Article: Kepler Versus Buxton Has Become No Contest

[Doomtints]

 

Twins drafted him 2nd overall......not 20th. There should be an expectation that he's great. A team that won't sign expensive FAs can't afford to miss on those picks.

 

Baseball history is full of #2 picks who ended up being average players.   Sure, have the expectation that the team should draft the right people if that is going to be their only source for talent, but that has nothing to do with Buxton's performance.  

 

All I'm saying is make sure you're blaming the right people should Buxton not become an MVP.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Or, maybe something is amiss with the ranking system.

 

Or, it's really hard to predict the future.

 

You are arguing that years of drafting players and all the information they have on players...we should have zero expectations that the Twins can draft and develop early draft picks? I'm not sure I'm following.

[gheggs42]

The thing with Byron, and it has been pointed out on here before, is he has only played 313 games in his minor league career! 313! that is less then two full major league seasons. He has played a total of 109 games in the high minors, 59 at AA and 50 at AAA. The kid needs more time, plain and simple. He is one of the most talented players in all of baseball, let the kid develop. It's not like he played in the SEC for 2-3 seasons where he saw good pitching. He was rushed, plain and simple, blame the FO more than Byron. 

 

His AAA numbers are good, 67-198 or .338, he is ONLY 22. He will come around, let him sit in AAA all of next year too, bring him up beginning of 2018 or as a Sept. call up next year. If he is still struggling this badly at that time, then I would start to worry. His confidence has to be absolutely destroyed because I highly doubt he as ever struggled this badly in his life at any sport, and he has faced heavy criticism.

 

Just my 2 cents...

[Mike Sixel]

 

Baseball history is full of #2 picks who ended up being average players.   Sure, have the expectation that the team should draft the right people if that is going to be their only source for talent, but that has nothing to do with Buxton's performance.  

 

All I'm saying is make sure you're blaming the right people should Buxton not become an MVP.

 

Here is a list of people expecting him to be an MVP right now:

[ashbury]

Sometimes when it's not working it makes sense to pull the plug for a while and then try again later.  I think we reached that point with Buxton. 

If that's the only way to break through the impasse, OK, I guess. But assuming it works, this method won't work in the future, during some pennant race where he finds himself in a slump and isn't picking up the breaking ball in the dirt or whatever. Far preferable would be to execute the cliched Battle His Tail Off maneuver.

 

But hitting coaching is as much psychology as skill-teaching, so good luck to Chad Allen in finding the key here.

[Jham]

 

If that's the only way to break through the impasse, OK, I guess. But assuming it works, this method won't work in the future, during some pennant race where he finds himself in a slump and isn't picking up the breaking ball in the dirt or whatever. Far preferable would be to execute the cliched Battle His Tail Off maneuver.

 

But hitting coaching is as much psychology as skill-teaching, so good luck to Chad Allen in finding the key here.

I'm really really concerned that they're trying to make him into a slap hitter.  They ruined Santana that way, they got nothing out of Gomez that way...
 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I can't help but wonder what Byron Buxton would look like today if the Twins hadn't called him up on May 31st. I was against the move at the time but said "now that he's up, you play him every day and let him figure it out".

 

Buxton only has 55%-ish of a season of total MLB plate appearances. I'm not in panic mode - yet - but I really dislike what the Twins have done to his development.

 

Again, his high water mark of plate appearances at a single level before promotion/demotion since June of last season is 169.

 

That was 45 games, or just over 1/4 of an MLB season.

 

I'm not sure why we expect anything vastly different than what we've seen so far. Sure, maybe he shouldn't be this bad but the Twins haven't given him a fighting chance at success. The moment he succeeds for three weeks, he gets promoted. The moment he scuffles for four weeks, he gets demoted.

 

It's ridiculous. If a guy needs to fix his plate approach and/or swing, he can't do it in two ****ing weeks.

[ashbury]

I'm really really concerned that they're trying to make him into a slap hitter.

He's gotten a home run in his most recent six-game stint in Rochester, also a double, so in small sample size he's more or less on track for power. I don't know quite where you are inferring that.

 

If he's slapping most of the time, and happens to connect the few times he ever really cuts loose, well, that's a remarkable talent and it should indeed get exploited better.

[kab21]

Buxton needs a reboot. I didn't think he should have been called like Brock mentions but I expected it because of lack of CF options in the org. My preference would be that he doesn't get a Sept callup nor does he get called up until mid season (or later) next year. Let's give him some real time in AAA to not only have a hot streak but also maintain that hot streak. His awesome 30 game streak this year still resulted in a 3:1 K:BB ratio, 20+ % K rate and an almost .400 BAPIP.

Kepler is a classic case of a prospect that doesn't look like anything statistically but didn't outright fail. And he requires the mysterious words projection based on scouting analysis. Things don't always show up in stats. For example Travis Harrison has incredible power but he posts isoP's similar to a middle infielder.

[tobi0040]

If the next 4-5 weeks go well in AAA I would not be opposed to a Sept. call up just because more baseball/hitting is going to be better for him.

 

But when the new regime comes in, finding someone to diagnose his swing issues and work with him all off-season is priority #1. Then start him in AAA to refine it in games.

[TheTruth]

Check out Mike Zunino of the Mariners. Pretty much the same scenario. Rushed to the majors because he was the 3rd overall pick.. Hit some HRs but was clueless at the plate....as bad or worse than Buxton. So the Mariners sent him back to the minors. Fine tuned his swing and worked on his confidence. Got called up a little while ago and is a completely different hitter. Takes a walk and isn't trying to hit a HR every AB.

 

How you develop a player, how you judge a player and how quickly you promote a player should never be based on where in the draft he was picked. That is foolishness.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If the next 4-5 weeks go well in AAA I would not be opposed to a Sept. call up just because more baseball/hitting is going to be better for him.

But when the new regime comes in, finding someone to diagnose his swing issues and work with him all off-season is priority #1. Then start him in AAA to refine it in games.

 

By 4-5 weeks, you mean 2, right? There is no time left in AAA...

[SwainZag]

If we are at the same stage in a year, I will start worrying more about Buxton.  I love what Max is doing, but he did have almost 30% more plate appearances in the minors than Buxton has had, or a season plus of games.  

 

I really hope they don't rush him back.  If he looks like a changed hitter next Spring Training then I hope he makes the team.  If not, let him play in AAA.  If the Twins need to sign an OF to make that happen, they should.  You can make all the comparisons you want, but it won't change the fact he only turns 23 this offseason.  I still have high hopes.

[jimmer]

 

If we are at the same stage in a year, I will start worrying more about Buxton.  I love what Max is doing, but he did have almost 30% more plate appearances in the minors than Buxton has had, or a season plus of games.  

 

I really hope they don't rush him back.  If he looks like a changed hitter next Spring Training then I hope he makes the team.  If not, let him play in AAA.  If the Twins need to sign an OF to make that happen, they should.  You can make all the comparisons you want, but it won't change the fact he only turns 23 this offseason.  I still have high hopes.

I figure we should give Buxton at least another 4-5 years to figure it out.

[tobi0040]

By 4-5 weeks, you mean 2, right? There is no time left in AAA...

I didn't realize the season was only 2.5 more weeks. Hopefully they make the playoffs. I would add fall league, Dominican, etc.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I didn't realize the season was only 2.5 more weeks. Hopefully they make the playoffs. I would add fall league, Dominican, etc.

 

pretty sure he's not eligible for the fall league at this point.

[Jham]

 

He's gotten a home run in his most recent six-game stint in Rochester, also a double, so in small sample size he's more or less on track for power. I don't know quite where you are inferring that.

 

If he's slapping most of the time, and happens to connect the few times he ever really cuts loose, well, that's a remarkable talent and it should indeed get exploited better.

I mean, that was the talk during his last AAA experience too.  Everyone was abuzz about his leg kick.  Then he comes up, leg kick disappears, K's go through the roof, and it looks like he's just trying to make contact.  Is that him trying to adjust because he's over-matched, or is he being coached to shorten up and put the ball on the ground once he gets to the MLB?

[dxpavelka]

Buxton is STILL a kid with fewer than 850 plate appearances above the A ball level.  Also sure hope that fact that Kepler's home runs are more than his last 2 minor league seasons combined is not a pre-cursor to him following up his rookie season surprise in Danny Santana fashion.  Just sayin

[Mr. Brooks]

pretty sure he's not eligible for the fall league at this point.

I'm also pretty sure he's not eligible for Dominican leagues either, unless we sold Georgia to the Dominican Republic and I missed it.

[jud6312]

"Back in my day," prospects were given beyond their age 22 season before people started labeling them as busts or suggesting that they nut up or shut up.

 

Seriously, some of the comments on here are absolutely ridiculous.

 

Has he been bad? Yup, he sure has. But he's also insanely young ... he's actually considered very young for the International League at this point.

 

Fans need to give him time to develop, management needs to give him some actual direction and instruction (seriously, getting shuffled around between levels every 50-60 games can't allow him to become comfortable anywhere) and prospectors need to stop labeling these kids as "the next (insert whatever name is hottest right now so long as both players share the same ethnicity and body type here)" - it's not good for the prospects, the team or overzealous fans.

 

It wasn't until the last handful of years that players so young were actually "supposed" to be superstars right away. Honestly, if it weren't for the "he's like Mike Trout because of Cedar Rapids" comparisons, Harper succeeding at age 19 or being drafted right after Correa, how many people would be upset that a 22-year-old isn't quite ready to hit a big league breaking ball?

[jimmer]

 

Buxton is STILL a kid with fewer than 850 plate appearances above the A ball level.  Also sure hope that fact that Kepler's home runs are more than his last 2 minor league seasons combined is not a pre-cursor to him following up his rookie season surprise in Danny Santana fashion.  Just sayin

Well, considering Kepler's BABIP is like 135 points lower than Santana's was his rookie year...

 

Of course, Kepler could fall off an have a slump, but if he does, it'll be for different reasons.

[jimmer]

 

"Back in my day," prospects were given beyond their age 22 season before people started labeling them as busts or suggesting that they nut up or shut up.

 

Seriously, some of the comments on here are absolutely ridiculous.

 

Has he been bad? Yup, he sure has. But he's also insanely young ... he's actually considered very young for the International League at this point.

 

Fans need to give him time to develop, management needs to give him some actual direction and instruction (seriously, getting shuffled around between levels every 50-60 games can't allow him to become comfortable anywhere) and prospectors need to stop labeling these kids as "the next (insert whatever name is hottest right now so long as both players share the same ethnicity and body type here)" - it's not good for the prospects, the team or overzealous fans.

 

It wasn't until the last handful of years that players so young were actually "supposed" to be superstars right away. Honestly, if it weren't for the "he's like Mike Trout because of Cedar Rapids" comparisons, Harper succeeding at age 19 or being drafted right after Correa, how many people would be upset that a 22-year-old isn't quite ready to hit a big league breaking ball?

Yes, some people are frustrated.  Some people have ridiculous beliefs, like believing a #2 draft pick who has been a top 20 prospect for four years straight and a top 2 prospect for three years straight should not be completely and utterly overmatched at the plate.  I'm not sure why it's wrong to hold that player to higher expectations than we would a 5th round player not in the top 100.

 

It's not that he isn't reaching ridiculous expectations.  He's not meeting the mildest expectations. he doesn't look close to being able to meet even modest expectations.

 

Oh, and P.S., I doubt too many people truly believed Buxton was the next Trout. Trout is a once in a generation player.  May end up the best player a good chunk of us have ever actually seen play while we were alive and baseball fans.

Edited August 17, 2016 by jimmer

[Mike Sixel]

Back in my day....well, the world has changed. It is a younger man's game. 

 

What is a reasonable time line for the 2nd pick in the draft, who is considered by the Twins and most experts to be a great, great prospect, to be able to hit at all?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Back in my day....well, the world has changed. It is a younger man's game. 

 

What is a reasonable time line for the 2nd pick in the draft, who is considered by the Twins and most experts to be a great, great prospect, to be able to hit at all?

You know full well that expectations are  a case by case basis. Draft position means nothing. HS vs. College is a much bigger/better litmus test to start, but it's hardly the only one... The big concern about him was that he was from a weak HS conference and hadn't faced a lot of top talent. The question was how he would do against superior talent, to which he got off to a pretty darn good start.

 

and your statement is just revisionist. Buxton didn't debut on top of the top 100 list. He was much further down and moved up after destroying low A in his first full season. 

 

I don't have a problem saying that expectations forced on the guy were ridiculous, and these further expectations are exacerbated by a complete lack of patience. He has what 300 at bats in 2 years at the high minors? That's a problem.  Period. Very few prospects will survive getting that few at bats in the high minors. What's worse is what Brock pointed out, they aren't even continuous.

 

Yeah, if he was Mike Trout, he'd have been fine, but guess what, he isn't. Forcing high expectations due to Buxton showing similar results is ridiculous. Forcing those same expectations because Buxton was a top 10 prospect for the last few seasons is ridiculous. Assuming you have an all star in the making just because you have a guy on all the top 100 lists is ridiculous.

 

And the real ridiculous thing is forcing an unrealistic timeline because of said expectations... and that one is 100% on the Twins. Buxton needs time to develop. That was clear last year. It was clear this year.  And to date he hasn't gotten enough of it.

[Mike Sixel]

How is my statement revisionist? He's been considered one of the top 5 prospects in all of the game 3 of the last 4 years. He was a predicted RoY by many.....

 

How is it unrealistic to expect him to hit better than this by now?

 

And, if a reasonable timeline is "there is no timeline by which we can judge this pick", well, we'll just disagree on that. 

[jimmer]

 

 

Buxton was drafted in 2012.

 

Preseason 2013, after only playing in rookie ball for 48 games in 2012 and not having even reached A Ball, he was listed:

 

10th by BA.

19th by MLB.

8th by BP.

 

He has, quite literally, never been out of the top 20 as a prospect in a preseason poll by the big three in which he was a professional player

Edited August 17, 2016 by jimmer

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

How is my statement revisionist? He's been considered one of the top 5 prospects in all of the game 3 of the last 4 years. He was a predicted RoY by many.....

 

How is it unrealistic to expect him to hit better than this by now?

 

And, if a reasonable timeline is "there is no timeline by which we can judge this pick", well, we'll just disagree on that. 

 

Buxton had a grand total of 55 at bats in AAA between his disaster of a season last year and spring... 55.  He was awful again in the spring. Anyone predicting him to be an RoY candidate was doing so solely b/c of his name, and certainly not because they actually watched him play, and if that's the expertise being used to judge the pick, then I go back to my original statement, the expectations were ridiculous.

 

Who is saying that there's no timeline to judge the pick?  I am saying that all expectations heaped upon said pick have (to this point) been ridiculous.  I'm saying the decisions to keep him up here if based on said expectations were ridiculous.  I'm saying that the decision to not have an adequate backup plan was ridiculous. I am saying that Buxton should have started and spent most of this season in AAA and that because it wasn't done this year, he's going to need it next year. It's clear he needs the time to develop.  Period.  It has nothing to do with him needing to man up. It has nothing to do with him being a bust. It has everything to do with him simply needing more time, which hardly unusual of a 22 year old, especially one with so few at bats in the high minors.

 

Giving him the Carlos Gomez treatment is a great way to see a few more years of really bad production only to see it improve once he's ready for free agency or find yourself trapped in the Louis Rivas situation.  If you're disappointed, it's because your expectations were unrealistic and need to be adjusted. Buxton has been setup to fail since he got called up. That's the worst possible way to develop any sort of talent in any sort of industry, because far more often than not, being setup to fail, leads failure, no matter how good the person is who failed. It isn't like that magically changes because the skill set involves hitting a baseball instead of being an engineer or manager.

[d-mac]

FWIW, in the 8 games since being sent back to AAA Buxton is hitting .222/.300/.370 in 30 PA with a 1/5 BB/K ratio. 

 

I think the Kepler vs. Buxton comparison is quite enlightening. It highlights how important plate discipline is for a hitter to have success at the major league level and how much the prospect gurus are willing to overlook such a major flaw in a hitter.

[d-mac]

 

Well, that will be pretty disappointing if he turns into Carlos Gomez. Having a couple very good/great years and getting DFA'ed at the age of 30.

 

Well, it's better than his current career trajectory. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Buxton was drafted in 2012.

 

Preseason 2013, after only playing in rookie ball for 48 games in 2012 and not having even reached A Ball, he was listed:

 

10th by BA.

19th by MLB.

8th by BP.

 

He has, quite literally, never been out of the top 20 as a prospect in a preseason poll by the big three in which he was a professional player

 

Sickles had him at 37 with an ETA of 2016 in his pre-season list in 2013... so yeah, not universal as has been implied (and truthfully, that was the number that came to mind when I posted the original statement).  That was also before he lost all of 2014 to injury. That injury was big. That was a years worth of lost at bats.  I could care less where someone puts him on a list. That would in most cases push his ETA to 2017. He was up in 2015 and struggled mightily with not even 2 seasons worth of time in the minors.  Context matters.