Article: Pitching Pipeline: What's Next?

[ThejacKmp]

 

That's a real low bar you're setting there. 

 

The Twins have been bad for several years now. When they get these high draft picks, they have to hit on them. 

 

Only two players in the team's draft from those four straight 90-loss seasons, Buxton and Berrios, have made the majors. Neither has done particularly well.

 

Meanwhile, EACH of the Chicago Cubs' top draft picks from 2011 through 2014 are currently in the majors, contributing strongly to the big league club. 

 

Want to know the difference between the Twins and the Cubs? It's not how much money the teams are spending. Its their respective abilities to hit on draft picks and young players. 

You’re comparing apples and oranges here and I’m also not sure that your conclusions are as clear as you try to make them. To whit:

 

The Cubs took the following: 2011 HS hitter, 2012 HS hitter, 2013 Coll hitter, 2014 Coll hitter
The twins took the following: 2011 Coll hitter, 2012 HS Hitter, 2013 HS pitcher, 2014 HS hitter

 

1.) In 2011 the Cubs picked 9th and the Twins picked 30th. Kind of hard to compare a top 10 pick with a dregs of the 1st round pick. If you look 1987 to 2013 (ignore the past few years because guys are too young and before 1987 because draft rules changed) guys picked #30 make the pros 55% of the time and of those who do, they produce an average of 6.2 WAR. Guys picked #9 make the pros 75% of the time and those who do produce an average of 10.6 WAR. So it’s hard to blame a team for having a worse pick at #30 than the team that drafted #9. Not sure why you’d even include 2011 in your decidedly arbitrary sample.

 

2.) As for 2012, I’m pretty sure that if the Cubs called up the Twins today and offered to trade 2012 1st round picks, the Twins wouldn’t have time to laugh before hanging up the phone. Albert Amora is a nice enough player but his minor league numbers are nowhere near Buxton’s – he profiles as a 4th OF or defensive CF (OPS in low .700s in upper minors, no track record of stealing bases, limited power). And I’m not sure he’s a good example for your point either – he has fewer MLB at-bats than Buxton and his OPS+ of 89 is below average (and without the minor league success that makes Buxton intriguing). So the Twins got their guy to the pros first and he seems more likely to be a long-term core piece.

 

3.) As for 2013 and 2014, college hitters make it to the pros the fastest of any draft picks so comparing the current status of two college hitters vs a HS pitcher and a HS hitter is pretty disingenuous. Stewart and Gordon both look poised to be in AA or AAA next year, right about on track for players drafted out of HS. Schwarber and Bryant are great picks (important to note that the Cubs picked before the Twins both years so the Twins had no shot at either guy and perhaps would have taken them if they were available) but you can’t say that Stewart and Gordon might not be better in five years. Comparing HS and college prospects in the short-term is bogus.

 

4.) Well okay, even if Gordon is an all-star, Stewart isn’t going to be as good as Bryant. But that’s the other part. The Twins aren’t the Cubs and can’t take all hitters and then just buy elite pitching – they’re in different markets. The Twins have consistently had to use high picks on pitching, the most unpredictable of gambits while the Cubs have the luxury to focus on elite position players, a much more predictable resource. Kohl Stewart looks like the biggest bust of the 8 (Levi Michael was a 30th overall pick, hard for me to include him as a bust since it’s a coin toss guys drafted where he is are MLB regulars) but that’s not surprising since he’s a HS pitcher. It's a gamble the Twins have to take if they're going to build a playoff rotation.

 

Overall, I think this is a bogus way to look at the draft. You are grading very different types of fruit (where picked, age etc.) on a single scale because it gives you the result you’re looking for.

 

Edited August 18, 2016 by ThejacKmp

[Steve Lein]

 

Seems a bit exaggerated by KLaw. What exactly is very violent about this motion?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=9&v=Ee-GEMIXNxo

 

It's robotic and stiff. I see a lot of effort in that delivery.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I think the Twins messed up drafting Buxton when they could have had Seager, Giolito or Russell. Shoulda coulda woulda's aren't cool. We drafted Gibson over Mike Trout.

 

Mike Trout was taken 25th overall. 24 teams passed on him and regret it. Hard to blame the Twins for that since MLB drafting is the least predictable of the major sports. Hell, the Nats would take a do over for that draft and they took Strausburg.

[Steve Lein]

 

Laughable.....
The Twins do such a bad job of developing and promoting prospects that if the had taken either Bennentendi or Fulmer, neither would be in Minnespolis right now.
Bennentendi would be in AA and Fulmer would be in High A

 

Also this. There is no way either of those guys would be above AA in the Twins system at this point. It's who they are with their development plan, and expecting that they would have done something different for them because they're in the majors with other teams fits the definition of insanity.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You’re comparing apples and oranges here and I’m also not sure that your conclusions are as clear as you try to make them. To whit:

 

The Cubs took the following: 2011 HS hitter, 2012 HS hitter, 2013 Coll hitter, 2014 Coll hitter
The twins took the following: 2011 Coll hitter, 2012 HS Hitter, 2013 HS pitcher, 2014 HS hitter

 

1.) In 2011 the Cubs picked 9th and the Twins picked 30th. Kind of hard to compare a top 10 pick with a dregs of the 1st round pick. If you look 1987 to 2013 (ignore the past few years because guys are too young and before 1987 because draft rules changed) guys picked #30 make the pros 55% of the time and of those who do, they produce an average of 6.2 WAR. Guys picked #9 make the pros 75% of the time and those who do produce an average of 10.6 WAR. So it’s hard to blame a team for having a worse pick at #30 than the team that drafted #9. Not sure why you’d even include 2011 in your decidedly arbitrary sample.

 

2.) As for 2012, I’m pretty sure that if the Cubs called up the Twins today and offered to trade 2012 1st round picks, the Twins wouldn’t have time to laugh before hanging up the phone. Albert Amora is a nice enough player but his minor league numbers are nowhere near Buxton’s – he profiles as a 4th OF or defensive CF (OPS in low .700s in upper minors, no track record of stealing bases, limited power). And I’m not sure he’s a good example for your point either – he has fewer MLB at-bats than Buxton and his OPS+ of 89 is below average (and without the minor league success that makes Buxton intriguing). So the Twins got their guy to the pros first and he seems more likely to be a long-term core piece.

 

3.) As for 2013 and 2014, college hitters make it to the pros the fastest of any draft picks so comparing the current status of two college hitters vs a HS pitcher and a HS hitter is pretty disingenuous. Stewart and Gordon both look poised to be in AA or AAA next year, right about on track for players drafted out of HS. Schwarber and Bryant are great picks (important to note that the Cubs picked before the Twins both years so the Twins had no shot at either guy and perhaps would have taken them if they were available) but you can’t say that Stewart and Gordon might not be better in five years. Comparing HS and college prospects in the short-term is bogus.

 

4.) Well okay, even if Gordon is an all-star, Stewart isn’t going to be as good as Bryant. But that’s the other part. The Twins aren’t the Cubs and can’t take all hitters and then just buy elite pitching – they’re in different markets. The Twins have consistently had to use high picks on pitching, the most unpredictable of gambits while the Cubs have the luxury to focus on elite position players, a much more predictable resource. Kohl Stewart looks like the biggest bust of the 8 (Levi Michael was a 30th overall pick, hard for me to include him as a bust since it’s a coin toss guys drafted where he is are MLB regulars) but that’s not surprising since he’s a HS pitcher. It's a gamble the Twins have to take if they're going to build a playoff rotation.

 

Overall, I think this is a bogus way to look at the draft. You are grading very different types of fruit (where picked, age etc.) on a single scale because it gives you the result you’re looking for.

 

this whole meme that the Cubs are only good because they have money and can ignore pitching in the draft is old. really. old. the Twins could have taken the money spent on three FAs, and bought one great one.....would you rather have a great one, or Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco right now? It is a matter of resource allocation.

 

And, the Twins chose to choose HS guys....what if they had taken Trea Turner instead of Gordon? Same position, same draft, one is in the majors, one is not.

[mazeville]

 

Overall, I think this is a bogus way to look at the draft. You are grading very different types of fruit (where picked, age etc.) on a single scale because it gives you the result you’re looking for.

 

No it isn't. The overall point remains valid. It remains to be seen that the Twins' draft picks from 2012 through 2015 will generate the same type of performance as the Cubs' picks from that particular era. I included 2011 because, well, why the hell not. But I'd gladly disregard that year if it would make you happy. 

 

And the Twins' 2011 draft was awful, even for their draft position. Most of their drafts from previous years were also awful, even when factoring in their draft position those years.

 

The entire point: The team's run of awfulness is now in its sixth year -- five of six years if you factor out last year's false positive. And NONE of the team's draft picks from those years have have any impact on this year's team, unless it's been a bad impact. Houston, Chicago, Baltimore and others have all at least had some positive impact from kids drafted during their mediocre years.

 

And neither Stewart nor Gordon have exactly blown away the competition in the minors ...

[dxpavelka]

And Trevor May remains in the pen.

[bluechipper]

 

Another note about Tate: He has already been part of a trade. His value has already been maximized by the team that drafted him. For better or worse it's hard to picture the Twins trading a Jay, Stewart, or Gordon or whoever while they are still raw and fairly unknown quantities. 

Tate and two other players only got Texas a couple of months of a 39 year old DH.

[jimbo92107]

I really want Romero to be on this list. Not saying he should, but he's only a half step behind.

It would be fun to see Fernando Romero get bumped to AA before the season's over. That would be a very encouraging sign. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

this whole meme that the Cubs are only good because they have money and can ignore pitching in the draft is old. really. old. the Twins could have taken the money spent on three FAs, and bought one great one.....would you rather have a great one, or Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco right now? It is a matter of resource allocation.

 

And, the Twins chose to choose HS guys....what if they had taken Trea Turner instead of Gordon? Same position, same draft, one is in the majors, one is not.

 

Well... could not vs. would not. You're right, they CAN spend the money. I suspect though that this one is coming from ownership and that they won't... maybe that changes with a new GM, who knows, but I suspect this problem is a bit deeper than Terry Ryan... or maybe I've just been in the acceptance stage of grief for too long

 

I cannot speak for you, but nothing I saw on Trea Turner (other than fast riser) that really made me want the Twins to draft him. I think the Twins were right going for ceiling over speed to the majors, especially given that SS hasn't really been a position of need for the team over the last few years.

[dougd]

AL West scout according to Chris Crawford today at BPro:

 

The next Diaz: Tyler Jay, LHP Minnesota Twins. “I think he has a chance to start, but if you put this kid in relief? Good luck. The fastball and slider are both out-pitches right now, and left-handers have absolutely no chance against this dude. That’s not to say he can’t get right-handers out, those pitches and the change are good enough to do that, too. Heck, this might not be the next Edwin Diaz, this might be the next Andrew Miller. “

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well... could not vs. would not. You're right, they CAN spend the money. I suspect though that this one is coming from ownership and that they won't... maybe that changes with a new GM, who knows, but I suspect this problem is a bit deeper than Terry Ryan... or maybe I've just been in the acceptance stage of grief for too long

 

I cannot speak for you, but nothing I saw on Trea Turner (other than fast riser) that really made me want the Twins to draft him. I think the Twins were right going for ceiling over speed to the majors, especially given that SS hasn't really been a position of need for the team over the last few years.

 

the argument being made was.....we can't judge the Twins because they chose HSer, not collegians. Well, that was their choice. 

 

Would you like to bet Turner vs Gordon right now?

[FormerMinnasotan]

Pretty harsh take on Kohl Stewart, a guy who has a career 2.88 ERA, while being over 2 years younger than the league average at every stop.

 

In his first time repeating a level, he increased his K rate from 4.9 to 7.7 at Ft. Myers. Still not great but he's shown improvement, and even when he's not striking guys out, he's getting them out, so I'd say this has been an encouraging year for him.

I don't mind Stewart, but how the Twins have developed Stewart bothers me. Out of high school Stewart was seen as a power arm with a power repetoire of a mid 90's fast ball, slider, curve, and developing change. Instead of nurturing this the Twins introduced the sinker as Stewart's out pitch. Now unless Stewart is to have a power sinker ala Kevin Brown, Brandon Webb, or Carlos Zambrano there is no reason for Stewart to use a sinker. I don't think making Stewart the next Kyle Gibson, Carlos Silva, Derek Lowe, Aaron Cook, or Jake Westbrooke is a smart decision by the Twins. It's like the Twins were worried power pircher Stewart might have some bumps in the minors so the had Stewart develop the sinker to get "easy" ground outs. For a pitcher who's out pitch is the sinker either you are hittable, have low k numbers, and rely on the defense behind you, or you can have a power sinker that is un hittable with higher strike out totals, but your shoulder may give out by your 5th year in the bigs. I just wish the Twins molded Stewart into the power pitcher we hoped he'd be when he was drafted, not some ground ball inducing sinker ball pitcher.

[tobi0040]

Well... could not vs. would not. You're right, they CAN spend the money. I suspect though that this one is coming from ownership and that they won't... maybe that changes with a new GM, who knows, but I suspect this problem is a bit deeper than Terry Ryan... or maybe I've just been in the acceptance stage of grief for too long

 

I cannot speak for you, but nothing I saw on Trea Turner (other than fast riser) that really made me want the Twins to draft him. I think the Twins were right going for ceiling over speed to the majors, especially given that SS hasn't really been a position of need for the team over the last few years.

I wasn't too thrilled with the pick because I like high ceiling guys and I think Gordon was a pretty safe pick. But he has been a little better than I thought he would, especially this year. And he is at about the level I thought he would be, best case.

 

If we need to criticize the Twins at #5 by saying they should have taken the guy that went 13th I think we are being a tad picky. Especially when our player is likely a major league SS. Maybe not an all star, but a fairly good player. Gordon is looking better than Aiken or Kolek at 1 and 2, Alex Jackson, Kyle Freeland, etc. Most of the other guys in between 5-13 look like ok/good players but not great.

[Platoon]

the Cardinals have a voodoo pact going, you just can't compare them to the Twins at all. Or, maybe we should have higher expectations for the Twins, your call...

I will take door #2, please.

[jsteve96]

 

Mike Trout was taken 25th overall. 24 teams passed on him and regret it. Hard to blame the Twins for that since MLB drafting is the least predictable of the major sports. Hell, the Nats would take a do over for that draft and they took Strausburg.

Yes, i realize that. My point was we should not be saying Shoulda coulda woulda about drafts. theres almost always someone better you could get. I didn't want Jay, but I'm not gonna say we shoulda taken anyone else

[old nurse]

 

this whole meme that the Cubs are only good because they have money and can ignore pitching in the draft is old. really. old. the Twins could have taken the money spent on three FAs, and bought one great one.....would you rather have a great one, or Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco right now? It is a matter of resource allocation.

 

And, the Twins chose to choose HS guys....what if they had taken Trea Turner instead of Gordon? Same position, same draft, one is in the majors, one is not.

This whole meme the Twins could have spent money on one great pitcher gets old, really old.  The year they signed Nolasco and Hughes there was no other free agent pitcher out there. Tanaka required a posting fee. His 4 year contract plus a posting fee  Nolasco's and the original Hughes contracts wouldn't come  to meeting that. close to paying that.  Add in Santana's the next year and you would be OK for Tanaka. But not for Sherzer. r  Really old wanting what isn't available

[ThejacKmp]

 

this whole meme that the Cubs are only good because they have money and can ignore pitching in the draft is old. really. old. the Twins could have taken the money spent on three FAs, and bought one great one.....would you rather have a great one, or Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco right now? It is a matter of resource allocation.

 

And, the Twins chose to choose HS guys....what if they had taken Trea Turner instead of Gordon? Same position, same draft, one is in the majors, one is not.

 

It's not old. It's true. Go look at their drafting or better yet, Google it. Epstein states pretty unequivocally that it was his strategy. The Twins have devoted a lot of draft capital to developing pitching because they don't have the money to go buy a Lackey and a Lester and also resign an Arrieta. If the Twins are going to be good for an extended period of time (that should be the goal) they can't do things the Cubs way. That's just a fact.

 

The Twins aren't a tiny market team but they're also not a big market team. They don't sign big free agent pitchers and it's likely a good thing - one bad signing could cripple the team's growth. Plus, signing . . . James Shields? . . . wouldn't make the Twins a good team. If you want to be the Cubs and not invest in pitching, you need to be able to sign three or four elite pitchers. That ain't the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

It's not old. It's true. Go look at their drafting or better yet, Google it. Epstein states pretty unequivocally that it was his strategy. The Twins have devoted a lot of draft capital to developing pitching because they don't have the money to go buy a Lackey and a Lester and also resign an Arrieta. If the Twins are going to be good for an extended period of time (that should be the goal) they can't do things the Cubs way. That's just a fact.

 

The Twins aren't a tiny market team but they're also not a big market team. They don't sign big free agent pitchers and it's likely a good thing - one bad signing could cripple the team's growth. Plus, signing . . . James Shields? . . . wouldn't make the Twins a good team. If you want to be the Cubs and not invest in pitching, you need to be able to sign three or four elite pitchers. That ain't the Twins.

 

the Cubs traded for Arrieta, successfully identifying an undervalued asset, and we don't know they'll re-sign him or not. The Twins traded for May, Meyer, Milone and Worley...and signed Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco (and Pelfrey and Correia). This isn't about an unfair advantage....this is about doing a bad job of identifying and acquiring the correct players, imo. Apparently, the owner agrees.

 

I get it, according to some, the Twins have never had any money to ever sign a big time FA since McPhail left, and the Twins are at a huge disadvantage and shouldn't be expected to be good. 

Edited August 18, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[ThejacKmp]

 

No it isn't. The overall point remains valid. It remains to be seen that the Twins' draft picks from 2012 through 2015 will generate the same type of performance as the Cubs' picks from that particular era. I included 2011 because, well, why the hell not. But I'd gladly disregard that year if it would make you happy. 

 

And the Twins' 2011 draft was awful, even for their draft position. Most of their drafts from previous years were also awful, even when factoring in their draft position those years.

 

The entire point: The team's run of awfulness is now in its sixth year -- five of six years if you factor out last year's false positive. And NONE of the team's draft picks from those years have have any impact on this year's team, unless it's been a bad impact. Houston, Chicago, Baltimore and others have all at least had some positive impact from kids drafted during their mediocre years.

 

And neither Stewart nor Gordon have exactly blown away the competition in the minors ...

 

Um, Nick Gordon has a .745 OPS playing SS in high A where he is 2.7 years younger than the people he’s playing with. He’s a top 100 prospect for Baseball Prospectus (#62) and Baseball American (#53). I think he’s a doing pretty well.

 

Kohl Stewart is in AA ball (3.3 years younger than competition) holding his own. His K rate is not amazing and he’s looking more like a back-of-the-rotation starter but he’s far from a bust and uncertainty goes with drafting high school pitching. It was a good pick at the time and that doesn’t change because you have hindsight.

 

Let’s also remember that the team you insist on comparing them to (the Cubs) picked before the Twins both years. So the Twins never got a shot to take Bryant or Schwarber. Let’s not criticize them for it. In fact, the only year that the Twins got to pick ahead of the Cubs in your little sample (2012), they clearly made the right choice.

 

Finally, if the Twins were a wild card team next year, would you call 2015 a false positive? Let’s not call things before the die have settled. You say the kids from those drafts haven’t had an impact yet but you’re calling this one before the game has reached the third inning. With Berrios, Gonsalves, Buxton, Rosario, Garver, ABW, Granite, Duffey and any number of relievers still developing, you can’t call those drafts busts yet.

 

Have some patience.

[ThejacKmp]

 

the Cubs traded for Arrieta, successfully identifying an undervalued asset, and we don't know they'll re-sign him or not. The Twins traded for May, Meyer, Milone and Worley...and signed Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco (and Pelfrey and Correia). This isn't about an unfair advantage....this is about doing a bad job of identifying and acquiring the correct players, imo. Apparently, the owner agrees.

 

I get it, according to some, the Twins have never had any money to ever sign a big time FA since McPhail left, and the Twins are at a huge disadvantage and shouldn't be expected to be good. 

 

Agreed about Arrieta. Just saying that the Twins aren't a team that would be able to resign Arrieta if they found him. (And they'll resign him unless he's hurt, they've got so much money pouring in. If they don't it'll be because they sign Kershaw or some other big name instead).

 

I think you've missed a lot of the track of this discussion. No one has argued that the Twins shouldn't be expected to be good, just that it's pretty insane to try to judge the Twins by looking at them in comparison with the Cubs. They're just two teams that are in very different positions as far as market and resources go. The Cubs have some shortcuts available to them that the Twins don't have.

 

I always hated when people compared the early 2000s A's and Twins because the A's were smarter but at least it was a fair comparison. This one really isn't. If the Cubs didn't have Lackey and Lester, they'd be the Twins from 2007 - a steal in Johan Santana (Arrieta) and some fun young bats. But Lester and Lackey (plus Chapman now I guess) really show you what the Twins can't do.*

 

*Note that this is in the constrains of the Pohlad budgets. I can go off on how cheap the Pholads are (but not spell the name right) and how much they are the source of the problem. People blame TR but he worked the way he did for a reason, a lot of the blame is misplaced.

[old nurse]

 

the Cubs traded for Arrieta, successfully identifying an undervalued asset, and we don't know they'll re-sign him or not. The Twins traded for May, Meyer, Milone and Worley...and signed Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco (and Pelfrey and Correia). This isn't about an unfair advantage....this is about doing a bad job of identifying and acquiring the correct players, imo. Apparently, the owner agrees.

 

I get it, according to some, the Twins have never had any money to ever sign a big time FA since McPhail left, and the Twins are at a huge disadvantage and shouldn't be expected to be good. 

Not after they resigned Mauer and Morneau.  With Mauer's contract adding another 20 million a year player to a 120 million budget would mean 2 players are eating 1/3 of your budget.  The Twins are not going to find the 20 million in revenue to do that.  Television contract doesn't come until 2023. There isn't the long term money other clubs have.

[Thrylos]

 

Um, Nick Gordon has a .745 OPS playing SS in high A where he is 2.7 years younger than the people he’s playing with. He’s a top 100 prospect for Baseball Prospectus (#62) and Baseball American (#53). I think he’s a doing pretty well.

 

Sure.  But here is another point:  They did not need Gordon, because they have another young shortstop who at the same age and also 2.7 years younger at the same league had a .780 OPS (and the previous season in A had an .813 OPS vs Gordon's .696)

 

What drives me crazy about the way that the Twins spend their resources, be it high round draft picks, free agents, waiver wire pickups and what not, is that there seems to be no plan at all.   You cannot pick 3-4 centerfielders with the first draft pick together because you end up in the Span-Revere-Hicks-Buxton oopsie mess.  You cannot horde SS the same way, especially when you have glaring weaknesses in the organization is positions like LHSP and C.

 

That "best player available" situation is just ridiculous.  Because in reality, is not the best player available, is who the Twins' braintrust thinks is the best player available, and more times than not, it really is not.

[Thrylos]

 

Not after they resigned Mauer and Morneau.  With Mauer's contract adding another 20 million a year player to a 120 million budget would mean 2 players are eating 1/3 of your budget.  The Twins are not going to find the 20 million in revenue to do that.  Television contract doesn't come until 2023. There isn't the long term money other clubs have.

They did not re-sign them, they extended them.

 

And let me know, if you were not going to go nuts (to quote Prince,) if the Twins decided to had them both walk as free agents....

 

Just sayin'

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I always hated when people compared the early 2000s A's and Twins because the A's were smarter but at least it was a fair comparison. This one really isn't. If the Cubs didn't have Lackey and Lester, they'd be the Twins from 2007 - a steal in Johan Santana (Arrieta) and some fun young bats. But Lester and Lackey (plus Chapman now I guess) really show you what the Twins can't do.*

 

*Note that this is in the constrains of the Pohlad budgets. I can go off on how cheap the Pholads are (but not spell the name right) and how much they are the source of the problem. People blame TR but he worked the way he did for a reason, a lot of the blame is misplaced.

Lackey is a major FA signing that the Twins can't compete with? 2/32? We extended Hughes (and Nathan) for 3/42.

 

Also, Kyle Hendricks is the Cubs ERA+ leader this year, acquired in trade for Ryan Dempster (signed to a 4/52 contract, just like Nolasco-Santana-Hughes).

 

Another modest FA signing Jason Hammel is 3rd, behind Hendricks and Arrieta. Signed for 2/20 plus team option.

Edited August 18, 2016 by spycake

[Mike Sixel]

Who do we get to compare the twins to? Clearly not the Yankees, Boston, Toronto, or Tampa , that would be unfair to Tampa. Clearly not Texas. Detroit? Nope. Probably not the As, they are like Tampa. Given the tv deal difference, probably not Seattle. So.... Like three teams?

Edited August 19, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[SwainZag]

 

Sure.  But here is another point:  They did not need Gordon, because they have another young shortstop who at the same age and also 2.7 years younger at the same league had a .780 OPS (and the previous season in A had an .813 OPS vs Gordon's .696)

 

What drives me crazy about the way that the Twins spend their resources, be it high round draft picks, free agents, waiver wire pickups and what not, is that there seems to be no plan at all.   You cannot pick 3-4 centerfielders with the first draft pick together because you end up in the Span-Revere-Hicks-Buxton oopsie mess.  You cannot horde SS the same way, especially when you have glaring weaknesses in the organization is positions like LHSP and C.

 

That "best player available" situation is just ridiculous.  Because in reality, is not the best player available, is who the Twins' braintrust thinks is the best player available, and more times than not, it really is not.

 

You don't draft a 18 year old HS shortstop because you need a shortstop.  How many SS's end up at other positions?  Best player available in baseball makes complete sense.  How many teams KNOW exactly who the best player available is going to be?  With guys 5-6 years away from the majors taking a player at a position of current strength doesn't matter one bit.

[tobi0040]

You don't draft a 18 year old HS shortstop because you need a shortstop. How many SS's end up at other positions? Best player available in baseball makes complete sense. How many teams KNOW exactly who the best player available is going to be? With guys 5-6 years away from the majors taking a player at a position of current strength doesn't matter one bit.

I think his point, which I completely agree with is BPA to the extreme can have you drafting a CF like five times in 7 years. Or multiple SS when you may already have a few in your system.

[bird]

 

I think you vastly underestimate how often top picks reach the majors and make contributions. From 2002-2009 all first round picks (including the first round supplemental picks) reached the majors 64-82% of the time. Going earlier than 2002, most first rounders reached the majors at about 55-65%. Nearly every top ten pick at least gets a cup of coffee. Heck, since nearly every first round has 40+ picks when including the supp round, if the 20th pick doesn't reach the majors that's a bad pick. 73% of all #6 picks have reached the majors (78% if you remove the three most recent #6's.) and average 14 career WAR per major league player. There is a reason why Andrew Miller was seen as a draft bust. 

 

 

Okay, but let's talk comparatively. Let's start back in 2007. Ben Revere's selection was  (and still often is) roundly criticized. He was the 28th selection. He was a "reach", and logic tells us that teams selecting directly after the Twins should have been able to take advantage of the fact that the idiots in Minnesota passed up a few stronger prospects. 

 

The next 5 prospects taken in 2007 were Wendell Fairley, Andrew Brackman, Josh Smoker, Nick Noonan, and Jon Gilmore. So, not only did the Twins in retrospect appear to have selected wisely, but now let's look at what happened ahead of their opportunity to select a player. What you'll find is that 19 of the 27 players drafted ahead of Revere will end up having worse careers than Revere, or no career at all. In other words, looking at the 33 players selected, only 8 of them will have been better, and none of the eight were available for the Twins to draft.

 

I can expand on this for the next four years. Of the 25 players selected just after the Twin's selection (five each year), only 4 of the 25 project to accumulate more WAR than the player selected that year by the Twins. Those are Randal Grichuk and Michael Trout, both selected by the Angels in the #24 and #25 slots in Gibson's year, Brett Lawrie, selected 2 slots later than Hicks, and Christian Yelich, selected 2 slots after Wimmers. And importantly here, we're talking about the 5 Twins draft selections that people rant about the most among those of the last decade: Revere, Hicks, Gibson, Wimmers, and Michael. And contrary to the general impression and the common narrative, over half of the 110 players drafted ahead of the Twin's selections in this time period will likely have no better careers or will have worse careers than the Twin's selections. And again, we're dealing with two of the five probably having no career to speak of with Michael and Wimmers, and two others being rightfully viewed as having less than stellar careers in Revere and Hicks.

 

Only a half-dozen teams were NOT guilty of passing on Trout. So two dozen teams are complete idiots. When people say the Twins are crappy at drafting, I agree with them. When people say the Twis are EXCEPTIONALLY bad at it, I say prove it, apples to apples.

Edited August 19, 2016 by birdwatcher

[laloesch]

 

I think the Twins messed up drafting Buxton when they could have had Seager, Giolito or Russell. Shoulda coulda woulda's aren't cool. We drafted Gibson over Mike Trout.

 

 

Haha let's not open that can of worms.  I wanted Giolito as well.