Article: Pitching Pipeline: What's Next?

[Nick Nelson]

 

Wow, a bit harsh on Jay. This is about what I would have expected for him so he hasn't lost any luster for me. Thought he'd pitch around a 100 innings total.

It is one thing for those other guys to be in bigs already, but that has nothing to do with Jay.

You expected he would physically break down after a few months? Let's not imply that having your season end due to neck/shoulder problems is the same thing as being shut down by a team-imposed inning restriction (which I'm sure would've happened somewhat soon). He has done little to demonstrate his ability to effectively take on a starter's workload, which was basically his big test this year.

[bird]

 

I believe he got sent back down this morning too. Not sure what the White Sox were thinking with him, or what they're thinking with Zach Burdi either. 

 

 

If someone offered me a bet that Tyler Jay would have a better MLB career than Carson Fulmer and that Nick Burdi would end up as a better reliever than Zach, I'd take it. This would be based on absolutely knowledge-free fandom.

[Blackjack]

 

Not sure I'm ready to lump Berrios into this category just yet, and it's a bit of cherry picking when you ignore Sano and Kepler. Berrios has had what... 7 starts?  That MLB jump is hard. Berrios at least looks ready to the extent that he's had plenty of time in the high minors.  Buxton on the other hand... he needs more time in the high minors. period.

I'm not saying Berrios is a bust by any means, its just that its obvious that its going to take months and years before he becomes a top end reliable starter. So then the rest of these 'top' prospects are in AA and lower, its depressing. Pitching is what the Twins desperately need in order to be competitive and most if it is years away.  Depressing.

 

 

[Nick Nelson]

 

This is close to a nitpick, but I'm genuinely curious. B-r.com lists him as 6'3" and 195 lbs. That's not exactly beanpole thin, but it doesn't stand out as anything more than typical. OTOH the photo they have for him looks like the weight could be an underestimate. Any additional insight?

 

Also, as far as durability goes, he did seem to miss some time in 2015. Do we know what that was about?

That's definitely an underestimate on his weight, probably based on several years ago. I'd guess he's carrying 20-30 more pounds. You can see in the image (or these highlights) he is far from a beanpole. The missed time in 2015 was due to a suspension for stimulants. 

[Vanimal46]

 

You expected he would physically break down after a few months? Let's not imply that having your season end due to neck/shoulder problems is the same thing as being shut down by a team-imposed inning restriction (which I'm sure would've happened somewhat soon). He has done little to demonstrate his ability to effectively take on a starter's workload, which was basically his big test this year.

Agreed. Only pitching 5 or more innings in 5 out of 15 starts isn't ideal. That's my biggest pet peeve with Milone this year and the reason I want him gone from the organization. 

I get it, Jay was in his first full season, treating him with kid gloves, etc. For someone who's consistently written about on this site that his ceiling is so high, I had higher hopes for longer outings from him.  

[Blackjack]

 

 

 

Wheeler has never pitched an inning from the bullpen in the minor leagues. If the team doesn't see him as better than marginal, I don't understand why he hasn't gotten experience in the only role he's likely to see in the majors. I trust the scouting eyes that say he lacks impact potential, but his minor league progression says to me he's going to play in the majors eventually, so it might as well be for us, otherwise why are we stringing him along?

The Twins seem to like to teach them at the major league level where games count rather than using the minor leagues. Think Plouffe coming up as a shortstop and all of a sudden its "oh shoot, he can't make the throws".  Polanco -- played all year a 2nd base and when he comes up, "lets see if we can play him at short, we didn't notice he was blocked by Dozier".  Headshaking. 

[Vanimal46]

Food for thought:

Tyler Duffey in his first full season as a starting pitcher pitched 6 or more innings in 11 of 18 starts in A and A+ ball.... Tyler Jay 5 of 15 starts, and the perception is he had a really good year. 

[Han Joelo]

Re: Jay

 

His pitch counts were usually at the 90 mark from what I saw, so his innings totals weren't necessarily the result of getting shelled and pulled early, but rather due to inefficiency. That's still not ideal, but it does frame the story differently. Or, as is often the case, I have my "facts" wrong.

 

Watching the Cardinals debut a couple of 21-22 year old pitchers last week got me wondering--are our guys just not as good, different development philosophy, lack of contention, or all of the above?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Re: Jay

His pitch counts were usually at the 90 mark from what I saw, so his innings totals weren't necessarily the result of getting shelled and pulled early, but rather due to inefficiency. That's still not ideal, but it does frame the story differently. Or, as is often the case, I have my "facts" wrong.

Watching the Cardinals debut a couple of 21-22 year old pitchers last week got me wondering--are our guys just not as good, different development philosophy, lack of contention, or all of the above?

 

the Cardinals have a voodoo pact going, you just can't compare them to the Twins at all. Or, maybe we should have higher expectations for the Twins, your call...

[Nick Nelson]

If you're nitpicking Carson Fulmer based on his initial performance in the majors I think you're kind of missing the point. I'm not saying he's ready to be an ace, nor am I defending Chicago's handling of him, but the fact remains he reached the majors a year after being drafted, is still healthy, and is setting himself up to be a rotation option (if not a given) for 2017.

 

I was skeptical of the decision to draft Jay over him from the very start so admittedly I have my own preconceptions about this situation. 

 

 

Side note: If Jay ultimately turns out to be a top notch lefty in the pen, I still won't see him or his selection as a bust.

Agreed, and this was the redeeming quality of the pick in my mind. Still, when you're a team that needs pitching as badly as the Twins, ending up with a lefty reliever with the #6 pick in the draft is far from an ideal outcome.

[Mike Sixel]

If the number 6 pick in the draft is a RP.....that's not a good outcome for a team that won't pay huge money for FAs, so, I disagree with that being a good outcome.

 

I have no idea how anyone can judge the pick based on this year, though. He was good, if not great, and he's in AA.

[ashbury]

Watching the Cardinals debut a couple of 21-22 year old pitchers last week got me wondering--are our guys just not as good, different development philosophy, lack of contention, or all of the above?

Reyes the 21-year old (22nd birthday in less than 2 weeks) has sported strikeout rates above one per inning all through the minors. They've moved him up rapidly, but nothing super-aggressive given his success. The one lesson, maybe, is at AAA his ERA ain't all that good (PCL tends to run hot), yet they deemed him ready and brought him up.

 

Weaver the 22-year old (23rd birthday next week - detect a pattern?) likewise had mostly 9+ K/9 rates except for an anomalous high-A stint. They've let him basically skip AAA, so this will be very interesting to watch play out.

 

Tuivailala the 23-year old (October baby) has taken slightly longer to reach the majors, also being a strikeout per inning guy essentially every year. He shares with Reyes some mediocre AAA numbers and a call-up to the majors anyway. He's back at AAA now.

 

Mayers the gray-beard 24-year old (December) has less of a K/9 pedigree and this probably explains why it took him this "long" to get a call-up. He's back in AAA too.

 

There's probably something to be learned from their promotion policy for pitching prospects, but more to be learned about getting the performance out of them, or picking wisely. Or maybe if our guys had to pitch in Reno and Salt Lake, our front office would be looking to rescue them from AAA too.

[d-mac]

 

Side note: If Jay ultimately turns out to be a top notch lefty in the pen, I still won't see him or his selection as a bust.

 

Typically, if your top ten pick turns out to only be a reliever, it's usually a bust. 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Sano and Kepler were international signees, not draft picks. For some reason the Twins seem to do okay at signing international talent and are abysmal at selecting and developing from the draft. I don't know what to draw from that but a team like the Twins will never compete without doing well at both.

 

I really don't see how you can draw that conclusion.  Development is development. If they can identify and  develop an international signing, they can identify and develop a draftee.  Coaches don't change between the two.  Player stops don't change (except for a stint in the DSL for some international signings) I think you're missing just how much goes into getting a player from the rookie leagues to the majors. It's not simple.  You're applying standards to the Twins that no major league team can reasonably attain. 

[Steve Lein]

 

You expected he would physically break down after a few months? Let's not imply that having your season end due to neck/shoulder problems is the same thing as being shut down by a team-imposed inning restriction (which I'm sure would've happened somewhat soon). He has done little to demonstrate his ability to effectively take on a starter's workload, which was basically his big test this year.

 

My comment about innings is related to the fact he pitched about 70-80 innings all of last year (college and pros). We all knew there would be a transition and it would probably go slower than we'd like (this is the Twins, after all), and I don't see this season as a failure in that aspect. 

 

Sure, you don't want to see an injury, but I just wouldn't be so worried about Jay at this point.

 

You can be disappointed about the other guys being in the majors already, but it comes off as you holding that against Jay.

[laloesch]

 

It's not exactly a secret that the Twins need better pitching. ...

 

Pretty good summary if you ask me and i don't consider your opinion "debby downer" more like cautious realism.  Mejia could be a steal, but i have never seen him pitch.  Gonsalves is probably the next polished guy with good potential that is close to ready..... and he's a lefty.  Not an especially hard thrower at 90-92, but racking up the strikeouts in Chattanooga averaging 10.2k per 9 over 9 starts.    

 

Agreed on Jay.  Huge gamble by the Twins.  Potential for high reward, but they've tried this whole reliever to starter conversion thing recently on Cederoth and that experiment failed miserably, but will see.  

 

I have been criticized to the "nth" degree for not being super high on Stewart.  Despite his good velocity, he has not induced strikeouts that you would expect from a top pitching prospect progressing through the system.  From what i understand his fastball lacks movement and he relies too heavily on his sinker to try and grind guys out via ground balls.  Sounds like another Gibson or Blackburn clone if you ask me. 

 

In summary.  Twins need more starting pitching prospects. 

Edited August 17, 2016 by ashburyjohn

[Han Joelo]

Reyes the 21-year old (22nd birthday in less than 2 weeks) has sported strikeout rates above one per inning all through the minors. They've moved him up rapidly, but nothing super-aggressive given his success. The one lesson, maybe, is at AAA his ERA ain't all that good (PCL tends to run hot), yet they deemed him ready and brought him up.

 

Weaver the 22-year old (23rd birthday next week - detect a pattern?) likewise had mostly 9+ K/9 rates except for an anomalous high-A stint. They've let him basically skip AAA, so this will be very interesting to watch play out.

 

Tuivailala the 23-year old (October baby) has taken slightly longer to reach the majors, also being a strikeout per inning guy essentially every year. He shares with Reyes some mediocre AAA numbers and a call-up to the majors anyway. He's back at AAA now.

 

Mayers the gray-beard 24-year old (December) has less of a K/9 pedigree and this probably explains why it took him this "long" to get a call-up. He's back in AAA too.

 

There's probably something to be learned from their promotion policy for pitching prospects, but more to be learned about getting the performance out of them, or picking wisely. Or maybe if our guys had to pitch in Reno and Salt Lake, our front office would be looking to rescue them from AAA too.

A few of those guys don't sound all that different from Gonsalves. He seems to have some mental toughness. Anyway, from this armchair, especially given the lack of options, I'd probably give at least Gonsalves a crack this September, and maybe Jorge. I'd have told them by now, too, to see if they crack under the pressure. If they flop, crack for everyone.

[DocBauer]

In regard to Jay turning out as a relief pitcher "only", I'm not saying that will happen. He seems to have the stuff that as he builds strength and endurance, he might be a very good starter. And goodness knows the Twins need front line starters!

 

And while I am not predicting greatness, nor defending or blasting his selection, I do defend him not being a "bust" if he only turns out to be a top reliever. Statistics and commentary I've read and heard in the past indicate that a highly successful draft usually includes 3 players actually making and contributing at the ML level. So if Jay ends up "only" a top notch reliever I will be disappointed, but will not consider him a bust.

[Han Joelo]

Oh, and Meija for sure this year.

[THE DFC]

Assuming Santana is around next year, it's going to be an interesting rotation battle.

 

Molitor has said, per Doogie, that May's going back into the rotation for next year.  

 

I have no idea what to make of Gibson, Santiago or Duffey at this point (I wish Duffey would go to the pen, personally).

 

I think Berrios, Mejia and Gonsalves all deserve a shot, too.

 

Assuming by the end of the year we move Santana, I'm actually excited about the prospects of:

 

Berrios

Mejia

Gonsalves

May

 

With these guys battling for the 5th spot:  Stewart/Jay/Romero

 

Am I nuts?

[ThejacKmp]

This doesn't mention the Thorpedo. I know he hasn't pitched in a game since 2014 at this point and that's not ideal but the kid is still only 20. He's throwing now and if he gets a few starts in Cedar Rapids this year and has a good spring, he could be looking at a full season in A+/AA where he's 21 the whole time. He'd need a ton of success to be a September 2018 call up for the Twins but he deserves some mention with Romero when we talk about 2019 Twins opening day pitchers (Berrios, Gonsalves, Romero, Thorpe, Stewart/Jay/Jorge? A boy can dream!). Tons of upside and a really nice K rate in the low minors.

[DJL44]

Highest upside arm in the system could be Lewis Thorpe. People are excited about Romero, but Thorpe was better before surgery than Fernando.

[Vanimal46]

The positive here is there are options. I believe 6 or 7 names have been mentioned on this thread already as potential high ceiling arms. 

The Twins desperately need 1-2 out of this group to be successful. I don't care which one of the 6-7 names does it, it just needs to be done. Otherwise these last 3-4 years have been for nothing. 

[Thrylos]

I have to agree with this ranking, because it is a pipeline (ie. the order they will appear in the majors) vs. a prospect (ie. who has the potential to be a better pitcher ranking.)

 

Mejia will be up in less than a month.   I'd probably add Wheeler second, because (if still with the club) he might be MLB-ready next season.  I'd also add Aaron Slegers to the mix.  Probably after Gonsalves. 

 

So something like Mejia-Wheeler-Gonsalves-Slegers-Jay-Stewart-Jorge, with Romero and (Randy) Rosario on their heels.  

 

Pending trades of course.  And that is the kicker:

 

If you add Duffey and Berios (who are borderline ready this season) to the equation, the Twins have a whole lot of pitchers in their pipeline, and come 2018 there will be a log jam (with the first 4 in that list, plus the 2 mentioned here, plus Gibson and May and Santana and Hughes).  10 pitchers for 5 spots

 

Some of them will not pan out.  But the Twins should start thinking about trading some, before they do not pan out... 

Edited August 17, 2016 by Thrylos

[d-mac]

 

Pretty good summary if you ask me and i don't consider your opinion "debby downer" more like cautious realism.  Mejia could be a steal, but i have never seen him pitch.  Gonsalves is probably the next polished guy with good potential that is close to ready..... and he's a lefty.  Not an especially hard thrower at 90-92, but racking up the strikeouts in Chattanooga averaging 10.2k per 9 over 9 starts.    

 

Agreed on Jay.  Huge gamble by the Twins.  Potential for high reward, but they've tried this whole reliever to starter conversion thing recently on Cederoth and that experiment failed miserably, but will see.  

 

I have been criticized to the "nth" degree for not being super high on Stewart.  Despite his good velocity, he has not induced strikeouts that you would expect from a top pitching prospect progressing through the system.  From what i understand his fastball lacks movement and he relies too heavily on his sinker to try and grind guys out via ground balls.  Sounds like another Gibson or Blackburn clone if you ask me. 

 

In summary.  Twins need more starting pitching prospects. 

 

Stewart is actually pitching worse than Blackburn or Gibson in the minors. Gibson had/has a plus slider and averaged about 8.5 K/9 and Blackburn walked fewer batters. 

[laloesch]

 

This doesn't mention the Thorpedo. I know he hasn't pitched in a game since 2014 at this point and that's not ideal but the kid is still only 20. He's throwing now and if he gets a few starts in Cedar Rapids this year and has a good spring, he could be looking at a full season in A+/AA where he's 21 the whole time. He'd need a ton of success to be a September 2018 call up for the Twins but he deserves some mention with Romero when we talk about 2019 Twins opening day pitchers (Berrios, Gonsalves, Romero, Thorpe, Stewart/Jay/Jorge? A boy can dream!). Tons of upside and a really nice K rate in the low minors.

 

yeah i thought about him as well.  Last i heard his rehab was not going super well.  Progress very slowly.

[Thrylos]

 

 2019 Twins opening day pitchers (Berrios, Gonsalves, Romero, Thorpe, Stewart/Jay/Jorge? A boy can dream!). 

 

Hughes, Duffey, May, and Gibson are still under contract in 2019 and Santana has a option... 

 

Not to rain on your parade of dreams, but... 

Edited August 17, 2016 by Thrylos

[laloesch]

 

Stewart is actually pitching worse than Blackburn or Gibson in the minors. Gibson had/has a plus slider and averaged about 8.5 K/9 and Blackburn walked fewer batters. 

 

I

 

I have to agree with this ranking, because it is a pipeline (ie. the order they will appear in the majors) vs. a prospect (ie. who has the potential to be a better pitcher ranking.)

 

Mejia will be up in less than a month.   I'd probably add Wheeler second, because (if still with the club) he might be MLB-ready next season.  I'd also add Aaron Slegers to the mix.  Probably after Gonsalves. 

 

So something like Mejia-Wheeler-Gonsalves-Slegers-Jay-Stewart-Jorge, with Romero and (Randy) Rosario on their heels.  

 

Pending trades of course.  And that is the kicker:

 

If you add Duffey and Berios (who are borderline ready this season) to the equation, the Twins have a whole lot of pitchers in their pipeline, and come 2018 there will be a log jam (with the first 4 in that list, plus the 2 mentioned here, plus Gibson and May and Santana and Hughes).  10 pitchers for 5 spots

 

Some of them will not pan out.  But the Twins should start thinking about trading some, before they do not pan out... 

 

Exactly.  Including the prospects that appear fringe.  Don't wait until they have no value in AAA.

[laloesch]

 

Hughes, Duffey, May, and Gibson are still under contract in 2019 and Santana has a option... 

 

Not to rain on your parade of dreams, but... 

 

True.  But the jury is out on Hughes.  There's a very good possibility he never pitches another major league game in his career let alone starting.  From what i understand he has a frayed labrum which ended Radke's career in addition to the “thoracic outlet syndrome” he had surgery for?  From what i understand it's a pinching of the nerves and vascular tissues that pass underneath the clavical (collar bone) and has no feeling in his arm when he raises his arm over his head?  Had surgery to hopefully correct this.

 

Duffey is a two pitch starter who needs to learn a third pitch and use it effectively otherwise his starting career could be very short. Arbitration eligible 2019.  

 

The Twins appear to have abandoned the possibility of May as a starter for whatever reason nobody understands.  Arbitration eligible 2018.

 

Gibson has been god AWFUL, downright putrid this season.  I think he's ARb 1 this season?  To be perfectly honest i hope the Twins non tender him this off season.  He just flat out stinks.  

 

Just my opinion there will be plenty of room in the rotation next season especially with Ryan out of the way.

Edited August 17, 2016 by laloesch

[Deduno Abides]

I think he's harsh on Tyler Jay like others here - he was going to take some time to make the transition. Also, some teams promote more aggressively, as the White Sox have demonstrated.

 

But it's also a big concern that two players drafted immediately afterward are already in the majors. 

 

Indeed, many of the players drafted during the team's run of awfulness have yet to make the majors, or even AAA, or be effective once they get there (Berrios and Buxton). Meanwhile, teams like the Texas Rangers, the New York Mets and others are thriving with recent draftees.

 

We can't get a new GM and regime fast enough ...

 

I agree completely about a new management team, but remember that the Rangers took Dillon Tate two selections BEFORE the Twins took Tyler Jay and their only (I think) drafted pitcher who has started a material number of games is Derek Holland, who was taken in the 25th round in 2006. Nick Martinez (18th round, 2011) has five starts. Chi Chi Gonzalez (1st round, 2011), with three very bad starts, including two losses against the Twins, is their only recent draftee to start for them this year.