Article: Brian Dozier: Powerful Asset

[TheLeviathan]

 

If consistency (as you define it) is so necessary, then why would any other team want him? How is it possible to "sell high" on a guy who is only good one month a year (and who won't even have that good month "one of these times")? It seems like the return for that guy would be pretty minimal.

 

That's a fair argument, there may be some salesmanship necessary in this trade.  It may even be something that forces you to walk away from trade talks - teams try to lowball you because of his erratic production.  I only sell if I can sell high, but I'm damn sure shopping to see if it's out there.

[TheLeviathan]

 

To be clear, there's no evidence streakiness < consistency, none that anyone here seems to be aware of anyways. We all know you're frustrated by it but that doesn't mean his overall line at the end of the year is any less meaningful than for other players.

 

Well, it might be less meaningful.  It seems to me that it would for a few reasons that Dozier is good evidence for:

 

1) When you're absolutely awesome for stretches, the team starts to rely on you to be that.  They build the lineup around you for that.  They bat you in certain positions for that.  So when you suck horribly for long stretches it has an amplified effect. 

 

2) Dozier binging for a few weeks may be enough to win you a couple games you wouldn't win otherwise, but how much of that binge goes wasted in lopsided efforts?  Compared to weeks and weeks of being a blackhole hurting the offense?  I don't know, but it seems plausible.  

 

Maybe reality is counter to what I assume it would be.  I'd love to see that.  As a general rule, I'd rather have guys that can keep their bad streaks to short periods of time and keep their production regular as opposed to long binges of either terrible or productive play.  I just think it gives you a better day-in day-out advantage.

[Thrylos]

 

To be clear, there's no evidence streakiness < consistency, none that anyone here seems to be aware of anyways. We all know you're frustrated by it but that doesn't mean his overall line at the end of the year is any less meaningful than for other players.

There are four reasons I'd hesitate to trade Dozier this August or winter:
1. Sano's glove at third
2. Ssano's elbow
3. Polanco's glove at third
4. Polanco's bat

If any of those doesn't meet expectations / hopes, then who steps in?

 

 

The former "second baseman of the future", Rosario.

[Kwak]

The Twins may have to trade Dozier next year. Assuming the Twins are still losing, and with a poor quality pitching staff, I can imagine Dozier thinking: "Why would I stay here? Mauer signed for 8 years and never got a sniff of the playoffs, much less the World Series. I can sign with a big-market team that will surround me with quality and this team will contend every year. I don't want to be Mauer 2nd and beat my head against the wall for the rest of my career."

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

That's a fair argument, there may be some salesmanship necessary in this trade.  It may even be something that forces you to walk away from trade talks - teams try to lowball you because of his erratic production.  I only sell if I can sell high, but I'm damn sure shopping to see if it's out there.

 

I agree he should be shopped in the offseason, since the team has more pressing needs than 2B. The return would have to be worthy of an All-Star player in his prime, though.

[jimmer]

 

The Twins may have to trade Dozier next year. Assuming the Twins are still losing, and with a poor quality pitching staff, I can imagine Dozier thinking: "Why would I stay here? Mauer signed for 8 years and never got a sniff of the playoffs, much less the World Series. I can sign with a big-market team that will surround me with quality and this team will contend every year. I don't want to be Mauer 2nd and beat my head against the wall for the rest of my career."

never got a sniff, except the very first year of his 8 year contract that is:-)

Edited August 16, 2016 by jimmer

[Kwak]

 

never got a sniff, except the very first year of his 8 year contract that is:-)

2010 was the last year of his previous contract. 8 years ending in 2018 means year 1 was 2011.

Edited August 16, 2016 by Kwak

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

"Why would I stay here?"

 

Because if you leave, we'll curse your throwing arm like we did Knoblauch's.

 

http://peterandsharda.com/wp-includes/Text/dr.-evil-laugh-gif-i16.gif

[Darius]

Dozier is a good player, but there is a capable, cheap, replacement in Polanco.

 

For a team this desperate for starting pitching, I think it would be foolish to turn down some impact starting pitching prospects if that's actually a possibility). I'm not advocating trading him Willy-nilly, it would have to big, but you always sell high rather riding an investment into the ground. The longer you wait, and the closer you get to the expiration of his team friendly deal, the more you give up in terms of potential returns. What happens when he goes into another year-long slump?

 

It'll just turn into another Mauer-like situation. People will scream that you have keep him. Then, after a huge extension (he'll certainly demand a large one he keeps this up), he'll start to get old/accumulate injuries, and people will scream about his terrible contract.

 

I don't see a big extension for a 30-something year old, or letting him walk after his contract as viable options. This team isn't going to compete next year without pitching. So, what do you do? This team has sat on its hands with players like this for years now, and what has it gotten them? A few cheap division titles, playoff embarrassments, and dozens of losing seasons.

 

Also, many people wanted him off

The team 3 months ago. Now, potential MVP votes are being discussed. Not saying that's right or wrong, just some perspective on small-ish sample sizes and how fast things can change. Pretty crazy.

[DocBauer]

Being streaky isn't necessarily a bad or unusual thing. While we would all love consistency from the players on our team, the truth is that there are peaks and valleys in most every season for all players. Usually, at least on decent teams, when one guy slumls, another player heats up. Now, I do agree with Levi though, that some of the streaks and slumps Dozier has gone through can be maddening. But still, he provides strong offensd, borderline elite when you consider his position.

 

I've read some arguements on here including Sano even though it's a thread about Dozier. And the answer seems to be Polanco. But he also can't play with positions simultaneously. If Nick is correct that BD could in fact bring back a front of the rotation starter, at the least, and I think that plausible, you have to consider a move. But I'm still on the side of keeping him for now.

[jimmer]

 

Being streaky isn't necessarily a bad or unusual thing. While we would all love consistency from the players on our team, the truth is that there are peaks and valleys in most every season for all players. Usually, at least on decent teams, when one guy slumls, another player heats up. Now, I do agree with Levi though, that some of the streaks and slumps Dozier has gone through can be maddening. But still, he provides strong offensd, borderline elite when you consider his position.

I've read some arguements on here including Sano even though it's a thread about Dozier. And the answer seems to be Polanco. But he also can't play with positions simultaneously. If Nick is correct that BD could in fact bring back a front of the rotation starter, at the least, and I think that plausible, you have to consider a move. But I'm still on the side of keeping him for now.

BD can't bring back a front of the rotations starter.

[markos]

 

Let me put this out there, since some people seem skeptical of the return for Dozier.

 

Last year during the season the Tigers traded Yoenis Cespedes for Michael Fulmer. Cespedes had lesser numbers than Dozier (as an OF not a 2B), was making $10.5M, and was two months away from free agency.

 

Fulmer is, of course, now a RotY front-runner in Detroit's rotation.

 

Do people really think that Dozier, an elite power-hitting 2B with an excellent clubhouse rep and 2 cheap remaining years of team control, is not vastly more valuable as a trade chip than Cespedes? 

Playing devil's advocate, the rebuttal to this would be:

 

1) Cespedes last year was better than Dozier has ever been: 123 wRC+ with plus defense, 4 WAR at the deadline.

2) Cespedes has always been seen as someone with some upside left.

3) Teams traditionally are willing to pay a lot more at the deadline than during the off-season. Some estimates suggest that they pay twice as much.

4) The version of Fulmer pitching for the Tiger's right now isn't the same as the guy traded last year. Last year he was a 22-year-old in AA who hadn't yet cracked a single top-100 prospect list. Even this offseason he only topped out at #47. In some ways he was similar to Gonsalves now in terms of prospect quality at the 2015 deadline.

5) Teams will be paying for future performance; not what Dozier has done in the past. So a lot will depend on how they expect him to age in his age 30 and 31 seasons. If teams think he is peaked, they won't pay as much for a declining player.

6) Cespedes provided some positional flexibility - he could play (sort of) all 3 outfield positions. So he was a legitimate option for any team with an outfield hole. Dozier can only play 2B, so the list of potential suitors may be smaller.

 

As another datapoint, the Mets traded for Neil Walker this offseason. He is a 2B, a step below Dozier but still solidly average-to-above, with only 1 year of team control and $10M contract. So he definitely had less value than Dozier will this offseason. However, Walker was acquired for Jon Niese, a #4/5 starter making $9M with two team options. That is less encouraging. 

[markos]

 

Yep. Short of demanding a top five prospect, the Twins can/should write their own ticket when it comes to Dozier's price tag.

 

(and they might even be able to swing a top five guy if they bundle in something with Dozier)

 

If you can't get elite talent in return, don't trade him. It's an easy decision.

Using the methodology Fangraphs (and others) use for calculating surplus value, Dozier probably has ~$30M over the next two seasons with reasonably estimates of his production over the next two years (3.5 and 3 WAR). Using the research done by the folks at The Point of Pittsburgh, that is equivalent to the value of a pitching prospect in the #26-#50 range - basically Berrios pre-2015. 

[Shaitan]

 

What risk? Likely none of those guys will be top ML pitchers in 17 or 18. By the time they hopefully are Dozier is gone. This isn't a Span-Revere type thing with nobody really ready to step in. Polanco very well will give similar production going forward, of course every move can fail.

 

After the past 2 years I'm less convinced than everyone else that a prospect will suddenly perform at a high level upon call-up. Polanco has hit so far in a SSS. That, plus Polanco has positional flexibility and is getting plenty of at bats now. After literally decades of futility in the middle IF, why trade the second there's a third capable player in the mix. If anything, I'd still look to move Escobar and cross my fingers that Polanco can be near league avg at SS defensively.

 

What risk? The risk that you trade a quality starting 2B for an Alex Meyer who can throw hard, but little else.

 

[Kwak]

 

After the past 2 years I'm less convinced than everyone else that a prospect will suddenly perform at a high level upon call-up. Polanco has hit so far in a SSS. That, plus Polanco has positional flexibility and is getting plenty of at bats now. After literally decades of futility in the middle IF, why trade the second there's a third capable player in the mix. If anything, I'd still look to move Escobar and cross my fingers that Polanco can be near league avg at SS defensively.

 

What risk? The risk that you trade a quality starting 2B for an Alex Meyer who can throw hard, but little else.

You aren't the only one skeptical that a Twins prospect will suddenly perform at a high level! What I have seen from the Twins minor leagues for the past 5 years has underwhelmed mightily compare to the hype from the Twins.

[goulik]

The hype hasn't just been by the Twins. These prospects have had national attention. Sano seems to be able to live up to that hype and I believe Buxton will eventually as well. Meyer was definitely disappointing but I believe he was mishandled. Berrios is still emerging as well...those are the big names that have had the most attention.

The second tier prospects: Arcia, Vargas, Rosario, Polanco, May, Gibson, and Kepler are a mixed bag so far. We will see where that all ends up.

After them are lottery tickets: Duffey, most of the bull pen, Danny Santana, Escobar, Many that have been up and down over the past few years. You expect the majority of them to fail.

I'm sure I'm missing lots of names but my point is there are differences in the big hype and the other prospects that come up.

[h2oface]

Everyone who has been a core player of the 99+96+96+79+9x teams, should be treated as part of the problem. If Dozier, Mauer, Plouffe, Suzuki etc are not part of the problem, who is? The kids?

The pitching, that's who.

[pierre75275]

I would rather Non-tender Plouffe and keep Dozier. I think you can only do one or the other, not both. If you do both, you no longer have depth.

If Plouffe and Dozier are both gone, that leaves Polanco at 2nd, EE at short and Sano at 3rd. And that is fine but who plays when those guys need a day off or there is a long injury? Danny Santana?

 

I also think if Dozier is traded we get back a pitcher who is one or two on the depth chart plus a catcher who is can't miss plus a good prospect in the lower levels, otherwise keep him

[ashbury]

I also think if Dozier is traded we get back a pitcher who is one or two on the depth chart plus a catcher who is can't miss plus a good prospect in the lower levels, otherwise keep him

Then you are saying keep him, because no team is going to give up that much for a second baseman. They'll just convert a failed shortstop whose bat plays. Like our team did.

[hybridbear]

Can Dozier be traded straight up for a starting catcher? Maybe the Twins could get Wilson Ramos back...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Can Dozier be traded straight up for a starting catcher? Maybe the Twins could get Wilson Ramos back...

Uh.... Wilson Ramos becomes a free agent in about 10 weeks.

[Shaitan]

There are a lot of different subjects in this thread, but I really don't see teams trading potential aces these days. You have to develop that within or get lucky on an unexpected player making a jump. Otherwise, it's likely highway robbery for a low level prospect with a 50% shot at success. That may be worth it for some players (Span) but I don't think it is for Dozier.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

There are a lot of different subjects in this thread, but I really don't see teams trading potential aces these days. You have to develop that within or get lucky on an unexpected player making a jump. Otherwise, it's likely highway robbery for a low level prospect with a 50% shot at success. That may be worth it for some players (Span) but I don't think it is for Dozier.

Not sure whether you're saying it's not worth it from the Twins' perspective or their trading partner's perspective.

 

If you're saying Dozier>>>>Span, then I agree.

 

If a team wouldn't trade a potential ace pitching prospect for Dozier, what would they trade for him?

 

Based on the past few years, Dozier is going to be worth somewhere around 7-8 wins in 2017-18. If that won't net a top 50 pitching prospect, teams have skewed their valuation of prospects way out of proportion.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I have to think BD would bring home 2-3 prospects, with at least one being top 100, quite possibly 2 if you aren't getting someone in the top 40 or so.  Personally, I like the Yankees the best here as they have a few top 100 guys (likely in the 60s range, but good fits) that could be targeted (Sanchez and one of their High A pitchers).... though in general I just hate the Yankees. I have to think though that a trade here makes sense. Not sure I want to go into 2017 with Polanco being a super utility guy. Not bad from a depth side of things, but I'm not sure that best uses his talents, and BD can bring in a catcher and maybe some additional help (unless of course the team plans on binging and getting Ramos).

[Major League Ready]

I am not sure what Dozier would bring back in prospects.  I have been of the opinion that we should not trade him unless the return is big.  The standard for “big return” is changing for me because Dozier will be gone by the time we are legit contenders.  Do we want Dozier for the next two years when we will be decent or do we want the assets we can get for him for 6+ years during a period we should be contending?

 

Dozier does not need to bring an ace for the trade to be impactful.  If he netted us a 2 or a strong 3, I would think that would be a good trade.  There is a possibility we get even more than a SP if the trade works out.  Big IF for sure but we wont anything to show for Dozier when we are actually contending.  I guess we might be able to make a qualifying offer and get a pick. 

 

I was actually hoping for a nice surprise at the deadline with Dozier bringing a nice haul that included a strong SP prospect.  Perhaps that could still happen next year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

yeah, I have to think BD would bring home 2-3 prospects, with at least one being top 100, quite possibly 2 if you aren't getting someone in the top 40 or so.  Personally, I like the Yankees the best here as they have a few top 100 guys (likely in the 60s range, but good fits) that could be targeted (Sanchez and one of their High A pitchers).... though in general I just hate the Yankees. I have to think though that a trade here makes sense. Not sure I want to go into 2017 with Polanco being a super utility guy. Not bad from a depth side of things, but I'm not sure that best uses his talents, and BD can bring in a catcher and maybe some additional help (unless of course the team plans on binging and getting Ramos).

 

I just don't see the Yankees trading Sanchez. He's a guy I've been hoping the Twins would target for a few years, especially when people were supposedly down on him for his "defense"...

 

I'm also not sure, but it seems the Yankees are going to try to build from their minor league team. Now, if I was them, I'd use both FA and the minor league team....neither of which require a trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If he netted us a 2 or a strong 3, I would think that would be a good trade.

Yeah. When I say "ace pitching prospect", I do not mean a pitcher who will turn into an ace. The likely landing spot of almost every "ace prospect" is #2/3 anyway.

 

My expectation would be a #2-ish level pitcher with an upside of ace and floor of a #3 (barring injury or developmental catastrophe).

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yeah. When I say "ace pitching prospect", I do not mean a pitcher who will turn into an ace. The likely landing spot of almost every "ace prospect" is #2/3 anyway.

 

My expectation would be a #2-ish level pitcher with an upside of ace and floor of a #3 (barring injury or developmental catastrophe).

 

We have a few of those in our system, but TINSTAAPP, right?  The more the merrier, and if Dozier netted one or two of those type guys, even better. You get enough, and we can have a lot of high end cost controlled pitching for a while.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We have a few of those in our system, but TINSTAAPP, right?  The more the merrier, and if Dozier netted one or two of those type guys, even better. You get enough, and we can have a lot of high end cost controlled pitching for a while.

Berrios is the only guy at that level. Jay might get there but isn't today.

 

Unless the prospect is Strasburg level, even the best pitching prospects usually land as a #2 or 3.

[Mike Sixel]

Jay is a top 10 LH pitching prospect, according to MLB....and is probably in most top 50-75 lists this off season I'd guess...

 

So, I think Jay is in that list. And, I think there's another player shooting up the lists this year. The Twins have:

 

Berrios

Jay

Romero

Gonsalves

Stewart

 

Each of them could be a top 100 prospect this year...imo.*

 

*Berrios will likely lose his prospect eligibility.