Article: Pitching Pipeline: What's Next?

[nytwinsfan]

 

That "best player available" situation is just ridiculous.  Because in reality, is not the best player available, is who the Twins' braintrust thinks is the best player available, and more times than not, it really is not.

 

What makes you think the Twins' "braintrust" would be any better at selecting the best player available at a needed position than they are at selecting the best player available overall? I can think of one possible response, but I don't know if I buy it.

Edited August 19, 2016 by nytwinsfan

[tobi0040]

Okay, but let's talk comparatively. Let's start back in 2007. Ben Revere's selection was (and still often is) roundly criticized. He was the 28th selection. He was a "reach", and logic tells us that teams selecting directly after the Twins should have been able to take advantage of the fact that the idiots in Minnesota passed up a few stronger prospects.

 

The next 5 prospects taken in 2007 were Wendell Fairley, Andrew Brackman, Josh Smoker, Nick Noonan, and Jon Gilmore. So, not only did the Twins in retrospect appear to have selected wisely, but now let's look at what happened ahead of their opportunity to select a player. What you'll find is that 19 of the 27 players drafted ahead of Revere will end up having worse careers than Revere, or no career at all. In other words, looking at the 33 players selected, only 8 of them will have been better, and none of the eight were available for the Twins to draft.

 

I can expand on this for the next four years. Of the 25 players selected just after the Twin's selection (five each year), only 4 of the 25 project to accumulate more WAR than the player selected that year by the Twins. Those are Randal Grichuk and Michael Trout, both selected by the Angels in the #24 and #25 slots in Gibson's year, Brett Lawrie, selected 2 slots later than Hicks, and Christian Yelich, selected 2 slots after Wimmers. And importantly here, we're talking about the 5 Twins draft selections that people rant about the most among those of the last decade: Revere, Hicks, Gibson, Wimmers, and Michael. And contrary to the general impression and the common narrative, over half of the 110 players drafted ahead of the Twin's selections in this time period will likely have no better careers or will have worse careers than the Twin's selections. And again, we're dealing with two of the five probably having no career to speak of with Michael and Wimmers, and two others being rightfully viewed as having less than stellar careers in Revere and Hicks.

 

Only a half-dozen teams were NOT guilty of passing on Trout. So two dozen teams are complete idiots. When people say the Twins are crappy at drafting, I agree with them. When people say the Twis are EXCEPTIONALLY bad at it, I say prove it, apples to apples.

The issue with Revere is ceiling and asset allocation. He has a career 664 OPS and plays corner OF. He has 6 WAR in 7 seasons and now makes $7m in arbitration. That is the type of guy that is a dime a dozen in free agency. You have no business using a first round pick on him.

 

So while he may have more WAR than several guys, give me an upside starter that has less chance of making the big leagues, but if he does we have 7 years of control and the potential for the first few free agent years.

 

And I don't think this thought process has the benefit of hindsight at all. Ben Revere was never going to be the type of major league player the Twins could not afford or a star on a good team and that was known on draft day. To me that is the definition of a terrible pick.

[markos]

 

Lackey is a major FA signing that the Twins can't compete with? 2/32? We extended Hughes (and Nathan) for 3/42.

Also, Kyle Hendricks is the Cubs ERA+ leader this year, acquired in trade for Ryan Dempster (signed to a 4/52 contract, just like Nolasco-Santana-Hughes).

Another modest FA signing Jason Hammel is 3rd, behind Hendricks and Arrieta. Signed for 2/20 plus team option.

An under-rated aspect of the Cubs rebuild has been their savvy trading:

 

Miguel Montero

Anthony Rizzo

Dexter Fowler

Jake Arrieta

Pedro Strop

Kyle Hendricks

Addison Russell

Travis Wood

Carl Edwards

 

Hector Rondon was a Rule 5 pickup.

 

For the most part, they were able to hit on every one of their rebuilding trades. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

An under-rated aspect of the Cubs rebuild has been their savvy trading:

 

Miguel Montero

Anthony Rizzo

Dexter Fowler

Jake Arrieta

Pedro Strop

Kyle Hendricks

Addison Russell

Travis Wood

Carl Edwards

 

Hector Rondon was a Rule 5 pickup.

 

For the most part, they were able to hit on every one of their rebuilding trades. 

 

look at that list compared to what the Twins have traded for...

[markos]

 

look at that list compared to what the Twins have traded for...

Exactly. Though I also thought about the 1996-2007 Twins, a stretch where it seemed like Ryan won seemingly every trade. The 2006 team, arguably the pinnacle of that era, had the following players acquired via trade:

 

Punto

Bartlett

Castillo

Ford

Casilla

Santana (via Rule 5)

Liriano

Nathan

Bonser

Lohse

Silva

 

Adds up to 20-25 WAR that season.

 

Compare that to this season:

Nunez

Escobar

Murphy

May

Meyer

Jepsen

Milone

 

Probably negative WAR at this point?

[Major League Ready]

 

this whole meme that the Cubs are only good because they have money and can ignore pitching in the draft is old. really. old. the Twins could have taken the money spent on three FAs, and bought one great one.....would you rather have a great one, or Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco right now? It is a matter of resource allocation.

 

And, the Twins chose to choose HS guys....what if they had taken Trea Turner instead of Gordon? Same position, same draft, one is in the majors, one is not.

Mike,

I really liked Turner, partially just because I sway toward the great athletes.  I thought he was less risk too and of course he was going to get to the majors earlier.  I wanted them to take him but if we are fair, every mock draft had Gordon several spots ahead of Turner.

 

The other point you made was basically the very old argument …. Why don’t the Twins just sign an ace?  If you want to be correct here, the appropriate context is why is this type of signing almost non-existent among teams in the same revenue class or lower?  To put this particular act of omission on the Twins is absolute bulls%!%.   There has been two such signings by teams with equal or less revenue than the Twins in the past 20 years.  Hampton by Colorado which was around 2002 and Grienke last year.  It a BIG stretch to include the Grienke signing because they just signed a billion dollar TV contract.

 

Having said this, I think they actually good manage their payroll to make it feasible to sign an Ace or “near Ace” once Mauer is gone given the number of young players on the roster.   I think it is feasible but to call out the Twins for not doing it requires that one ignore how rare this is among small or mid-market teams.

Edited August 19, 2016 by Major Leauge Ready

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike,

I really liked Turner, partially just because I sway toward the great athletes.  I thought he was less risk too and of course he was going to get to the majors earlier.  I wanted them to take him but if we are fair, every mock draft had Gordon several spots ahead of Turner.

 

The other point you made was basically the very old argument …. Why don’t the Twins just sign an ace?  If you want to be correct here, the appropriate context is why is this type of signing almost non-existent among teams in the same revenue class or lower?  To put this particular act of omission on the Twins is absolute bulls%!%.   There has been two such signings by teams with equal or less revenue than the Twins in the past 20 years.  Hampton by Colorado which was around 2002 and Grienke last year.  It a BIG stretch to include the Grienke signing because they just signed a billion dollar TV contract.

 

Having said this, I think they actually good manage their payroll to make it feasible to sign an Ace or “near Ace” once Mauer is gone given the number of young players on the roster.   I think it is feasible but to call out the Twins for not doing it requires that one ignore how rare this is among small or mid-market teams.

 

I understand your statement, but it's still a choice all those markets are making. I'm asking.....has signing a bunch of mediocre / bad / ok pitchers worked for this team? Maybe it's not the process, maybe it is who they decide to sign that is the issue....maybe the next GM will pick among the mediocre better than Ryan did the last 5 years.

[Major League Ready]

 

I understand your statement, but it's still a choice all those markets are making. I'm asking.....has signing a bunch of mediocre / bad / ok pitchers worked for this team? Maybe it's not the process, maybe it is who they decide to sign that is the issue....maybe the next GM will pick among the mediocre better than Ryan did the last 5 years.

Has it worked out?  No, but when you say worked out, I think you mean did it make them competitors.  I don’t know the logic of those moves but anyone in that FO who believed Nolasco, Santana, and Hughes was going to makes them competitors should be tested for banned substances.   Personally, I think those moves were designed to not suck.   They had absolutely no pitching and those moves were designed to put a respectable product on the field during a rebuild regardless of if they admitted it was a rebuild.

 

Granted, had they gone out and signed Scherzer or Lester and they would have been more fun to watch 1 out of 5 games but they would have had just as bad a record and maybe worse.  They also would have had huge commitments to a SP well past their prime about the time this club will be ready to compete.    Scherzer is under contract through his age 36 season and Lester through his age 37 season.  Maybe they hold up but if they are likely very expensive boat anchors about the time this team will be ready to contend.  

It’s also very easy to say they should have gotten a top SP but who specifically?  In 2014 when they really needed to do something, the only Ace type free agent SPs was Tanaka.  Were we going to outbid the Yankees?  The year before in 2013 it was Grienke and Sanchez.  Grienke signed through his age 38 season.  Would that have been wise?  Were we going to outbid the Dodgers?  Sanchez had a career year in 2013, a very good year in 2014, was bad in 2015 and terrible in 2016.  Would that have “worked out”. 

 

It’s a lot easier to say they should have just signed a legit Ace than it is to actually get it done.  Who specifically should they have signed in 2013,14, or 15?  We can go all the way back to 2012.  CJ Wilson and Mark Buehrle were the top free agent SPs in 2012.  Would they have made this terrible team good?

[bird]

 

The issue with Revere is ceiling and asset allocation. He has a career 664 OPS and plays corner OF. He has 6 WAR in 7 seasons and now makes $7m in arbitration. That is the type of guy that is a dime a dozen in free agency. You have no business using a first round pick on him.

So while he may have more WAR than several guys, give me an upside starter that has less chance of making the big leagues, but if he does we have 7 years of control and the potential for the first few free agent years.

And I don't think this thought process has the benefit of hindsight at all. Ben Revere was never going to be the type of major league player the Twins could not afford or a star on a good team and that was known on draft day. To me that is the definition of a terrible pick.

 

 

So who should the Twins have picked in 2007? Why did so many teams fail to find that high upside starter you wanted the Twins to select in 2007? They sure as heck tried. In Revere's draft,, high school pitchers were taken three picks after Revere (Smoker), and again at  #42, #44, #47, #53, #58, #60, and #62, if I looked carefully and remembered right. Not a single one of those guys ever pitched an inning of MLB baseball, I'm fairly sure.

 

If the next five teams picked guys that gave them ZERO WAR, and no HS pitcher worked out over the next 30 picks or so, can you label the Revere pick as a bad one? And if so, doesn't this suggest that the Twins are in fact not EXCEPTIONALLY bad at this drafting thing? Would Berrios, Stewart, Gonsalves, Romero, Thorpe, and Jorge qualify as high upside starters? I get the theory and the appeal of a high school pitcher who might eventually take a spot at the front of the rotation over a lower ceiling college guy, and I think the Twins do too, but they're not always available, especially later on in the round.

Edited August 19, 2016 by birdwatcher

[tobi0040]

So who should the Twins have picked in 2007? Why did so many teams fail to find that high upside starter you wanted the Twins to select in 2007? They sure as heck tried. In Revere's draft,, high school pitchers were taken three picks after Revere (Smoker), and again at #42, #44, #47, #53, #58, #60, and #62, if I looked carefully and remembered right. Not a single one of those guys ever pitched an inning of MLB baseball, I'm fairly sure.

 

If the next five teams picked guys that gave them ZERO WAR, and no HS pitcher worked out over the next 30 picks or so, can you label the Revere pick as a bad one? And if so, doesn't this suggest that the Twins are in fact not EXCEPTIONALLY bad at this drafting thing? Would Berrios, Stewart, Gonsalves, Romero, Thorpe, and Jorge qualify as high upside starters? I get the theory and the appeal of a high school pitcher who might eventually take a spot at the front of the rotation over a lower ceiling college guy, and I think the Twins do too, but they're not always available, especially later on in the round.

I am not tying to revisionist look back. I don't think it was a player selection issue, this guy turned out and that guy didn't. Revere was never going to be a difference maker. Neither was Wimmers. Or the relievers for that matter.

 

We should focus on areas that we can't solve in free agency. Low ceiling Corner OF, 1B, relievers, we can buy those. Catcher, SP, SS. Not so much

[bird]

 

Haha let's not open that can of worms.  I wanted Giolito as well.

 

 

You guys are geniuses!  Half the teams in baseball lacked the scouting projection skill you and stevj apparently possess, because they missed out on Giolito, Seager, and Russell in the top half of that draft.

 

Who should the Twins take this year, you guys? 

[bird]

 

I am not tying to revisionist look back. I don't think it was a player selection issue, this guy turned out and that guy didn't. Revere was never going to be a difference maker. Neither was Wimmers. Or the relievers for that matter.

We should focus on areas that we can't solve in free agency. Low ceiling Corner OF, 1B, relievers, we can buy those. Catcher, SP, SS. Not so much

 

 

I guess that makes sense. So you're fine with Gordon, Berrios, Jay if he pans out, but not so much Kiriloff I imagine.

Edited August 20, 2016 by birdwatcher

[tobi0040]

I guess that makes sense. So you're fine with Gordon, Berrios, Jay if he pans out, but not so much Kiriloff I imagine.

More or less. I liked those other picks better than Kiriloff. But I like Kiriloff better than Revere. Some think this kid is really going to hit. A really good hitting corner OF is bordering on a player we can't sign in free agency.

 

But Revere is a guy that we can afford his ceiling. The report I read in Wimmers when we drafted him was FB that tops 90-91 and good command. We can sign guys like Pelfrey and Correia all day.

[Mike Sixel]

You guys are geniuses!  Half the teams in baseball lacked the scouting projection skill you and stevj apparently possess, because they missed out on Giolito, Seager, and Russell in the top half of that draft.

 

Who should the Twins take this year, you guys? 

Kind of a rude response. They wanted a different guy. We are here to bs about the team... What is the issue?

[ThejacKmp]

 

Sure.  But here is another point:  They did not need Gordon, because they have another young shortstop who at the same age and also 2.7 years younger at the same league had a .780 OPS (and the previous season in A had an .813 OPS vs Gordon's .696)

 

What drives me crazy about the way that the Twins spend their resources, be it high round draft picks, free agents, waiver wire pickups and what not, is that there seems to be no plan at all.   You cannot pick 3-4 centerfielders with the first draft pick together because you end up in the Span-Revere-Hicks-Buxton oopsie mess.  You cannot horde SS the same way, especially when you have glaring weaknesses in the organization is positions like LHSP and C.

 

That "best player available" situation is just ridiculous.  Because in reality, is not the best player available, is who the Twins' braintrust thinks is the best player available, and more times than not, it really is not.

 

It there's one thing you can pick up from watching Twins prospects the past 5 years, it's that you don't know who will pan out and who won't. Not having a redundancy in the minors is insane. Every team drafts SS and CF like crazy because those guys often move to other positions. I'm not sure who you're referencing with the "already had a SS" narrative but if it's Polanco, it's the perfect example of why you keep taking SS. Though the MLB crunch at 2B and 3B has Polanco playing SS to finish out this lost season, he does not profile to be able to play the position long-term. That's why you get Gordon and Vielma and all the other SS you have - you don't know who is going to stick at SS and SS is where you get the best athletes.

 

What???? Taking CFers means that they won't turn out???? That doesn't even make sense if you're in middle school. And Span, Revere, Hicks and Buxton are hardly an indictment of the Twins drafting. All four have made the majors and you have a borderline all-star in Span, an average CF in Revere, a top prospect in Buxton and a useful platoon OF in Hicks. That's not a failure in drafting - go look at how many first round picks don't make the majors before complaining about that.

 

Well yes, it is an opinion on who the best available player is - we all wish that there was a magic 8 ball that you would shake and it would tell you who that was or that the Twins had harnessed time travel and used it to see who would be good. Alas, that is science fiction.

 

P.S. Go look at catchers drafted after the Twins first round picks. You would call those mistakes too. That's why teams take the best available player - there's no projecting with certainty in baseball so they take their best guess.