Article: Pitching Pipeline: What's Next?

[SF Twins Fan]

 

1) I didn't not "basically" call Jay a bust. I pointed out factually that his physical transition to a starter's workload isn't going very well thus far, and the optics aren't great when you look at the pitchers taken after him. This article is a snapshot of where things stand with a bunch of 22-year-old pitchers so no one is being called a bust.

2) Not sure where you come away from my Gonsalves writeup with the view of it being negative. Saying a pitching prospect has the ceiling of "maybe a No. 1 or 2" is a compliment, not a disparagement. This isn't the be-all end-all, but heading into this year Gonsalves had never appeared on a Top 100 list from Baseball America, MLB.com or Baseball Prospectus. That's a lot of different prospects evaluators and scouts who haven't seen the ace-like potential despite the big numbers. If you think failing to inflate these guys with unrealistic hype makes me a "debbie downer" so be it, but I'd say you're the one who isn't seeing it clearly.

 

I look at it as you described him as a middle of the rotation player who maybe has a chance to be better.  I'm not sure I'd take that as a compliment if I was Gonsalves.

 

As for Jay you just stated that you're biased because you didn't like the pick to begin with.

 

"Jay was a gamble. With the sixth pick in last June's draft, the Twins took the Illinois closer just ahead of Andrew Benintendi, who is currently batting .350 for the Red Sox, and Carson Fulmer, who mowed through the minors and has been on the White Sox roster for a month.

Rather than go after the dynamic offensive talent or the established collegiate starter, the Twins decided to pick Jay with hopes he could successfully transition into a rotation piece. The results, thus far, have not been great."

 

"At the very least, this looks like it is going to be an extended project. Meanwhile, the players that Minnesota passed up to select Jay have rocketed to the big leagues and are already auditioning for prominent roles in 2017.

Not ideal."

 

You make it sound like the two players drafted after him are already "lightly it up" when in actuality the one has been sent back down and the other has a whopping total of 41 ABs.

[bluechipper]

 

Seems a bit exaggerated by KLaw. What exactly is very violent about this motion?

His delivery is a lot more high effort in games than that. Look up some video of him in game.

[drivlikejehu]

 

The same could have more or less been said about B.J. Hermsen, until his lack of ability to miss bats caught up with him. I'd honestly be curious to know how many pitchers that had a <16% K-rate or a sub-2 K/BB ratio in the minors have made a meaningful impact as big-leaguers in the past decade. I don't have time to do the research but I'm guessing the percentage is very small.

 

Few, if any. I'm not sure of any objective reason why Stewart is even a top 20 Twins prospect at this point.

[d-mac]

 

He mentions it a couple times on the front-end of his podcast here:  http://www.1500espn.com/the-scoop-2/2016/08/the-scoop-twins-gm-update-plus-rob-antony-and-cole-aldrich-join-ep-33/

 

Both before and after the Antony interview. 

Podcast? I don't have time to listen to that, so I'll just take your word for it. lol

[tobi0040]

Tyler Jay is looking a lot better DIllon Tate. Tucker at #5 is not ripping it up either.

 

Tate has a 4.39 ERA and has not reached AA. Only 7.5 k per 9 and 3.7 BB's.

 

Tucker has a .711 OPS and is in A ball. Stealing a lot of bases.

 

And Jay's numbers have been better than Fullmer's by a pretty wide margin.

Edited August 17, 2016 by tobi0040

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Another note about Tate: He has already been part of a trade. His value has already been maximized by the team that drafted him. For better or worse it's hard to picture the Twins trading a Jay, Stewart, or Gordon or whoever while they are still raw and fairly unknown quantities. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I believe he got sent back down this morning too. Not sure what the White Sox were thinking with him, or what they're thinking with Zach Burdi either. 

Well, Sale, Quintana, and Rodon all came up quickly too, and it's hard to argue with their results too much.  The White Sox like to develop guys at the MLB level.  Even if they fail, it's not necessarily a bad decision -- they may have failed later anyway, and there is value to the White Sox to know that sooner rather than later.  I definitely disagreed on Fulmer, but I've got to respect the White Sox commitment to this particular plan/method of theirs.

[Mike Sixel]

Failing early is one of the great secrets to successful companies, they limit their time and resources spent on bad ideas then. I'm not certain it totally applies to prospects, but it is why I'd rush them thru low A and high A, and have them spend more time in AA and AAA.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Failing early is one of the great secrets to successful companies, they limit their time and resources spent on bad ideas then. I'm not certain it totally applies to prospects, but it is why I'd rush them thru low A and high A, and have them spend more time in AA and AAA.

 

I think it depends. I'm definitely more of a case by case basis on a lot of this as everyone has extenuating circumstances which makes these decisions difficult. The goal isn't to minimize time spent on mistakes but to maximize development for everyone. The biggest issue with a global type approach to this is that there are always going to be examples of where a specific policy fails a specific prospect. That's why I think it really depends on the prospect.  I think your approach will work better with most college guys, but for high school guys, that doesn't make as much sense (and of course there are exceptions with both groups). 

 

Keep in mind that for every guy that gets pushed up, someone else gets pushed out. That's what really makes it difficult, even more so at deeper positions.

[tobi0040]

Another note about Tate: He has already been part of a trade. His value has already been maximized by the team that drafted him. For better or worse it's hard to picture the Twins trading a Jay, Stewart, or Gordon or whoever while they are still raw and fairly unknown quantities.

I don't agree a trade means they maximized his value. His struggles were reflected in the return.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I don't agree a trade means they maximized his value. His struggles were reflected in the return.

You are correct. Poor phrasing.

[Bill Tanner]

Gonsalves helped prove your point tonight, Nick!  Fairly solid 6 inning, no hit, 2BB, 9K performance. Too bad his pitch count got up there!

 

 

While Mejia is closest to the big leagues, he is not Minnesota's top pitching prospect. That honor, almost indisputably, goes to Gonsalves at this point.

[jorgenswest]

Gonsalves is in a similar spot as Berrios in 2014 splitting the season between A and AA. It still may a lengthy path towards major league success.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Gonsalves is in a similar spot as Berrios in 2014 splitting the season between A and AA. It still may a lengthy path towards major league success.

And oddly enough Gonsalves looks far better in AA than Berrios did initially. In 2014 for New Britian Berrios went 3-4 in 8 starts with a 3.54 ERA and only 28 strike outs in 40 innings. I honestly expected Gonsalves to "struggle" like that, but instead he has gone from an A+ call up to the ace of the staff in Chattanooga in 10 starts. He HAS to be better than what his scouting report said at the beginning of this year. Of course he still has to work on his control. But if that is really all that is keeping him from the majors he defiantly might be even better than we imagined even going into this season.

[jorgenswest]

Many good pitchers had high walk rates in the minors.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-8507-searching-for-radke/

[Darius]

I guess I'm not seeing this. It strikes me more as a statement of hype. The two are the same age, and Gonsalves is sitting in AA instead of A ball (yes, I know an injury was there). Results are a mixed bag. Both limit homeruns (with Romero slightly better). Gonsalves gets more Ks. Romero has less walks. WHIPs thus far are nearly identical. Not that Romero isn't a bad prospect, but I'm really not sure just how much higher said ceiling is.

As a general rule of thumb, the farther away from the majors a player is, the better a player he'll be, and thus should be moved through the system faster.

[Jordan1212]

That's why when people ask or feel bad why Terry Ryan lost his job this is the reason you named only 2 players out of how ever many that were better than Tyler Jay that's terrible. The way I see it and been preaching for quite some time is that our cupboard is bare when it comes to pitching and wonder why we keep signing people or trading for the likes of Santiago who is awful by the way but this is scarry I agree it's time to trade dozier and get some pitching Cuz we can't win if we can't have a starter pitch more than 5 innings and name a pitcher besides Brad Radke that Terry Ryan drafted who was mediocre also you can't. We haven't had anybody I hope it changes.

[jsteve96]

 

Again, the point here was more relating to workload progression and timelines than picking apart small-sample minor-league stats. 

 

Maybe both of these guys are bound for the bullpen. If so, then the Twins still passed up Benintendi, who has clearly developed into one of the game's better OF prospects. The pick just doesn't look very good right now. 

I think the Twins messed up drafting Buxton when they could have had Seager, Giolito or Russell. Shoulda coulda woulda's aren't cool. We drafted Gibson over Mike Trout.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Fun fact...in all 3 August starts Stephen Gonsalves has pitched 21 innings given up 1 run and no earned runs meaning his August ERA so far is 0.00. Wow...

[bird]

 

I think he's harsh on Tyler Jay like others here - he was going to take some time to make the transition. Also, some teams promote more aggressively, as the White Sox have demonstrated.

 

But it's also a big concern that two players drafted immediately afterward are already in the majors. 

 

Indeed, many of the players drafted during the team's run of awfulness have yet to make the majors, or even AAA, or be effective once they get there (Berrios and Buxton). Meanwhile, teams like the Texas Rangers, the New York Mets and others are thriving with recent draftees.

 

We can't get a new GM and regime fast enough ...

 

 

Every team that drafts the #6 prospect each year has fans that complain about the couple of guys drafted a few picks later that have better careers than their guy. It may be that Benintendi has the best career of any player in that draft. So fans will call for the heads of GM's across the continent I guess. And it's not a race about who gets here first. Jay is progressing at a normal clip. Berrios and Buxton are terrific picks, looking retrospectively or otherwise. The Twins have not had an awful draft now for a decade now. Well, maybe one. Practically every team in baseball had an awful draft the year Levi Michael was drafted. The Rangers, Mets, and ohers have also had an awful draft during this period. It happens.

[Gagne Fan]

Laughable.....

The Twins do such a bad job of developing and promoting prospects that if the had taken either Bennentendi or Fulmer, neither would be in Minnespolis right now.

Bennentendi would be in AA and Fulmer would be in High A

[Mr. Brooks]

Every team that drafts the #6 prospect each year has fans that complain about the couple of guys drafted a few picks later that have better careers than their guy. It may be that Benintendi has the best career of any player in that draft. So fans will call for the heads of GM's across the continent I guess. And it's not a race about who gets here first. Jay is progressing at a normal clip. Berrios and Buxton are terrific picks, looking retrospectively or otherwise. The Twins have not had an awful draft now for a decade now. Well, maybe one. Practically every team in baseball had an awful draft the year Levi Michael was drafted. The Rangers, Mets, and ohers have also had an awful draft during this period. It happens.

Some high picks, like Buxton, are pretty obvious at the time. Those, I agree are unfair to rip in hindsight.

 

I think a pick like Jay is a bit different though. That was a questionable and risky pick at the time, so I think it's perfectly fair to continue to question the pick if it doesn't work out.

[bird]

 

Typically, if your top ten pick turns out to only be a reliever, it's usually a bust. 

 

 

Historically, three of your top ten picks never see a day in the majors, and couple of the top ten pitchers always end up as relievers, so while it would be a disappointment to end up with Jay being more Perkins-like, that's just part of the whole shootin' match. Caveat: anecdotally, it seems like the predictability of these top picks is improving recently, at least when it comes to the college guys from elite programs.

[bird]

 

Some high picks, like Buxton, are pretty obvious at the time. Those, I agree are unfair to rip in hindsight.

I think a pick like Jay is a bit different though. That was a questionable and risky pick at the time, so I think it's perfectly fair to continue to question the pick if it doesn't work out.

 

 

Yes, I'd agree with that take. Without an ounce of knowledge and armed with a few paragraphs of information, I had an uneasiness about Jay that I don't think I would have had with Fulmer or Benintendi as the pick. It'll be interesting to see if we get some hints about what the new guy thinks of Deron Johnson and his top scouts, and whatever we learn about changes they make in the process are going to be fun to discuss.

[mazeville]

 

The Twins have not had an awful draft now for a decade now. 

 

That's a real low bar you're setting there. 

 

The Twins have been bad for several years now. When they get these high draft picks, they have to hit on them. 

 

Only two players in the team's draft from those four straight 90-loss seasons, Buxton and Berrios, have made the majors. Neither has done particularly well.

 

Meanwhile, EACH of the Chicago Cubs' top draft picks from 2011 through 2014 are currently in the majors, contributing strongly to the big league club. 

 

Want to know the difference between the Twins and the Cubs? It's not how much money the teams are spending. Its their respective abilities to hit on draft picks and young players. 

 

I understand it's way too early to call either Berrios or Buxton a bust. And I'm certainly not writing off Tyler Jay. But this team cannot afford to have mediocre draft results when it has high draft choices. That is not going to fly. You have to hit on those guys. Period.

[bird]

 

I haven't seen this anywhere. Do you have a direct quote? If he did indeed say that, that is huge. 

 

 

Antony said it during his recent interview with Doogie.

[bird]

 

You don't see how I can draw the conclusion that the Thins have drafted terribly? I didn't think that was a secret.

 

We see this statement around here all the time. Frankly, I think it shows a level of myopia, and here's why:

 

For starters, terrible compared to whom?

 

Kiriloff

Jay

Gordon

Stewart

Berrios

Buxton

Michael

Wimmers

Gibson

Hicks

 

Ten year's worth of picks. Surely, there's lots to quibble about, for example Fulmer instead of Jay. But to say that they've made terrible decisions? At the time of almost all of these picks, I believe you would find more commentary from the draft experts applauding the decision than you'd find criticizing the choice.

 

The last four, Michael, Wimmers, Gibson, and Hicks, have been constantly touted around here for years as the poster children for how crappy our GM is (because he obviously single-handedly selects these guys, we all know that). No consideration seems to EVER be even begrudgingly offered by critics for EITHER the draft order OR the quality of the draft that year. And it's almost ALWAYS a criticism that doesn't allow for comparison. But that doesn't stop many critics from continuing with the narrative that the Twins are exceptionally bad at it, and the main retort to my pushback is the current record, as if no other factors could even possibly be the main source of the problem. No, bad draft decisions simply HAVE to be a big contributing factor to the teams struggles, they say.

 

And so, I keep asking people to go back and review those four drafts, 07'-'10, and make a list of the 5 players taken after Michael, Wimmers, Gibson, and Hicks. Now, if the Twins were all that bad, wouldn't you think that a majority of those 20 selections would be productive players? Certainly, half of them at least? I have yet to get a response. Not once. 

 

My theory is that, by Taildragger's definition, almost ALL teams are terrible drafters over this ten-year period of time. Because, maybe their Gibson and their Hicks were not all that impressive and it goes unnoticed that, if looked at fairly, that was pretty much the best they could do in that particular draft given their particular order in that particular draft.

 

So, c'mon guys, go ahead. Go out to the '08 draft and tell us who which two prospects they should have considered within a few slots after Gibson if they had any brains in their heads. And if you mention some Cy Young winner selected in the 37th round, you deserve to be banished for life.

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

yeah i thought about him as well.  Last i heard his rehab was not going super well.  Progress very slowly.

 

Well, not going well but not for the obvious reasons. He got mono so they shut him down for a month. Too much making out for the Aussie sensation I guess.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Hughes, Duffey, May, and Gibson are still under contract in 2019 and Santana has a option... 

 

Not to rain on your parade of dreams, but... 

 

1.) Santana has a team option of $14 million. That is no barrier and presents only opportunity for the Twins. I imagine most of doubt the Twins will be picking up that option as Santana will be 36.

 

2.) Hughes seems to have a decent chance of ending up in the bullpen by the end of his deal. Might not be the worst thing as he has had success there.

 

3.) To be honest, Duffey also profiles like a guy who might be excellent in the pen and not as good in the rotation (shaky third pitch). There have been rumblings from scouts ever since he was drafted. He'll get his chances to start in the next 2.5 years but I don't see him as a real hard barrier to any promising young guy if he keeps pitching like he does.

 

4.) Gibson will be a prime trade candidate over the next few years. He's got team control but if the Twins start getting young guys who are cheaper and ready, he could very easily be dealt. And if he's the pitcher he's been over the past few years (#4 starter?), I don't see him being a huge barrier.

 

I guess overall I'd just say that if any of these guys block the young guys (assuming they succeed of course) it will be because the vets are pitching well. That's a nice problem to have.

 

[d-mac]

 

Historically, three of your top ten picks never see a day in the majors, and couple of the top ten pitchers always end up as relievers, so while it would be a disappointment to end up with Jay being more Perkins-like, that's just part of the whole shootin' match. Caveat: anecdotally, it seems like the predictability of these top picks is improving recently, at least when it comes to the college guys from elite programs.

 

I think you vastly underestimate how often top picks reach the majors and make contributions. From 2002-2009 all first round picks (including the first round supplemental picks) reached the majors 64-82% of the time. Going earlier than 2002, most first rounders reached the majors at about 55-65%. Nearly every top ten pick at least gets a cup of coffee. Heck, since nearly every first round has 40+ picks when including the supp round, if the 20th pick doesn't reach the majors that's a bad pick. 73% of all #6 picks have reached the majors (78% if you remove the three most recent #6's.) and average 14 career WAR per major league player. There is a reason why Andrew Miller was seen as a draft bust.