Article: Kepler Versus Buxton Has Become No Contest

[Mike Sixel]

 

Buxton had a grand total of 55 at bats in AAA between his disaster of a season last year and spring... 55.  He was awful again in the spring. Anyone predicting him to be an RoY candidate was doing so solely b/c of his name, and certainly not because they actually watched him play, and if that's the expertise being used to judge the pick, then I go back to my original statement, the expectations were ridiculous.

 

Who is saying that there's no timeline to judge the pick?  I am saying that all expectations heaped upon said pick have (to this point) been ridiculous.  I'm saying the decisions to keep him up here if based on said expectations were ridiculous.  I'm saying that the decision to not have an adequate backup plan was ridiculous. I am saying that Buxton should have started and spent most of this season in AAA and that because it wasn't done this year, he's going to need it next year. It's clear he needs the time to develop.  Period.  It has nothing to do with him needing to man up. It has nothing to do with him being a bust. It has everything to do with him simply needing more time, which hardly unusual of a 22 year old, especially one with so few at bats in the high minors.

 

Giving him the Carlos Gomez treatment is a great way to see a few more years of really bad production only to see it improve once he's ready for free agency or find yourself trapped in the Louis Rivas situation.  If you're disappointed, it's because your expectations were unrealistic and need to be adjusted. Buxton has been setup to fail since he got called up. That's the worst possible way to develop any sort of talent in any sort of industry, because far more often than not, being setup to fail, leads failure, no matter how good the person is who failed. It isn't like that magically changes because the skill set involves hitting a baseball instead of being an engineer or manager.

 

Not once have I used the phrase Man Up, so please don't imply that in response to me. It's a BS phrase, we both know it. I also agree he should have stayed down last time......it's why I believe part of his failure so far is on the Twins FO and coaches. That's all the past now, so,

 

What is a reasonable time line to judge the pick and their development of him?

[d-mac]

 

Interesting...  Here's footage from a 2011 Under Armor showcase.  Apparently Buxton once had an open stance, stride, and toe tap.  Probably helped his timing but maybe further elongated his swing.  Might be worth going back to, although I'd like to see the Soriano closed stance approach.

 

 

 

What in the world did the Twins do to him? His swing looked quite a bit better as an amatuer than now. 

[Craig Arko]

 

What is a reasonable time line to judge the pick and their development of him?

I gotta say the suspense is killing me.

[Doomtints]

 

FWIW, in the 8 games since being sent back to AAA Buxton is hitting .222/.300/.370 in 30 PA with a 1/5 BB/K ratio. 

 

I think the Kepler vs. Buxton comparison is quite enlightening. It highlights how important plate discipline is for a hitter to have success at the major league level and how much the prospect gurus are willing to overlook such a major flaw in a hitter.

 

Whenever someone throws around the "tools" phrase it's best to be skeptical. 

 

What's interesting is that when people start saying a prospect has 5 tools, he is always anointed as being the next superstar.  You only need one tool to be a star -- you need to be able to shred the ball with your bat.  Speed and defense are nice, but if you can't hit MLB pitching they don't matter.

 

We saw this same routine with Hicks.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Not once have I used the phrase Man Up, so please don't imply that in response to me. It's a BS phrase, we both know it. I also agree he should have stayed down last time......it's why I believe part of his failure so far is on the Twins FO and coaches. That's all the past now, so,

 

What is a reasonable time line to judge the pick and their development of him?

 

I wasn't referring to you (someone said it somewhere else).  So I apologize if I implied as such.  I agree it's a BS phrase.  I have no doubt the Twins failed Buxton. He shouldn't have been in the plans for 2016 and they did a Hicks 2.0 with him. I do think that some of his failure is on him, but he was setup to fail, so it's really hard to blame the kid. 

 

As for judging him. I'd give him a full year in the minors in 2017 (minus the injury cups of coffee) and then see how his 2018 season plays out. I would expect improvement at that point... just how much, not sure.  Even a .650-.700 OPS with the stick would be a huge improvement over flirting with the Mendoza line and with his defense turn a net negative into a nice positive.

[Deduno Abides]

what is a reasonable expectation for the number two overall pick?

You mean like Sam Bowie, Derrick Williams or Michael Beasley?

[Deduno Abides]

Whenever someone throws around the "tools" phrase it's best to be skeptical. 

 

What's interesting is that when people start saying a prospect has 5 tools, he is always anointed as being the next superstar.  You only need one tool to be a star -- you need to be able to shred the ball with your bat.  Speed and defense are nice, but if you can't hit MLB pitching they don't matter.

 

We saw this same routine with Hicks.

RE tools: Michelango used to find great marble, but he knew it still required his genius and hard work to turn it into a beautiful sculpture. He couldn't just put the marble into a museum and expect that the longer it was there the better it would get.

[Deduno Abides]

And the real ridiculous thing is forcing an unrealistic timeline because of said expectations... and that one is 100% on the Twins. Buxton needs time to develop. That was clear last year. It was clear this year. And to date he hasn't gotten enough of it.

100% correct.

Edited August 17, 2016 by Deduno Abides

[Thrylos]

It was never a contest. 

 

Kepler is a corner OF, first baseman.  Buxton in a CF.

 

This is like saying that Vargas / Buxton contest is a no-contest.

[kab21]

 

Well, considering Kepler's BABIP is like 135 points lower than Santana's was his rookie year...

 

Of course, Kepler could fall off an have a slump, but if he does, it'll be for different reasons.

If you look at some advanced stats then Kepler can 'slump' in some areas and still be really good.

 

One thing I really like is this swinging strike % is only 8.6%. Sano, Rosario, Buxton and Park are all 13.5%. Kepler is in Dozier, Plouffe, Nunez and Escobar territory and means that there shouldn't be a surprise in K rate next year.

In BAPIP he is at .277 and his MiLB BAPIP was .322 so it is likely to rise a little next year. He did post a .254 BAPIP in low A so he might a <.300 BAPIP hitter (MLB BAPIP usually drops from MiLB average).  The fangraphs projections expect about .290 (a slight improvement).

 

The big area of concern is that his isoP is .243 right now. This is where his most likely regression takes place. Next year this almost certainly drops below .200 (fangraphs has him .160-.170) but this is where the mysterious 'projection' comes in. He is a big strong kid that hits the ball hard. Does he end up around .200 in a few seasons or does he only have an isoP of .150. But he is a solid bet for a .750 OPS next year. And I would take the over. Conservatively he is a 2+ WAR player next year with potential for more.

[dxpavelka]

 

Well, considering Kepler's BABIP is like 135 points lower than Santana's was his rookie year...

 

Of course, Kepler could fall off an have a slump, but if he does, it'll be for different reasons.

But his power display could easily be a mirage. 

[kab21]

 

But his power display could easily be a mirage. 

And he is still a 2+ WAR player next season as a 24 yr old.

[dxpavelka]

 

And he is still a 2+ WAR player next season as a 24 yr old.

No, actually, he is a 2+ WAR player THIS season.  He COULD be a 2+ WAR player next season or he COULD drop off the face of the planet.  As Paul Molitor once said (and, no, I am NOT a Molly apologist--I think he should have been fired for playing Sano in RF and May in the pen) advanced analytics are an excellent way of predicting past performance.  I'm just trying to maintain CAUTIOUS optimism in light of the fact that he has the same number of home runs in 303 big league plate appearances as he did in previous thousand minor league plate appearances.  I'm actually more intrigued with his minor league double and triple numbers than his home run output.

[nytwinsfan]

 

No, actually, he is a 2+ WAR player THIS season.  He COULD be a 2+ WAR player next season or he COULD drop off the face of the planet.  As Paul Molitor once said (and, no, I am NOT a Molly apologist--I think he should have been fired for playing Sano in RF and May in the pen) advanced analytics are an excellent way of predicting past performance.  I'm just trying to maintain CAUTIOUS optimism in light of the fact that he has the same number of home runs in 303 big league plate appearances as he did in previous thousand minor league plate appearances.  I'm actually more intrigued with his minor league double and triple numbers than his home run output.

Fangraphs says 1.7 and Baseball Reference says 2.8.  Of course, that is in half a season of playing time (303 PAs). I agree that his power has a decent chance of going down, although I don't think we should assume it will fall off a cliff. The point about his low BABIP is that an increase in his BABIP of .03 to .05 (which is totally within reason) could compensate somewhat for that and still easily make him a 2 WAR (or more) player.  Kepler isn't weak anywhere (he has good baserunning, the potential to be good D, to have a good OBP, and a chance to hit for power). Those types of players tend to have a high floor in terms of WAR/value.

Edited August 19, 2016 by nytwinsfan

[Doomtints]

 

Fangraphs says 1.7 and Baseball Reference says 2.8.  Of course, that is in half a season of playing time (303 PAs). I agree that his power has a decent chance of going down, although I don't think we should assume it will fall off a cliff. The point about his low BABIP is that an increase in his BABIP of .03 to .05 (which is totally within reason) could compensate somewhat for that and still easily make him a 2 WAR (or more) player.  Kepler isn't weak anywhere (he has good baserunning, the potential to be good D, to have a good OBP, and a chance to hit for power). Those types of players tend to have a high floor in terms of WAR/value.

 

All true.  The sample size is still too small  on Kepler to even bother trying to predict what he will do.  It doesn't look to me like his performance is going to drop through the floor, but we're all just going with our gut feelings on this one.  

 

To his credit, he spent an awful lot of time in the minors.  He has a better chance of being a known quantity now than Twins fan are used to out of a rookie, so I understand why people would be skeptical.  We have seen a lot of guys play well for a month and then never play well again.  

Edited August 19, 2016 by Doomtints

[kab21]

 

No, actually, he is a 2+ WAR player THIS season.  He COULD be a 2+ WAR player next season or he COULD drop off the face of the planet.  As Paul Molitor once said (and, no, I am NOT a Molly apologist--I think he should have been fired for playing Sano in RF and May in the pen) advanced analytics are an excellent way of predicting past performance.  I'm just trying to maintain CAUTIOUS optimism in light of the fact that he has the same number of home runs in 303 big league plate appearances as he did in previous thousand minor league plate appearances.  I'm actually more intrigued with his minor league double and triple numbers than his home run output.

No, actually he is a 1.7 WAR player in 78 games. His numbers can drop considerably and he is likely still a 2 WAR player.

Perhaps you missed my look at his stats but I completely expect his HR rate to drop. And even if it does he is still good.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I disagree with the premise of this article, that Kepler vs Buxton has become no contest. Stepping back, here are their numbers:

 

Kepler

Minors: 1879PA, 280/363/445/809

Majors: 338PA, 252/332/473/805

 

Buxton

Minors: 1669PA, 284/364/450/815

Majors: 356PA, 199/248/319/567

 

Yes, Buxton hasn't succeeded in 356 MLB at bats. Yes, Kepler has had a great rookie season, in the running for ROY. But careers are long, and tracks records tend to show up in the long term. Plus Buxton offers elite-level defense at an up-the-middle position.

 

Luckily the Twons don't have to choose between Buxton and Kepler, but it is in my opinion definitely not "no contest" in favor of Kepler.

 

As an SSS aside, Buxton has homered in four straight minor league contests, while Kepler's game-losing Torii Hunter vs Oakland-ish play yesterday afternoon in the 8th (with Rosario's subsequent giving up) should rival Arcia's bicycle-kick play for the metaphor for the Twins' season.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd note on Kepler's power that the spike started in his second half of AA last season. I suspect that power is here to stay, whether it's going to be 30HR potential (probably not) or more in the 15-25 range is certainly up for debate. I think he's going to be good for hitting around 20 or so on a consistent basis while posting decent avg/obp and eventually better than average corner OF defense.  That's a really nice asset to have. 

 

As for Buxton, yeah, I don't think the conclusion is a slam dunk. For this year, most definitely, long term?  I'm not so certain. Buxton needs to spend a good amount of time working on high minors pitching and reducing his Ks. He isn't ready yet, but an .800 OPS type career with elite defense at CF is well within the realm of possibility here and would make him quite a bit more valuable then Kepler in the long run.

[ewen21]

When talking about how disappointing Buxton has been we need not be reminded about his speed and defense.  The disappointment is obviously with his offense with the caveat being........if you can't hit major league pitching then you ain't a major leaguer.  HIs bat has been such a liability and he has looked so bad against major league pitching that the Twins had no choice but to send him down.  It's as simple as that

 

Quite honestly, he needs more time in AAA.  Going into this season he had only 240 at bats in AA and 59 in AAA.  This after coming off a season where he had 124 at bats total.  121 at Fort Myers and and 0-3, 3 K game in New Britain that ended him by being carted off the field.

 

We can talk gum drops and lollipops, sunny times and glass half full all we want.  THe fact is he really didn't "dominate" AAA before this season started and he really never had a full season at AA.  59 at bats at AAA at the end of the '15 season amounted to 13 games.  Brant Alyea and more recently Glen Williams both hit over .400 in that many games as a Twin.  At the major league level.  Does anyone look back and say Glen Williams dominated major league pitching?

 

All in all, I am very disappointed in him.  I read an article shortly after he was demoted and he was happy to be back with his "family" in Rochester.  I don't want to read too much into that, but it surely is a head scratcher.  FOr a guy with his talents he should not be referring to his AAA teammates as "family".  Part of me wonders if he got too comfortable being the hotshot prospect.  It seems like he would rather be that right now than be a major leaguer.  A big part of his struggles is pitch recognition and swing mechanics, but a big chunk of it is mental, imo.  A lot has been made about how humble he is and how much he "respects the game" but I am not liking his not ready for the big leagues mindset.  Kepler's mindset is completely different.  He appears comfortable with being a big leaguer.  He has struggled lately, but I wish Buxton had a little more of what Kepler has with regard to attitude and mindset.

[ashbury]

We can talk gum drops and lollipops, sunny times and glass half full all we want.  THe fact is he really didn't "dominate" AAA

His batting average on balls in play in AAA has been very high.

 

2015: 59 plate appearances, .500 BABIP

2016 (first stint): 129 PA, .393 BABIP

2016 (second stint): 64 PA, .419 BABIP

 

I imagine International League average BABIP (not sure where to look that up and verify) is more like the American League's .300. A very few hitters can sustain it consistently above that, but not many. And Buxton's BABIP, if not a mirage, hasn't translated to the majors yet.

 

I too would like to see him play in AAA a while longer - see how he does when the ball isn't falling in quite as handily, OR see if the major league numbers come to look more like the aberration.

[ewen21]

 

His batting average on balls in play in AAA has been very high.

 

2015: 59 plate appearances, .500 BABIP

2016 (first stint): 129 PA, .393 BABIP

2016 (second stint): 64 PA, .419 BABIP

 

I imagine International League average BABIP (not sure where to look that up and verify) is more like the American League's .300. A very few hitters can sustain it consistently above that, but not many. And Buxton's BABIP, if not a mirage, hasn't translated to the majors yet.

 

I too would like to see him play in AAA a while longer - see how he does when the ball isn't falling in quite as handily, OR see if the major league numbers come to look more like the aberration.

Those are 3 small, compartmentalized stints in AAA.  Those BABIP numbers are freakish and cannot be sustained.  No doubt his speed helps him out a lot more against weaker defense.  No doubt luck is involved.  The thing that concerns me is that he isn't putting the ball in play all that much in this second stint.  He's struck out 25 times in 15 games against AAA pitching.  

 

One other thing that concerns me about Buxton is his durability.  He has come down with the flu three times in the last  year and a half by my count.  Each time he missed multiple games. That is a little strange.  I am also concerned with the injuries.  I think he plays (and runs) in a kind of reckless way.  Watching him run the bases he looks so out of control.  Like he is an injury waiting to happen.

 

I hate to sound so glass half full, but if we remove the hotshot prospect label and just watch the guy on face value he has a lot of work to do.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I disagree with the premise of this article, that Kepler vs Buxton has become no contest. Stepping back, here are their numbers:

Kepler
Minors: 1879PA, 280/363/445/809
Majors: 338PA, 252/332/473/805

Buxton
Minors: 1669PA, 284/364/450/815
Majors: 356PA, 199/248/319/567

Yes, Buxton hasn't succeeded in 356 MLB at bats. Yes, Kepler has had a great rookie season, in the running for ROY. But careers are long, and tracks records tend to show up in the long term. Plus Buxton offers elite-level defense at an up-the-middle position.

Luckily the Twons don't have to choose between Buxton and Kepler, but it is in my opinion definitely not "no contest" in favor of Kepler.

As an SSS aside, Buxton has homered in four straight minor league contests, while Kepler's game-losing Torii Hunter vs Oakland-ish play yesterday afternoon in the 8th (with Rosario's subsequent giving up) should rival Arcia's bicycle-kick play for the metaphor for the Twins' season.

Agree with your post but not the little dig at Rosario. Upton was being waved around before Kepler even kicked it away. Rosario had zero chance.

 

(at least that's my interpretation from the replay)

Edited August 28, 2016 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[HitInAPinch]

If a guy isn't making contact in a SSS, is the BABIP stat even relevant?

[AlwaysinModeration]

Agree with your post but not the little dig at Rosario. Upton was being waved around before Kepler even kicked it away. Rosario had zero chance.

 

(at least that's my interpretation from the replay)

Fair enough. He really had no shot. Something about a ball rolling in the outfield while the go ahead run in the 8th circles the bases and the outfielder stops running after it....still bugs me.

[ashbury]

Fair enough. He really had no shot. Something about a ball rolling in the outfield while the go ahead run in the 8th circles the bases and the outfielder stops running after it....still bugs me.

1. I think everyone in the ballpark knew that if the Twins surrendered that lead, they would go on to lose.
2. As soon as that ball was struck, you knew if it dropped then the baserunner would score to tie it.
3. The catch had to be made.
4. It was an impossible catch for someone with Kepler's speed.

Everything after that decision to go for it... was just... horrible to watch, but in all practicality really only accelerated the inevitable outcome.

[USAFChief]

 

 

1. I think everyone in the ballpark knew that if the Twins surrendered that lead, they would go on to lose.
2. As soon as that ball was struck, you knew if it dropped then the baserunner would score to tie it.
3. The catch had to be made.
4. It was an impossible catch for someone with Kepler's speed.

Everything after that decision to go for it... was just... horrible to watch, but in all practicality really only accelerated the inevitable outcome.

 

That's still no excuse.  If you dive in that situation and miss by a couple inches, I get that.

 

Kepler missed by a yard.  He was nowhere near catching that.  In that situation, you HAVE to pull up, and keep the go ahead run at first.

[ashbury]

That's still no excuse.  If you dive in that situation and miss by a couple inches, I get that.

 

Kepler missed by a yard.  He was nowhere near catching that.  In that situation, you HAVE to pull up, and keep the go ahead run at first.

I hope the coaches don't ream him too hard about it. He knows he goofed. The goof looks for all the world like wanting so much to win; you don't want to wring that out of him. I'd pat him on the butt, say something benign like "nobody could have caught that one, you didn't lose the game," and then if he does something dumb like that again, talk more pointedly at that time.

[John Kelsey]

I don't want to jinx it, but whoa. Buxton has absolutely wowed me since his call-up. It's crazy how many ways he can impact a game when he's on. 

 

Also, he has the fourth highest (B-Ref) WAR on the team, trailing only Dozier, Kepler, and Mauer. 

[Rosterman]

I think someone has to explain what kind of player do the Twins want him to be. A fine defense guy in the outfield showing speed for coverage and great arm. Do we want him batting leadoff, drawing walks, mixing up between full swings and chops and bunts (and is he capable of that). If so, how do they get him to that point in major league coaching, as the playing field up here is totally different than it is in the minors. Do you want him to develop power, take the Carlos Gomez route? Is there tension between the organization and Buxton on how they see the skill set. If so, why? How did it happen at the major league level, yet he is so comfortable with his family in the minors (probably Chad Allen hitting coach). 

 

We know Buxton will be a fine outfielder. But when the time comes, is he a $50 or $100 million player for the Twins.

 

Kepler is learning well. He will have his slumps and has to work on them, knowing how to change up his at bats. He is still riding a high, especially on the home run front. But he is showing that he an intelligent hitter who will work on his craft when called upon. But imagine the joy he is showing out there on the field, chasing balls, putting ball in play, playing the fun game of baseball. He isn't perfect ye.....but you want to pencil him into the daily lineup.

[DrNeau]

#FreeBuxton'sLegKick