade good players, and also not wait until they are only 3 month rentals. The question is, has Ryan come to the same conclusion?

Another nice recap Nick.

 

Mike has summed it up correctly. If you want good players you need to offer good players. This is what the market brought for Frankie.

 

I'm sure we will all be watching Liriano for the rest of the season and somehow try and draw conclusions from his performances into evaluating this trade. If he does well, does that reflect badly on Rick Anderson and the Twins coaching staff and how they handled him? If he pitches poorly will that mean that TR played it well and at least got some thing for him? I have a feeling we will land somewhere in between. He will pitch great at times and implode during other outings, just like he did for us. That may be good enough for the Sox. It didn't work for us, we are at a point where we need consistent starts and at this point in his career, Liriano is anything but a consistent pitcher.

 

 

Good Luck to Frankie, I hope he finds that groove and fulfills his potential down the road, I just hope it isn't as White Sox.

[Willihammer]

Of course he would have preferred to pry away younger prospects with higher ceilings

Rywan said he wanted pitchers in the high minors who are "ready to go."

[DaveW]

This trade will not be viewed favorably in the future. A team this desparate for starting pitching should not be so cavalier about dumping the best arm in it's system.

Most "live" arm yes, best arm? Not so sure. Moving forward I'd say there is a at least a 50% chance that Hendriks, Diamond and Gibson all outpitch Liriano, and most importanly will cost millions of dollars cheaper.

 

I wanted Liriano to stick around as well, and maybe if he preforms "meh" for the White Sox (4.00-4.50 ERA) down the stretch perhaps we can get him back on a cheap 1 year or 2 year deal. But the Twins decided enough was enough at this point with Liriano and they made the move, sometimes you just gotta move on, just like the Delmon trade last year.

[DPJ]

Rywan said he wanted pitchers in the high minors who are "ready to go."

HUH? Where did you hear that? I heard Ryan say he wanted high ceiling, no matter how far away they were to the majors.

[Guest USAFChief]

The find I find amazing is the short attention span of most fans, even knowledgeable fans. Last May, this is exactly what fans were clamoring for - a run of good starts so the Twins could get something, ANYTHING, for him before he imploded again. Nobody was talking about offering him an extension or calling him the best arm in the system (which he is on his good days). There were even some who said we should just DFA him and be done with it. I'm OK with this trade - I would have liked more, but it wasn't to be.

 

I do think, given their contracts, that more needs to be expected for Span, Willingham or Morneau - they won't go for this level of return. If that's all that Ryan is offered for one of them, just say no and keep them.

For the record, i object to the term "nobody."

[DaveW]

For the record, i object to the term "nobody."

+1. I was with you the whole way, if anything I thought they should have tried to lock him up in the off-season.

[Willihammer]

HUH? Where did you hear that? I heard Ryan say he wanted high ceiling, no matter how far away they were to the majors.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8198815/latest-deadline-dealings-marlins-phillies-dodgers-more

[TheLeviathan]

What this deal indicates is that "nobody" in their right mind really can think Liriano is a "frontline" anything.

 

I have minimal hope for this deal panning out and I'm not a fan of the value they got, but what they got is exactly what one should expect for what Frankie ACTUALLY is. Not what we all fondly remember him to be.

 

It's funny to talk with Sox fans in my family, they almost all have the same answer to two questions: How do you feel about Frankie and how do you feel about what you gave up?

 

Answer: Meh. Couldn't agree more.

[jimbo92107]

I'm a little curious about Pedro Hernandez. Is he rated as high as Samuel Deduno?

[DaveW]

I'm a little curious about Pedro Hernandez. Is he rated as high as Samuel Deduno?

Significantly higher. DeDuno didn't come close to cracking a top 40 list for the Twins this year I believe and he is 29 years old.

[Jim Crikket]

Yeah, obviously I'm not surprised at the gnashing of teeth over this. I personally think Liriano's one bad game last week DID negatively affect the offers Ryan was getting and one good game Sunday wouldn't have helped. That implosion put to bed any misconception scouts might have had that Liriano was "fixed" during his exile to the bullpen. Same old Frankie... as likely to blow up as blow away hitters.

 

I get that so many fans tend to overvalue their favorite players, but what I don't understand is the argument that the Twins should have offered this guy $12+ mil for next year. Especially when those arguments come from people who also claim the Twins need to rebuild for 2014 and beyond.

 

Of course, I can't see the logic in risking the $12+ million on Liriano, regardless of whether you think 2013 is a wash or not. Talk about throwing money down a well.

[Willihammer]

I watched Hernandez's 7/18 start in Fenway. His "slider" is a glorified cutter with no depth. He struggles to get his changeup over for strikes, and his fastball at 88-91 (4 seam) is meatball for righthanders. Why the FO would trade for a fly ball lefthander when TF favors righthanders already, is curious to me. At least Liriano had a reasonable HR/FB rate and was lights out against lefthanders. Hernandez gave up a bushel of hits to lefthanders with his "slider" and was destroyed several times by righthanders including a gigantic Cody Ross HR that left Fenway.

 

Top it off, he kept his first pitch of the game, not first strikeout or out (ended up giving up a double to Ellsbury), suggesting a superstitious/crazy head.

[bird]

I was in the camp favoring offering Frankie a fair extension, even overpaying for a year at $12M or getting the draft pick if he wouldn't be reasonable about an extension. However, I'm not going to declare this move as a bad one. How can you predict that? In fact, it's just as reasonable to predict that Pedro Hernandez will have a more productive career going forward than Frankie. Over the years, my guess is that, when I've disagreed with a Terry Ryan move, he's been proven right 70% of the time. Geez, I sure hated giving up Bullock for that no-stuff stiff Diamond.

[Winston Smith]

Would Hernandez rate some where around what Duensing was rated when he was brought up? Sounds like the stuff is about the same.

Would another Duensing and Punto be that bad for a guy gone at the end of the season?

[bird]

Some cats have nine lives, but maybe Frankie's a cat with nine deaths, and nine dead cat bounces! His 15K performance was probably just one more of his patented dead cat bounces. So, now the Chisox will coach him up, proving to tobynot jason and the rest that Rick Anderson is a pathetic incompetent (Frankie was coached by someone else when he performed well you see). What are the chances Frankie puts a string of decent performances together for Chicago, and then comes apart atthe seams again say, just in time for a playoff start. Yeah, I wish we could feel better about this trade, but...

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

Again--why all the comments over this trade. Liriano was going at the end of the season for nothing. No way, TR would offer him a $12million one-year contract to get the draft pick. Not even CC or Verlander is worth $12million a year. We got two guys who most likely are not worth much--but that is more than we would have gotten at the end of the season.

 

Frankie has 10 starts (more or less) to demonstrate his value for next year. I doubt he will get an offer of $12million (total for 3 years) he is too up and down.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not even CC or Verlander is worth $12million a year.

Um, yes they are. A CC/Verlander/Hernandez/Dickey/Weaver rotation for $60m a year?

 

Yes, please.

[Willihammer]

Again--why all the comments over this trade. Liriano was going at the end of the season for nothing. No way, TR would offer him a $12million one-year contract to get the draft pick. Not even CC or Verlander is worth $12million a year. We got two guys who most likely are not worth much--but that is more than we would have gotten at the end of the season.

 

Frankie has 10 starts (more or less) to demonstrate his value for next year. I doubt he will get an offer of $12million (total for 3 years) he is too up and down.

There is no leak yet of what Jr. turned down from other orgs - we can presume, based on prior comments to the media, that Jr weeded out lower ball, higher ceiling prospects in favor of the "ready to go" route and thus traded for 2 players who were currently on a MLB roster. Certainly no other club offered him that.

 

We can't argue that other offers were "better" but we can bust him for the faulty approach which targets your typical low-budget patchwork of players that have failed for 21 years running.

[Brock Beauchamp]

we can presume, based on prior comments to the media, that Jr weeded out lower ball, higher ceiling prospects in favor of the "ready to go" route and thus traded for 2 players who were currently on a MLB roster.

Except for the part where Ryan said that he was targeting low ball, higher ceiling prospects during the deadline.