Article: Examining Arbitration-Eligible Players

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Earlier this summer, we examined the players that the organization would need to add or risk losing in December’s Rule 5 draft.

 

Before we can do that, though, the Twins will need to make room for the potential additions. Over the next two days, we’ll look at some possible ways to free up some spots.Tomorrow we’ll examine all the pre-arbitration players. Today, we’re going to focus only on the arbitration-eligible players. Unlike the pre-arbitration players, who all make the minimum or near the minimum, you have to weigh how much these players - who are eligible for arbitration and whose salaries are yet to be decided - are worth in regards to salary to the organization.

 

40-MAN SITUATION

 

The Twins currently have 38 players on their 40-man roster with two players on the 60-day disabled list that will need to be reinstated. Kurt Suzuki is the only pending free agent, so as the roster currently stands the Twins essentially go into the off-season with only one open roster spot.

 

5+ PLAYERS (will be free agents following the 2017 season)

 

Trevor Plouffe, 3B. Plouffe is entering his fourth (thanks to being a Super 2 player) and final year of arbitration and stands to make around $10 million. Plouffe is currently the 11th highest-paid third baseman ($7.25m) and there are eight third baseman currently under contract for $10m or more next season. With both Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco under control for around 5% each of what Plouffe would make, it would make no sense to tender Plouffe a contract (unless they’re positive they could trade him). The Twins should shop Plouffe aggressively as soon as the World Series concludes, knowing that he has to be removed from the roster one or the other before they have to add players to their roster.

 

Hector Santiago, LSP. The Twins worked out a deadline deal to acquire Santiago and included money so their financial impact - if they keep Santiago - would remain unchanged. Doing some simple subtraction indicates that the Twins expect Santiago to cost between $8-9m in his final year of arbitration. While Santiago should be tendered a contract, the Twins - with their new GM hopefully leading the charge - should go to the Winter Meetings knowing how bare the pitching market is and listen to any and all offers on Santiago. The likelihood, though, is that Santiago will be wearing a Twins uniform when next April rolls around.

 

Brandon Kintzler, RP. Kintzler will probably fail to make $1m this year as the team’s primary closer, but saves do matter when it comes to the arbitration process. Kintzler will be an interesting case, but he shouldn’t see his salary increase more than a couple million dollars. It would make sense to keep him around at that price. (I would be shopping him aggressively now through this winter, without a doubt.) Hopefully the new GM doesn’t buy into the old strategy of extending players like this, because Kintzler fits that mold perfectly. But at a couple million dollars, he’s a bargain.

 

4-5 PLAYERS (will be free agents after the 2018 season)

 

Tommy Milone, LSP. Now that Milone is hurt and can’t do anything for his already barren trade value, he’ll enter September as a member of the organization. And then he’ll enter the off-season on the roster. And then the Twins should non-tender him. He’d be in line to make around $7m (and that’s not far off from a back-end guy in the market), but he’s as fungible as they come.

 

Eduardo Escobar, SS. Escobar could get a jump to between $3-4m and the Twins will make him that guarantee. I’m not sure there would be a market for him that would return great value if the Twins called around looking to move him, but you don’t find guys that can play shortstop and have a decent bat just walking around the street. I’ll pencil him into the utility role, knowing he can be an everyday shortstop if needed.

 

3-4 PLAYERS (first-year arbitration-eligible)

 

Kyle Gibson, SP. There’s the really good Gibson and the really bad Gibson, but not really any in-between Gibson. Of course, the Kyle Gibson that pitched in Atlanta on Wednesday night was really good and the Twins don’t have an abundance of pitchers that can be really good. He’ll probably cost at least $4m in his first year or arbitration (and he’s a great extension candidate) but, without a question, the Twins need to commit to him.

 

Ryan Pressly, RP. Pressly has demonstrated some nasty stuff and has been both durable and reliable this season. He isn’t likely to make more than $1m this upcoming season, so there’s no reason to jettison him.

 

CONCLUSION

 

If this scenario played out, the Twins would only add two additional openings (Plouffe and Milone) to the roster.

 

What would you do with the arbitration-eligible players?

 

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[TNTwinsFan]

Bye to Plouffe, Santiago, and Milone. 3 spots. Next.

[beckmt]

Twins are at 37 or 38 spots I now believe.  Plouffe and Milone will not be tendered and then there are Wheeler and Dean, plus Suzuki.  Should not be much of an issue to get to low 30's.

[Danchat]

Plouffe and Milone need to go. I'm iffy on Santiago. I fully expect the Twins to tender him, but who knows who the new GM will be.

[jsteve96]

Plouffe and Milone non tendered for sure, I'd trade Kintzler. no way i would extend Gibson. do we really think he will be one of our 5 best in 2018 with Berrios Santana Gonsalves Mejia Jay.. maybe? dont guarantee him any money.  Boshers, O'Rourke, Albers and one of D Santana/Grossman traded off or Released. make room to for sure add: Jorge, Romero,Garver, Granite and maybe Thorpe

[Mr. Brooks]

Twins are at 37 or 38 spots I now believe. Plouffe and Milone will not be tendered and then there are Wheeler and Dean, plus Suzuki. Should not be much of an issue to get to low 30's.

They are at 38, but Perkins and Hughes go back on after the season, so they are effectively (for offseason purposes) at 40.

Wheeler is not currently on the 40 man roster.

[troyhobbs]

Plouffe and Milone non tendered for sure, I'd trade Kintzler. no way i would extend Gibson. do we really think he will be one of our 5 best in 2018 with Berrios Santana Gonsalves Mejia Jay.. maybe? dont guarantee him any money.  Boshers, O'Rourke, Albers and one of D Santana/Grossman traded off or Released. make room to for sure add: Jorge, Romero,Garver, Granite and maybe Thorpe

 

I'm not a huge Gibson fan but that's a lot of unproven talent to be clearing room for. Pretty sure they need Gibson until proven otherwise. Off that list I'd keep him, Presley, and probably Santiago, the rest can go. Put Polanco at SS full time until Dozier is gone and Veilma or Gordon or whoever pushes him over to 2B. Probably fine moving on from Escobar.

[ashbury]

Hector Santiago, LSP. The Twins worked out a deadline deal to acquire Santiago and included money so their financial impact - if they keep Santiago - would remain unchanged.

It's cost neutral, but I think this misrepresents what the trade accomplished. Ricky Nolasco would have cost the Twins the money in 2017 whether they released him or not. Santiago's money comes off the books if they non-tender him, and that money could be combined with other freed-up money for a nice pot to work with in the coming off-season, if they so choose.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd rather have my front 5 to be Santana, Gibson, May, Duffey, and Berrios than to give a spot to Santiago and send someone to the pen/minors. Not to mention, Hughes is still floating around, even if the odds of him returning to a starting role are miniscule.  In the minors you still have Mejia, Dean and (probably) Wheeler on the 40 man with Gonsalves (and possibly one or two more non 40 man guys) likely knocking on the door. I don't really see the point in holding on to Santiago unless someone gets hurt.

 

I'd trade him if possible (doubtful), but otherwise non-tender him. Same goes with Milone and Plouffe.

 

I'd be open to keeping Kintzler as he could likely be traded next deadline or kept if the team is doing well.  

 

Edit: forgot Mejia

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

It's cost neutral, but I think this misrepresents what the trade accomplished. Ricky Nolasco would have cost the Twins the money in 2017 whether they released him or not. Santiago's money comes off the books if they non-tender him, and that money could be combined with other freed-up money for a nice pot to work with in the coming off-season, if they so choose.

 

Right. 

 

Santiago is also more of an asset (at ~$8m) than Nolasco is at $12m. So they might be able to recoup value if they trade him too.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Plouffe and Milone non tendered for sure, I'd trade Kintzler. no way i would extend Gibson. do we really think he will be one of our 5 best in 2018 with Berrios Santana Gonsalves Mejia Jay.. maybe? dont guarantee him any money.  Boshers, O'Rourke, Albers and one of D Santana/Grossman traded off or Released. make room to for sure add: Jorge, Romero,Garver, Granite and maybe Thorpe

 

I'm not suggesting they give Gibson a four- or five-year deal. But giving him two (or three) years instead of going year-to-year could work out well for both parties. But there's nothing hurt by simply going one year either. 

[Blackjack]

Gibson isn't going anywhere. Good starting pitching is too hard to find and as he proved last night, he has the potential. I wouldn't hesitate to extend him for 3-4-5 years either. He may not be an ace but he can be a consistent starting pitcher for years to come.

[Thrylos]

They need to sell high on Kintzler hopefully before the month ends.  They also need to get rid of Plouffe, hopefully before the month ends.  I do not see any takers on Santiago or Milone this month, so they need to go (one way or another - talking about replacing Nolasco with a worse pitcher...) before 2017 starts. 

 

I'd keep Gibson, Escobar, and Pressly and listen to offers for all 3 (and any other veteran.)

 

2017 has to be a real rebuild by a real Front Office...

[Otto von Ballpark]

Right.

 

Santiago is also more of an asset (at ~$8m) than Nolasco is at $12m. So they might be able to recoup value if they trade him too.

But is he much more of an asset than Nolasco + $4 mil + a buy-low prospect with an option remaininf? Because that's what we traded for him (for 2017, anyway).

 

Personally, I don't see 5 starters better / more trustworthy than Santiago, so I bet they plan to keep him. Think of him as a Milone replacement, now that Milone has gotten a little too pricey for his contributions.

Edited August 18, 2016 by spycake

[FormerMinnasotan]

I'd get rid of Milone, Plouffe, and Santiago at season's end. And Gibson looks to be a decent trade piece at some time next season. With a pitcher like Gibson who could be slightly better, it's best to sell high as there is more talent that should work their way into the majors next year (Gonsalves, Mejia, Stewart).

[jimmer]

All MLB players have good games here and there.  Even bad defenders make an occasional great play.  Even horrible hitters can have a nice streak, etc.

 

Gibson has had 7 quality starts out of 17 games started this year.  He'll be 29 going into next season and we're talking about his potential still? Had these same conversation last year around this time when so many said he had turned corner.  He is what he is now. He's not anything close to a consistent MLB starter (or a good one, for that matter).  He's a borderline #4/#5 starting pitcher, at best.  He not the kind of guy you plan to keep past his arbitration years.

Edited August 18, 2016 by jimmer

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

The only way the Nolasco trade winds up being "great" is if Santiago is non-tendered. The beauty of the trade was it got rid of a mess that was a roadblock for a mess that could easily be let go before next season.

[Vanimal46]

 

All MLB players have good games here and there.  Even bad defenders make an occasional great play.  Even horrible hitters can have a nice streak, etc.

 

Gibson has had 7 quality starts out of 17 games started this year.  He'll be 29 going into next season and we're talking about his potential still? Had these same conversation last year around this time when so many said he had turned corner.  He is what he is now. He's not anything close to a consistent MLB starter (or a good one, for that matter).  He's a borderline #4/#5 starting pitcher, at best.  He not the kind of guy you plan to keep past his arbitration years.

I'm with you on this. It did look like Gibson was going to take some sort of turn last year, but alas, here we are. Still worth the arbitration price this offseason, but no longer in consideration for a multi-year extension. 

[Vanimal46]

Gibson, Pressly, and Escobar are the only ones I'd tender at the end of the season. No explanation needed for dumping Plouffe and Milone... Santiago is a toss-up. At this point I'd just take the money and run. 

[jimmer]

 

I'm with you on this. It did look like Gibson was going to take some sort of turn last year, but alas, here we are. Still worth the arbitration price this offseason, but no longer in consideration for a multi-year extension. 

I'm glad he had a good game, but some perspective. Last night was his 7th quality start in 17 attempts this year and it was against the team that has 23 less runs scored than the team that is 29th in scoring. 

 

In fact, he's only had 4 quality starts this year against top half offenses (Boston, Texas, Baltimore and LA Angels).

Edited August 18, 2016 by jimmer

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, it's his fault he started against the Braves and was good...

 

Look, there is no way you just cut Gibson at this point, as some are stating. That's insane. Give him a 1 year deal, and move on with your lives. I don't see the need for a multi year deal at this point, unless it is at a ridiculous discount.

 

Santiago? I'd non-tender him instantly. 

 

If I can sign Milone to a cheapish deal, I do that, tell him he's the long reliever, and he gets spot starts when others can't...If he wants more than $5MM, I let him walk.

 

Escobar? I'd probably keep him around at this point. He's not pricey at all.

Pressley? sure, why not at that price?

Kintzler? sure, if he'll sign for under $2MM, if he wants/gets around $5MM, too much for such an unproven player. I need my new GM and manager to be on the same page, if he falters, he's cut.

 

That leaves Plouffe......

 

1. Is Sano's arm really ok?

2. Can Polanco play 3B if/when needed?

3. If the answer to both is "yes", then I non-tender him. I like Plouffe. But, it is time to clear space for Sano to play 3B full time.

4. If I think Sano's arm issues are long term...and I might move him to 1B or DH, then I think I still maybe non-tender him, but it's more of a toss up to me.

 

[MileHighTwinsFan]

 

 

 

That leaves Plouffe......

 

1. Is Sano's arm really ok?

2. Can Polanco play 3B if/when needed?

3. If the answer to both is "yes", then I non-tender him. I like Plouffe. But, it is time to clear space for Sano to play 3B full time.

4. If I think Sano's arm issues are long term...and I might move him to 1B or DH, then I think I still maybe non-tender him, but it's more of a toss up to me.

 

I agree that the situation at third base is as uncertain as ever.  It completely relies on Sano getting into shape and doing the work to improve his fielding. We won't know the results until next spring, so there is some logic to tendering Plouffe or finding an affordable insurance policy.

 

I personally think Sano is destined to be a career DH and would not have a problem with the team making new future plans at third base.  

 

I don't think Polanco is the answer long term.  His arm is not strong enough and he doesn't profile as a third baseman offensively.  

 

 

[jimmer]

 

Gibson, Pressly, and Escobar are the only ones I'd tender at the end of the season. No explanation needed for dumping Plouffe and Milone... Santiago is a toss-up. At this point I'd just take the money and run. 

Plouffe has had an off year for sure (mostly due to injury I imagine) but this is a guy who was worth over 6 WAR combined between 2014 and 2015.  He may be the least wanted Twins on the team now that Nolasco is gone, but we could very well be giving away real value if we just let him walk.

[rghrbek]

 

Gibson isn't going anywhere. Good starting pitching is too hard to find and as he proved last night, he has the potential. I wouldn't hesitate to extend him for 3-4-5 years either. He may not be an ace but he can be a consistent starting pitcher for years to come.

Per Gleeman:

"Kyle Gibson's career ERA+ is 89, which is second-worst in Twins history for pitchers with 500 or more innings ahead of only Nick Blackburn."

 

There is no way I extend Gibson.  He has been a disappointment.  I would however consider a 1 year arb deal.  No harm in that.

 

Otherwise Ploufe, Santiago (he is what most analytics said he is, not very good or Nolasco light), Milone, all gone.   Kintzler is fools gold in my opinion, but the Twins will neither trade him or release him, so he gets a 2 year deal (although I would hope it just a one year deal).  I am hoping the new GM surprises me and does more than a few anti Twins types of moves.

[jimmer]

 

Ya, it's his fault he started against the Braves and was good...

 

I didn't say it was his fault, whatever that is supposed to mean.  I said one needs to look at who he was pitching against before letting this game get everyone ramped up again about Gibson's potential. 

 

I also never said don't offer him arbitration.  I wouldn't, however, buy out any free agent years.

Edited August 18, 2016 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

Plouffe has had an off year for sure (mostly due to injury I imagine) but this is a guy who was worth over 6 WAR combined between 2014 and 2015. He may be the least wanted Twins on the team now that Nolasco is gone, but we could very well be giving away real value if we just let him walk.

"Real value" except you can't trade him -- he is likely above market value in arbitration.

 

Best case is a non-tender and a re-sign at a lower amount, if you to get value from Plouffe in 2017.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I didn't say it was his fault, whatever that is supposed to mean.  I said one needs to look at who he was pitching against before letting this game get everyone ramped up again about Gibson's potential. 

 

I also never said don't offer him arbitration.  I wouldn't, however, buy out any free agent years.

 

there are people all over the site saying to literally just let Gibson walk. That, imo, is insane.

[Vanimal46]

 

Plouffe has had an off year for sure (mostly due to injury I imagine) but this is a guy who was worth over 6 WAR combined between 2014 and 2015.  He may be the least wanted Twins on the team now that Nolasco is gone, but we could very well be giving away real value if we just let him walk.

There is value for Plouffe. Just not $10 million value. If he's still looking for work in February/March at a David Freese like discount, I would consider bringing him back. 

[jimmer]

 

there are people all over the site saying to literally just let Gibson walk. That, imo, is insane.

There are also people saying Plouffe should just be let go when he was worth over 6 WAR between 2014 and 2015.

 

I still think he wasn't traded because Ryan never tried to trade him.

[jimmer]

 

Per Gleeman:

"Kyle Gibson's career ERA+ is 89, which is second-worst in Twins history for pitchers with 500 or more innings ahead of only Nick Blackburn."

 

There is no way I extend Gibson.  He has been a disappointment.  I would however consider a 1 year arb deal.  No harm in that.

 

 

Yup.  And, as a bonus, he was a 1st round pick.  another top notch selection.  11 first round picks from '06-11, not a good one in the bunch.

Edited August 18, 2016 by jimmer