Escobar and Hernandez

[jorgenswest]

Upside? How would you measure it? Sometimes it is an obviously toolsy guy who isn't performing well. Sometimes it is a guy that is young for his age at a level.

 

What about Escobar and Hernandez?

 

Escobar is the youngest position player on the Rochester roster at 23. He has played every level at a young age. He didn't get there by his tools. He progressed based on his outstanding ability to defend at SS.

 

Hernandez is the second youngest pitcher on the Rochester roster. He is 5 days older than Guerra. He also has had success as a younger players at his level.

 

Who are the youngest players in the Twins system with major league experience? Escobar as a position player Hernandez as a pitcher.

 

They may not be toolsy prospects, but they have performed well enough at a young age to progress. That must count for some upside.

[Thrylos]

Hernandez is the same age as Hendriks, with Hendriks having more MLB-experience (but not that great) and better MiLB numbers at all levels. Escobar is the same age Revere and 2 years older than Casilla were when they made their debuts. I still think that he belongs to AA and not AAA bat-wise and he should probably just hit RH. His splits (both MLB and MiLB as a RHB are pretty decent, but he still has to face RHPs as a RHB...)

[rickyhawaii]

Gut reaction was let down when i first saw the trade, but i've grown more optimistic. Both guys may end up being serviceable players. Escobar can bring value with his glove alone ,but if his hitting won't get better he'll be just another rally killer easy out. Hernandez could be a decent back of the rotation guy or good lefty reliever. They could have done worse than this trade.

[jorgenswest]

I wasn't trying to say these are great prospects, but pointing out that they are young and the Twins desperately need young players in the upper minors. Their youth gives the, some upside. Hendriks is the best of the four 23 year olds at Rochester, but it is nice to have a few more young guys with this experience.

[darin617]

I wonder and we will never know what Liriano's value would have been if he pitched a great game against this weak Cleveland lineup? It could also backfire if he struggled. I just think now they should have let Frankie go 6 innings or so and then take their chances if this is all the trade returned.

 

Bad move Mr Ryan and now go away and take Gardy with you.

[greengoblinrulz]

The fact that both players are the youngest on the ROC roster is a joke in itself. They were 2 lowly rated prospects from a team that Baseball America rated as the worst farm sytsem in MLB starting the year.

Why arent OUR players at that age in AAA??? MN rated 18th by BA starting the season. MN just refuses to promote its own guys & makes players play multiple years at a level when they no longer need to & stagnate them.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The fact that both players are the youngest on the ROC roster is a joke in itself. They were 2 lowly rated prospects from a team that Baseball America rated as the worst farm sytsem in MLB starting the year.

Why arent OUR players at that age in AAA??? MN rated 18th by BA starting the season. MN just refuses to promote its own guys & makes players play multiple years at a level when they no longer need to & stagnate them.

Who is stagnating? It seems to me that the Twins are doing their typically cautious prospect shuffle but it's not as if any of the guys are raking at a level where they previously had success. They show prolonged success and then get a bump to the next level... as it should be.

 

The White Sox aggressively promote their guys because they have so few players of quality at any level in the system.

[Dilligaf69]

I wonder and we will never know what Liriano's value would have been if he pitched a great game against this weak Cleveland lineup? It could also backfire if he struggled. I just think now they should have let Frankie go 6 innings or so and then take their chances if this is all the trade returned.

 

Bad move Mr Ryan and now go away and take Gardy with you.

I don't think another start would have mattered either way. Frankie is what he is and you never know which Liriano you'll get from start to start and that is not what you want in any starter let alone a top end(stuff wise) starter.

[Riverbrian]

The fact that both players are the youngest on the ROC roster is a joke in itself. They were 2 lowly rated prospects from a team that Baseball America rated as the worst farm sytsem in MLB starting the year.

Why arent OUR players at that age in AAA??? MN rated 18th by BA starting the season. MN just refuses to promote its own guys & makes players play multiple years at a level when they no longer need to & stagnate them.

Is Baseball America 100% correct. Liriano was the 6th ranked prospect overall in 2006. Brandon Wood was #3 that year. Jeremy Hermida was #4. Ryan Braun was #49... #50 was McCutchen and Brian Anderson whoever that was was right behind at 51.

 

Glen Perkins was #91 and Matt Kemp was #96.

 

Seriously... Some of you guys have to stop reading these scouting reports and rankings that can be found online. Especially if you are using it as gospel and some form of personal knowledge and letting it fuel this freak out session over the Liriano trade.

 

Maybe these guys will pan out... Maybe they won't... The same could be said about Brandon Wood in 2006.

 

The Twins liked these guys so they traded for them. Lets see what happens. Let them at least find their new lockers in Rochester before losing it.

[Shane Wahl]

Who is stagnating? It seems to me that the Twins are doing their typically cautious prospect shuffle but it's not as if any of the guys are raking at a level where they previously had success. They show prolonged success and then get a bump to the next level... as it should be.

 

The White Sox aggressively promote their guys because they have so few players of quality at any level in the system.

The Twins are the slowest at promoting position players, or at least they were pre-2011. Then they decided to have their best prospects skip AAA altogether. Doesn't work (only for Arcia would it make any sense). Chris Herrmann is stagnating. Josmil Pinto is as well. Maybe Matthew Koch would do better if he was promoted (I wouldn't overlook the letdown that players experience when they are blocked, blocked, blocked) Rene Rivera is not worth keeping catching prospects from progressing.

 

I don't like the Twins currently trading one pitcher for one pitcher. I do NOT get the Escobar involvement in this trade. Pedro Florimon, James Beresford, and Danny Santana may ALL be better overall than this guy.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Last I checked, Santana was playing single A ball and Florimon just got moved up to Rochester. If the kid plays really good defense, at the very least he's going to take the utility role when Casilla/Carrol leave this team, and I'd guess both are gone by 2014. Given his age, it's possible (albeit slim). I'm a bit more interested in the pitcher. He's a harder throwing lefty that can keep it around 92 but dial it up to 95 on occasion... that isn't bad. Per sickles his changeup is average and his curveball needs work. He's young enough that he could figure out some of those secondary pitches, which if he does, he becomes a decent back end of the rotation guy... again, not bad. I'd prefer upside, but I'm guessing there wasn't much upside available for Liriano.

[jorgenswest]

At 23, both are in the growth phase of their careers. If they were 25 or 26, that phase would begin to level. We won't know which other options the Twins had in dealing Liriano. My guess is that Ryan was looking for younger players and he was getting offers of players a few years older that may have had better numbers but stagnating careers. He took the younger players.

 

They are both the same age as Liam Hendriks and Deolis Guerra. I am sure they would have ranked between Hendriks(#7) and Guerra(#15) - likely very close to Guerra in BBA's off season handbook.

 

At 23, they have upside.

[Buck Nasty]

I'm a bit more interested in the pitcher. He's a harder throwing lefty that can keep it around 92 but dial it up to 95 on occasion... that isn't bad.

I've read this as well, but it doesn't match the actual data I've found. Specifically, in his one game this year, Game Day had him throwing high 80's and only occassionially getting up at 91/92 (not consistently). That is consistent with Fangraph's which has his average fastball at 89.8 mph. I fear the talk of him being a hard thrower is all BS unless he's hurt or something.

[Bark's Lounge]

Upside? How would you measure it? Sometimes it is an obviously toolsy guy who isn't performing well. Sometimes it is a guy that is young for his age at a level.

 

What about Escobar and Hernandez?

 

Escobar is the youngest position player on the Rochester roster at 23. He has played every level at a young age. He didn't get there by his tools. He progressed based on his outstanding ability to defend at SS.

 

Hernandez is the second youngest pitcher on the Rochester roster. He is 5 days older than Guerra. He also has had success as a younger players at his level.

 

Who are the youngest players in the Twins system with major league experience? Escobar as a position player Hernandez as a pitcher.

 

They may not be toolsy prospects, but they have performed well enough at a young age to progress. That must count for some upside.

For certain I will see their show. Aren't they the second coming of Sigfried and Roy. I'd be a fool to miss this.

[Thrylos]

. He's a harder throwing lefty that can keep it around 92 but dial it up to 95 on occasion... that isn't bad. Per sickles his changeup is average and his curveball needs work..

hmmmm

I don't know where you got the velocity numbers and I don't know where Sickels (if that is who you are referring) got that about his pitches.

 

mini profiles and scouting reports for both are here.

 

Escobar has 4 pitches: A fastball that averages about 90 and maybe he can reach 92-93, a cutter (that some people describe as a 'slider' but it isn't) that sits in mid-high 80s, a slow (70s) curve and a change. The change is his best pitch and his only truly plus pitch. His FB is above average. His cutter has potential but needs work and his curve is an average pitch that he uses as a change of pace type pitch. And he does not use it that often. Because he had been primarily a FB/change pitcher most people thought that he will end up in the pen before he developed the cutter (he still might, btw) His potential as a starter really depends on the cutter.

[jorgenswest]

The velocity numbers - Sits in the low 90s touching 95 - were in Joe Christensen's article. He was quoting from the BBA prospect handbook.

[greengoblinrulz]

Is Baseball America 100% correct. Liriano was the 6th ranked prospect overall in 2006. Brandon Wood was #3 that year. Jeremy Hermida was #4. Ryan Braun was #49... #50 was McCutchen and Brian Anderson whoever that was was right behind at 51.

 

Glen Perkins was #91 and Matt Kemp was #96.

 

Seriously... Some of you guys have to stop reading these scouting reports and rankings that can be found online. Especially if you are using it as gospel and some form of personal knowledge and letting it fuel this freak out session over the Liriano trade.

 

Maybe these guys will pan out... Maybe they won't... The same could be said about Brandon Wood in 2006.

 

The Twins liked these guys so they traded for them. Lets see what happens. Let them at least find their new lockers in Rochester before losing it.

Cant just look at the rankings in any given year but over several years. Depends on age/level played/previous rankings/injuries & more factors.

Escobar was Sox 5th best prospect entering 2011 season. 19th entering 2010.

Anyone find it amusing that Escobar was a key backup for the first place team in CHI but gets sent to AAA for the last place team in MN. Teams view players differently but MNs views a player CHI liked fairly low if he cant make this roster today.

Just think how low we would send 20yr old Mike Trout if we acquired him......Beloit???

[Riverbrian]

Cant just look at the rankings in any given year but over several years. Depends on age/level played/previous rankings/injuries & more factors.

Escobar was Sox 5th best prospect entering 2011 season. 19th entering 2010.

Anyone find it amusing that Escobar was a key backup for the first place team in CHI but gets sent to AAA for the last place team in MN. Teams view players differently but MNs views a player CHI liked fairly low if he cant make this roster today.

Just think how low we would send 20yr old Mike Trout if we acquired him......Beloit???

Brandon Wood was ranked third... Hermida was ranked 4th. Ryan Vogelsong was unranked. I don't care what the levels are. Wood and Hermida did not pan out and Vogelsong did later. Baseball America isn't gospel nor is the scouting departments of all 30 teams. Stats will tell you what they've done but not what they will be. Sometimes these kids just need an opportunity to shine or fail. A high ranking from Baseball America or the scouts just means that they will get a couple more chances to prove themselves.

 

Baseball America knows more than I do but to read a report on someone written by someone else and using the information in that report to go into a tizzy over a couple of 23 year old players is... I won't say it.

 

Let them put their stuff in a locker. Try on the uniform and let them go to work. My god... These guys are branded by a couple of paragraphs. You can't marginize baseball into a paragraph.

 

As for Escobar reporting to AAA... I'm not sure what your point is but I believe that it's Doziers chance to earn the SS job. Casilla isn't going to Rochester and he has been playing a lot lately. Could be a showcase of sorts. Even money that Escobar is our Casilla next year. Casilla won't be back for 2013 most likely (im guessing) so maybe the Twins are shopping him for another player that will freak people out on this site.

 

Carroll is 94 years old and well paid and under contract next year. He ain't going to Rochester.

 

So I imagine that Escobar is in Rochester for at bats. Just a guess. The context of the Twins is different than the context of the White Sox.

[70charger]

I wonder and we will never know what Liriano's value would have been if he pitched a great game against this weak Cleveland lineup? It could also backfire if he struggled. I just think now they should have let Frankie go 6 innings or so and then take their chances if this is all the trade returned.

 

Bad move Mr Ryan and now go away and take Gardy with you.

I don't see it. You really think that a GM is going to be swayed by one single start? That's just dumb. Look at Liriano's numbers over the last six years (post-TJ) and you see exactly what you're getting. I.e., a guy who is good to great in June and July and a really crappy pitcher at all other times. Thinking that someone is going to overpay based on one more start is the height of ridiculous.

[biggentleben]

Brandon Wood was ranked third... Hermida was ranked 4th. Ryan Vogelsong was unranked. I don't care what the levels are.

That is one of the most ignorant prospecting comments I've heard recently. Prospects can be drastically overrated, yes, but ripping on a system you clearly do not understand is not going to help any argument you make.

[Seth Stohs]

That is one of the most ignorant prospecting comments I've heard recently. Prospects can be drastically overrated, yes, but ripping on a system you clearly do not understand is not going to help any argument you make.

Baseball America does a great job of promoting high school and college baseball, and the draft. They should be respected, but the original commenter is also correct. It's just one ranking, and the Twins evaluaters may or may not agree with some of the rankings. Hopefully the Twins prove right. I'm not excited about either guy, but you never know. If Escobar can become a solid regular 2B or SS, or even a great defensive utility guy for 4-5 years, there's value in that. And, the lefty is at least a guy with some upside, who could become Scott Diamond if all breaks well (not optimistic), but if he's a solid back-of-the-rotation guy, it's a good trade.

 

I'm not going to pretend to know enough about either of them to know definitely what they will become as so many on these boards seemingly are. The Twins minor leagues have needs everywhere.

[biggentleben]

Baseball America does a great job of promoting high school and college baseball, and the draft. They should be respected, but the original commenter is also correct. It's just one ranking, and the Twins evaluaters may or may not agree with some of the rankings. Hopefully the Twins prove right. I'm not excited about either guy, but you never know. If Escobar can become a solid regular 2B or SS, or even a great defensive utility guy for 4-5 years, there's value in that. And, the lefty is at least a guy with some upside, who could become Scott Diamond if all breaks well (not optimistic), but if he's a solid back-of-the-rotation guy, it's a good trade.

 

I'm not going to pretend to know enough about either of them to know definitely what they will become as so many on these boards seemingly are. The Twins minor leagues have needs everywhere.

That's just it, though. Referencing only Baseball America and criticizing their rankings is being very myopic and extreme in prospecting views. There are a wealth of highly respected prospect writers out there, and reading on all of them is vital, as is seeing some games in person. Milb.tv is a wonderful service, allowing you to pick a game or two to watch whenever you'd like. I've watched Hernandez pitch, and I don't have the same doom and gloom of Sickels' analysis, but I don't see anything that you'd want going every 5 days right now. He would make a solid LOOGY, but his fastball straightens out fast, so the second time through a lineup is when he gets teed off on. Kevin Goldstein said via Twitter that the Twins got good roster filler pieces but very little upside in the deal. That's what most are upset about is that Liriano should have netted something with upside, unless the organization feels it can compete in 2013 or 2014 and LOOGY guys and Rafael Belliard types are going to be of value. Taking one high-upside (and likely equally high-risk) prospect in a deal for Liriano would have fit more with the idea that the team is at least looking toward the future.

 

Heck, look at the haul that the Astros have picked up. None of the guys they've acquired in their deals this year have been high-ceiling guys, but that's okay as they picked up a couple guys like that last season. Now they have the makings of a very solid infield and outfield in their minor leagues with a very high upside catcher as well, all acquired in the last 12 months, not to mention essentially an entire pitching staff. That rebuilding has been very well done, and I think Twins fans have some right to wonder why their pieces weren't spun into a future roster in a similar manner.

 

Baseball America is a solid tool, but to base anything off of ranking numbers is completely ignorant of the process. Jim Callis of Baseball America has said it before that the reason you do lists isn't because you feel there's an actual pecking order. It's because it sells and appeals to the lowest common denominator of reader. His hope is always that people will read further into the scouting reports that accompany such lists to understand what BA truly felt about a guy, potential and limitations. Reading through the write ups done on Brandon Wood always indicated a high degree of risk based on his swing and miss tendencies, for instance, but the potential stardom was through the roof because of the raw power. Prospectors are always working to improve their craft as well, so criticizing a process from 1998 would not include most of those working in the industry now as the old guard has given way to a new brand of scout/stat/evaluation hybrid that is constantly seeking to improve predictability and accuracy of reports.

[old nurse]

The Twins are the slowest at promoting position players, or at least they were pre-2011. Then they decided to have their best prospects skip AAA altogether. Doesn't work (only for Arcia would it make any sense). Chris Herrmann is stagnating. Josmil Pinto is as well. Maybe Matthew Koch would do better if he was promoted (I wouldn't overlook the letdown that players experience when they are blocked, blocked, blocked) Rene Rivera is not worth keeping catching prospects from progressing.

 

I don't like the Twins currently trading one pitcher for one pitcher. I do NOT get the Escobar involvement in this trade. Pedro Florimon, James Beresford, and Danny Santana may ALL be better overall than this guy.

I don't read about anybody dominating the minors in hitting that is being kept down a level lower than they should be. What player is doing so over the level of the competition it stands out. They have players doing well, but not that well.

[Riverbrian]

That is one of the most ignorant prospecting comments I've heard recently. Prospects can be drastically overrated, yes, but ripping on a system you clearly do not understand is not going to help any argument you make.

 

Ben... You read what I wrote and thought I was ripping Baseball America?

 

I'm not...

 

I read Baseball America... I'm ripping the people who read it and pretend they are armed with everything they need to know about a player and are now freaking out over the Liriano trade.

[diehardtwinsfan]

hmmmm

I don't know where you got the velocity numbers and I don't know where Sickels (if that is who you are referring) got that about his pitches.

 

mini profiles and scouting reports for both are here.

 

Escobar has 4 pitches: A fastball that averages about 90 and maybe he can reach 92-93, a cutter (that some people describe as a 'slider' but it isn't) that sits in mid-high 80s, a slow (70s) curve and a change. The change is his best pitch and his only truly plus pitch. His FB is above average. His cutter has potential but needs work and his curve is an average pitch that he uses as a change of pace type pitch. And he does not use it that often. Because he had been primarily a FB/change pitcher most people thought that he will end up in the pen before he developed the cutter (he still might, btw) His potential as a starter really depends on the cutter.

I pulled my info off of Sickle's site...

[biggentleben]

Ben... You read what I wrote and thought I was ripping Baseball America?

 

I'm not...

 

I read Baseball America... I'm ripping the people who read it and pretend they are armed with everything they need to know about a player and are now freaking out over the Liriano trade.

I read it and took that you don't think anyone can understand minor leagues from doing research. Yes, if rankings is all you see, that's going to skew a lot of things, but Baseball America is only one piece in a very large instrument in successfully understanding the prospecting industry from the scouting to statistical analysis to "eye test" of interacting with a guy. Some measurable, some not. Your comment came off as very simplistic and assuming that all anyone was seeing was a ranking and not giving credit to those who actually have done research from multiple sources to understand the guys joining their favorite team.

[bird]

http://www.twinsdaily.com/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by shanewahlhttp://www.twinsdaily.com/images/buttons/viewpost-right.pngThe Twins are the slowest at promoting position players, or at least they were pre-2011. Then they decided to have their best prospects skip AAA altogether. Doesn't work (only for Arcia would it make any sense). Chris Herrmann is stagnating. Josmil Pinto is as well. Maybe Matthew Koch would do better if he was promoted (I wouldn't overlook the letdown that players experience when they are blocked, blocked, blocked)

 

I don't buy this slow promotion generality, shanewahl. Your examples of Herrmann and Pinto stagnating aren't accurate. Pinto's put together a nice run very recently. And both are catchers, playing in oppressive heat, getting used to full season play. Slumping at times? Sure. But not stagnating. And your notion that there's some sort of pattern of underperformance and stagnation due to "letdowns"? I think that's all in your head, shanewahl. I see zero evidence to support this theaory.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Historically, I think you can make a case for Neshek, Slamma, and Bartlett, but even in those cases, it's hardly a slam dunk. Neshek and Bartlett were left in AAA longer than they should have for various reasons. Slamma was moved through the system slowly because no one believed he could replicate his success at higher levels.

[Riverbrian]

I read it and took that you don't think anyone can understand minor leagues from doing research. Yes, if rankings is all you see, that's going to skew a lot of things, but Baseball America is only one piece in a very large instrument in successfully understanding the prospecting industry from the scouting to statistical analysis to "eye test" of interacting with a guy. Some measurable, some not. Your comment came off as very simplistic and assuming that all anyone was seeing was a ranking and not giving credit to those who actually have done research from multiple sources to understand the guys joining their favorite team.

LOL... You stretched my comment a bit and took it someplace I didn't intend.

 

Rankings change from year to year. Stats change from year to year... Month to month. Baseball America will nail some prospects perfect from time to time and miss from time to time. So does every front office in the majors.

 

Aaron Hicks had a rough time in Ft. Myers last year and people thought he was a miss. He's turning it around in Conneticut this year and now most people are excited that we have have a superstar again.

 

The human element in baseball can't be reduced to a paragraph scouting report. Stats will not predict a player who finally puts it together.

 

In the end... It's about getting a chance and making it happen when you get that chance. Let's give them a chance before we toss them aside. No reason to be pre maturely angry about these two kids acquired for a pitcher that didn't live up to expectation. They may not make it but let them put a uniform on .

 

I mention Baseball America because BA and other Internet sources is where people are getting their information and using it to go nuts.

 

I read BA and I read other scouting reports and I love looking at stats. I also realize that next year or next month or the next game can be different.

 

The Twins chose these two over other offers. The Twins front office see something In them. Let's see what it is. It is possible that the Twins read BA as well and cross check that with info from their scouts in the field.

 

Can we at least assume that the Twins front office is more informed than you and I. Since they get the Internet info we get... PLUS...

 

Im not slamming BA... I'm slamming those who take the info and think that's all the info needed to hang the Front Office.

[Mike Sixel]

Riverbain makes an excellent point, all we can do is predict the future, but many of us talk about it as if it is some sure thing....It's a good reminder to all (me included) of us to be less certain in some of our posts about the future....that said, there are people that twist this, and say we should never try to comment or predict the future, because we cannot be certain about it. That would lead to an interesting world, frankly....