Article: Three-Bagger: Kennys, New Guys & What The Hector

[sorney]

I absolutely HATE playing the patience card....however, (and maybe I am totally beaten down and delusional), but this playing time crap doesn't bother right now.  Because I have this fantasy the Twins are cleaning house with a GM that totally overhauls the way they do business.  A couple more months, and this horrendous nightmare will be done!!

 

[Rosterman]

Vargas got caught in a numbers crunch. Arcia got caught in a numbers crunch. How many more players will be caught in this numbers crunch. Do the Twins know who they have, who they should be looking at, whom they should be trying to trade for...say, more future depth and numbers crunch then. 

 

At some point bad play plus losses means you go beyond Boshers and Santiago and Grossman and such and do give moe mileage to rookies, or even rookies further down the on ramp. What you have on the field now is not doing it!

[The Wise One]

 

Vargas got caught in a numbers crunch. Arcia got caught in a numbers crunch. How many more players will be caught in this numbers crunch. Do the Twins know who they have, who they should be looking at, whom they should be trying to trade for...say, more future depth and numbers crunch then. 

 

At some point bad play plus losses means you go beyond Boshers and Santiago and Grossman and such and do give moe mileage to rookies, or even rookies further down the on ramp. What you have on the field now is not doing it!

Arcia was cut by two teams. What romantic notions that somehow,  some way Arcia  will reinvent himself from a hitter that gets himself turned into an out by swinging at everything into a patient hitter is folly.  Using his name and Vargas in any context together as similar  is a gross disservice to Vargas. Vargas was  not let go so you can quit the sorry lament for Vargas

[Platoon]

I absolutely HATE playing the patience card....however, (and maybe I am totally beaten down and delusional), but this playing time crap doesn't bother right now.  Because I have this fantasy the Twins are cleaning house with a GM that totally overhauls the way they do business.  A couple more months, and this horrendous nightmare will be done!!

I always think that also. But there is a little nagging guy on my shoulder that keeps whispering in my ear. "

What if they get the wrong guy, what then". .

[ThejacKmp]

 

If that's a soft OPS, what do you call Plouffe's .680?

Also, who at this point is buying tickets to the Twins solely to go watch Joe Mauer? His parents?

There are reasons why he's not on the team, but neither of those are included.

He had an option, and Plouffe/Mauer make more money.

 

Tradeworthy! Plouffe should be playing til the end of the month to build his trade value (he's hitting at least so he's doing his side of the bargain) and then if the Twins can't unload him, he should play minimally in September.

 

Of course it's because he has an option. That's life when you're a guy on the fringe of the 25 man roster. Money is always going to matter at some point. Plouffe could have been designated for assignment but the Twins are rightly hoping someone will give them something at the deadline (Plouffe would be a decent right handed bench bat for a contender and since he can play 3B and 1B has a bit more versatility than most bench bats, especially important for an NL team). Even your biggest Joe Mauer hater doesn't really advocate releasing Joe at this point. So that left Vargas. It's 10 days, we should chill. He'll be back up September 1st and will likely play more in AAA in the meantime. I'm sure they told him its not based on performance so it can't hurt his confidence.

[ThejacKmp]

 

If that's a soft OPS, what do you call Plouffe's .680?

Also, who at this point is buying tickets to the Twins solely to go watch Joe Mauer? His parents?

There are reasons why he's not on the team, but neither of those are included.

He had an option, and Plouffe/Mauer make more money.

 

Tradeworthy! Plouffe should be playing til the end of the month to build his trade value (he's hitting at least so he's doing his side of the bargain) and then if the Twins can't unload him, he should play minimally in September.

 

Of course it's because he has an option. That's life when you're a guy on the fringe of the 25 man roster. Money is always going to matter at some point. Plouffe could have been designated for assignment but the Twins are rightly hoping someone will give them something at the deadline (Plouffe would be a decent right handed bench bat for a contender and since he can play 3B and 1B has a bit more versatility than most bench bats, especially important for an NL team). Even your biggest Joe Mauer hater doesn't really advocate releasing Joe at this point. So that left Vargas. It's 10 days, we should chill. He'll be back up September 1st and will likely play more in AAA in the meantime. I'm sure they told him its not based on performance so it can't hurt his confidence.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Tradeworthy! Plouffe should be playing til the end of the month to build his trade value (he's hitting at least so he's doing his side of the bargain) and then if the Twins can't unload him, he should play minimally in September.

 

Of course it's because he has an option. That's life when you're a guy on the fringe of the 25 man roster. Money is always going to matter at some point. Plouffe could have been designated for assignment but the Twins are rightly hoping someone will give them something at the deadline (Plouffe would be a decent right handed bench bat for a contender and since he can play 3B and 1B has a bit more versatility than most bench bats, especially important for an NL team). Even your biggest Joe Mauer hater doesn't really advocate releasing Joe at this point. So that left Vargas. It's 10 days, we should chill. He'll be back up September 1st and will likely play more in AAA in the meantime. I'm sure they told him its not based on performance so it can't hurt his confidence.

You seem to be ignoring that Ryan O'Rourke was also optionable, and you don't have to release Mauer to get more looks at Vargas.

 

In fact, since you say Vargas will be back on September 1st, apparently they will work him into the lineup somehow on that date?  Why not do that on August 20th instead?  Especially when Kepler and Mauer were both hampered by injury on August 20th.  Why wait?  Was a just-used Ryan O'Rourke more vital to our roster this past weekend?  Would it have been difficult to recall a pitcher similar to O'Rourke over the next 10 days if we needed one?  There is still an open 40-man spot waiting for minor-league-free-agent-to-be Wimmers, and Albers is eligible to be recalled again tomorrow if we become really desperate.

 

I get keeping Plouffe in the lineup to show he is healthy and to get his bat going, but his defensive position over the next couple weeks is pretty meaningless to his trade value.  Best case, he is getting traded just before the September roster expansion, so teams will have plenty of positional flexibility without needing Plouffe to provide it.  If he is traded, it will be for his bat and his years of 3B experience, not because he picked up a 1B mitt again this month.  Might as well send him to an outfield corner over Danny Santana or Robbie Grossman, and let Vargas stay in the lineup.  (Or send Escobar or Polanco to the outfield, if you want to keep their bats in the lineup and you foresee utility roles for them.)

Edited August 23, 2016 by spycake

[Mike Sixel]

Probably way late here, but before everyone goes bashing on Joe Mauer once again, we need to recognize that he currently has an OPS+ of 114 and has looked pretty good defensively at 1B this year. Absolutely no reason he should be benched

So, just bench the young guys you need to learn more about? So you can win, what, this year?

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

So, just bench the young guys you need to learn more about? So you can win, what, this year?

 

Is it really an either/or, though?

[Mike Sixel]

There are nine spots every day....so either they figure out how to rotate players, or they bench players. So far, they are benching players, so Plouffe and Mauer can play. For a terrible team, that seems like doing the opposite, imo.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

There are nine spots every day....so either they figure out how to rotate players, or they bench players. So far, they are benching players, so Plouffe and Mauer can play. For a terrible team, that seems like doing the opposite, imo.

 

The young guys on the team (Sano, Polanco, Kepler, Rosario) seem to be getting plenty of at-bats, so I assume the "benched" player is Vargas. It definitely sucks to lose him for a few weeks, but if Antony is shopping Plouffe to the contending teams right now, putting him in the lineup everyday makes sense. If he's not being shopped, then demoting Vargas obviously becomes much more difficult to defend.

[Jham]

 

So, just bench the young guys you need to learn more about? So you can win, what, this year?

I have to say, I hate the idea of auditioning guys at the MLB level.  What do we really expect to learn about a guy in a few September starts?  By call-up results, we should have a pretty strong core of Parmalee, Hermann, and Albers right now.  

Vargas is pretty close to being whatever he is at this point.  Plouffe has only a slight chance of being on the team for even one more season, but still probably has a better chance of contributing to the team's next 3-5 years than Vargas, Walker, or Palka who may well never stick in the League.  

The place to evaluate talent for an organization is the minor leagues.  Only fans and big league coaches/managers have to wait for call-ups.  The Twins' best prospects have had only marginal success, but somehow we expect marginal minor leaguers to become All-Star big leaguers.  

 

If you want to look at a couple months of sporadic play and at bats in order to plan your roster going forward, that's fine.  I'll take the scouting reports and years of minor league data, please and thank you.  
 

[Mike Sixel]

I don't agree. These coaches can gather lots of data about watching players....in practice, in the clubhouse, on the bench, on the field. I know hearing about a co worker is different than working with one.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If you want to look at a couple months of sporadic play and at bats in order to plan your roster going forward, that's fine.  I'll take the scouting reports and years of minor league data, please and thank you.  

 

That's the point -- Vargas shouldn't be getting sporadic play, he should be starting most games in MLB right now.  We shouldn't have waited until August to play Polanco.  Etc.

 

There are limits to minor league data and scouting reports, and questions that only regular MLB play can help answer.  Odds are Vargas doesn't stick in MLB regardless (like most prospects), but if the primary cost is spotting Plouffe or Mauer (or perhaps Escobar or Polanco) in the outfield during a lost season, it behooves the Twins to take the opportunity to find out, no?

 

What's the benefit of the alternative approach?  More PAs for Grossman and Santana?  Keeping Mauer happy?  (Although good management could get player buy-in.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The young guys on the team (Sano, Polanco, Kepler, Rosario) seem to be getting plenty of at-bats, so I assume the "benched" player is Vargas. It definitely sucks to lose him for a few weeks, but if Antony is shopping Plouffe to the contending teams right now, putting him in the lineup everyday makes sense. If he's not being shopped, then demoting Vargas obviously becomes much more difficult to defend.

Plouffe could be in the everyday lineup in place of Grossman or Santana, allowing Vargas to start.  Or Mauer could spot in place of Grossman/Santana, if you think Plouffe needs to demonstrate his health more defensively at 3B.  Heck, if we hadn't so badly bungled it earlier, I probably wouldn't be opposed to spotting Sano in the outfield either.  (Note all of these are spotting, not converting/moving.)  Plus a few extra road games off for Mauer.

 

If you're unable to move Plouffe, you will want to do this anyway on September 1st, no?  So what's the harm in starting it August 20, or better yet earlier?

[Jham]

 

That's the point -- Vargas shouldn't be getting sporadic play, he should be starting most games in MLB right now.  We shouldn't have waited until August to play Polanco.  Etc.

 

There are limits to minor league data and scouting reports, and questions that only regular MLB play can help answer.  Odds are Vargas doesn't stick in MLB regardless (like most prospects), but if the primary cost is spotting Plouffe or Mauer (or perhaps Escobar or Polanco) in the outfield during a lost season, it behooves the Twins to take the opportunity to find out, no?

 

What's the benefit of the alternative approach?  More PAs for Grossman and Santana?  Keeping Mauer happy?  (Although good management could get player buy-in.)

Well, if Vargas probably won't stick, who cares?  What will we possibly learn about Vargas that we don't already know?  And I like Varg.  I think his defense at first is underrated.  I think when he shortens his swing he's down right formidable, and the Twins major complaints have been work ethic, taking instruction, and other things that typically involve simple maturity.  I'd find a way to keep him.  The Twins have this way of refusing to get rid of former prospects, so I don't think you have to worry about him getting cut.  The alternative of getting more PA's for Grossman or Santana (as well as more MLB evaluation of O'Rourke) is a reasonable , yet less sexy alternative.  Santana was always a more well-thought-of prospect than Vargas.  Ditto Grossman.  Both have just as much of a chance to stick with the team going forward, if not more.  So I would argue that we're doing a lot of evaluating.  We sent down the guy with options so we could continue evaluating.  Sitting your vets for non-health AND non-performance reasons doesn't really benefit anyone.  It's true there's only so much you can learn from a minor league history.  But there's a fine line.  Vargas playing 5 days a week in AAA vs. Vargas playing 2 days week in the MLB...  I dunno.  It's a fine line.  The Twins decided they'd be better able to continue their evaluation if he got more regular time in AAA.  
 

Now, if you want to say you don't trust our minor league evaluations, and so you want to evaluate for yourself or allow our MLB staff to evaluate the stock, fine, but presumably the big league staff okay'd the demotion too.  Which means you don't trust our minor league scout or our major league staff, and so when you say "we" need to evaluate the player, you really mean...  who's left?  

 

All season I've said we have an organization-wide problem with prospect evaluation and to some extent valuation.  But with all-due respect, I still trust their evals and values more than Spycake's and even Jham's.  No offense.  Although the race is actually a lot closer than it ought to be.