Article: Pitching Pipeline: What's Next?

[Mike Sixel]

Gibson has 8 starts where he has given up 4 or more runs, and 8 where he has given up 3 or less runs. that's not putrid. It just isn't.

 

It would be foolish not to sign him for next year.

[d-mac]

The outlook for Twins pitching is really depressing.

 

Meijia is looking like a potential mid-rotation starter and Gonsalves could be pretty good, but the prospect gurus don't like him all that well. His numbers say otherwise, so we'll see.

 

At this point Stewart is a massive bust and I'm not particularly high on Jorge as his K/9 rates are pretty mediocre.

 

The jury is still out on Jay at this point, he was solid given his transition before his injury. We'll have to wait and see how he recovers.

 

Romero is pitching decently, but at this point he's likely 2 or more years away and I definitely would not give him front of the rotation starter hype yet. At this point his numbers are more mid-rotation variety.

 

I was pretty much on board the Thorpe hype train before his injury, but he'll likely not pitch again until next year. That'll be two full seasons of not pitching. It's pretty difficult to see how he'll bounce back from this. 

 

This is why the Twins need to give May and Duffy one more full year of starting to see what they have. They need to trade Dozier for starting pitching. They should have traded Santana at the deadline since he is rapidly approaching 35 and it's unlikely the twins will be contending during his last few productive years. 

[DocBauer]

 

Assuming Santana is around next year, it's going to be an interesting rotation battle.

 

Molitor has said, per Doogie, that May's going back into the rotation for next year.  

 

I have no idea what to make of Gibson, Santiago or Duffey at this point (I wish Duffey would go to the pen, personally).

 

I think Berrios, Mejia and Gonsalves all deserve a shot, too.

 

Assuming by the end of the year we move Santana, I'm actually excited about the prospects of:

 

Berrios

Mejia

Gonsalves

May

 

With these guys battling for the 5th spot:  Stewart/Jay/Romero

 

Am I nuts?

 

I believe Santana will be back to help anchor the club with his veteran experience. I'm not convinced Santiago will be back and Hughes shouldn't be counted on for anything at this point, contract or not. Even if he comes back by ST strong, he may be a reliever initially. 

 

Santana

Gibson

Berrios

May

Duffey

 

with the younger Mejia the primary challenger and Wheeler behind him.

[puckstopper1]

I'm of the mindset that even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile, but the Twins are trying to prove that axiom wrong in their ability to draft and develop top of the rotation starting pitching.  Berrios and Gonsalves have a chance but the Twins track record, unfortunately, does not breed confidence in that occurring.

[d-mac]

 

Gibson has 8 starts where he has given up 4 or more runs, and 8 where he has given up 3 or less runs. that's not putrid. It just isn't.

 

It would be foolish not to sign him for next year.

 

I think the Twins are trying to force him to be something he's not- an extreme groundball pitcher. He's got good secondary pitches, the team needs to let him run a bit with two strikes on a hitter. Use the plus slider and solid changeup to put away hitters, both of those pitches generate a ton of swinging strikes and groundballs for him. No more of this repeatedly throwing two-seamers in two strike counts crap. He doesn't command that pitch well and neither of his fastballs generate swinging strikes. His stuff will lead to a high GB% on its own. No need to force it. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

You can be disappointed about the other guys being in the majors already, but it comes off as you holding that against Jay.

I'm not holding it against Jay, I'm holding it against the Twins. With a desperate need for starting pitching, they bypassed the top collegiate ace in the country in order to gamble on transitioning another reliever into a starter.

 

Someone else brought up the Duffey comparison and I think that one is apt. He threw 70 innings in 2012, between his junior year at Rice and his rookie ball debut. The next year he made the starting transition and went up to 120 innings. Then 150 the next year. That's the progression you're looking for.

Jay stalling out before 90 innings this year puts him behind, in a case where the stakes are much higher because he was a Top 10 pick not a 5th-rounder. And because Minnesota's era of ineptitude is extending well beyond a half-decade and they need reinforcements soon, not in 2-3 years when/if Jay is able to acclimate to the rigors of starting. 

[d-mac]

 

 

Molitor has said, per Doogie, that May's going back into the rotation for next year.  

 

 

I haven't seen this anywhere. Do you have a direct quote? If he did indeed say that, that is huge. 

[laloesch]

 

I haven't seen this anywhere. Do you have a direct quote? If he did indeed say that, that is huge. 

 

Yea, i'm curious to read more if this is indeed true.  

[d-mac]

 

I'm not holding it against Jay, I'm holding it against the Twins. With a desperate need for starting pitching, they bypassed the top collegiate ace in the country in order to gamble on transitioning another reliever into a starter.

 

Someone else brought up the Duffey comparison and I think that one is apt. He threw 70 innings in 2012, between his junior year at Rice and his rookie ball debut. The next year he made the starting transition and went up to 120 innings. Then 150 the next year. That's the progression you're looking for.

Jay stalling out before 90 innings this year puts him behind, in a case where the stakes are much higher because he was a Top 10 pick not a 5th-rounder. And because Minnesota's era of ineptitude is extending well beyond a half-decade and they need reinforcements soon, not in 2-3 years when/if Jay is able to acclimate to the rigors of starting. 

 

This x1000. Jay still has the potential to be a quality starting pitcher. But he likely won't help the Twins until 2018-2019 at the earliest. 

[Taildragger8791]

 

I really don't see how you can draw that conclusion.  Development is development. If they can identify and  develop an international signing, they can identify and develop a draftee.  Coaches don't change between the two.  Player stops don't change (except for a stint in the DSL for some international signings) I think you're missing just how much goes into getting a player from the rookie leagues to the majors. It's not simple.  You're applying standards to the Twins that no major league team can reasonably attain. 

 

You don't see how I can draw the conclusion that the Thins have drafted terribly? I didn't think that was a secret.

 

I understand once players are in the system they all go through the same development channels. All I said is the Twins have somehow done ok lately at identifying and signing international talent, which is in contrast to their performance in the draft. I don't know if they're bringing in different types of players that fare better in their system, or they just got lucky on one side and unlucky on the other. You really think it's an unfair standard to ask for an average of 1-2 quality major leaguers out of the draft every 2-3 years? Because right now it's more like every 4-5. The Twins can't outspend their poor drafting like the Yankees, so they have to be better than league average at it.

[Willihammer]

I have to say Fulmer's stuff looked pretty underwhelming- in relief, against the Twins a couple weeks ago. SSS of course.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Assuming Santana is around next year, it's going to be an interesting rotation battle.

 

Molitor has said, per Doogie, that May's going back into the rotation for next year.  

 

I have no idea what to make of Gibson, Santiago or Duffey at this point (I wish Duffey would go to the pen, personally).

 

I think Berrios, Mejia and Gonsalves all deserve a shot, too.

 

Assuming by the end of the year we move Santana, I'm actually excited about the prospects of:

 

Berrios

Mejia

Gonsalves

May

 

With these guys battling for the 5th spot:  Stewart/Jay/Romero

 

Am I nuts?

Oh, definitely

[THE DFC]

 

I haven't seen this anywhere. Do you have a direct quote? If he did indeed say that, that is huge. 

 

He mentions it a couple times on the front-end of his podcast here:  http://www.1500espn.com/the-scoop-2/2016/08/the-scoop-twins-gm-update-plus-rob-antony-and-cole-aldrich-join-ep-33/

 

Both before and after the Antony interview. 

[bluechipper]

 

1) I didn't not "basically" call Jay a bust. I pointed out factually that his physical transition to a starter's workload isn't going very well thus far, and the optics aren't great when you look at the pitchers taken after him. This article is a snapshot of where things stand with a bunch of 22-year-old pitchers so no one is being called a bust.
 

Carson Fulmer had a 4.76 ERA at AA with 5.3 BB/9. That's pretty awful from a guy who was a great starter in college. Everybody thought he would have to move to the bullpen. Him making the majors should have nothing to do with how you look at Jay.

 

And Tyler Jay's 2.84 ERA with 8.8 K/9 as a starter in A+ is pretty good.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Gibson has 8 starts where he has given up 4 or more runs, and 8 where he has given up 3 or less runs. that's not putrid. It just isn't.

 

It would be foolish not to sign him for next year.

 

Whether or not it's "putrid", a pitcher who gets shelled every other outing is still tough to live with. He struggles to get through 5-6 innings almost every start, even in those 0-3 run games. He puts piles of guys on base and puts his team on their heels the whole time, requiring them to get to every ground ball in order to limit the damage. He rarely has a clean game where you can count on him to eat innings and take pressure off the defense and offense.

 

I'd still offer him arbitration because he won't be expensive and this rotation is going to be warmed over dog doo doo next year anyways. But that doesn't mean I'm content with his performance, and I'd still be looking to replace him ASAP. I also sure as heck wouldn't let him block a prospect that forces their way into the rotation next year. The offense and bullpen are slowly getting better and it's time to raise the bar for expectations from all 5 starters before we squander too many more seasons.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I guess I'm not seeing this. It strikes me more as a statement of hype. The two are the same age, and Gonsalves is sitting in AA instead of A ball (yes, I know an injury was there). Results are a mixed bag. Both limit homeruns (with Romero slightly better). Gonsalves gets more Ks. Romero has less walks. WHIPs thus far are nearly identical. Not that Romero isn't a bad prospect, but I'm really not sure just how much higher said ceiling is.

Romero has pitched about half the innings Gonsalves has. I believe in fact his 77 innings pitched is a career high for him with him literally out for almost two seasons. But his stuff sounds down right over powering. Had Romero not had TJ and knee surgery he might be an even better prospect, but with his injuries his development has been delayed. I feel the more he can work on getting his pitches better and attacking the batter more the better he will be. We will have to see how next year stacks up, I'm hoping he's up for the challenge.

[bluechipper]

Pretty harsh take on Kohl Stewart, a guy who has a career 2.88 ERA, while being over 2 years younger than the league average at every stop.

 

In his first time repeating a level, he increased his K rate from 4.9 to 7.7 at Ft. Myers. Still not great but he's shown improvement, and even when he's not striking guys out, he's getting them out, so I'd say this has been an encouraging year for him.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Whether or not it's "putrid", a pitcher who gets shelled every other outing is still tough to live with. He struggles to get through 5-6 innings almost every start, even in those 0-3 run games. He puts piles of guys on base and puts his team on their heels the whole time, requiring them to get to every ground ball in order to limit the damage. He rarely has a clean game where you can count on him to eat innings and take pressure off the defense and offense.

 

I'd still offer him arbitration because he won't be expensive and this rotation is going to be warmed over dog doo doo next year anyways. But that doesn't mean I'm content with his performance, and I'd still be looking to replace him ASAP. I also sure as heck wouldn't let him block a prospect that forces their way into the rotation next year. The offense and bullpen are slowly getting better and it's time to raise the bar for expectations from all 5 starters before we squander too many more seasons.

 

I was rebutting him being called putrid, and that he should be cut after this year. Nothing more or less than that.

[sthpstm]

Does anyone know specifics on Gonsalves? How is his slider/cutter working?  Has he added any speed to his fastball?

As for Stewart, I think we need to continue being patient. He's only 21, in AA, and unless his stuff has regressed and/or not developed, hopefully he can continue working through becoming a pitcher.

[bluechipper]

 

I'm not holding it against Jay, I'm holding it against the Twins. With a desperate need for starting pitching, they bypassed the top collegiate ace in the country in order to gamble on transitioning another reliever into a starter.

Who many, if not most, thought would have to move to the bullpen. And his results from this year are showing that this is probably the case.

[jud6312]

 

Pretty harsh take on Kohl Stewart, a guy who has a career 2.88 ERA, while being over 2 years younger than the league average at every stop.

 

In his first time repeating a level, he increased his K rate from 4.9 to 7.7 at Ft. Myers. Still not great but he's shown improvement, and even when he's not striking guys out, he's getting them out, so I'd say this has been an encouraging year for him.

I'm with you on this one. He might never be the ace he was projected to be, but he's been getting guys out at every stop.

 

Just like I'm not expecting Gonsalves to continue putting up numbers in the majors like he has in the minors, I'm not ready to call Stewart a bust yet.

 

Too early for both - along with Thorpe, Jorge, Romero, etc. - to be pigeonholed as saviors or scapegoats.

 

Jay, I'm a little more concerned with. Not because of results, which I thought were pretty good early on, but because of the lack of innings and having to shut it down. He could still get there, I'm just hoping it's not as a LHP setup man. That would be disappointing.

[Vanimal46]

 

Who many, if not most, thought would have to move to the bullpen. And his results from this year are showing that this is probably the case.

How so? He pitched 6 or more innings in 7 of 17 starts while being over 2 years younger than the league average. 

[bluechipper]

 

How so? He pitched 6 or more innings in 7 of 17 starts while being over 2 years younger than the league average. 

He's got a 4.76 ERA and he walks a ton of guys. Plus he's got a weird, high-effort delivery that usually leads to pitching in the bullpen.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Pretty harsh take on Kohl Stewart, a guy who has a career 2.88 ERA, while being over 2 years younger than the league average at every stop.

The same could have more or less been said about B.J. Hermsen, until his lack of ability to miss bats caught up with him. I'd honestly be curious to know how many pitchers that had a

[Nick Nelson]

 

Carson Fulmer had a 4.76 ERA at AA with 5.3 BB/9. That's pretty awful from a guy who was a great starter in college. Everybody thought he would have to move to the bullpen. Him making the majors should have nothing to do with how you look at Jay.

 

And Tyler Jay's 2.84 ERA with 8.8 K/9 as a starter in A+ is pretty good.

Again, the point here was more relating to workload progression and timelines than picking apart small-sample minor-league stats. 

 

Maybe both of these guys are bound for the bullpen. If so, then the Twins still passed up Benintendi, who has clearly developed into one of the game's better OF prospects. The pick just doesn't look very good right now. 

[Vanimal46]

 

He's got a 4.76 ERA and he walks a ton of guys. Plus he's got a weird, high-effort delivery that usually leads to pitching in the bullpen.

Hmm, to each their own. I'm not a guy who analyzes wind ups, but his looks pretty normal. Pretty explosive in his lower half to get the velocity needed when he's 6' tall. 

[Taildragger8791]

 

Pretty harsh take on Kohl Stewart, a guy who has a career 2.88 ERA, while being over 2 years younger than the league average at every stop.

 

In his first time repeating a level, he increased his K rate from 4.9 to 7.7 at Ft. Myers. Still not great but he's shown improvement, and even when he's not striking guys out, he's getting them out, so I'd say this has been an encouraging year for him.

 

ERA alone in the minors doesn't mean much. K's, BB's, efficiency, and in-person scouting tell a much better story. Lots of pitchers get by on fringy stuff that they know how to get minor leaguers out with, especially in A ball, but then it doesn't translate to the majors.

 

To this point he's performed like a cross between Gibson and Blackburn and hasn't excelled at anything, but he hasn't failed or stagnated either. He's young, I just don't see how you can expect major growth at this point. And without major growth he doesn't elevate the rotation or becomes more than a fringe #5 guy. If I'm planning a rotation roadmap for the next two years I'm certainly not reserving a spot for him. If something changes then they can always work him in somewhere later.

[bluechipper]

 

Hmm, to each their own. I'm not a guy who analyzes wind ups, but his looks pretty normal. Pretty explosive in his lower half to get the velocity needed when he's 6' tall. 

I'll give you this quote about Carson Fulmer from Keith Law on his "Just Missed" list from before the season (Jay ranked 61st). "He has a very violent delivery and tends to work too much out of the zone to be a big league starter, so I project him as a reliever, as did many scouts who saw him dealing for the Vanderbilt Commodores before the draft."

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/14731648/kebryan-hayes-prospects-just-missed-top-100-mlb

[bluechipper]

 

Again, the point here was more relating to workload progression and timelines than picking apart small-sample minor-league stats. 

 

Maybe both of these guys are bound for the bullpen. If so, then the Twins still passed up Benintendi, who has clearly developed into one of the game's better OF prospects. The pick just doesn't look very good right now. 

Passing on Benintendi hurts a little, but that was such a weak draft at the top that I don't think you can say it doesn't look good right now. Tyler Jay has a 3.33 ERA  with good K numbers in his first year starting. The injury doesn't sound too serious, so I'm not too worried about him.

[Vanimal46]

 

I'll give you this quote about Carson Fulmer from Keith Law on his "Just Missed" list from before the season (Jay ranked 61st). "He has a very violent delivery and tends to work too much out of the zone to be a big league starter, so I project him as a reliever, as did many scouts who saw him dealing for the Vanderbilt Commodores before the draft."

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/14731648/kebryan-hayes-prospects-just-missed-top-100-mlb

Seems a bit exaggerated by KLaw. What exactly is very violent about this motion?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=9&v=Ee-GEMIXNxo