Article: Examining Arbitration-Eligible Players

[Mike Sixel]

 

There are also people saying Plouffe should just be let go when he was worth over 6 WAR between 2014 and 2015.

 

I still think he wasn't traded because Ryan never tried to trade him.

 

I think Plouffe is different:

 

Mauer, Sano, Vargas, Park, Polanco, Dozier, Escobar, Plouffe.....even taking off Park...that's a lot of bodies.

 

If you keep Plouffe, what do you do with Sano?

[jimmer]

 

I think Plouffe is different:

 

Mauer, Sano, Vargas, Park, Polanco, Dozier, Escobar, Plouffe.....even taking off Park...that's a lot of bodies.

 

If you keep Plouffe, what do you do with Sano?

Been saying this for at least two years.  DH him. It's where he will end up.

 

In any event, I'm not pushing to keep Plouffe, but this idea that we should just let him go for nothing seems like an unfair view of what Plouffe worked his behind off to become.

Edited August 18, 2016 by jimmer

[Deduno Abides]

Context matters. Who else will go off and come on the 40-man? What is the free agency strategy? What is the payroll goal? What is the long-term roster construction?

 

 

Easy: bye to Milone (although he would actually be worth more if used in a smarter way, such as not going through the lineup a third time, which would be adequate for a #5); keep Pressly and Kintzler (his arb cost won't be too much, even if he wins).

 

 

A little harder: keep Gibson (his cost is becoming a little more questionable, but he'll be worth at least as much as Milone's carrying cost this year), keep Escobar (could be needed if Plouffe gone in 2018, definitely needed if Plouffe gone in 2017, could enable trade of Dozier in 2017 if reload desired); bye to Santiago (replacement level talent that should not be paid more than replacement level comp).

 

 

Hardest: keep Plouffe (he should have been traded last winter, for at least a Palka level talent, but we can't go back and get a redo. Now, he has limited trade value, but hopefully will (i) not get a big raise and (ii) revert to his higher value of 2014-15. Unless more spots are needed for the 40-man and/or payroll room is needed, he should be affordable and useful in 2017. Possible mid-year trade.)

[Mike Sixel]

 

Been saying this for at least two years.  DH him. It's where he will end up.

 

In any event, I'm not pushing to keep Plouffe, but this idea that we should just let him go for nothing seems like an unfair view of what Plouffe worked his behind off to become.

 

I would not be opposed to moving Sano to DH......but if you tender Plouffe, he's probably on the roster, meaning you probably lose Vargas, I'd guess. Not sure what either Plouffe or Vargas bring back in a trade....

[nater79a]

How quiet do the Twins keep things as far as progress of players in fall instructionals? Thinking in terms of Lewis Thorpe (assuming he's going to be there). Seems like you want other teams to think his arm keeps falling off and needs to be reattached, even though he may be winging it up there at about 93.

[kellyvance]

There are two ways of assessing value: value in a trade and value to the team.

 

Gibson has been one of our main starters for a couple years now and it is really weird to hear people talk about dumping him while keeping Santiago or Milone. Gibson is better than those guys and will be a great extension candidate, since he is still young and fairly cheap to keep.  Santiago is a guy that could be a #5, so we consider him. Milone can't break a pane of glass with his fastball, so he is expendable. I like Ian and Pressley for cheap bullpen arms. I see a rotation of Santana, Gibby, Duff, May and Berrios. Santiago in long relief.

 

I think there is a market for a healthy Plouffe. Plouffe has power and plays a good, if not great 3b.  Why not have Trevor in a swing role between 3b, 1b and DH? I know 10 million is a high price for a bench bat, but he is a bench bat with power at least. Vargas should be moved. He is too limited, but that was what they said about Ortiz. Sano is under motivated, if talented. Sano should have to win the job, not just be given it.  And Sano needs to show more discipline at the (dinner) plate. Escobar is the SS, despite Polanco being given a long audition. Polanco lacks a true SS arm.

 

So... I'd try to move Vargas and Santana. Danny needs a true shot at SS and he won't get it here. Besides we have other guys. Nobody mentioned Grossman, and I like him, but don't we have better guys?  I don't think we keep him if we keep Danny. 

[Mike Sixel]

What does Sano have to do at this point to earn a job? You know, besides be one of the better hitters in baseball?

[SarasotaBill]

Any 2017 roster decision must be based on 2018 and after.

 

Plouffe, his 307 OBP, and 10 mil contract - gone.

 

Milone - gone

 

Santiago - TBD

[sthpstm]

I agree with trying to extend Gibson while his value may be down.  How much more confident would he be and competent would he look with a good defense behind him all year.

[jimmer]

 

I agree with trying to extend Gibson while his value may be down.  How much more confident would he be and competent would he look with a good defense behind him all year.

Do we have awesome defenders coming?  Right now his FIP is 4.64, his worst in 3 seasons, so I don't know.  Not sure he can use defense as an excuse.

Edited August 18, 2016 by jimmer

[Mike Sixel]

 

Do we have awesome defenders coming?  Right now his FIP is 4.64, his worst in 3 seasons, so I don't know.  Not sure he can use defense as an excuse.

 

Well, the Twins have, um, uh, no, no they don't (well, Buxton, I guess, but he can't hit at all).

 

Twins are 2nd to last in DRS.....with Buxton playing quite a bit. 

[jimmer]

 

Well, the Twins have, um, uh, no, no they don't (well, Buxton, I guess, but he can't hit at all).

 

Twins are 2nd to last in DRS.....with Buxton playing quite a bit. 

And they were 22nd in DRS last year and last in 2014.

 

Buxton has 6 DRS in only 500 or so innings played in the field

Mauer has 4 DRS in hair over 700 innings played in the field.

Edited August 18, 2016 by jimmer

[Jham]

Plouffe needs to be either non tendered or extended for a discount. Maybe a player opt out if he has a big year. I don't see how he could get 10 mil in arb if he'd get less in FA. Look at the 3b signings last off season. Single years for under $4 mil was the going rate. I'd look for a team friendly deal with Santiago or Millone. Sign one, nt the other. Millone would be my choice, recent results not withstanding. He's very cheap for a starter, usable in relief, and miles better than pat dean despite what others think. It's not like you're out much if he's dfad again.

 

Gibson, Escobar, and presley are locks. I'm just not feeling the 40 man crunch as hard this season. I'd rather keep Palka,Vargas, dsan and abw3,but I'm not going to cry if we can't.

[Mike Sixel]

jham really making his / her point!

[Jham]

 

jham really making his / her point!

Apparently I feel very very very strongly about this...

[ashbury]

Right. 

 

Santiago is also more of an asset (at ~$8m) than Nolasco is at $12m. So they might be able to recoup value if they trade him too.

I have a hard time seeing him drawing much trade interest at $8M. But, one way to find out is to shop him hard in advance of arbitration, after the World Series. If you find an offer of a meaningful prospect, great, take it; the new team can do the arbitration dance.

 

If you don't, cut ties before arb. It's a tough business, but Hector will still land on his feet somewhere, just not at the price he no doubt is hoping for.

[sthpstm]

 

Do we have awesome defenders coming?  Right now his FIP is 4.64, his worst in 3 seasons, so I don't know.  Not sure he can use defense as an excuse.

But the point of the extension is to give the team an affordable year or two (or options) in his free agent years.  If the team can't have the defense improved to good/average by 2019/2020 (preferably 2018) then we have bigger problems.

[jimmer]

 

But the point of the extension is to give the team an affordable year or two (or options) in his free agent years.  If the team can't have the defense improved to good/average by 2019/2020 (preferably 2018) then we have bigger problems.

For the love of (insert Deity of Choice), don't buy out any of his free agent years.  I think I mentioned that earlier. 

 

Why would we want to buy out his age 32 and beyond years after seeing what kind of pitcher he is in supposedly his prime now?  Cause the first year of FA years, he'll be 32.

Edited August 18, 2016 by jimmer

[sthpstm]

 

For the love of (insert Deity of Choice), don't buy out any of his free agent years.  I think I mentioned that earlier. 

 

Why would we want to buy out his age 32 and beyond years after seeing what kind of pitcher he is in supposedly his prime now?  Cause the first year of FA years, he'll be 32.

If he is the type that will age well into his low 30's, will deliver good innings consistently, and the options/extra years are affordable, you can take that risk.  

You mentioning something earlier doesn't make it right. Others can disagree. 

[troyhobbs]

If Gibson is not in the rotation next year, I'm not sure we'll like who is there in his place. Sadly there aren't a lot of obvious better choices. I think they need him as a placeholder for next year at a minimum pending future circumstances....

[tobi0040]

If he is the type that will age well into his low 30's, will deliver good innings consistently, and the options/extra years are affordable, you can take that risk.  

You mentioning something earlier doesn't make it right. Others can disagree.

Our rotation has been loaded with veterans under contract that have no shot at being a #1 or #2. You find yourself at absolute best case about the 20th rotation in baseball when you do that. When guys struggle, get hurt, they underperform even the low ceiling they had before you fall off a cliff.

 

Gibson needs to be tendered because of the lack of options. But we should under no circumstance be even thinking about locking up another guy like this. Especially when he is controlled and should not get too expensive. Not to mention the higher upside guys about 6-12 months away from breaking through.

[jimmer]

If he is the type that will age well into his low 30's, will deliver good innings consistently, and the options/extra years are affordable, you can take that risk.

You mentioning something earlier doesn't make it right. Others can disagree.

he is in his prime years now and he blows. He is getting worse not better. Players dont normally get better in their early thirties which is where hed be in his FA eligible years. Id rather we shoot for better myself.

[jimmer]

But the point of the extension is to give the team an affordable year or two (or options) in his free agent years. If the team can't have the defense improved to good/average by 2019/2020 (preferably 2018) then we have bigger problems.

the point of showing his FIP is to show that even with a good defense, he would still be a bad starter. As far as knowing why one gives someone an extension, thats obvious. What apparently isnt obvious is the type of player that makes it a good move for the team to buy out some free agent years. Gibson is not one.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I have a hard time seeing him drawing much trade interest at $8M. But, one way to find out is to shop him hard in advance of arbitration, after the World Series. If you find an offer a meaningful prospect, great, take it; the new team can do the arbitration dance.

 

If you don't, cut ties before arb. It's a tough business, but Hector will still land on his feet somewhere, just not at the price he no doubt is hoping for.

 

Mike Pelfrey got a two-year/$16m guarantee. I think Santiago could get interest.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike Pelfrey got a two-year/$16m guarantee. I think Santiago could get interest.

 

You just made my eyes bleed....

[Otto von Ballpark]

Mike Pelfrey got a two-year/$16m guarantee. I think Santiago could get interest.

Interest, sure, but trading value? Not likely. For this level of pitcher, trades don't necessarily correlate well with FA contracts. Remember when Nolasco was still relatively cheap and effective for the Marlins in 2013? They didn't get anything from the Dodgers for him (3 suspects who were DFA'd with a year), yet a few months later Nolasco got 4/49 in FA and it wasn't considered out of line.

 

Also I suspect the Angels shopped Santiago a bit before they traded him to use. Nolasco + Meyer probably sets the bar for Santiago's near future trade value, no?

[adorduan]

 

What does Sano have to do at this point to earn a job? You know, besides be one of the better hitters in baseball?

Depends which job you are talking about. DH, nothing, 3B, he needs to field the position a hell of a lot better than he did this year.  But he won't have to earn the 3B job, they will hand it to him hope he goes from awful to below average in the field.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Depends which job you are talking about. DH, nothing, 3B, he needs to field the position a hell of a lot better than he did this year.  But he won't have to earn the 3B job, they will hand it to him hope he goes from awful to below average in the field.

 

so, he has to play 3B, to show he can play 3B? How many games would you want to see him play, before deciding if he should keep playing?

[jsteve96]

 

They need to sell high on Kintzler hopefully before the month ends.  They also need to get rid of Plouffe, hopefully before the month ends.  I do not see any takers on Santiago or Milone this month, so they need to go (one way or another - talking about replacing Nolasco with a worse pitcher...) before 2017 starts. 

 

I'd keep Gibson, Escobar, and Pressly and listen to offers for all 3 (and any other veteran.)

 

2017 has to be a real rebuild by a real Front Office...

I think you're forgetting Santiago had a career 3.6ish era before his 3 awful starts with the Twins. he'll come back strong here soon.

[Rosterman]

Seven guys, seven different stories.

 

Remember, arbitration rewards players whether they are good or bad. Again, we can go back to David Oritz. You can cut a guy 20% (unlikely) or go for the figure they present. Someone decides one figure or another. You can sign before arbitration, usually somewhere in the middle.

 

Trevor Plouffe. Even with THIS season, he is pretty much guaranteed $9-10 million easily - if he enters arbitration with the Twins or with what ever team he could go to in the stretch. Like Santiago, this becomes an issue of how much actually or how they play for you. No way should the Twins go to arbitration with Plouffe, who will then STILL be a free agent at season's end. Their alternatives - Sign him to a 2-3 year contract. But if they really wanted to keep him, they had that option this past winter. He would still cost around $30 million to do so, or if lucky, $25 million. BUT -- AND IT IS A BIG BUT -- if he is released, his dollar amount might fall to as low as, say, $5-6 million next season (unless someone DOES offer him multiple years) as he tries to rebuild a value. Plouffe is not without value. But should he be one of the top five payroll expenses and not have a position on the team.

 

Hector Santiago. Will he produce better than Nolasco has in the past for the Twins (and assuming he would also do better in the future). He would cost the Twins $7-8 million, depending on his final numbers, which will be skewed by his play for the Angels. If the Twins do let him walk, they essentially save $8 million on payroll to invest elsewhere. Letting a guy walk doesn't mean he will immediately re-sign with you for a lower amount. After his showings so far, you would let him walk and seek out a similar (and more trusting option) this winter.

 

Tom Milone. No one wanted him earlier for what his 2016 salary paid him. Seems like no one really wants him now. Any innings you keep giving him in 2016 could be given to someone else pitching equally as sullen. But at least the NEW guy will be around. Tommy Milone might be lucky and get a 40-man spot. But it might just get an invite with a major/minor split. He will pitch again in the majors. But not sure how often.

 

Brandon Kintzler. Go to arbitration. Reward him for some fine pitching this season. But no reason to extend him, unless he totally blows you away around June 15th next year and the young crop is still dusting their wings in AA and below. Same with Ryan Pressly. You've blown more money on names like Tim Stauffer with no return.

 

Eduarco Escobar. Once again, Eduardo enters arbitration NOT as a starter, so his price is less than if he was holding down the shortstop position. That is a blessing. At $3-4 million and showing his consistency, he is still worthwhile to keep as a reserve infielder. You might be able to flip him next summer for a similar return that you got for Nunez. He has proven he can adequately start at a variety of positions as well as be that emergency arm out of the bullpen.

 

Kyle Gibson. Again, he won't break the bank in his first year of arbitration. But no way does he get a multi-year contract. He just hasn't shown himself to be that good. (Think: Joe Mays, Nick Blackburn). If he is brilliant in 2017, you can still afford him in 2018. He might get expensive in 2019. You hope he has value at some point, but right now, you need his cost of offset a rotation that is still weak on experience.

 

Kurt Suzuki is a free agent. No one wants him on a competitive team. You can absorb his weaknesses on a non-competitive team, because ultimately a loss is a loss in the loss column, no matter how bad the pitches are called or how many runners run. I'm sure he will get a job. Pure backup. Can't wait to see the dollar figure. Hey, he didn't do bad for the Twins. The Twins maybe overpaid him, but they overpaid a bunch of guys...so our only "yell" at the front office is that they didn't spend their money wisely.

 

So, the Twins will free up one roster spot with Suzuki. They will lost three other players and THERE IS NO REASON FOR ANY OF THE THREE TO RETURN, unless you do get rid of names like Danny Santana, Robbie Grossman, Byung-Ho park, Tyler Duffy, Kyle Gibson. 

 

Where the whole mess gets complicated is WHO THE TWINS HAVE TO PROTECT. Do they protect guys who will come up in 2017. Or do they have to stash even more names to go with the likes of Walker, Rosario, Landa and Melotakis -- all who you can argue will make any impact in 2017, let alone start of the 25-man in 2018. Those are the tough calls with a system that does show promise, but still the guys aren't there yet (or the Twins are taking too much time developing them).