Is Neil Allen the right man for the job?

[Mr. Brooks]

On Tuesday morning, Twins pitching coach Neil Allen made his weekly appearance on a local sports talk radio show.

He said a few things that made my ears perk up. I've been busy this week, and just now have had time to go back and double check what I heard, and to do some associated research. 

First, I'll say that there is no doubt that Neil Allen knows more about pitching than I'll ever know. That disclaimer out of the way though, I can't help but wonder if he is the right man for the job, based on the things he said on Tuesday not really jiving with reality. 

 

At the trade deadline, the Twins sent Ricky Nolasco and Alex Meyer to Los Angeles, in exchange for Hector Santiago. 

Santiago is a guy who has had some success in this league, and was pitching very well at the time of the trade. Feelings were mixed at the time of the trade, but mostly it was lauded as a good trade for Rob Antony. The feeling was that Santiago could be a potential short term fixture at the back end of the rotation. 

 

At the time of the trade, Santiago was having a very good run. Over his final 6 starts with LA, he had given up just 7 earned runs, and struck out 34 batters in 35.1 innings. He also had walked 21 batters, but that seems to be part of his recipe for success. 

From 2012 through 2015, he posted ERA's of 3.33, 3.56, 3.75, and 3.59, despite walking 236 batters through 527.1 innings. 

Now, we all know that approach doesn't sit with the way the Twins traditionally want their pitchers to pitch. But, if it's working, why fix it, right?

Not so fast, at least that's what I took from this statement from Allen on Tuesday:

 

"But in his defense, he's been working on an awful lot of stuff too since he's been here. Because he's said he got out of whack and out of sync and did some things out in Anaheim. And so he's been coming in here and working on some things too, and believe it or not, he's not happy with the way he's throwing the ball too, and we all know that and we all see that. But there's a lot of mechanical flaws that he's been working on that we do see getting better. His base on balls are down,"

 

Allen is correct that his walks are down. In fact they are way down, from 11.1% in LA, to 3.3% here. However, his strike outs are also way down, from 20.8% to 13.0%.

Whatever changes the Twins have made to Santiago, have cut down his K's nearly in half, and hitters are absolutely tee'ing off on his pitches. Opponents line drive % is up from 13.5% in LA, to an astonishingly 24.3% here, and opposing batters are hitting .364 off him since the trade.

 

From here, Allen starts to talk more specifically about Santiago's pitches.

 

"His location with his fastball, believe it or not, has been better. It's his off speed that has been kinda beating him up and he's been getting the ball up in the zone when he's trying to shut down big innings and it's cost him."

 

Fangraphs pitch data doesn't support this statement though.  In LA, his fastball was a positive 0.1 runs above average per 100 pitches, while since coming here its been worth a NEGATIVE 1.89 runs above average per 100.

Or, maybe his fastball location has been better, perhaps it's been too much better, as in right down the middle?

 

His fastball velocity is also down significantly since the trade, from 91.8 to 90.4. That could show that he's playing hurt, or it could support my theory. That being that they saw the walk rate throughout his career and told him he can't do that here, that he needs to start pitching to contact. Perhaps he's always been a bit effectively wild in his career, walking plenty, but stranding them by getting plenty of K's and producing weak contact. Perhaps he's found that the only way he can locate the fastball consistently over the plate, is by taking a little off the velocity, which has led to less strikeouts and guys making better contact with it. 

 

Aside from Ervin Santana, who probably needs a pitching coach the least of anyone on the team at this point in his career, has any starting pitcher for the Twins pitched up to his potential this season?

Berrios, Gibson, Duffey, Hughes, anyone? 

 

Now again, I'm far from a pitching coach. So, maybe i'm more on something, than on to something. That is entirely possible. 

Those who know more than me, feel free to chime in on the things involving more nuance than the numbers alone show, and why I might be wrong (or right). 

[HitInAPinch]

"First, I'll say that there is no doubt that Neil Allen knows more about pitching than I'll ever know."

 

You've said a mouthful, baby!    

 

I'm not sure what you're getting at here.  Walking 236 batters through 527.1 innings is a good thing?

Santiago's reduction in fastball speed and accuracy couldn't be due to the fact that he and Allen are working on his breaking stuff, therefore Santiago is using the fastball more?  Overexposure of a middling pitch?

 

You're using "perhaps" and "probably" a lot.   

 

I still think it was a good trade.  Nolasco is closer to "never was" than "serviceable"  in my book.  Really too bad about Meyer.  With the work that is ongoing with Berrios and Duffey, Santiago is another addition to the list of Twins that are still a work in progress.  At 28, you would have liked Santiago to be further along than what we've seen.  Many "works in progress" on this team now and in the near future.

Stay the course with Allen.

[nytwinsfan]

 

On Tuesday morning, Twins pitching coach Neil Allen made his weekly appearance on a local sports talk radio show.

He said a few things that made my ears perk up. I've been busy this week, and just now have had time to go back and double check what I heard, and to do some associated research. 

First, I'll say that there is no doubt that Neil Allen knows more about pitching than I'll ever know. That disclaimer out of the way though, I can't help but wonder if he is the right man for the job, based on the things he said on Tuesday not really jiving with reality. 

 

. . .

 

Aside from Ervin Santana, who probably needs a pitching coach the least of anyone on the team at this point in his career, has any starting pitcher for the Twins pitched up to his potential this season?

Berrios, Gibson, Duffey, Hughes, anyone? 

 

Now again, I'm far from a pitching coach. So, maybe i'm more on something, than on to something. That is entirely possible. 

Those who know more than me, feel free to chime in on the things involving more nuance than the numbers alone show, and why I might be wrong (or right). 

These are fair questions.

[goulik]

SSS still in play with Santiago. He was just uprooted and placed with a new team that isn't very good. He has a lot going on.

 

Anaheim (a better team) just told you they preferred Nolasco and Meyer over you. Not good for the old confidence. You must have to work on Something so you have that in your head before you go to the new pitching coach for some help.

 

Santiago you said is throwing more fastballs. Probably because he's been missing with the off speed stuff so his arm tires faster now and the velo drops. That is a reasonable and correctable outcome when he regains confidence in the off speed stuff.

 

I also wonder about Suzuki and what pitches are beng called. That's a topic in a different thread...

[ashbury]

I think a couple of years is enough time for a pitching coach to establish a record to judge him by. Allen's had some successes to point to: who expected Kintzler to be serviceable in closing out ninth innings? The veteran ESan has done well. Fernando Abad did well in his short time here, and Taylor Rogers has done well since coming up. There's a couple of other pitchers with so-so records in the bullpen, Tonkin and Pressly - Tonkin's perhaps achieved his ceiling, Pressly I still keep expecting more from. One might give Allen credit for getting another smoke-and-mirrors season out of Milone last year, but that magic apparently wore off. Blaine Boyer's 2015 probably also needs to be added to the list of successes.

 

And yet... to me this is no better than a so-so resume for the past two years. If I were in charge I would thank Allen for his service and offer to give good recommendations to his next prospective employer, and roll the dice with somebody else. Stu Cliburn from AAA, somebody from outside the organization (as Neil Allen himself once was) - I don't have preconceived notions. I just think coaches are relatively expendable in the cause of finding a stellar one, and Allen doesn't seem to be stellar.

[old nurse]

As a Twin

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4026&position=P&ss=2016-08-04&se=2016-08-20&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,FC,FT&season=all

 

Angels

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4026&position=P&ss=2016-05-04&se=2016-07-30&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,FC,FT&season=all

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

On to something.

 

Next question?

[Otto von Ballpark]

SSS still in play with Santiago. He was just uprooted and placed with a new team that isn't very good. He has a lot going on.

 

Anaheim (a better team) just told you they preferred Nolasco and Meyer over you. Not good for the old confidence. You must have to work on Something so you have that in your head before you go to the new pitching coach for some help.

 

Santiago you said is throwing more fastballs. Probably because he's been missing with the off speed stuff so his arm tires faster now and the velo drops. That is a reasonable and correctable outcome when he regains confidence in the off speed stuff.

 

I also wonder about Suzuki and what pitches are beng called. That's a topic in a different thread...

FYI, the Angels are only 2 games better than the Twins this year.

 

They were better on August 1st, but not a ton (6 games ahead of the Twins) and they were still in last place in their division at that time.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not sure a few snippets from an interview really say much about whether or not Allen is the right fit for the job.  not to mention that there's some obvious SSS caveats with anything covering how Allen is working with him.

[beckmt]

Very few pitching coaches seem to make a major difference, the difference is in talent(Ray Searage excepted).  Twins do not have a lot of talent and I do not know if Allan is making the best of it or not.  That will be the issue until the Twins have starting pitchers with stuff. 

Do not think you should fire Allan unless you decide to let the whole staff go(that may well have been the issue that got TR fired).  I would be in favor of that and have been for most of this year.  I just hope a few GM candidates tell Pohlad they will not take the job without total control. 

Allan has a very good minor league track record and Tampa Bay has suffered after losing most of their coaching staff to Chicago and Allan.  There may be something there.

[Mr. Brooks]

 

Santiago's reduction in fastball speed and accuracy couldn't be due to the fact that he and Allen are working on his breaking stuff, therefore Santiago is using the fastball more? Overexposure of a middling pitch?

 

 

 

Santiago is throwing his fastball significantly LESS since coming here, not more.

[Mike Sixel]

I have no idea.... Other than it is hard to look at this staff and point to much success. Maybe that is on the front office, and who the players are. Maybe it is on the coaching. Or maybe it is a total system failure. But right now? Can anyone say Allen is doing a good job?

[DJSim22]

Interesting points and data using Santiago.  Too small of a sample size to go off of though in my opinion. 

[jimbo92107]

"His fastball velocity is also down significantly since the trade, from 91.8 to 90.4."

 

You could practically stop right there with Santiago. The extra mile and half per hour may not seem like much, but the lack of it may indicate a pitcher that has either run out of gas or is pitching with an injury. 

 

One thing I have observed is that his "stuff" is not mlb caliber, not at this point. Not just velocity, but the rpms on his curve, and his command. To me that adds up to a physical problem. 

 

If Santiago is damaged goods, he might heal up in the off season, or he might be done as an effective starter. Kyle Gibson looked like that in his latest bad start, and somebody posted that he has numbness in his fingers. Nerve damage? 

 

Anyway, I'd run Santiago through a bunch of medical tests. I don't think he's fully healthy. 

[Thrylos]

 

Is Neil Allen the right man for the job?

 

Short answer:  No

 

Twins' pitching staff:

2016: 14/15 (in the AL) in WAR, 15/15 in ERA, 12/15 in FIP, 13/15 in K/9
2015: 8/15 in WAR, 6/15 in ERA, 7/15 in FIP, 15/15 in K/9

 

Results should matter.

 

Was middle of the pack in 2015, other than the strikeouts, and regressed major time in 2016.  Could or could not have to do with his relapse this season, but he has to go.

 

 

[Highabove]

La Velle E Neal reports

The Twins are trying to change Santiago's delivery to cut down on his huge walk rate. 

 

There, you have it.

[Mr. Brooks]

La Velle E Neal reports

The Twins are trying to change Santiago's delivery to cut down on his huge walk rate.

 

There, you have it.

A change in delivery could account for the lost MPH on the fastball.

[Deduno Abides]

La Velle E Neal reports

The Twins are trying to change Santiago's delivery to cut down on his huge walk rate. 

 

There, you have it.

Santiago just had the best month his career, which has been generally mediocre. Regression was likely to happen. Don't like the strategy of trying to change the guy most-way through the season, either, but his performance now is largely balancing his 6-0 performance July, which itself was partly based on luck, with 21 walks in 35.1 innings, among other things. Key factor in recent performance: he's just not that good.

 

Not a defense of Neal Allen, who hasn't demonstrated excellence.

[operation mindcrime]

No!

[LaBombo]

 

La Velle E Neal reports

The Twins are trying to change Santiago's delivery to cut down on his huge walk rate. 

 

There, you have it.

 

Well, we all know walks are evil, so getting rid of them is like cutting down on the mosquito population or curing the common cold. And in a season like this, there's little risk to the team by experimenting with individual players, either in terms of who to use, how to use them, or changing facets of their game.

 

On the other hand, the Twins had a borderline Cy Young candidate in Hughes, who altered his approach in an effort to remove the 'borderline' from his title, and instead removed the other half, replacing 'Cy Young' with '5th starter' and ruining his shoulder in the process.

 

Now the Twins are going to change the delivery of a recently acquired pitcher who would have led the Twins rotation in ERA and K's/9 if he had been a Twin the past three seasons.

 

So while it's a good time to experiment for the team, and pitchers are always in need of at least a little delivery maintenance and the occasional oil change anyway, I'm a bit wary of the Twins and Allen going under the hood of their best pitchers for major overhauls except as a last resort.

 

And as it regards Allen himself, the Santiago situation brings me to Ash's nicely summed up position, which is that Allen is neither a guy you need to replace or a guy you feel terribly reluctant to let go in an effort to try out someone new who could turn out to be the next Dave Duncan. It would be extremely interesting and perhaps instructive to ask the individual pitchers one on one how they feel about Allen.

 

Also, I wonder if maybe the Santiago experiment isn't possibly a sign that Allen feels a need to take a risk or two in order to impress so that he can bolster his odds of weathering the coming GM shakeup.

[Riverbrian]

I have a hard time blaming someone for the hand they were dealt. 

 

To be fair... I'll need to break it down

 

If you consider both 2015 and 2016... Twins pitchers have performed:

 

Above My Expectation:

 

Kintzler

Abad

Rogers

 

At My Expectation:

 

Santana

Pressly

Tonkin

Duffey (When you combine last year with this year)

 

Below My Expectation:

 

Everybody Else

 

 

When I look at it like this... I'd have to say that Allen got dealt a crappy hand and played it crappy. 

 

I'm leaning toward change for changes sake

[Otto von Ballpark]

Abad? The guy barely pitched for us, and his results were pretty much in line with the rest of his career (pretty steady the last few years except for a few extra HR allowed in 2015).

[Riverbrian]

 

Abad? The guy barely pitched for us, and his results were pretty much in line with the rest of his career (pretty steady the last few years except for a few extra HR allowed in 2015).

 

I was trying to be nice

[Deduno Abides]

When Allen was hired, I had understood he was to be judged primarily by what he did with Meyer, May, Berrios, Stewart and the glut of college relievers that were drafted, because of his track record of developing pitchers for the Rays. His grade with this group is, at best, either Incomplete or Needs Improvement.

 

I actually don't give him a ton of credit for Rogers, because analysts (not Twins analysts, of course) were saying for a long time that he was ready to be a good LOOGY. The facts that he remained a starter in he minors last year and was brought up this year only after the failure of others suggests that the team was not assessing him accurately, particularly in comparison to the pitchers who beat him out, and made the switch because of necessity instead of strategy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I was trying to be nice

Fair enough. Someone else mentioned him as a positive earlier too.

 

I guess in fairness to Neil Allen, you could put Pat Dean and a few others in the "at my expectations" category too...

[FormerMinnasotan]

I am more concerned Neil Allen can't develop prospects than coaching veteran pitchers like Santiago. Berrios isn't just struggling he looks bad all together and Tyler Duffey looks less and less like a quality starting pitcher. A quality pitching coach you'd think could be able to get better results from a prospect like Berrios. I mean it's not like Berrios is a typical mid to back end of the rotation prospect. Allen seems as inept as Rick Anderson in developing starting pitchers.

[glunn]

 

 

 

I'm leaning toward change for changes sake

Me too.

[Kwak]

​​Changing Santiago? This sounds like Pitch to Contact is still alive and strong with "The Twins Way".

 

​There are differences: Anaheim has players who can catch and throw and the atmospheric conditions at night (there) tend to be unfavorable for fly balls (they don't "carry" as well).

[TheLeviathan]

I really hope we see a lot of changes when the new GM takes over.  this one included.

[DocBauer]

I have a hard blaming someone for the hand they were dealt. 

 

To be fair... I'll need to break it down

 

If you consider both 2015 and 2016... Twins pitchers have performed:

 

Above My Expectation:

 

Kintzler

Abad

Rogers

 

At My Expectation:

 

Santana

Pressly

Tonkin

Duffey (When you combine last year with this year)

 

Below My Expectation:

 

Everybody Else

 

 

When I look at it like this... I'd have to say that Allen got dealt a crappy hand and played it crappy. 

 

I'm leaning toward change for changes sake

I also tend to agree withyour final sentiment. I'm pretty conservative by nature. In sports, there are times to blow things up and make changes, but generally, I've never believed in bouncing out coaches/managers and staff after a year or two. It takes time for any kind of turnaround and to implement a system. And to be fair, I'm not sure comparing last season and not quite a full season this year accurately judges Molitor or Allen, or any of the coaches for that matter. Some of the frustrating moves we've seen could very well be the result of Terry Ryan influence. Coincidence or not, since his removal, the team has performed better, won more, and more and more prospects have been seeino regular playing time.

 

But with the lack of proper planning the past few seasons, and a new GM coming on board, I just wonder if the entire structure of the Twins wouldn't be better off with a new manager and staff. Not because Molitor or Allen or anyone else is particularly bad...the have the players they've been dealt and the jury is probably still out...but with a fresh start at the top, maybe a fresh staff would work better.