Article: Dozier's Not Jerking Around

[Cody Christie]

Baseball has a long season. Players show up in early spring and play well into the fall with few days off in-between. How many players can continue to be successful over the course of 162 games? This grueling nature of the game is one of the things that attracts fans of all ages.

 

Slumps are something players in baseball try to avoid. The best players can avoid prolonged slumps. Brian Dozier has been no stranger to slumps throughout his career. So what adjustments has Dozier made during this season's second half? Let's look back before we look forward.In recent years, the season's second half has not been kind to Brian Dozier. In 2014, Dozier hit 18 home runs in the first half and stole 16 bases. It looked like he could be on his way to a 30-30 season. Things slowed down in the second half as he was limited to five home runs and five steals. His OBP jumped up 12 points but his power numbers declined.

 

Dozier's 2015 second-half slump was even worse. He was selected to his first All-Star Game based on hitting 19 home runs with a .841 OPS in the first half. His batting average dropped almost 50 points in the second half and his OPS dipped to .639. His nine home runs were good but not nearly as good as his 19 first half long balls.

 

This season has taken on a very different trend for Mr. Dozier. He struggled out of the gate as he was hitting under .195 after the first month of the season with only three home runs. In fact, the second month of the season didn't go much better. On June 5, he was hitting .206/.299/.351 with six home runs and 10 doubles.

 

A walk near the end of May might have been the key to Dozier's turnaround. It also signals the first time in his career where his second half numbers are going to be much better than his first half totals. Dozier told the Pioneer Press, "The whole thing is staying behind the ball. Knock on wood, I don't feel like I'll fall into the habit of jerking it again. It just comes natural now."

 

Dozier has been on quite the tear. Since the June 5 date mentioned above, he has hit .310/.370/.660 with 22 home runs, five triples, and 18 doubles across 68 games. His 97 long balls also leads all MLB second baseman since 2013. While last season Dozier saw his second half OPS drop to .639, this year he has an eye-popping 1.048 second-half OPS. That total ranks him sixth in all of baseball and fourth in the American League.

 

Take a look at Dozier's hit chart from last year to this year. In 2015, it looks like he was definitely falling into his habit of jerking the ball. Almost all of his power and almost all of his hits were left of second base.

While this season hasn't been a complete shift away from pulling the ball, Dozier has started to use more of the field. He's finding more hits right of second base and he is even finding some power to the opposite field.

 

At 29 years old, Dozier might be finally be settling into a more veteran approach at the plate. Dozier's defense continues to be sub-par at second base but his offensive totals are more than making up for his defensive ineptitude. He's one of the team leaders on and off the field but is this new and improved version of Dozier going to last? Or will he fall back into his old habit of jerking the ball?

 

Only time will tell...

 

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[Riverbrian]

I reached the point of complete frustration with Dozier earlier this year. 

 

I didn't want to trade the guy but I certainly didn't want him playing everyday as long as he was trying to pull everything. 

 

Now... He's the hitter that I always imagined he could be and his adjustment came much faster than I would have thought possible. Its hard to stop pulling the ball. 

 

He's going the other way quite a bit now. Teams will not be able to shift on him like they did before. This will open up left field so he can turn on the inside pitch. 

 

He's finally a professional hitter... His average is going up and power is going up. I hope Dozier never forgets this and if he doesn't forget this... He will be one of the top 2B in the league. 

 

Dozier has finally become that example for the younger players. "Look I fixed it... You can to". 

 

When Buxton quits upper-cutting and trying to pull everything... He will have a similar transformation IMO. 

 

I'm hoping that Dozier can take his personal experience and share it. I'd like to keep him around and not trade him... Let's see if he can Lead!!!

 

 

[CampQ]

All of his triples are to the opposite field

[Halsey Hall]

It's a lot easier to get a triple to right/right center. 

[wsnydes]

I appreciate the adjustment he's made and it's great to see him succeed and improve.  I'm of the ilk that thinks the more he hits, the more I want to see him traded, but I hope he can be that veteran influence while he is still here...however long that may be.  

[DocBauer]

I've been impressed with the way Dozier has adjusted and grown as a hitter this season. I understand the idea of selling high and bringing in a quality pitcher via a grade of Dozier. But I really want him on this team to provide offense and leadership.

 

I really don't understand the argument that he'll be gone when the Twins are good again. He's still only 29, signed for 2 more years before FA, and there is always the option of re-signing him or extending him if it seems prudent.

 

I understand the need for better pitching. But this team is also getting really young really quick. I'd like, for right now, to keep Dozier for his bat and experience and shore up the bullpen while giving Berrios, May, Mejia, Duffy and soon Gonsalves their opportunities in the rotation.

[Doomtints]

Some hitters are pull hitters, some are opposite field hitters.  The biggest factors are timing and strength.

 

Do you really think that messing with Dozier's timing will help him?

[Thrylos]

 

I've been impressed with the way Dozier has adjusted and grown as a hitter this season. I understand the idea of selling high and bringing in a quality pitcher via a grade of Dozier. But I really want him on this team to provide offense and leadership.

 

Rewind 4 years.  Substitute "Dozier" with "Willingham"

Rewind 2 years.  Substitute "Dozier" with "Suzuki"

 

those sediments could have been valid with those two, but know we know better.

 

Lessons got to be learned.

 

Also, there is absolutely zero evidence that Dozier can provide "leadership" or "lead by example".  He did not do that the past 3 seasons, why would next season(s) be different?

 

Got.to.sell.high.

 

And selling high means to pain you a bit when you do it (like it is the situation here with Dozier,) but you do it for the long run.  

[ThejacKmp]

C'mon Cody, you're better than this. This article is based on a foundation of bogus narrative.

 

"In recent years, the season's second half has not been kind to Brian Dozier. In 2014, Dozier hit 18 home runs in the first half and stole 16 bases. It looked like he could be on his way to a 30-30 season. Things slowed down in the second half as he was limited to five home runs and five steals. His OBP jumped up 12 points but his power numbers declined."

 

I thought we were done with the tired "Dozier slumped in 2014" narrative. I guess not. His splits before and after the break in 2014:

 

AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS
.242/.340/.436/.776
.244/.352/.387/.739

 

There's a slight fall off in slugging but an increase in OBP. Overall this is not much of a drop off. The narrative is almost entirely driven by the differences in his home runs, which we focus on too much.  Dozier had 18 HR in the first half of 2014 vs. 5 HR in the second half but also had 16 doubles and no triples vs 17 doubles and one triple. As the first half has 100 more at bats than the second half, the real story is a little less pop with some home runs turning into doubles. This myth of Dozier falling apart in the second half of 2014 colors the way we look at Dozier as a player. He slumped late in 2015 but we certainly shouldn’t be building patterns out of one season and the mistaken impression of another season. And he played everyday through nagging injuries in 2015 - you could argue that the issue was the Twins not giving him a day off, not some failure to finish seasons.

 

"It also signals the first time in his career where his second half numbers are going to be much better than his first half totals."

 

Ummm, no. Categorically false. If you want another reason to disregard the "Dozier second half struggle" narrative, here are his first and second half splits in 2013, his first full season in the bigs:

 

AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS
.235/.310/.386/.696
.253/.313/.443/.757

 

That's pretty clearly a big improvement in the second half of 2013.

 

Overall, in Dozier's four full big league seasons he's had two seasons where he finished stronger (2013 and 2016), one season where he slumped into the end (2015) and one season where he was pretty consistent between first and second halves (2014).

 

This narrative is false and should not be perpetuated by intelligent-minded fans.

[Vanimal46]

 

I really don't understand the argument that he'll be gone when the Twins are good again. He's still only 29, signed for 2 more years before FA, and there is always the option of re-signing him or extending him if it seems prudent.

I understand the need for better pitching. But this team is also getting really young really quick. I'd like, for right now, to keep Dozier for his bat and experience and shore up the bullpen while giving Berrios, May, Mejia, Duffy and soon Gonsalves their opportunities in the rotation.

Do you believe the Twins are going to extend a 31 year old Dozier for $100 million when his contract expires? 

Do you also believe the Twins with their internal options can transform their rotation from the worst in the game to a competent, average rotation? I don't... Not without looking outside for help.

There's a lot of assumptions made on Gonsalves' part that he's only going to keep progressing without any regressing. Haven't we made that mistake 2 years in a row with all of the awesome RP prospects we've been waiting on? 

[Vanimal46]

 

Got.to.sell.high.

 

And selling high means to pain you a bit when you do it (like it is the situation here with Dozier,) but you do it for the long run.  

Agree 100%. I'm bought in on trading Dozier this winter to improve the pitching staff. It's the unpopular choice, but I don't see any other way to improve the rotation for 2017-2018. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Do you believe the Twins are going to extend a 31 year old Dozier for $100 million when his contract expires? 

Do you also believe the Twins with their internal options can transform their rotation from the worst in the game to a competent, average rotation? I don't... Not without looking outside for help.

There's a lot of assumptions made on Gonsalves' part that he's only going to keep progressing without any regressing. Haven't we made that mistake 2 years in a row with all of the awesome RP prospects we've been waiting on? 

 

I also think the real issue is what else the Twins will want to do in two years. Yeah, the Twins could probably spend $18 mill on Dozier the next few years. The team is relatively cheap and since the Twins aren't likely to pursue a top end pitcher or spend a ton on bullpen help, there isn't a lot of places to spend money. You could go after a SS but the internal candidates are only a few years away. And C seems unlikely since those contracts backfire so much. So that money could probably be spent.

 

But in the next 2-3 years the Twins are hopefully going to want to start locking up Kepler, Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Gonsalves and maybe Polanco, Rosario, Vargas, Garver etc. That's when you're going to want the Dozier money (along with the Mauer money). You've got to think ahead right now, extricate some value for Dozier and save the resources and PT for the next generation.

[Vanimal46]

 

I also think the real issue is what else the Twins will want to do in two years. Yeah, the Twins could probably spend $18 mill on Dozier the next few years. The team is relatively cheap and since the Twins aren't likely to pursue a top end pitcher or spend a ton on bullpen help, there isn't a lot of places to spend money. You could go after a SS but the internal candidates are only a few years away. And C seems unlikely since those contracts backfire so much. So that money could probably be spent.

 

But in the next 2-3 years the Twins are hopefully going to want to start locking up Kepler, Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Gonsalves and maybe Polanco, Rosario, Vargas, Garver etc. That's when you're going to want the Dozier money (along with the Mauer money). You've got to think ahead right now, extricate some value for Dozier and save the resources and PT for the next generation.

Bingo. I think I read Gleeman or another blogger somewhere that the Twins for 2017 can build their starting lineup for $35-40 million. That's pretty dang cheap, especially when Mauer's taking a huge chunk of that budget. If they wanted to overpay for 3-4 years of Ramos or Wieters right now, I think they could pull it off. 

In the near future though, I want there to be enough in the budget to give healthy extensions to Sano, Kepler, and hopefully Buxton/Berrios if/when they turn the corner. 

[jimmer]

 

 

 

But in the next 2-3 years the Twins are hopefully going to want to start locking up Kepler, Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Gonsalves and maybe Polanco, Rosario, Vargas, Garver etc. That's when you're going to want the Dozier money (along with the Mauer money). You've got to think ahead right now, extricate some value for Dozier and save the resources and PT for the next generation.

One can only hope a good chunk of those guys are actually worth locking up.

[stringer bell]

I am driving the Dozier bandwagon. I think he should have been team MVP each of the last three years. I also think his overall defense is average, despite subpar metrics. Having said all that, he isn't indispensable. If the Twins can get a big enough return, they should trade him.

[ThejacKmp]

 

One can only hope a good chunk of those guys are actually worth locking up.

 

I guess the counterpoint would be that if those guys aren't worth locking up, keeping Dozier isn't going to matter anyway. So no reason not to trade Dozier while he has value.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Bingo. I think I read Gleeman or another blogger somewhere that the Twins for 2017 can build their starting lineup for $35-40 million. That's pretty dang cheap, especially when Mauer's taking a huge chunk of that budget. If they wanted to overpay for 3-4 years of Ramos or Wieters right now, I think they could pull it off. 

In the near future though, I want there to be enough in the budget to give healthy extensions to Sano, Kepler, and hopefully Buxton/Berrios if/when they turn the corner. 

 

Yeah, I'm just not interested in Ramos/Wieters. So many free agent catching contracts get rough quickly. Ramos might be a better gamble but it's still a gamble. I like the JRM/Garver succession plan well enough and am more interested in using Ramos money to start signing Twins guys. Would love to go after Buxton now while the market is low. You wouldn't have to invest a crippling amount in it and the potential payoff is huge if he turns it around.

[Parker Hageman]

Most Pitches Pulled, Last 30 Days:

 

1. Carlos Santana: 64%

2. BRIAN DOZIER 62%

3. Danny Espinosa 60% (Career Avg 51%)

4. Edwin Encarnacion 58%

5. Gregory Polanco 57%

League Avg.............40%

 

Don't believe the hype. 

 

As he has said, they've worked on keeping his barrel in the zone longer which has resulted in better struck balls going the other way versus rolling over on them, but his bread and butter is being able to yank pitches into the seats. 

 

 

[Danchat]

 

Rewind 4 years.  Substitute "Dozier" with "Willingham"

Rewind 2 years.  Substitute "Dozier" with "Suzuki"

 

those sediments could have been valid with those two, but know we know better.

 

Lessons got to be learned.

 

Also, there is absolutely zero evidence that Dozier can provide "leadership" or "lead by example".  He did not do that the past 3 seasons, why would next season(s) be different?

 

Got.to.sell.high.

 

And selling high means to pain you a bit when you do it (like it is the situation here with Dozier,) but you do it for the long run.  

I don't agree with the comparison here. Willingham and Suzuki had career years in their 30s, while it seems clear to me that Dozier (29) is still in his prime. Dozier is prone to massive slumps, but he's not going to disappear as a hitter like Suzuki/Willingham did. 

 

But yes, if you're going to sell high, do it now. But I'm not going to be mad if they don't trade him. They have him under contract for 2 more years, so they could trade him in 2017 or even 2018.

[Willihammer]

Dozier has quietly chopped 4.4% off his K-rate since last season, while improving his walk rate a tad. I think as Parker says he is staying in the zone longer, and to my eye he has improved his coverage of the outer half with two strikes.

He's also hitting more fly balls, while popping up a lower % of those balls than ever.

He's an incredibly hard batter to get out these days.

[Mike Sixel]

I am now on the trade him side. Bad teams need to trade good players to get younger good players, imo. The Cubs are built on trades and great high picks. The twins seem unwilling to really rebuild.

[SwainZag]

 

I am now on the trade him side. Bad teams need to trade good players to get younger good players, imo. The Cubs are built on trades and great high picks. The twins seem unwilling to really rebuild.

 

That just sounds like a blanket statement.  Every player is a different situation whether it be contract wise, positional value, etc.

[Mike Sixel]

That just sounds like a blanket statement. Every player is a different situation whether it be contract wise, positional value, etc.

It is the process rebuilding teams follow. He is a free agent in two years, as stated above, if they are not using that money on Sano, Buxton, Berrios, or other young played, keeping him probably did not matter because they are likely bad. If you never trade your good players, you are closing down one way to get better.

[SwainZag]

 

It is the process rebuilding teams follow. He is a free agent in two years, as stated above, if they are not using that money on Sano, Buxton, Berrios, or other young played, keeping him probably did not matter because they are likely bad. If you never trade your good players, you are closing down one way to get better.

 

I am not against trading him, but if they do I sure hope they get a pretty nice package in return for him.

[Vanimal46]

 

I am not against trading him, but if they do I sure hope they get a pretty nice package in return for him.

After a career season I believe he will generate a nice return. At the very least someone who can be a difference maker in the rotation for 2017 and beyond. 

[stringer bell]

I have pondered publicly whether he might be another Dan Uggla (fell off the cliff in early 30s) or perhaps Jeff Kent (went from solid to near HOF in his 30s). Certainly it is most likely that he is somewhere in between, but if he keeps getting better ala Kent, then it would be smart to keep him, but if he turns into a pumpkin, it is probably best to sell high.

 

IMHO, there are indications both ways. Dozier's bread and butter is driving middle-in fastballs and if he can't turn on them, his whole makeup would have to change. However, this year BD has been able to hit the ball to center and right with more authority, thus getting more hits that way and keeping defenses somewhat honest. Without the data in front of me, he seems to be hitting more ball farther to left-center and straightaway center and hitting fewer 360 foot homers down the line. That bodes well for his future.

 

I think most hitters pull grounders and Dozier is no exception--I haven't seen him roll many through the vacant right side--but I've seen a pretty good increase in hard-hit balls to the gap and right field. He's made himself into a star and at 29, he doesn't seem to have reached his peak, so maybe a bit more like Kent than Uggla.

[Craig Arko]

 

At the very least someone who can be a difference maker in the rotation for 2017 and beyond. 

This would be the only acceptable return, for my Zwei Pfennige.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Can this team contend in 2017?  That's the question that has to be answered. If the answer is no (and I suspect they could be a pretender in 2017 if this second half turn around is to be believed), then I don't see a logical scenario where we keep BD short of an extension.  I like him, don't get me wrong, but with Polanco doing well right now and no real place to play (I'm not one to give up on Escobar just yet and with Gordon likely starting in AA next season, a replacement isn't that far away). 

 

Since pretender is the best I can see for the 2017 Twins, and Dozier is gone after the 2018 season, I say you trade him for a kings ransom. And by that I most definitely mean a highly thought of ML ready pitcher or catcher and some highly thought of, but less ready, prospects in the A+/AA range.  I'd argue that at least one should be a top 100 guy, and quite possibly more than one.

[Champuckett]

We're going to have to acquire an insanely aggressive GM to trade Dozier based on recent history.

 

They were unable (unwilling?) to trade Plouffe, a far lesser talent than Dozier, a non-all-star, and someone who was in a good spot in his contract to trade him away.  All of this, when we seemingly had too many options at 3B/1B, which mistakenly put Sano in a tough spot in right field.  There isn't nearly the same logjam problem at 2B, although Polanco is certainly making his case to start thinking there might be.

 

It's all going to depend on whether or not the Pohlads do what they need to do and get the right GM who is willing to make trades that may hurt the team in the short term but provide large upsides in the long term.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

We're going to have to acquire an insanely aggressive GM to trade Dozier based on recent history.

 

They were unable (unwilling?) to trade Plouffe, a far lesser talent than Dozier, a non-all-star, and someone who was in a good spot in his contract to trade him away.  All of this, when we seemingly had too many options at 3B/1B, which mistakenly put Sano in a tough spot in right field.  There isn't nearly the same logjam problem at 2B, although Polanco is certainly making his case to start thinking there might be.

 

It's all going to depend on whether or not the Pohlads do what they need to do and get the right GM who is willing to make trades that may hurt the team in the short term but provide large upsides in the long term.

Polanco is playing out of position because Dozier is blocking him. It would seem the perfect time to trade Dozier this off-season.