Article: Pitching Pipeline: What's Next?

[Nick Nelson]

It's not exactly a secret that the Twins need better pitching. They have allowed the most runs in the American League by a huge margin, hanging an above-average offense out to try.

 

Now that Jose Berrios has joined the rotation (hopefully for good), what else is on the way?Berrios has been uneven, at best, in his initial exposure to the majors. Hopefully he'll find his way. Regardless of what happens with the electric youngster, the Twins are going to need much more quality pitching in order be considered a credible contender within the coming year or two.

 

Here's an in-depth look at five prospects that could be considered the next wave, when combining closeness and caliber. At the end, we'll review some conclusions that can be drawn from where things stand with the foremost incoming arms.

 

Adalberto Mejia, LHP (23) - Class-AAA Rochester

 

Mejia, who came over in the Eduardo Nunez trade, was a particularly important addition because he slots into a Rochester rotation that is otherwise devoid of potential impact talent. Jason Wheeler, Pat Dean and Logan Darnell may get some looks but they are marginal big-leaguers. Mejia could really be something.

 

He's a big, sturdy, durable left-hander with good breaking stuff and an improving strikeout rate. He has made 10 starts at at Triple-A and has mostly looked up to the task, commanding the zone and inducing plenty of swings and misses. He is closest to the majors among Minnesota's higher-tier pitching prospects. Most believe he'll end up being a mid-rotation type if he pans out, though.

 

Stephen Gonsalves, LHP (22) - Class-AA Chattanooga

 

While Mejia is closest to the big leagues, he is not Minnesota's top pitching prospect. That honor, almost indisputably, goes to Gonsalves at this point. The southpaw ranked sixth on our preseason Twins top prospect rankings and has done nothing but enhance his luster this summer. He made short work of the Florida State League in his second stint with the Miracle (2.33 ERA, 0.96 WHIP in 11 starts) before moving up to Chattanooga and not missing a beat (2.01 ERA, 1.19 WHIP in nine starts).

 

The jump from Single-A to Double-A is considered perhaps the toughest for prospects, especially for a pitcher like Gonsalves who is said to lack a quality breaking ball. The lefty is simply dominating from his 6'5" frame and has been on an insane run lately with a 4-0 record and 0.80 ERA over his past seven starts.

 

In total this year, he has held opponents to a .187 average with three homers in 119 innings.

 

The fast-rising 22-year-old is prone to command issues that will likely become more pronounced as he starts regularly facing more patient hitters (by his own admission he got some help in his last outing – a complete game victory – because opponents "kept swinging at anything close to the zone") but that's not unusual for someone his age with his body type.

 

Gonsalves is the kind of guy that scouts would describe early on as "projectable," meaning that he had big room for improvement with his tall lanky build and improving feel for pitching. He is now turning into exactly the pitcher that evaluators optimistically projected. His ceiling exceeds any other starter in the system and it wouldn't be a huge shock if he got a look this September.

 

Tyler Jay, LHP (22) - Class-AA Chattanooga

 

Jay was a gamble. With the sixth pick in last June's draft, the Twins took the Illinois closer just ahead of Andrew Benintendi, who is currently batting .350 for the Red Sox, and Carson Fulmer, who mowed through the minors and has been on the White Sox roster for a month.

 

Rather than go after the dynamic offensive talent or the established collegiate starter, the Twins decided to pick Jay with hopes he could successfully transition into a rotation piece. The results, thus far, have not been great.

 

After signing, Jay went to rookie ball and finished out his season in his familiar relief role. This year the switch to starting got underway, and right now there is no indication that it will stick. Jay pitched well, albeit not amazingly, for 13 starts in Fort Myers before moving up to Chattanooga. There, he made two starts and a few relief appearances before being shut down amidst some pain. He was diagnosed only with nerve irritation in his neck, which is mostly good news but still not entirely encouraging.

 

In 15 starts between Single-A and Double-A this year, Jay pitched past the fifth only five times. He never exceeded 100 pitches. And at the end of July, with 83 total innings thrown, he came down with neck and shoulder problems. At the very least, this looks like it is going to be an extended project. Meanwhile, the players that Minnesota passed up to select Jay have rocketed to the big leagues and are already auditioning for prominent roles in 2017.

 

Not ideal.

 

Kohl Stewart, RHP (21) - Class-AA Chattanooga

 

When the Twins made Stewart the top high school player selected in the 2012 draft, no one really balked at the decision. He was widely viewed as the best prep arm in the nation. He lived up to his billing with a nice debut in rookie ball, and with a little projection, one could envision the athletic teenager growing into a frontline starting stalwart.

 

But he really hasn't developed. Sequencing, approach and fastball movement have enabled Stewart to continually achieve good results while climbing the minor-league ladder, but his peripherals have lagged behind. Strikeout-to-walk ratio isn't everything but it says a great deal about the sustainability of good performance and Stewart's 1.90 career mark is flat-out unimpressive, even when you ignore the expectations and pedigree. A 14.9 percent overall strikeout rate in full-season baseball just doesn't equate to a premium prospect, and that's mostly why Stewart has fallen off every list.

 

He's still young – one of the younger starting pitchers in the Southern League at 21, in fact – so there is time for Stewart to improve and find a way to overpower pro hitters. The innate ability is there, I think. But he's not really one to count on at this point.

 

Felix Jorge, RHP (22) - Class-AAA Chattanooga

 

A skinny hurler who also has never missed many bats, Jorge is not any analyst's idea of a premier prospect talent, but he deserves mention because of his consistent penchant for getting outs. Like the three above him on this list, Jorge has reached the Double-A level by age 22, a noteworthy feat. He was fantastic earlier in Fort Myers, posting a 1.55 ERA in 14 starts, and has performed well enough with the Lookouts following a rocky debut.

 

In the past, Terry Ryan has compared Jorge to current Twins starter Ervin Santana, noting similiarities in their build and fluid mechanics. Given his youth and sterling results – he has a 2.68 ERA in 278 innings dating back to the start of 2015 – Jorge demands some attention, but he has tallied a lackluster 213 strikeouts during that span. In order to become a real factor in the rotation conversation over the next couple of years, he's got to find a way to start missing some bats.

 

SUMMARY

 

Berrios was the clear prize of the Twins pitching prospect pool. The jury is still very much out on him based on his stunningly poor early results in the majors, but of course there is plenty of time left.

 

His troubling transition increases the urgency of finding potential rotation-fronting talent. The Twins will head into 2017 with few reliable commodities. While the organization could certainly be worse off with their top upcoming pitching talent than the five names listed above, especially after graduating the top arm, none of them realistically boast No. 1 or No. 2 starter upside, other than maybe Gonsalves.

 

The free agent market for starting pitching this winter is lacking at the high end, especially with Stephen Strasburg inking an extension in Washington. Options will be limited for finding true impact arms. This is why I feel that the Twins need to consider a major shakeup via trade – such as trading Brian Dozier this offseason – in order to infuse more pitching promise into the system.

 

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[sorney]

Sups depressing....It feels like it's been so long since the Twins have produced same pitching studs....

[NoCal]

Carson Fulmer has an era of 8.40 and 5.4 walks per 9 innings. Probably about what Tyler Jay would have if the Twins rushed him as much as the Sox pushed Fulmer.

[Han Joelo]

I really want Romero to be on this list. Not saying he should, but he's only a half step behind.

[Monkeypaws]

Beats having Dan Serafini and Jay Bell as your studs in waiting, or Ryan Mills.

 

They've produced quality here and there, Erickson, Baker, Slowey, Garza....

 

Internally I'd call the current system pitching rich, compared to, well, pretty much any other era of Twins baseball.

[Steve Lein]

Wow, a bit harsh on Jay. This is about what I would have expected for him so he hasn't lost any luster for me. Thought he'd pitch around a 100 innings total.

 

It is one thing for those other guys to be in bigs already, but that has nothing to do with Jay.

[John Kelsey]

 

I really want Romero to be on this list. Not saying he should, but he's only a half step behind.

 

Romero should be on this list. I'd have him as the Twins second best SP prospect behind only Gonsalves, but I suppose he's not quite as close to the majors as the others.  

Edited August 17, 2016 by Jaykay

[FormerMinnasotan]

I really can't wait to see what Gonsalves can do in the majors. I doubt we will see him this year, but I expect we will see him at sometime next year. Honestly, judging by his rapid adaptation from A+ to AA ball (he has transitioned way better than even

Jose Berrios did in 2014), I think Gonsalves will have some rough times adjusting, but he has everything going for him to adjust quicker. I mean to be fair Berrios even in the minors could be homer prone if he didn't have command of his pitches. Gonsalves? His career high for homers given up in a season is 4(!). Shoot in his first 3 starts in Ft Myers he gave up 2 of his 3 homers this season. Plus Gonsalves strikes opponents out just as well as Berrios.

Edited August 17, 2016 by FormerMinnasotan

[SF Twins Fan]

Talk about a debbie downer, my god.  What does Gonsalves have to do to be thought of as a number 1 or 2 in a rotation?  Tyler Jay is in what his first full season of pro ball and his first real season of starting and you're basically calling him a bust.  Andrew Benintendi has 33 at bats - let's wait and see how he does the rest of the season and into next season before we hail him the greatest thing since sliced bread.  Have we already forgot what happened to Santana, Vargas and Rosario after their success when they were first called up.  Felix Jorge has dominated every level he's pitched at and is only 22 years old.

 

Lets see how these guys all finish the season.  This crop of pitching is by far the best group the Twins have ever had coming up together.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Romero should be on this list. I'd have him as the Twins second best SP prospect behind only Gonsalves, but I suppose he's not quite as close to the majors as the others.

Agreed! As of now IMO, Romero has a higher ceiling than Gonsalves or even Jose Berrios at this point. I believe as long as health isn't an issue Romero could be a bonafide ace. His stuff is amazing, plus the command and control are already great. I look forward to see how much progress he makes next year.

[jsteve96]

Totally off topic but,

 

I was trying to figure out how the Twins could copy the Cubs success after having a similar 2016 to cubs 2014 before the break out.. I realized its not happening until 2 or 3 of these guys are in the rotation. the Bats will be there but we need to grab Ramos like Cubs did Hayward.. Trade Ervin for a AA or AAA top pitching prospect with 1 or 2 potential then just wait it out until a couple of Berrios/Gonsalves/Mejia/Romero are shutting opponents down.. with no free agent pitchers, theres no chance Twins get more than 80 wins. get the big 3 in rotation then 2018 grab one of: Arrieta, Bumgarner, Cueto, Darvish, Danny Duffy

[DocBauer]

Agreed this is the best looking group of pitching prospects. all at once, that we've seen in a very long time. And Romero could be added to the list, though he is a little further away.

 

Also wonder. Nick, if you didn't need a caffeine intake before writing, lol.Jay pitched pretty well this year, very well at times, in his first "full" season, while making the transition to starter, and reached AAA.

 

There are definitely questions still surrounding Stewart. But he showed real progress at Ft Myers the first half, and flashes at times in AA. And while the jury is still very much out on him, he's very young and still learning. I'm actually higher on him now than I was last year.

 

Side note: If Jay ultimately turns out to be a top notch lefty in the pen, I still won't see him or his selection as a bust.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Wow, a bit harsh on Jay. This is about what I would have expected for him so he hasn't lost any luster for me. Thought he'd pitch around a 100 innings total.

It is one thing for those other guys to be in bigs already, but that has nothing to do with Jay.

Completely agree. While I agree that Gonsalves is the higher prospect at this point, Jay's upside is probably equal or almost equal to Gonsalves. Let's see how he recovers from the injury, but his stats in A+ after starting for the first time ever were quite good. His two starts at AA were not great, but (1) he may have been feeling the neck issues, and (2) as Nick himself said, the jump from A+ to AA is the hardest one for pitchers. The only concern I have for Jay is really the injury. If he recovers well from that, with his raw stuff he should easily still be considered a top 100 prospect.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I really can't wait to see what Gonsalves can do in the majors. I doubt we will see him this year, but I expect we will see him at sometime next year. Honestly, judging by his rapid adaptation from A+ to AA ball (he has transitioned way better than even
Jose Berrios did in 2014), I think Gonsalves will have some rough times adjusting, but he has everything going for him to adjust quicker. I mean to be fair Berrios even in the minors could be homer prone if he didn't have command of his pitches. Gonsalves? His career high for homers given up in a season is 4(!). Shoot in his first 3 starts in Ft Myers he gave up 2 of his 3 homers this season. Plus Gonsalves strikes opponents out just as well as Berrios.

 

Interesting thing about Gonsalves though is that he's a fly ball pitcher. I'm really curious what he's doing differently that keeps the ball in the park. For the talk of a lack of quality breaking ball, or FB too straight, hitters don't seem to be able to put his pitches over the fence.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Carson Fulmer has an era of 8.40 and 5.4 walks per 9 innings. Probably about what Tyler Jay would have if the Twins rushed him as much as the Sox pushed Fulmer.

 

I believe he got sent back down this morning too. Not sure what the White Sox were thinking with him, or what they're thinking with Zach Burdi either. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Wow, a bit harsh on Jay. This is about what I would have expected for him so he hasn't lost any luster for me. Thought he'd pitch around a 100 innings total.

It is one thing for those other guys to be in bigs already, but that has nothing to do with Jay.

 

Yeah, he threw like 75 innings this year, so he got to the innings count they wanted him to get to as a starter. In my opinion, he had a very nice transition to pro baseball and to full-time starting. He struggled once he got to AA, but that could likely be attributed to the neck pain. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Romero should be on this list. I'd have him as the Twins second best SP prospect behind only Gonsalves, but I suppose he's not quite as close to the majors as the others.  

 

Yeah, when I'm coming up with my Top Prospect rankings after the season, I'm going to go back and forth about 1000 times on who the Twins top pitching prospect is. 

 

Gonsalves has been terrific, minus some control issues.

Jay has a higher upside, probably, but the transition to starter isn't going to make it easy.

Romero has the highest ceiling, but he just has so few innings above the GCL that they need to be careful with him.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Agreed! As of now IMO, Romero has a higher ceiling than Gonsalves or even Jose Berrios at this point. I believe as long as health isn't an issue Romero could be a bonafide ace. His stuff is amazing, plus the command and control are already great. I look forward to see how much progress he makes next year.

 

I guess I'm not seeing this. It strikes me more as a statement of hype. The two are the same age, and Gonsalves is sitting in AA instead of A ball (yes, I know an injury was there).  Results are a mixed bag.  Both limit homeruns (with Romero slightly better).  Gonsalves gets more Ks.  Romero has less walks.  WHIPs thus far are nearly identical.  Not that Romero isn't a bad prospect, but I'm really not sure just how much higher said ceiling is.

[Taildragger8791]

A number of pitching prospects look promising for a change, but after the number of faceplants we've witnessed I can't put too much faith in even dominant MiLB results right now. Especially when the Twins have been so poor at drafting/developing starters for decades. Until it happens I won't assume anything more than #4/#5 production and I'd still be looking to add a frontline starter from outside the organization for next year, if possible. The offense and bullpen have an opportunity to be league average or better next year and I'd rather not squander another season with a trainwreck rotation that's waiting on talent or is forcing unproductive prospects into it.

 

Make guys force their way into the rotation with excellence and let's go win some games. If they're as good as people say they'll make it and we'll have an embarrassment of riches for a change. I know that may be an unrealistic fan's perspective but I'm tired of failed expectations and can't be sold on promise anymore.

Edited August 17, 2016 by Taildragger8791

[Blackjack]

Kind of depressing since we're seeing how poorly our highly rated prospects Buxton and Berrios have done, none of these lower rated players can reasonably be expected to help the Twins any time soon. As Nick said, trading Dozier for pitching should be a top priority.  Dozier won't be a factor when the Twins are finally competitive.

 

[mazeville]

I think he's harsh on Tyler Jay like others here - he was going to take some time to make the transition. Also, some teams promote more aggressively, as the White Sox have demonstrated.

 

But it's also a big concern that two players drafted immediately afterward are already in the majors. 

 

Indeed, many of the players drafted during the team's run of awfulness have yet to make the majors, or even AAA, or be effective once they get there (Berrios and Buxton). Meanwhile, teams like the Texas Rangers, the New York Mets and others are thriving with recent draftees.

 

We can't get a new GM and regime fast enough ...

[beckmt]

 

Kind of depressing since we're seeing how poorly our highly rated prospects Buxton and Berrios have done, none of these lower rated players can reasonably be expected to help the Twins any time soon. As Nick said, trading Dozier for pitching should be a top priority.  Dozier won't be a factor when the Twins are finally competitive.

 

Dozier is not going to bring a difference maker in pitching unless you are willing to take the risk of an A ball pitcher or two with very good upside.  World has changed and even the top money teams do not trade great prospects for everyday players.

I would use 2017 as a ground to see a number of prospect pitchers in the upper levels of the system, including with the Twins.  Based on what I saw, I would then consider spending the dollars for a #1 or #2 and maybe both in the 2017 - 2018 winter.  Twins have Mauer's contract coming off after the 2018 season so should be able to afford 1 top flight starter if not 2, as most of the Twins onfield roster should be cheaper until 2020 - 2021.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Kind of depressing since we're seeing how poorly our highly rated prospects Buxton and Berrios have done, none of these lower rated players can reasonably be expected to help the Twins any time soon. As Nick said, trading Dozier for pitching should be a top priority.  Dozier won't be a factor when the Twins are finally competitive.

 

Not sure I'm ready to lump Berrios into this category just yet, and it's a bit of cherry picking when you ignore Sano and Kepler. Berrios has had what... 7 starts?  That MLB jump is hard. Berrios at least looks ready to the extent that he's had plenty of time in the high minors.  Buxton on the other hand... he needs more time in the high minors. period.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

 

But it's also a big concern that two players drafted immediately afterward are already in the majors. 

 

 

 

I don't get this reasoning at all.  Everyone knew Jay had to transition from the pen to a starter, which his going to slow that whole ascent.  I'm not sure this is a litmus test for anything. Those other two were drafted higher b/c their teams knew they could get there quick. The same cannot be said for Jay, who was drafted more for his ceiling than a quick rise.

[ashbury]

Adalberto Mejia, LHP (23) - Class-AAA Rochester

He's a big, sturdy, durable left-hander

This is close to a nitpick, but I'm genuinely curious. B-r.com lists him as 6'3" and 195 lbs. That's not exactly beanpole thin, but it doesn't stand out as anything more than typical. OTOH the photo they have for him looks like the weight could be an underestimate. Any additional insight?

 

Also, as far as durability goes, he did seem to miss some time in 2015. Do we know what that was about?

 

I will not question his left-handedness. You're welcome.

Jason Wheeler, Pat Dean and Logan Darnell may get some looks but they are marginal big-leaguers.

Wheeler has never pitched an inning from the bullpen in the minor leagues. If the team doesn't see him as better than marginal, I don't understand why he hasn't gotten experience in the only role he's likely to see in the majors. I trust the scouting eyes that say he lacks impact potential, but his minor league progression says to me he's going to play in the majors eventually, so it might as well be for us, otherwise why are we stringing him along?

[Taildragger8791]

 

Not sure I'm ready to lump Berrios into this category just yet, and it's a bit of cherry picking when you ignore Sano and Kepler. Berrios has had what... 7 starts?  That MLB jump is hard. Berrios at least looks ready to the extent that he's had plenty of time in the high minors.  Buxton on the other hand... he needs more time in the high minors. period.

 

Sano and Kepler were international signees, not draft picks. For some reason the Twins seem to do okay at signing international talent and are abysmal at selecting and developing from the draft. I don't know what to draw from that but a team like the Twins will never compete without doing well at both.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is close to a nitpick,.....

Wheeler has never pitched an inning from the bullpen in the minor leagues. If the team doesn't see him as better than marginal, I don't understand why he hasn't gotten experience in the only role he's likely to see in the majors. I trust the scouting eyes that say he lacks impact potential, but his minor league progression says to me he's going to play in the majors eventually, so it might as well be for us, otherwise why are we stringing him along?

 

Well, on that last parapgrah, the Twins hardly ever moved a guy in the past until way too late (or not at all). It's a question some of the posters here have raised before. Taylor Rogers, for example.

[Vanimal46]

I appreciate the article. Helps lower the expectations a bit... I have high aspirations for these players, but the expectations of all of these pitchers having incredibly high ceilings and being less than a year away I don't think is realistic.  

[tobi0040]

This was a good article. I did find it comical when you brought up Strasburg resigning and the impact on the FA market. I had this visual of that news breaking and the Twins FO finding out and being just devastated!

[Nick Nelson]

 

Talk about a debbie downer, my god.  What does Gonsalves have to do to be thought of as a number 1 or 2 in a rotation?  Tyler Jay is in what his first full season of pro ball and his first real season of starting and you're basically calling him a bust.  

1) I didn't not "basically" call Jay a bust. I pointed out factually that his physical transition to a starter's workload isn't going very well thus far, and the optics aren't great when you look at the pitchers taken after him. This article is a snapshot of where things stand with a bunch of 22-year-old pitchers so no one is being called a bust.

2) Not sure where you come away from my Gonsalves writeup with the view of it being negative. Saying a pitching prospect has the ceiling of "maybe a No. 1 or 2" is a compliment, not a disparagement. This isn't the be-all end-all, but heading into this year Gonsalves had never appeared on a Top 100 list from Baseball America, MLB.com or Baseball Prospectus. That's a lot of different prospects evaluators and scouts who haven't seen the ace-like potential despite the big numbers. If you think failing to inflate these guys with unrealistic hype makes me a "debbie downer" so be it, but I'd say you're the one who isn't seeing it clearly.