Article: Kepler Versus Buxton Has Become No Contest

[Doomtints]

 

Yup. At 61, and a fan since 6 years old when they arrived in the Twin cities, I kept tablets of hand made score sheets and used non calculator math to calculate new batting averages after every at bat. I have earned my disappointment for years before you were perhaps born. When 70% failure is considered great, disappointment is part of the deal, whether one admits it or is in denial.

I don't expect every prospect to be great, but I do expect THE Prospect, the anointed one, to be great,and to do it immediately if not sooner! I stick by my statement regardless of attempts to shame my disappointing disappointment.

 

You're not wrong and this thread proves it.  Someone even played the HOF card in this discussion.  If a player is pegged for the HOF before he ever steps foot on the field, people are bound to be disappointed.  And you can bet Buxton feels this pressure!

 

Buxton can turn things around if he forgets everything that has ever been said about him and completely tunes out the media and fans going forward.  

[tobi0040]

Buxton has been frustrating and bad but I lay a lot of that on the Twins. Over the past season and a half, he hasn't been allowed to play at one level for more than 50-ish games. That's bad management and that falls at the feet of the front office. They've been jerking him around unnecessarily.

I agree completely. I was thinking the same thing with the Hunter comps when he came up. I think the current regime's record on development is very poor. There has to be a lot of different folks in charge of development now versus in 1993 through 1997 when Hunter came up. The current group seems to focus on winning minor league games, versus using the minors as a feeder system to the big leagues.

[Jham]

 

I think at some point Buxton will break out.  Right now there is a hole in a swing that pitchers are taking advantage of.  It seems to have followed him back to AAA which in a weird way is a relief to me.  I think he had corrected some things his first time down in AAA and they were working back up here for a week or two when he got his batting average all the way up to .250.  Then all of a sudden his swing seemed to get out of whack, he wasn't staying back on pitches, was guessing again and it all spiralled out of control.  The fact he isn't hitting in AAA now tells me that he has the skill to be good it is just a kink in his swing that needs to get corrected.

I think his dominance of the minors was always a bit overstated.  You can amass some pretty sweet OPS numbers against minor league defenses (extra bases, extra hits).  His HR totals were pretty meh for an elite prospect other than a couple nice runs.  But with his speed, an OPS over 1.000 would be considered dominant.  Especially in SSS.  

From an eye test perspective, his swing looks not only long, but difficult to time up and repeat.  It's not the most natural looking swing with a lot of moving parts and seemingly low back elbow.  I think attempts to get him to shorten up have caused the Danny Santana effect: he's lost aggression and more importantly bat speed, when his problem to begin with is bat speed.  This causes a loss of power, a loss of contact, and subsequent loss of confidence.  He also seems to open up to a rather extreme degree.  His uppercut swing reminds me closest to that of Alphonso Soriano.  He had an extremely closed stance which I think helped him stay closed when contacting the ball.  

 

[mikelink45]

 

Now give us a list of all the players who were this bad to start their MLB career who never amounted to much of anything, if anything at all, in MLB.  Wonder which list is bigger? :-)

 

There are a bunch of young guys the last couple years who have come up and hit the ground running. 

 

This guy was the #2 pick, was a top 10 prospect his first year and a top 2 prospect the next three years.  Buxton keeps having to go down because he has no clue at the plate. He Ks more than 36% of the time, his BA is under .200, he gets on base less than 25% of the time and his wRC+ this year was 46.

 

And it bothers you people are showing their disappointment?

Not disappointment - I am disappointed, but the comments are beyond disappointment.  I am not ready to relegate him to a position of failure and I will be beyond disappointed if three years from now he is not a star. 

[mikelink45]

 

C'mon nobody hates Buxton.  Heck, I think almost all of us hope he turns out to be a great player.  But there are more people beginning to question if he's going to even come close to that. 

I hope that is true, but it is too quick to react.  He might be slow to adjust, but until he goes another year or two I will be holding out hopes and expectations. 

[Doomtints]

 

I think his dominance of the minors was always a bit overstated.  You can amass some pretty sweet OPS numbers against minor league defenses (extra bases, extra hits).  His HR totals were pretty meh for an elite prospect other than a couple nice runs.  But with his speed, an OPS over 1.000 would be considered dominant.  Especially in SSS.  

From an eye test perspective, his swing looks not only long, but difficult to time up and repeat.  It's not the most natural looking swing with a lot of moving parts and seemingly low back elbow.  I think attempts to get him to shorten up have caused the Danny Santana effect: he's lost aggression and more importantly bat speed, when his problem to begin with is bat speed.  This causes a loss of power, a loss of contact, and subsequent loss of confidence.  He also seems to open up to a rather extreme degree.  His uppercut swing reminds me closest to that of Alphonso Soriano.  He had an extremely closed stance which I think helped him stay closed when contacting the ball.  

His swing reminds me of how David Wells used to swing, and the results are similar.  

 

But Buxton is quite young.  He has time to figure it out.  He should be in the minors in the meantime, however.  

 

 

Edited August 16, 2016 by Doomtints

[Doomtints]

 

Not disappointment - I am disappointed, but the comments are beyond disappointment.  I am not ready to relegate him to a position of failure and I will be beyond disappointed if three years from now he is not a star. 

There is a lot of baseball played in between "failure" and "star."  It's not his fault if he ends up in the middle along with most of the players in baseball.  This would be the fault of the people who hyped him up.  Be disappointed in them, not him.  

Edited August 16, 2016 by Doomtints

[Mike Sixel]

 

There is a lot of baseball played in between "failure" and "star."  It's not his fault if he ends up in the middle along with most of the players in baseball.  This would be the fault of the people who hyped him up.  Be disappointed in them, not him.  

 

Twins drafted him 2nd overall......not 20th. There should be an expectation that he's great. A team that won't sign expensive FAs can't afford to miss on those picks.

Edited August 16, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[Jham]

 

There is a lot of baseball played in between "failure" and "star."  It's not his fault if he ends up in the middle along with most of the players in baseball.  This would be the fault of the people who hyped him up.  Be disappointed in them, not him.  

There's a lot of draft picks between #2 overall and signed to a minor league contract out of the independent leagues as well.  Potential matters.  Perhaps Buxton was over-hyped.  Perhaps he has failed to develop.  Perhaps success is right around the corner.  Pretending all prospects are on the same success vs. failure scale is a bit ridiculous though.  Simone Biles was disappointed with a Bronze medal for completing a routine that I'd be ecstatic with simply not dying if I attempted it.  Success and failure is always relative.

Edited August 16, 2016 by Jham

[Jham]

Interesting...  Here's footage from a 2011 Under Armor showcase.  Apparently Buxton once had an open stance, stride, and toe tap.  Probably helped his timing but maybe further elongated his swing.  Might be worth going back to, although I'd like to see the Soriano closed stance approach.

 

 

[Deduno Abides]

If Buxton can fix his bad pitch recognition and poor swing, he could be good. Unfortunately, those are two of the more difficult things to fix. 3 K's last night during a Rochester blow-out are not a good sign. His defense hasn't looked as good as his reputation, either.

[John Kelsey]

The thing that makes it frustrating is that with the way he plays defense and runs the bases, he really only has to be an average hitter right now to be extremely valuable. 

[ashbury]

Time for Buxton to man up

Recognizing breaking pitches in the dirt is a matter of courage and/or manhood?

[Darius]

I wamt to preface this by saying Kepler is my favorite player in the Twins organization.

 

He is coming back down to earth now that his scouting reports are solidifying. Let's see if he can make adjustment number one before crowning him.

 

On the flip side, I still think Buxton is going to be a good player. I've been saying for a while, his expectations were out of control (Trout comparisons, etc). I think he'll hit enough (something like .250-.270, 10-15 HR, .750 OPS, 30-40 steals, 80+ runs), while winning gold gloves (at the very least, finishing top 2-3 annually) in CF. For the casual fan, with unrealistic expectation, that will still result in "bust" talk. But, if his offense even approaches my estimate, he'll quietly be one of the most valuable players in the league.

 

It may take him a couple of more years to get there, but he'll get there. He's still supremely talented. That hasn't changed. We're just finally seeing him for what he is, compared to some some psychedelic video-game statistic hallucination resulting from the absurd projections/comparisons of the 19 year-old rookie ball kid.

Edited August 17, 2016 by Darius

[h2oface]

I am sorry. That is not how I meant that. This is like taking a political sound bite of a portion of the discussion/comment. I will not take the bait,

[Deduno Abides]

Recognizing breaking pitches in the dirt is a matter of courage and/or manhood?

Other guidance would be to not allow him to drink water or anything else during summer two-a-days, run gassers until he pukes, and work harder on his bench press.

Edited August 17, 2016 by Deduno Abides

[ashbury]

I am sorry. That is not how I meant that.

OK, how did you mean "man up"?

[h2oface]

 

OK, how did you mean "man up"?

Just to be the baseball player he expects himself to be. Man up. Not boy up. Time to mature. Please don't make this about me, the poster. Just an opinion. I think Mickey Mantles dad told his son the same thing when the going got tough, or at least that is how the story goes.

[Trov]

Buxton's struggles was the knock on him all along before the draft, which was considered a weak draft with lack of top end talent.  He was a big fish in a small pond in high school, and sure his speed contributed a bit to his success.  The problem with him from what I see is his swing is so long.  My biggest worry is that it is not like he is chasing everything up there for strikeouts, yes he is chasing a bit, but he is also missing fastballs in the zone for a lot of strike outs.  A player can learn to stop chasing, but if he cannot hit pitches in the zone that is a problem.  Still think he will be a good player, but maybe not as great as we all hoped.

[Deduno Abides]

In eight games since returning to Rochester, Buxton's K rate is approximately 35%. Maybe he just needs a mental break and then winter practice?

[gil4]

 

There's only one way to "predict" whether or not a guy is going to cut it in the Majors; put him there, let him play and see what happens.

Sometimes when it's not working it makes sense to pull the plug for a while and then try again later.  I think we reached that point with Buxton. 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Speed? To get him more at bats? Why not?

 

I was being facetious. I was mad they were not batting him leadoff for 'at-bats' and timing/rhythm reasoning when they brought him back up. My point is, why the heck on a team this bad, were they batting their top prospect (who was working on a hitting mechanics for heck sake) last in the first place when he was recalled? Very poor decision from the get go there from a development stand point. 

[TheTruth]

 

I was being facetious. I was mad they were not batting him leadoff for 'at-bats' and timing/rhythm reasoning when they brought him back up. My point is, why the heck on a team this bad, were they batting their top prospect (who was working on a hitting mechanics for heck sake) last in the first place when he was recalled? Very poor decision from the get go there from a development stand point. 

 

Exactly ....and it's not as if this bad decision was a one off. It's time for a complete overall.

[Blackjack]

Another big difference between Buxton and Kepler is that Kepler plays 'smarter' on defense, he realizes he doesn't have to be superman, doesn't try to run thru walls, collide with other players, etc.  Buxton's multiple stints on the injured list has also slowed his development.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yup. At 61, and a fan since 6 years old when they arrived in the Twin cities, I kept tablets of hand made score sheets and used non calculator math to calculate new batting averages after every at bat. I have earned my disappointment for years before you were perhaps born. When 70% failure is considered great, disappointment is part of the deal, whether one admits it or is in denial.

I don't expect every prospect to be great, but I do expect THE Prospect, the anointed one, to be great,and to do it immediately if not sooner! I stick by my statement regardless of attempts to shame my disappointing disappointment.

Sorry, his position on a list means nothing. Plenty of guys up on that list fail, see Young, Delmon.  Unreasonable expectations is often what causes it.  The Twins need to do what is best for Buxton and not cater to some BA list.

 

You're talking about a guy who spent most of 2014 injured, got all of a few months of time in AA in his first taste of it (the first month or so was pretty bad too), and virtually no time until this season in AAA.  That's pretty much the definition of rushing him. Buxton shouldn't have went north this spring. He wasn't ready last year, and the idea that in an offseason he could somehow be magically ready this season was a really really really really really poor decision by the front office, and the same logic that pushed Hicks pushed Buxton. Hopefully, the next front office is smarter about this and plans on Buxton spending most of next season in AAA.  Give him some time to learn and reinforce good habits (which he's quickly getting out of in MLB) while giving him an easier environment to work on some of the skills he current lacks (like hitting a curve ball).

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sorry, his position on a list means nothing. Plenty of guys up on that list fail, see Young, Delmon.  Unreasonable expectations is often what causes it.  The Twins need to do what is best for Buxton and not cater to some BA list.

 

You're talking about a guy who spent most of 2014 injured, got all of a few months of time in AA in his first taste of it (the first month or so was pretty bad too), and virtually no time until this season in AAA.  That's pretty much the definition of rushing him. Buxton shouldn't have went north this spring. He wasn't ready last year, and the idea that in an offseason he could somehow be magically ready this season was a really really really really really poor decision by the front office, and the same logic that pushed Hicks pushed Buxton. Hopefully, the next front office is smarter about this and plans on Buxton spending most of next season in AAA.  Give him some time to learn and reinforce good habits (which he's quickly getting out of in MLB) while giving him an easier environment to work on some of the skills he current lacks (like hitting a curve ball).

 

what is a reasonable expectation for the number two overall pick?

[Craig Arko]

 

what is a reasonable expectation for the number two overall pick?

What's a reasonable expectation for a talented kid in any field?

[Loosey]

 

Interesting...  Here's footage from a 2011 Under Armor showcase.  Apparently Buxton once had an open stance, stride, and toe tap.  Probably helped his timing but maybe further elongated his swing.  Might be worth going back to, although I'd like to see the Soriano closed stance approach.

 

 

Even back then his swing looks "choppy".  It looks like he strides way too soon then swings with all arms instead of it being one fluid motion.

[Mike Sixel]

 

What's a reasonable expectation for a talented kid in any field?

 

If the number 2 ranked science major in all the US goes to college and gets a bunch of Ds, I'd think that is a failure on their part. 

Edited August 17, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[Craig Arko]

 

If the number 2 ranked science major in all the US goes to college and gets a bunch of Ds, I'd think that is a failure on their part. 

Or, maybe something is amiss with the ranking system.

 

Or, it's really hard to predict the future.

Edited August 17, 2016 by Craig Arko