Article: Big Steps Forward

[Seth Stohs]

One of the fun things about following the minor league season each year and over several years is to see which players take the biggest strides forward from year to year. That can mean different things to different people, of course. It not only can mean jumping up prospect rankings, but it could mean guys who needed to play well to remain in the organization for another year.

 

For instance, a guy like Lachlan Wells was ranked in the high 30s or low 40s in many Top 50 Twins prospect lists. Now, he should be in most people’s Top 25 Twins prospects after pitching very well since his promotion to Cedar Rapids as a 19 year old.My focus is going to be on eight guys, four hitters and four pitchers, who have gone from relative unknowns before the season to guys who may find themselves in the Twins future. Please feel free to add other names to this list, guys who have taken a big step forward in 2016.

 

FOUR HITTERS

 

LUIS ARRAEZ - 19 - 2B

 

As an 18 year old in the GCL last year, Arraez hit .306/.377/.388 (.765) with 15 doubles. It was a solid season and MiLB.com listed him as the second baseman on their Twins post-season all-star team. He played in the Venezuelan Winter League. My assumption was that he would spend the 2016 season in extended spring training before going to Elizabethton. Instead, he began the season in Cedar Rapids. He began the season playing one in three games. It took about a week for him to be in the lineup almost every day. He has just kept hitting. In fact, now he’s hitting third or fourth in the Kernels lineup every game. He hasn’t stopped hitting. He’s now hitting .344/.383/.450 (.833) with 27 doubles, three triples and three home runs. He doesn’t walk a lot, but he also doesn’t strike out often. Before the season, he would have ranked in the 40s in my prospect lists, and now he’s easily in the Top 25 prospects or so.

 

ZACH GRANITE - 23 - OF

 

Granite has always been thought of as a professional, top-of-the-order type of hitter. He had a difficult, injury-plagued 2014 season in Cedar Rapids and played in just 21 games. That’s where he started 2015, but he moved up to Ft. Myers on May 1st because he had a great month. He did all right at Ft. Myers, but he hit .249/.328/.304 (.632) with ten doubles, four triples and a home run. He began 2016 in AA Chattanooga, maybe due to injury to others, but he has been the team’s leadoff hitter from day one. He has hit .295/.351/.385 (.736) with 14 doubles, seven triples and four home runs. He leads the Southern League in stolen bases with 42. He has as many walks as strikeouts. He has put himself into consideration for a 40-man roster spot this offseason.

 

NELSON MOLINA - 21 - IF

 

Molina was the Twins 11th round pick in 2013 draft out of high school in Puerto Rico. He spent two years in the Gulf Coast League where he hit .110 and .243.Last year in Elizabethton, he hit .207. There are rules that say an organization can only have so many players in the rookie leagues for a fourth year, so this was an important year for Molina. He began the season in extended spring training, but the Kernels needed an infielder in late April so he was summoned to Iowa. I’ve always said, at 6-3 and 175 pounds, he looks the part. Molina looks like what you would envision a professional shortstop to look like. At the plate, he has a balanced stance with a nice swing. It just didn’t come together offensively for him in the rookie leagues. However, he has grown both in terms of strength and maturity, and he is seeing the benefits on the field. In 74 games with the Kernels, he is hitting .304/.378/.375 (.754) with 11 doubles, two triples and a home run. He’s still got room to grow, but experiencing the success has to be a huge boost in confidence.

 

RYAN WALKER - 23 - IF

 

He was the Twins 18th round pick in 2013 out of Texas-Arlington. He spent most of that year in E-Town, though he moved up to Cedar Rapids for a week or so at the end of the season. In 76 games in 2014 in Cedar Rapids, he hit .239/.296/.299 (.595). In 2015, he played 83 games in Ft. Myers and hit .269/.311/.312 (.623). He began this year in Ft. Myers and hit just .262 in 24 games before being promoted to AA Chattanooga. He’s played all three infield positions and hit .287/.357/.368 (.725). In talking to him before the season, he pointed out that he worked really hard to add a lot of weight in the offseason. He got up to 185 and hoped to maintain it throughout the season, something players struggle to do. He has always been above average defensively in the infield, but he has improved offensively as he has moved up to AA this year.

 

FOUR PITCHERS

 

DJ BAXENDALE - 25 - RHP

 

Baxendale was the Twins 12th round pick in 2012 out of Arkansas. He’s primarily been a starter. He moved quickly from the Midwest League to the Florida State League. He moved quickly to AA, but he experienced a lot of struggles in AA the last coupele of seasons. This year, he made 14 starts for the Lookouts and went 6-7 with a 3.44 ERA and made the All-Star team. Immediately following the game, he moved up to AAA Rochester. He was put into the bullpen and has been very good since. He has a 1.61 ERA in 17 appearances for the Red Wings. His pitches work very well out of the bullpen. He can add a couple of ticks to his fastball, and his slider can be devastating. He can be a decent starter, but he has a chance to be a quality relief pitcher.

 

SAM CLAY - 23 - LHP

 

Clay was the Twins 4th round pick in 2014 out of Georgia Tech. He began last season in Cedar Rapids, but he really struggled. Through nine games and 18 innings pitched, he had 19 strikeouts but 18 walks. He was sent back to EST where he worked on his control as a starter. He ended the season with three appearances in Cedar Rapids. Clay was much improved when the 2016 season started. In 14 starts for the Kernels, he went 5-4 with a 3.39 ERA. He still is walking too many, but he is striking out over a batter per inning. After starting the All-Star Game in the Midwest League, he was promoted to Ft. Myers where he’s had some ups and downs, some good starts and some bad starts but he continues to get strikeouts.

 

FERNANDO ROMERO - 21 - RHP

 

Romero became a prospect in 2013 when he posted a 1.60 ERA in the Gulf Coast League as an 18-year-old. Reports had him throwing a fastball in the mid-90s. In 2014, he began in EST, but he was promoted to Cedar Rapids where he made three starts. Unfortunately, he experienced elbow pain and needed Tommy John. He had the surgery in 2014, and during his rehab in 2015, he needed knee surgery which cost him more time. This spring, he was hitting 94 and 95 consistently. In mid-May, he was sent back to Cedar Rapids. He needed just five starts before he was promoted to Ft. Myers where he posted a 2.39 ERA in nine starts (49 innings). His fastball is touching 97 and 98 mph with regularity. He’s got three quality pitches that have a chance to be plus pitches. He gets strikeouts. He has really good control. He was a Top 30 prospect coming into the season. He was my #7 Twins prospect at midseason, and he will most likely be a Top 5 Twins prospect following the season.

 

JASON WHEELER - 25 - LHP

 

Wheeler was the Twins eighth-round pick in 2011 out of Loyola-Marymount. He worked up the system, one year at a time. Following the 2014 season, the left-hander was added to the Twins 40 man roster. He began 2015 in Rochester, but when he was 1-7 with a 6.58 ERA in 15 starts before being sent back to Chattanooga. He went 4-3 with a 3.92 ERA with the Lookouts and was removed from the 40-man roster. After that, he was really good. In fact, he was the MVP of the Southern League Championship series. He began this season in AA, but after posting a 1.88 ERA in four starts, he moved up to Rochester. He has gone 9-4 with a 3.44 ERA and was the International League’s Starting Pitcher in the AAA All-Star Game. As frustrating as 2015 was for Wheeler, 2016 puts him back on the radar. He’s warranted consideration for a September call up.

 

So there are eight players who have made the most out of their 2016 season and have taken a step forward in their careers. Not all of these guys will show up on Top 30 prospect lists, but they have had very strong seasons. Which prospects make your list?

 

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[Thrylos]

Hard to argue with any of those names, but got to add a handful more:

 

Daniel Palka.  I personally had him ahead of Walker when the Twins acquired him, but arguably he jumped to a top 5-10 type of prospect this season.

 

Huascar Ynoa.  His debut in the states as an 18 year old has been much better than that at the DSL as a 17 year old.  His control improved by leaps and bounds and he is really dominating the GCL

 

Trevor Hildenberger.  He has been on the second group of relievers in the Twins' organization in my mind (with the Jones' and Williams) but this season he moved to the first class with Burdi, Chargois and likely ahead of Reed.  A bit older for his teams, he mind end up being Anthony Slama or Rob Delaney, but very impressive season

 

Mike Theofanopoulos.  See above but from the left side.  30th round pick from Berkeley, he was not in a prospect conversation.  Right now, with his compatriot Melotakis, are probably the top 2 LHRP prospects in the organization.

 

LaMonte Wade.  Opened eyes last season and the most important thing is that he did not close them this one.  He has Matt Lawton written all over him for some reason.

 

Lewis Diaz and Amaurys Minier.  They both needed a rebound season and they got one after disappointing 2015

[Mike Sixel]

Both great lists! Thanks for the updates.

[Steve Lein]

Alex Wimmers. Not sure why I like him out of the bullpen so much, but I do. Numbers don't pop out really, but has been pretty good over a long stretch recently.

 

Williams Ramirez in Cedar Rapids. Nobody can hit him.

 

Dereck Rodriguez. Could barely buy a win in Cedar Rapids, but his peripherals have been there, and has been pretty good at Fort Myers thus far.

 

These are probably fringe guys to such a list, but I like what I've seen.

[dougd]

In a recent BPro minor league update Chris Crawford noted regarding Fernando Romero: "Had a pro scout with a division rival say that Romero was the guy he most “feared” would hurt his team in the long run of all their young pitchers. That’s high praise."

[ashbury]

Williams Ramirez in Cedar Rapids. Nobody can hit him.

He's always been a little old for his leagues. I imagine what holds them back from promoting him has been the walks. But this is a case to go ahead and promote him, with the message "you look like you've been avoiding batters you're afraid of, so let's see you learn against a far better caliber of batter throughout the lineup, where you can't just walk everyone" - like at AA. He turned 24 the other day. At the current rate, if he eventually stumbles one year like most prospects do, he'll be practically 30 before he sees the majors. Make or break time.

[Steve Lein]

 

He's always been a little old for his leagues. I imagine what holds them back from promoting him has been the walks. But this is a case to go ahead and promote him, with the message "you look like you've been avoiding batters you're afraid of, so let's see you learn against a far better caliber of batter throughout the lineup, where you can't just walk everyone" - like at AA. He turned 24 the other day. At the current rate, if he eventually stumbles one year like most prospects do, he'll be practically 30 before he sees the majors. Make or break time.

 

This is a good point. What I see is even with the walks, his WHIP is below 1.00. Definitely should be at a higher level.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Hard to argue with any of those names, but got to add a handful more:

 

Daniel Palka.  I personally had him ahead of Walker when the Twins acquired him, but arguably he jumped to a top 5-10 type of prospect this season.

 

Huascar Ynoa.  His debut in the states as an 18 year old has been much better than that at the DSL as a 17 year old.  His control improved by leaps and bounds and he is really dominating the GCL

 

Trevor Hildenberger.  He has been on the second group of relievers in the Twins' organization in my mind (with the Jones' and Williams) but this season he moved to the first class with Burdi, Chargois and likely ahead of Reed.  A bit older for his teams, he mind end up being Anthony Slama or Rob Delaney, but very impressive season

 

Mike Theofanopoulos.  See above but from the left side.  30th round pick from Berkeley, he was not in a prospect conversation.  Right now, with his compatriot Melotakis, are probably the top 2 LHRP prospects in the organization.

 

LaMonte Wade.  Opened eyes last season and the most important thing is that he did not close them this one.  He has Matt Lawton written all over him for some reason.

 

Lewis Diaz and Amaurys Minier.  They both needed a rebound season and they got one after disappointing 2015

 

Strong list, and I really like the Matt Lawton comp for LaMonte Wade. Lawton was an on-base machine before that became cool.

 

Some of my list was more about surprise, but you make a good case for your guys too. I expected Ynoa to come over and be solid. I expected Palka to hit for a bunch of power. Both have been better than I expected, but not surprisingly so.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Alex Wimmers. Not sure why I like him out of the bullpen so much, but I do. Numbers don't pop out really, but has been pretty good over a long stretch recently.

 

Williams Ramirez in Cedar Rapids. Nobody can hit him.

 

Dereck Rodriguez. Could barely buy a win in Cedar Rapids, but his peripherals have been there, and has been pretty good at Fort Myers thus far.

 

These are probably fringe guys to such a list, but I like what I've seen.

 

All good picks... Wimmers was alright in the bullpen in Chattanooga, but he's been better than expected in Rochester. In fact, he's been pretty good.

 

Ramirez was our pick for TD Short-Season pitcher of the year, so I'm not surprised he's succeeded, though I didn't know as much about him as I do now. He's impressive.

 

Rodriguez was the Appy League Pitcher of the Year. HE was really bad for two months, but he's been tremendous for the last two months. IF this was a list of overcoming poor 2016 starts, Rodriguez would be at the top of my list. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

In a recent BPro minor league update Chris Crawford noted regarding Fernando Romero: "Had a pro scout with a division rival say that Romero was the guy he most “feared” would hurt his team in the long run of all their young pitchers. That’s high praise."

 

I might have been slow-playing it when I said he should be in everyone's top five Twins prospects this year... 

[Seth Stohs]

 

He's always been a little old for his leagues. I imagine what holds them back from promoting him has been the walks. But this is a case to go ahead and promote him, with the message "you look like you've been avoiding batters you're afraid of, so let's see you learn against a far better caliber of batter throughout the lineup, where you can't just walk everyone" - like at AA. He turned 24 the other day. At the current rate, if he eventually stumbles one year like most prospects do, he'll be practically 30 before he sees the majors. Make or break time.

 

That, and the fact that he was made a pitcher at like 17 or 18, so he's had a lot of growth to do since signing. But yes, he's a bit old for the level.

[Shane Wahl]

Excellent article highlighting these guys.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Williams Ramirez will also be Rule 5 eligible this winter.

 

I wonder if teams don't hold back such players a bit, to make it harder for other teams to select them?  If Ramirez went to AA and held his own, we'd probably have to protect him or potentially lose him, but if we let him finish the year in A-ball, maybe other teams won't have enough data to pick him in Rule 5?

[DocBauer]

A couple great lists and some nice additions. I might add catcher AJ Murray to the list as well. Hasn't done as well at Ft Myers as he did for CR but I confess to knowing nothing about him before the season. And then he got off to such a nice start he earned a promotion.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Williams Ramirez will also be Rule 5 eligible this winter.

 

I wonder if teams don't hold back such players a bit, to make it harder for other teams to select them?  If Ramirez went to AA and held his own, we'd probably have to protect him or potentially lose him, but if we let him finish the year in A-ball, maybe other teams won't have enough data to pick him in Rule 5?

 

Interesting take I had not considered before...

[Gagne Fan]

Baxendale was a 10th round pick

 

He did not struggle the last 2 years at AA, he was a mid-season All-Star at AA the past 2 years

 

He has flourished out of the pen where his fringy stuff plays up

[goulik]

A couple great lists and some nice additions. I might add catcher AJ Murray to the list as well. Hasn't done as well at Ft Myers as he did for CR but I confess to knowing nothing about him before the season. And then he got off to such a nice start he earned a promotion.

You beat me to AJ Murray

 

Molina though has been more of a 3B than a SS this year...

[drivlikejehu]

Minor league relievers have an atrocious MLB track record, across the league. In general fans overrate those guys. 

 

Wade is the biggest jump for me, I think . . . as a college guy, playing well at Elizabethton didn't mean very much, and his college stats weren't very good. So his performance this year has made it clear that he's a solid prospect, albeit without huge apparent upside.

[DocBauer]

correct me if I'm mistaken, but weren't Wade's last college season stats skewed from an injury?

[Mike Sixel]

 

correct me if I'm mistaken, but weren't Wade's last college season stats skewed from an injury?

 

I believe that is correct.

 

I think Wade and Granite will both play in the majors. 

[Thrylos]

 

Williams Ramirez will also be Rule 5 eligible this winter.

 

I wonder if teams don't hold back such players a bit, to make it harder for other teams to select them?  If Ramirez went to AA and held his own, we'd probably have to protect him or potentially lose him, but if we let him finish the year in A-ball, maybe other teams won't have enough data to pick him in Rule 5?

 

He still has to pitch in Fort Myers.  The last player I remember who was picked from full season A (same Midwest League that Ramirez is pitching in, btw) who stuck was a guy named Johan...

 

He is not in the same conversation

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He still has to pitch in Fort Myers.  The last player I remember who was picked from full season A (same Midwest League that Ramirez is pitching in, btw) who stuck was a guy named Johan...

 

He is not in the same conversation

I was going off of another poster's earlier comment, that he could be in AA given his age.

 

The Twins protected both Yorman Landa and Randy Rosario off the Cedar Rapids staff last year, so there's that.

 

Also, FWIW, Wei-Chung Wang was a Rule 5 selection out of rookie ball, below full season A.

Edited August 16, 2016 by spycake

[Bob Sacamento]

I don't follow the upper levels as much as I do the lower levels, for one because I don't see them in person but still quite a few of the guys in GCL last year have stepped up this year against better competition

 

Travis Blankenhorn - knew Blanky's stroke was meant for power but his display thus far has been impressive

 

Lachlan Wells - Gets downgraded due to his size and velo but the kid can pitch and commanding his pitches hasn't been a problem 

 

Andrew Vasquez - Saw where Theopanolos and Melotakis were getting some love as lefty relievers but Andrew has the best breaking ball in the Twins' minors, he's put up great numbers so far for Etown/CR this year.

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

He still has to pitch in Fort Myers.  The last player I remember who was picked from full season A (same Midwest League that Ramirez is pitching in, btw) who stuck was a guy named Johan...

 

He is not in the same conversation

 

Correct, and that was before the rule changed and teams got one more year to evaluate their players. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I was going off of another poster's earlier comment, that he could be in AA given his age.

 

The Twins protected both Yorman Landa and Randy Rosario off the Cedar Rapids staff last year, so there's that.

 

Also, FWIW, Wei-Chung Wang was a Rule 5 selection out of rookie ball, below full season A.

 

They protected Kepler and Polanco after their year in Cedar Rapids... and back in the day, they protected Deibinson Romero after a year in Beloit. 

[Seth Stohs]

Some have mentioned Wade and AJ Murray, good choices...  I avoided 2015 draft picks just because we don't have an real track record to determine a good level of expectation. I went with guys who have been in the system longer... I guess an exception would be Arraez who just came to the States last year in the GCL.

[diehardtwinsfan]

regardless, there's promise in these guys. They aren't sure thing top 100 guys, but if the performance continues, some of them could end up there before they hit the majors. The Twins have a lot of wildcards like that in their system right now. Hopefully, a bunch take some major strides forward.

[nyazbeck]

I was down in ft Myers and saw Romero hit 99 a couple of times

[FormerMinnasotan]

From everything I have heard about Romero I have to believe that based on potential Romero is our top pitching prospect. All he needs is to improve his secondary pitches and continue to learn how to pitch (keep in mind he only has like 160 or so career innings pitched). He sounds like a completely over powering pitcher with his upper 90's fastball, upper 80's to low 90's breaking ball and an improving change up.

[DocBauer]

I confess to knowing less about Romero than the pitching prospects in AA and AAA, probably due his missed time and his lower level status. (Seems we talk a bit less about the lower level players at times) But despite coming back from virtually with full seasons away due to his injuries, his numbers split between CR and Ft Myers are pretty impressive.

 

7-3 in 14GS 77IP 61H 13BB 73SO .96WHIP

 

Impressive. Here's hoping he sees AA next year.