Article: Kepler Versus Buxton Has Become No Contest

[Cody Christie]

In the prospect ranking department there are always players that fall slip through the cracks. For instance, take a look at Brian Dozier. As Nick wrote about on Monday, Dozier hit a combined total of 16 home runs over 1,600 plate appearances in the minors.

 

Needless to say, Dozier was never featured on any national top 100 prospect lists before evolving into possibly the best power hitting second baseman in the game. Sometimes prospects slip through the cracks before putting it all together and other times great prospects fail.The Twins currently have an interesting situation unfolding with two young players. Byron Buxton was touted as one of the best prospects in the game after the Twins made him the second overall selection. In fact, he has been ranked as the first or second best prospect each of the last three seasons by Baseball America, MLB.com, and Baseball Prospectus.

 

Like Dozier before him, Max Kepler has been a very different story in the prospect world. The 23-year old has moved slowly through the Twins system in the seven years since he signed. It wasn't until last season when he made his presence known. He hit .322/.416/.531 with 54 extra-base hits on the way to being named the Southern League MVP.

 

National prospect lists took note of Kepler's breakout campaign and he found himself sprinkled on multiple lists entering this season. Baseball American had him 30th, MLB.com had him 44th, and Baseball Prospectus had him all the way back at 66th. Not nearly as high as Buxton but that's not how these rankings are put together.

 

Kepler already has more home runs this season than his last two minor league seasons combined. He's getting on base over 33% of the time and his .508 slugging percentage ranks second among rookies in the American League. He is establishing himself as one of the best hitters in the Twins line-up while continually being penciled into the middle of the order.

 

Meanwhile, Buxton's struggles have been well documented during his big league tenure. Pitchers are constantly getting ahead of him and Buxton has a 36.7 K%. He's now toiling at Rochester where he has slugged .982 this season while Kepler continues to thrive in Minnesota.

 

Kepler's performance has been clearly superior to Buxton and that can show why prospect lists are fickle. Buxton could eventually put it all together and be the five-tool player most thought he would become.

 

Kepler versus Buxton might be no contest for now but Twins fans should be patient. No matter what the results are now, both players are going to need to perform well for the Twins to return to their former glory.

 

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[markos]

 

Kepler's performance has been clearly superior to Buxton and that can show why prospect lists are fickle. Buxton could eventually put it all together and be the five-tool player most thought he would become.

Interesting tidbit that came up this weekend on Twitter. Chris Mitchell created a KATOH projection system to rank minor leaguers purely by their minor league stats. This past offseason he had Kepler ranked #7 and Buxton ranked #43. He got a lot of grief for that ranking, but so far it looks pretty good.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-top-100-list-now-incorporating-multiple-years/

[Comrade Bork]

I've liked Kepler ever since I read a prospect list 2 years ago when I joined this site. A raw kid out of Germany who will learn the game and hopefully fill into his frame. I feel like Buxton is on tge same path and we just need to give him some time. Kepler has 3 years? Of professional baseball on Buxton.

 

I'm asking for a Kepler jersey for Christmas. Sophomore slump curse be damned, this kid is gonna go places.

[gil4]

 

Kepler versus Buxton might be no contest for now but Twins fans should be patient.

 

Buxton will get more chances, and I really think he's just a couple of tweaks away from putting it together.  I still think we will see them both in the middle of the line-up in the not-too-distant future.

[gil4]

 

Interesting tidbit that came up this weekend on Twitter. Chris Mitchell created a KATOH projection system to rank minor leaguers purely by their minor league stats. This past offseason he had Kepler ranked #7 and Buxton ranked #43. He got a lot of grief for that ranking, but so far it looks pretty good.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-top-100-list-now-incorporating-multiple-years/

That would be an interesting list to re-check in a couple of years.

[ashbury]

Kepler versus Buxton might be no contest for now but Twins fans should be patient.

In his past four games Kepler is 3 for 16 with no power and no walks, for an OPS of .375 which is worse than Buxton's. Patience might or might not work in the direction we want.

[laloesch]

 

Buxton will get more chances, and I really think he's just a couple of tweaks away from putting it together.  I still think we will see them both in the middle of the line-up in the not-too-distant future.

 

 

I think he's more than a couple tweaks away from putting it together.  He has no eye at the plate whatsoever.  In fact he appears to be totally clueless.  I think a big part of this is a lack of major league experience.  Until a hitter reaches AAA they will see mostly fastballs and not much breaking or off speed stuff.  That is part of the BIG transition to the Majors that hitters often struggle with.  

 

That said, you would think such a highly drafted hitting prospect would be able to recognize and track pitches effectively and start being more selective in the batters box with more experience.  The fact that he was still striking out like crazy, swinging at pitches bouncing off home plate and in the dirt is very disturbing.  

 

To me it appears that he was not effectively taught to track, recognize and react to pitches after release when he was younger (should start in little league).  It screams lack of fundamentals and coddled prospect.

Edited August 16, 2016 by laloesch

[Winston Smith]

In his past four games Kepler is 3 for 16 with no power and no walks, for an OPS of .375 which is worse than Buxton's. Patience might or might not work in the direction we want.

Seems like there is always at least one negative nelly around here!

[Eric R Pleiss]

How dare you besmirch Byron Buxton?!

[troyhobbs]

Isn't anyone vs Buxton (except for maybe Danny Santana) a no contest at this point?

[ThejacKmp]

 

Buxton will get more chances, and I really think he's just a couple of tweaks away from putting it together.  I still think we will see them both in the middle of the line-up in the not-too-distant future.

 

Yeah. I'm encouraged that Buxton has been killing AAA pitching. I know there's a jump up to the majors that he's got to pass but the fact that he consistently kills in AAA make me think he'll eventually get it.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Buxton will get more chances, and I really think he's just a couple of tweaks away from putting it together.  I still think we will see them both in the middle of the line-up in the not-too-distant future.

 

I don't know that you'll ever see Buxton in the middle of the lineup. His speed is always going to play towards the top of the lineup.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

WHY is Buxton batting lead off in AAA?! What is the reasoning?

[Steve Lein]

 

Interesting tidbit that came up this weekend on Twitter. Chris Mitchell created a KATOH projection system to rank minor leaguers purely by their minor league stats. This past offseason he had Kepler ranked #7 and Buxton ranked #43. He got a lot of grief for that ranking, but so far it looks pretty good.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-top-100-list-now-incorporating-multiple-years/

 

Kepler was #1 on the list the first time he did that exercise.

[Mike Sixel]

 

WHY is Buxton batting lead off in AAA?! What is the reasoning?

 

Speed? To get him more at bats? Why not?

[mikelink45]

To say I am tired of the Buxton hating would be an understatement.  Look at this HOF players who had a tough time getting their careers going.  http://www.azsnakepit.com/2012/4/11/2938842/worst-starts-to-hall-of-fame-careers-cooperstown  Give talent time!  

[jsimssd72]

 

In his past four games Kepler is 3 for 16 with no power and no walks, for an OPS of .375 which is worse than Buxton's. Patience might or might not work in the direction we want.

After those four games we better demote him to get things figured out.  

[troyhobbs]

 

To say I am tired of the Buxton hating would be an understatement.  Look at this HOF players who had a tough time getting their careers going.  http://www.azsnakepit.com/2012/4/11/2938842/worst-starts-to-hall-of-fame-careers-cooperstown  Give talent time!  

So if I'm looking at that right, Buxton is on pace to have a better WAR than only Brooks Robinson, so 1 HOF player. A lot of those guys debuted as teenagers too. Nobody hates Buxton, the guy just has terrible MLB numbers....

[Dave The Dastardly]

Prospect Rankings are like the old Seer-Sucker Theory; for ever Seer who claims he can predict the future, there's some sucker who believes him.

 

There's only one way to "predict" whether or not a guy is going to cut it in the Majors; put him there, let him play and see what happens.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

WHY is Buxton batting lead off in AAA?! What is the reasoning?

Probably to maximize his plate appearances.

[jimmer]

 

To say I am tired of the Buxton hating would be an understatement.  Look at this HOF players who had a tough time getting their careers going.  http://www.azsnakepit.com/2012/4/11/2938842/worst-starts-to-hall-of-fame-careers-cooperstown  Give talent time!  

Now give us a list of all the players who were this bad to start their MLB career who never amounted to much of anything, if anything at all, in MLB.  Wonder which list is bigger? :-)

 

There are a bunch of young guys the last couple years who have come up and hit the ground running. 

 

This guy was the #2 pick, was a top 10 prospect his first year and a top 2 prospect the next three years.  Buxton keeps having to go down because he has no clue at the plate. He Ks more than 36% of the time, his BA is under .200, he gets on base less than 25% of the time and his wRC+ this year was 46.

 

And it bothers you people are showing their disappointment?

[FargoFanMan]

I think buxton will get there. Might take a little longer though. He was definitely rushed. Probably should've been seeing his first taste of the majors this year. Classic TR. You think he would have learned from hicks but TR was brilliant at mismanaging a roster. I think you keep Buxton in AAA the rest of this season. Starts in AAA next year as well. If he's still putting up his typical numbers there in May. Then you bring him up. Enough of this up and down. The guy obviously struggles with plate discipline and pitch recognition.

[DocBauer]

He's very, very talented. You aren't ranked as high as he has been and perform the numbers he has in milb without it. Now, he may have to make some adjustments. But he's also quite young, missed some development time and was rushed some too.

 

Remember how Hunter struggled at first. And while it's a sore subject, so did Gomez. Just give him some time. I still think he's going to be very good.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Remember how Hunter struggled at first. And while it's a sore subject, so did Gomez. Just give him some time. I still think he's going to be very good.

Hunter never struggled like this.  His rookie season, he had a 71 wRC+, which isn't good, but it's not overwhelmingly poor either (Buxton is at 49 for his career to date, and it was going down, with a 54 last year and a 46 this year).  Hunter's rookie K and BB rates were both within 1 percentage point of his career marks in both categories.  The key difference was power, which came during the following season after something clicked at AAA.

 

Hunter was a 1.5 years older at the start of his rookie season than Buxton was this year, but the gap between their rookie performances can't be explained by age alone.

 

Gomez matches Buxton better for age, and Gomez posted a 52 wRC+ in his first taste of MLB.  But it was again largely a function of having no power -- Gomez's K rate during that first 52 wRC+ season was actually his MLB career best.  And Gomez followed it up with something like Hunter's poor but viable 74 wRC+, still lacking power but largely having the same K/BB foundation as his later productive seasons.

 

There is still plenty of time for Buxton to have Carlos Gomez's eventual career, but I suspect that might be the reasonable upside to Buxton at this point.  He's got some work to do just to catch up to what Gomez was achieving in MLB at the same age, never mind the slow adjustments that Gomez had to make over the next several years to improve upon that himself.

[h2oface]

Patience is overrated. Time for Buxton to man up and smarten up. It is getting embarrassing.

[adorduan]

 

Hunter never struggled like this.  His rookie season, he had a 71 wRC+, which isn't good, but it's not overwhelmingly poor either (Buxton is at 49 for his career to date, and it was going down, with a 54 last year and a 46 this year).  Hunter's rookie K and BB rates were both within 1 percentage point of his career marks in both categories.  The key difference was power, which came during the following season after something clicked at AAA.

 

Hunter was a 1.5 years older at the start of his rookie season than Buxton was this year, but the gap between their rookie performances can't be explained by age alone.

 

Gomez matches Buxton better for age, and Gomez posted a 52 wRC+ in his first taste of MLB.  But it was again largely a function of having no power -- Gomez's K rate during that first 52 wRC+ season was actually his MLB career best.  And Gomez followed it up with something like Hunter's poor but viable 74 wRC+, still lacking power but largely having the same K/BB foundation as his later productive seasons.

 

There is still plenty of time for Buxton to have Carlos Gomez's eventual career, but I suspect that might be the reasonable upside to Buxton at this point.  He's got some work to do just to catch up to what Gomez was achieving in MLB at the same age, never mind the slow adjustments that Gomez had to make over the next several years to improve upon that himself.

Well, that will be pretty disappointing if he turns into Carlos Gomez. Having a couple very good/great years and getting DFA'ed at the age of 30.

[adorduan]

 

To say I am tired of the Buxton hating would be an understatement.  Look at this HOF players who had a tough time getting their careers going.  http://www.azsnakepit.com/2012/4/11/2938842/worst-starts-to-hall-of-fame-careers-cooperstown  Give talent time!  

C'mon nobody hates Buxton.  Heck, I think almost all of us hope he turns out to be a great player.  But there are more people beginning to question if he's going to even come close to that. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Patience is overrated. Time for Buxton to man up and smarten up. It is getting embarrassing.

Patience is overrated? What?

 

Buxton barely has half a season of MLB plate appearances. If you expect every prospect to start off like Kepler, you're going to have a very disappointing relationship with baseball.

 

Buxton has been frustrating and bad but I lay a lot of that on the Twins. Over the past season and a half, he hasn't been allowed to play at one level for more than 50-ish games. That's bad management and that falls at the feet of the front office. They've been jerking him around unnecessarily.

[Loosey]

 

Buxton will get more chances, and I really think he's just a couple of tweaks away from putting it together.  I still think we will see them both in the middle of the line-up in the not-too-distant future.

I think at some point Buxton will break out.  Right now there is a hole in a swing that pitchers are taking advantage of.  It seems to have followed him back to AAA which in a weird way is a relief to me.  I think he had corrected some things his first time down in AAA and they were working back up here for a week or two when he got his batting average all the way up to .250.  Then all of a sudden his swing seemed to get out of whack, he wasn't staying back on pitches, was guessing again and it all spiralled out of control.  The fact he isn't hitting in AAA now tells me that he has the skill to be good it is just a kink in his swing that needs to get corrected.

[h2oface]

Patience is overrated? What?

 

Buxton barely has half a season of MLB plate appearances. If you expect every prospect to start off like Kepler, you're going to have a very disappointing relationship with baseball.

 

Buxton has been frustrating and bad but I lay a lot of that on the Twins. Over the past season and a half, he hasn't been allowed to play at one level for more than 50-ish games. That's bad management and that falls at the feet of the front office. They've been jerking him around unnecessarily.

Yup. At 61, and a fan since 6 years old when they arrived in the Twin cities, I kept tablets of hand made score sheets and used non calculator math to calculate new batting averages after every at bat. I have earned my disappointment for years before you were perhaps born. When 70% failure is considered great, disappointment is part of the deal, whether one admits it or is in denial.

 

I don't expect every prospect to be great, but I do expect THE Prospect, the anointed one, to be great,and to do it immediately if not sooner! I stick by my statement regardless of attempts to shame my disappointing disappointment.