Article: Brian Dozier: Powerful Asset

[Nick Nelson]

In the entirety of his minor-league career – 365 games and 1,600 plate appearances spanning four seasons – Brian Dozier hit a total of 16 home runs.

 

In the past two calendar months, he has hit 18.Dozier's evolution as a power hitter is one of the most remarkable developments in modern Twins history. He is easily the game's most prolific home run hitter at his position; since 2014, he leads all second basemen, with 16 more than the next closest player (Robinson Cano).

 

Even with his proneness to extended slumps, Dozier has established himself as one of baseball's top offensive middle infielders. His 2016 campaign, which started so poorly, is now on track to become his best. After going deep in a third straight game on Sunday, he's two homers short of his career high (28), set last year. He should approach triple digits in runs scored and batted in. He is striking out at his lowest rate ever (16.7%). If he stays hot the rest of the way, he could sneak onto some MVP ballots.

 

Dozier is also still 29 years old with a contract that covers the next two years for only $15 million. His extension, signed last spring, didn't add any additional team control, but did put the Twins in position to save millions in the event he kept improving. That is just what's happened. In 2017 he'll be an elite second baseman coming off a 30+ homer season and he'll make $6 million.

 

For all of these reasons, Dozier is going to be an extremely appealing trade target in the offseason. Many teams would welcome a slugging second baseman amidst his prime that they could slot into the middle of the lineup. Add in the veteran's impeccable durability and excellent rep as a teammate, and you've got a uniquely valuable piece to float.

 

Of course, Dozier is also extremely valuable to the Twins. Clearly there is no reason to shop him around intently and settle for the best offer. But he's the kind of player that could bring back some serious impact talent.

 

This dynamic might present the key to the entire offseason for Rob Antony or his successor. On the one hand, it's a tough thing to come in and shake up the core of the roster by dealing a staple guy. On the other hand, when you look at the lopsided makeup of this team – a dominant offense and a pitching staff that, many nights, simply can't compete – the logic in swapping Dozier for high-caliber arms is undeniable. The Twins have a very respectable fallback option in Jorge Polanco, who profiles best at second.

 

While the next general manager stands to inherit a number of headaches, having an asset like Dozier on hand presents an enticing opportunity. I'm very curious to see how it's handled.

 

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[TNTwinsFan]

I don't think you trade this guy. I think the Twins should consider making Mauer a part-time player next year and roll with Sano at 1B part time, 3B part time. Polanco starts at 3B primarily and maybe gets some time in at SS. Keep the offense rolling, let the young guns and flame throwers work their way onto the MLB staff. Resigning Dozier for a 3 year deal or extending his current contract/restructuring cur re nt contract might even be smart. Sign him until his age 32 season. His Veteran presence is worth keeping around.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

It doesn't make sense. This team needs a veteran presence to compete and Dozier is the best they have. I really think the team needs to look to deal some of their long list of young talent to find more players to match with Dozier. I think Polanco's struggles at 3rd vs. the Royals is further evidence that he is and should be a second sacker. As a result, I put him at the top of the trade list.

 

Packaging Polanco with another young player or two could yield a quality arm or another veteran position player.

[stringer bell]

Good take Nick. Both sides of the Dozier argument have been laid out for a long time, but his performance since June 1 has put BD back in elite territory. Any return for him should be more than substantial. I would say one "can't miss" or established player plus a couple of good to premium prospects.

 

The team can build around him or build from what is returned for him. I lean toward keeping him, because he has shown he can make adjustments to keep improving and he is durable. Early in the season, I was contemplating whether his career would be more like Dan Uggla or if it would be more like Jeff Kent. I am now leaning to Kent.

[Steve Penz]

His streaky nature really scares me.   I agree about his value as a vet and a player when producing but the fact that he disappeared from July 2015 until July 2016 seems quickly forgotten.   He fell off the planet for a season and sometimes it seems like we talk about it as if he had a cold month.   And, it was not like he was playing amazing defense and just not hitting.   If the Twins were in a better position to win next year I would say no way to moving him.   Based on the idea that they will likely not be ready to compete for the division and how inconsistent he can be, my hope is that the new FO can deal him over the winter.   He is a good guy and it will be sad to see him leave and it’s the right move.

[magiklair]

I don't see them trading him or even thinking about it.. He'll probably play a couple more years, be expensive and on a new team.

 

But if they could get some good pitching prospects for him. They should really consider it..

[Platoon]

This team needs pitching, pitching, and then some more pitching. They are going to have to give up something to get it, and the only thing they have is offensive asssts. Someone, or several, treasured by many are going to have to go. Otherwise the last 2-3 weeks will be the future, hot winning streaks and cold losing streaks. And since Doziers current streak is as unsustainable as his lengthly cold one, I would sell high. This team isn't sitting here with good pitchers on the DL coming back next year, or any guys waiting in the Rochestere wings. And so far our top stud has only produced questions. The SP is a serious issue, with no resolution at the end of the existing tunnel.

[troyhobbs]

The twins have 3 streaky backend SP and 2 question marks in the rotation for 2017. Instead of trading away young talent to build around their one veteran asset wouldn't it make more sense to trade an aging veteran for more young talent or mlb talent at another position of need given Polanco's presence? It's not all that different than the Plouffe situation of last year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think they should still trade him. Polanco won't be as good next year (or quite likely ever for that matter), but he can still be an above average 2B, and 2 years of control vs. 5 or 6 is what is at stake here. They could get a really nice high minors pitching prospect and/or catching prospect for him and still replace him with someone who should be above average at the position.... that and we need more OBP than power.

[mazeville]

Of course you look to trade him. And if the return is strong enough for a player of his caliber, you make the deal. If you don't get a return, you keep him.

 

The Twins have middle infield depth - Polanco could step right in -- and the team has many needs in other areas.

 

I don't get fans who say, "Don't trade that player, he's too good" once guys reach peak value. This team is on its way to its 5th 90-loss season in six years. The Twins' rebuild has failed where teams like the Astros, Rangers, Mets and Cubs -- who were bad in 2012, like the Twins -- are all contenders, having rebuilt their teams with young talent. 

 

You have to give up good players in rebuilds to speed the process and the Twins did not do that during their bad years, when they probably should have traded guys at their peak, such as Glen Perkins before he was injured. 

 

Dozier is the perfect candidate for a trade. He's the one guy on the team not named Sano who could net a big return. 

[Blackjack]

With his streaky nature and the fact that you have Polanco ready to step in, sell high and trade him for pitching. Starting pitching!!

[Craig Arko]

 

With his streaky nature and the fact that you have Polanco ready to step in, sell high and trade him for pitching. Starting pitching!!

Number 1 or 2 quality starting pitching. Not prospects.

[Linus]

I would also shop him hard and throw in enough prospect talent to obtain a pitcher who will be near the top of the rotation next year and many years. They need pitching and none is on the horizon.

 

Polanco provides obp that this lineup badly needs and I am beginning to think that 2nd base is the only spot where his glove will be adequate.

[Vanimal46]

Luckily Dozier has turned things around after being a replacement player for 11 months. There was a stat mentioned on Gleeman and the Geek which prompts me to be on the sell Dozier now bandwagon. From July 2015 to July 2016, 125-ish games, he was batting around .200 with a replacement level OPS. 

His streaky play is incredibly frustrating, and it's not just a couple of weeks where he's hot or cold. We're talking about entire halves of the season either being red hot or ice cold. 

If Dozier keeps it up the rest of the season, I would think he could be sold at a premium rate this off-season. 

[goulik]

Go blockbuster. Dozier And Santana for A can't miss Ace from AAA to pair with Berrios and a high minors Can't miss catcher both that are projected ready next year.

So who needs a proven 2B and SP both reasonably controlled that has those pieces?

[DocBauer]

You have to give up good or great talent to get good or great talent in return. And Dozier is a strength from which the Twins could trade to acquire someone and already has someone to plug in to his spot. Polanco won't ever have his power, but he does have some string in his bat and might develop more. He's also got the ability to hit, get OB, and run quite well. Defensively, the potential is very good. Dozier, or Dozier and another prospect, would seem a prime candidate to bring back a top end SP, relatively young and cost controlled for a few years, that could really stabilize the rotation.

 

But here's the rub.

 

He's probably one of the best at his position in baseball. He's only 29, and plays a position where good players can often maintain their skills longer than some others. He's also cost controlled for the next couple of seasons. And even then, should the Twins be inclined to keep him, they will have several contracts coming off the books, and a relatively young and inexpensive roster in place. And he is one of the team'should top power threats and offensive performers.

 

While the team needs SP help, Berrios, Duffey and the newly acquired Mejia offer real potential, and there are a few top young arms at AA, most notably Gonsalves, that could/should be ready to contribute in a year, perhaps a bit sooner. Unless you truly believe the Twins could contend in 2017, I'm inclined to keep him for next season. At least, begin the season with him. When I look at Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Polanco and Vargas, I see a team that may not need Dozier a year from now. I'm really torn on this subjecg, but I lean towards keeping him for now as all the prospects develop over the next half to full season.

[Halsey Hall]

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. At least the new GM has a wild card to play with.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If you want to talk about a true "sell high" player, Brian Dozier is that player.

 

While I'm typically against trading positional talent for pitching, it makes sense in this case.

 

Coming off his 2016 campaign with two remaining years of control, you can set the asking price for Dozier. If you can find a contender with a gap at second and a top 15 pitching prospect in their organization, you kinda have to make that trade.

 

Get a front line starting prospect and let Polanco run with the position. I like Dozier - I like him a lot - but the Twins need starting pitching if they're going to compete. Dozier is their best (only) chance to get that player and with Polanco behind Dozier in the organization, the risk is relatively low.

[Vanimal46]

Perhaps the Yankees are a fit to acquire Dozier now that they restocked their farm system? It should be no surprise that Castro is nothing special, with 0.4 WAR according to Fangraphs. 

Sanchez + some of their new prospects for Dozier? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Perhaps the Yankees are a fit to acquire Dozier now that they restocked their farm system? It should be no surprise that Castro is nothing special, with 0.4 WAR according to Fangraphs. 

Sanchez + some of their new prospects for Dozier? 

It's hard to get a read on exactly where the Yankees are right now but I suspect they're not interested in a guy with two years of control. Given their age and the status of their on-the-fly rebuild, I think they're still some time away from picking up short-ish contracts to compete.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Luckily Dozier has turned things around after being a replacement player for 11 months. There was a stat mentioned on Gleeman and the Geek which prompts me to be on the sell Dozier now bandwagon. From July 2015 to July 2016, 125-ish games, he was batting around .200 with a replacement level OPS. 

His streaky play is incredibly frustrating, and it's not just a couple of weeks where he's hot or cold. We're talking about entire halves of the season either being red hot or ice cold. 

If Dozier keeps it up the rest of the season, I would think he could be sold at a premium rate this off-season. 

I agree.  He's streaky, which may have more to do with the idea that he has to work a bit harder to adjust than some, or perhaps he's been dealing with more injury (I know this was a case a couple years ago at least)...  I think you take the premium rate, more so b/c he's gone after 2018, and that is really when this team will be a solid contender. May as well get another potential impact piece or two for him.  The question really is how much? 

[Thrylos]

 

 Early in the season, I was contemplating whether his career would be more like Dan Uggla or if it would be more like Jeff Kent. I am now leaning to Kent.

 

Career numbers:

 

Jeff Kent: .290/.356/.500
Dan Uggla: .241/.336/.447

 

Brian Dozier: .244/.319/.432

 

Become Dan Uggla?  He is Dan Uggla practically  

 

Dozier has highs and lows.  He currently is on a high.  I hope that he does not cool off, so the Twins will sell high on him.   His glove is getting worse and worse and the first month he was horrid with the bat.  If he can bring back a top of the rotation arm this off-season, it will be crazy not to do it.  Got to remember, he has been part of the problem, time to go.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If you want to talk about a true "sell high" player, Brian Dozier is that player.

 

While I'm typically against trading positional talent for pitching, it makes sense in this case.

 

Coming off his 2016 campaign with two remaining years of control, you can set the asking price for Dozier. If you can find a contender with a gap at second and a top 15 pitching prospect in their organization, you kinda have to make that trade.

 

Get a front line starting prospect and let Polanco run with the position. I like Dozier - I like him a lot - but the Twins need starting pitching if they're going to compete. Dozier is their best (only) chance to get that player and with Polanco behind Dozier in the organization, the risk is relatively low.

 

Top 15 pitching prospect on an org list isn't necessarily cannot miss.  I'd want one, maybe two top 100 over all guys (unless that's what you meant by top 15) and I wouldn't care if that's a catcher or a SP headlining it (though I'd probably want a decent option at the other piece if there's one in the high minors).

 

Like the Yankees idea.  Sanchez isn't going to be an all star behind the dish, but he should be above average and he's pretty much ML ready and would pair nicely with  Garver. Real issue here is that the Yankee's best pitching prospects are all in Tampa (High A).  Do you take a package that is Sanchez and one of Justus Sheffield/Kaprielian/Acevedo.  I'd pretty happy if we got 2 of those guys... ecstatic if they could get anything else on top of it. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Career numbers:

 

Jeff Kent: .290/.356/.500
Dan Uggla: .241/.336/.447

 

Brian Dozier: .244/.319/.432

 

Become Dan Uggla?  He is Dan Uggla practically

 

Dozier has highs and lows.  He currently is on a high.  I hope that he does not cool off, so the Twins will sell high on him.   His glove is getting worse and worse and the first month he was horrid with the bat.  If he can bring back a top of the rotation arm this off-season, it will be crazy not to do it.  Got to remember, he has been part of the problem, time to go.

 

Dozier may not be the best with the glove, but he's better than Uggla ever was...  But yeah, I think sell high makes a ton of sense.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Career numbers:

 

Jeff Kent: .290/.356/.500
Dan Uggla: .241/.336/.447

 

Brian Dozier: .244/.319/.432

 

Become Dan Uggla?  He is Dan Uggla practically

 

... Got to remember, he has been part of the problem, time to go.

Then again:

 

Brian Dozier, career:

.244/.319/.432

 

Jeff Kent through 29 (Dozier's current age):

.269/.324/.455

 

Kent didn't really turn the corner and fulfill his potential until after he turned 30. Granted, it helps that this was when he slid into the same lineup as Barry Bonds. But I liked that comment because it opened my eyes to the idea that Dozier may not be done improving. 

 

The fact that he's still trending upwards, cutting down his K's, getting a little bit better at using the whole field offers some promise to that end. 

As far as Dozier being "part of the problem"... uh, what? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Top 15 pitching prospect on an org list isn't necessarily cannot miss.  I'd want one, maybe two top 100 over all guys (unless that's what you meant by top 15) and I wouldn't care if that's a catcher or a SP headlining it (though I'd probably want a decent option at the other piece if there's one in the high minors).

 

Like the Yankees idea.  Sanchez isn't going to be an all star behind the dish, but he should be above average and he's pretty much ML ready and would pair nicely with  Garver. Real issue here is that the Yankee's best pitching prospects are all in Tampa (High A).  Do you take a package that is Sanchez and one of Justus Sheffield/Kaprielian/Acevedo.  I'd pretty happy if we got 2 of those guys... ecstatic if they could get anything else on top of it. 

That'd be an acceptable approach, though I'd lean toward one high upside guy over a few lower guys. Yeah, any single prospect can fail but with Jay, Stewart, Gonsalves, etc. already in the org and approaching the high minors, I'd go with one top prospect. The Twins already have several upside-but-not-elite guys in the system.

[Mike Sixel]

I would consider any of the following:

 

1. Traded (with other assets if needed) for a very good to great MLB SP who is under 30 and at least 3 years of control left (good luck getting that)

2. Traded (with other assets if needed) for a great minor league SP in AA or AAA and a flyer A guy

3. Traded for a legit CF, who is under 30 with at least 3 years of control left (then trade Buxton for minor league pitching prospects) (I expect this to be met with much derision).

4. Kept on the roster.

[Blake]

I would trade Sano before I would trade Dozier. The organization is currently well stocked with marginal glove great bat talent.

 

Vargas and Park can split duties at 1st while Plouffe continues to be competent at 3rd.

 

*I cannot wait to see the firestorm I create with that remark.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

That'd be an acceptable approach, though I'd lean toward one high upside guy over a few lower guys. Yeah, any single prospect can fail but with Jay, Stewart, Gonsalves, etc. already in the org and approaching the high minors, I'd go with one top prospect. The Twins already have several upside-but-not-elite guys in the system.

 

Those 3 pitchers all have decent upside with Sheffield posting the best results.  All are probably 2/3 type guys at their ceiling with a non-zero chance at a #1 starter, but hardly sure things in that aspect.  They are very much in the Jay/Stewart/Gonsalves category, though all are likely top 100 and are thought of a bit higher than our three.  That could certainly be a bit of Yankee bias, but I think the more of those types of guys the better.  

[wsnydes]

 

I would consider any of the following:

 

1. Traded (with other assets if needed) for a very good to great MLB SP who is under 30 and at least 3 years of control left (good luck getting that)

2. Traded (with other assets if needed) for a great minor league SP in AA or AAA and a flyer A guy

3. Traded for a legit CF, who is under 30 with at least 3 years of control left (then trade Buxton for minor league pitching prospects) (I expect this to be met with much derision).

4. Kept on the roster.

Of those options, I like 2 the best and it is what I would look for in a trade.  I just think that an established arm would be too expensive.  I also really like the idea of most of the young guys potentially peaking at the same time.  Bringing in an almost ready minor league SP would fit that bill.