Article: Why Rosie Isn't Right

[nicksaviking]

I might argue that the reason he doesn't walk more is because he hasn't been given a great reason to swing less. He's making good contact and is being rewarded for his freeswinging ways. Perhaps if things go in the tank for him he would be forced to adjust and come out a more complete player.

[tobi0040]

I think you are right in the sense that he has been a 750 OPS player. But truly elite players aren't forced into making adjustments. They try each day to get better. I have no doubt many people have told him to slow the hacks down. It is a shame he isn't listening.

[DocBauer]

I'm a big Rosario fan. Always have been. I know his lack of walks is frustrating, and some of the wild, crazy, flailing swings at stuff completely out of the zone is doubly so. Frankly, I think he's just trying to hard for the big hit, the big play, instead of relaxing.

 

But his contact was better in the minors. We've seen his talent on display on the minors. We saw last year what he's capable of. And since his promotion back up, we've again seen what he is capable of. 

 

If he can just relax a bit more, not try so hard all the time for the big hit, and just avoid those embarrassing swings, I can live with higher SO totals and lower BB numbers than I'd like. He's very, very dangerous as a 6/7 hitter in the lineup. And despite some bumbling at the beginning of the season, he's quality defensively as well. I'm a big fan and big believer. No way I'd be looking to part with him as some have suggested.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Correlation isn't causation. I watched Rosario lean across the plate to wave at what would've been ball four the other night. A defensive, traumatized hitter doesn't do that. One might look at MLB daily meal money allowances versus those in the minors and correlate increased meal money to increased strikeouts, i.e., Rosario got greedy as he progressed to MLB. BS, too.

I can't speak for Jeremy but what I got from the article is the implication that Eddie changed something about his approach after getting hit in the face and the change stuck.

 

He doesn't have to be afraid of the ball to have lingering effects from something that happened in 2012. It could have altered how he stood at the plate or swung the bat and if he never changed back, it could have a correlation to the beaning event.

[Darius]

It likely has more to do with pitchers having better stuff, better control, and better command as he advanced levels.

 

If anything, you would think getting hit in the grill would make him more timid at the plate, and more likely to bail on inside pitches, rather than swing at more of them.

 

But, who knows, you could be right. Some people are strange, and there is no way of knowing.

 

I do know he's very talented. Lefties tend to like the ball down and/or in. He can go barrel one up anywhere. If he can learn to control the zone, he could be special.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I can't speak for Jeremy but what I got from the article is the implication that Eddie changed something about his approach after getting hit in the face and the change stuck.

 

He doesn't have to be afraid of the ball to have lingering effects from something that happened in 2012. It could have altered how he stood at the plate or swung the bat and if he never changed back, it could have a correlation to the beaning event.

Considering that Rosario wasn't even at the plate when he got hit in the face, that's kind of an odd suggestion.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I am not sure I get this argument at all. Rosario actually had a better K rate the following season in high-A. And his walk rate was just fine until he got to AA a year later.

 

Was he maybe a bit rusty when he returned in 2012? Sure. But there is really nothing else to see in the data here.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Plenty of players - and Sano is a great example because he was facing the same pitchers at the same time - have walk rates that improve even as they face better competition.

 

I invite you to look at Rosario's game log from his season at Beloit. He was taking a ton of walks, then he got hit, and when he came back he stopped taking walks. Same level, same competition.

 

I don't care to speculate on anything mental or psychological, but it stuck out. This wasn't a guy who never knew how to work a count and take a walk. But that's who he is now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Plenty of players - and Sano is a great example because he was facing the same pitchers at the same time - have walk rates that improve even as they face better competition.I invite you to look at Rosario's game log from his season at Beloit. He was taking a ton of walks, then he got hit, and when he came back he stopped taking walks. Same level, same competition. I don't care to speculate on anything mental or psychological, but it stuck out. This wasn't a guy who never knew how to work a count and take a walk. But that's who he is now.

But wasn't his walk rate basically back to normal the next season at high-A? Within normal variation? A difference of ~2 percentage points is far from statistically significant on its own, setting aside the sample size and level differences. And his K rate was actually better the next year than his pre-injury rate.

 

Plenty of players have to adapt their game in different ways as they move up the ladder. The idea that a partial season of Rosario having a 9% BB rate and 14% K rate at his first stop above rookie ball was somehow supposed to represent his true talent baseline for the rest of his pro career is not one supported by your limited data or common sense.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Considering that Rosario wasn't even at the plate when he got hit in the face, that's kind of an odd suggestion.

Okay, I'm a little embarrassed how badly I misread Jeremy's sentence about the incident.

 

Wait, no, this is the internet. It's obviously Jeremy's fault.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I invite you to look at Rosario's game log from his season at Beloit. He was taking a ton of walks, then he got hit, and when he came back he stopped taking walks. Same level, same competition. I don't care to speculate on anything mental or psychological, but it stuck out. This wasn't a guy who never knew how to work a count and take a walk. But that's who he is now.

Looking at the Beloit game logs, after return from the injury, Rosario walked 4 times in 33 games.  While less than his earlier season rate, it was not unprecedented up to that point in Rosario's career.

 

In his first 37 pro games back in 2010, Rosario walked only 7 times.  In his second pro season, 2011, he had a similar stretch midsummer of 27 games and only 4 walks.

 

He drew more walks outside these stretches, but why?  Was it really because he had a natural gift for working the count and taking a walk?  If so, why did he have extended stretches of low-walk aggressiveness?  Which one was his real natural skill/approach and repeatable at higher levels?  Maybe he was just a pretty good hitter otherwise at those lower levels, and opposing teams went through extreme stretches of challenging him and pitching around him?  I suspect low-minors pitching is not nearly as skilled at "pitching around" hitters as compared to upper-minors and MLB pitching, so even some aggressive hitters can take walks in such circumstances.

 

And the following season, 2013, Rosario followed similar patterns -- only 4 walks in his first 100 PA at high-A, followed by a stretch with a much higher walk rate.

 

It's highly likely that, for whatever reason, that was just the kind of hitter Eddie Rosario was at those levels, and quite unlikely that he was a dramatically different hitter before and after his injury.

Edited August 11, 2016 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As I mentioned previously, Rosario was able to bounce back in 2013 with an improved walk-rate, but the strikeout rate continued to trend the wrong way (17.6%).

Jeremy, this is highly misleading.  Rosario's 2013 strikeout rate only trends the wrong way if you include his midseason promotion to AA.  His first half stats at high-A (itself a promotion from his 2012 level) indicate a career low strikeout rate (12.6%), lower even than his pre-injury Beloit rate.

[kab21]

I think this might have happened regardless of him getting hit in the face. This doesn't sound unusual when considering the difference between short season ball, low minors, high minors and the majors. Rosario's natural talent led to him being able to post good K:BB rates even if he was a free swinger in the low minors and rookie ball. 

[go4twinkies]

 

He's still better than Buxton and the best CF option in the system. At least he's got the talent, hopefully the discipline comes in time.

I like Rosy!! Hits triples, strong arm, speed, some power, and hits for average. Looking hard at bats when the pitching is weak. Impossible to provide enough RS to compensate for the poor pitching!!

[drivlikejehu]

I don't buy this premise.

 

An important point about Rosario is that, even though his strikeout rate is OK, he swings and misses a lot - more than Sano, in fact. But Rosario's aggression early in the count keeps his overall K rate in check.

 

As a result, I see almost no upside with Rosario. If he gets more patient, his K rate will spike and undo most or all of the OBP gains he gets from a moderate increase in walks. I just think he's a 4th outfielder, which is nothing to be ashamed of. It still makes him among the most talented players in the world.

Edited August 13, 2016 by drivlikejehu

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't get the "Rosario is a fourth outfielder" arguments.

 

Is he a flawed player? Of course. He needs to fix some serious discipline issues to stick in MLB... But the guy OPSed around .800 in the minors and can play centerfield.

 

He has the talent to be a starter and it's not fringy talent. It's legit MLB talent. There's a reason he posted on BP's top 100 list twice.

 

Im saying this as a person who is not, and never has been, a big fan of Rosario.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I don't get the "Rosario is a fourth outfielder" arguments.

 

It's pretty simple. I think he's basically a 1.5 WAR player, which is the pace he's on this year, and I don't think that's good enough to be an everyday player on a team planning to win. Maybe it's more accurate to say he's a platoon player, though to date he hasn't actually shown a platoon split (a permanent lack of split is extremely rare so I assume SSS). 

 

Maybe you don't agree, but mine seems like a very 'understandable' viewpoint, especially considering Rosario's career MLB OBP is well under .300. 

Edited August 14, 2016 by drivlikejehu

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's pretty simple. I think he's basically a 1.5 WAR player, which is the pace he's on this year, and I don't think that's good enough to be an everyday player on a team planning to win. Maybe it's more accurate to say he's a platoon player, though to date he hasn't actually shown a platoon split (a permanent lack of split is extremely rare so I assume SSS).

 

Maybe you don't agree, but mine seems like a very 'understandable' viewpoint, especially considering Rosario's career MLB OBP is well under .300.

That's reasonable. I think it's possible Rosario ends up as a platoon or fourth OF but I'm not ready to accept that as certainty today. He has the ability to be a starter, it's only a matter of whether he'll tap that ability.

[jorgenswest]

Players can take a significant step up in performance as they approach their prime. It could happen to Rosario as he improves pitch recognition. He is worth the investment of playing time.

[Doomtints]

 

It's pretty simple. I think he's basically a 1.5 WAR player, which is the pace he's on this year, and I don't think that's good enough to be an everyday player on a team planning to win. Maybe it's more accurate to say he's a platoon player, though to date he hasn't actually shown a platoon split (a permanent lack of split is extremely rare so I assume SSS). 

 

Maybe you don't agree, but mine seems like a very 'understandable' viewpoint, especially considering Rosario's career MLB OBP is well under .300. 

 

Strong opinions about a guy who is halfway through his sophomore season and is only 24 years old.

 

Baseball is full of star players who had slow starts.  The Twins had their fair share of them too.  WIth you the Twins would have given up on Frank Viola, Harmon Killebrew, and Johan Santana.

 

One thing baseball stat websites are missing is an easy way to compare baseball players by trajectory.  How does Rosario fare when compared against contemporary players after 180 games?  How does he compare against contemporary 24 year olds?  I'm betting he ranks very well in these categories. 

 

Rosario looks like a different player since he returned from the minors.  His "career OBP" (silly to bring up as he has such a short career) has jumped tremendously in the past two months.  Rosario is a big reason for the Twins playing so well as of late.

 

I'm wondering who you think would be a better option?

[jimmer]

 

 

Rosario looks like a different player since he returned from the minors.  His "career OBP" (silly to bring up as he has such a short career) has jumped tremendously in the past two months.  Rosario is a big reason for the Twins playing so well as of late.

 

I'm wondering who you think would be a better option?

Is that the Rosario who has a .290 OBP this year and falling (after peaking at a whopping .301)? 

 

His .290 OBP is an improvement over his .289 OBP last year.  Small steps. :-)

 

And IF he's a big reason why the twins have been playing so well then one must conclude he's also a big reason why we've gone 1-5 in the last 6 games where he's gotten 10Ks, four hits and zero walks. 

 

3 Walks since the beginning of June May.  His BABIP, however, has gone through the roof since the beginning of July.

Edited August 15, 2016 by jimmer

[Doomtints]

 

Is that the Rosario who has a .290 OBP this year and falling (after peaking at a whopping .301)? 

 

His .290 OBP is an improvement over his .289 OBP last year.  Small steps. :-)

 

And IF he's a big reason why the twins have been playing so well then one must conclude he's also a big reason why we've gone 1-5 in the last 6 games where he's gotten 10Ks, four hits and zero walks. 

 

3 Walks since the beginning of June May.  His BABIP, however, has gone through the roof since the beginning of July.

 

 

Rosario's free swinging tendencies are well known.  As for his OBP, don't forget that his OBP at the start of the year was abysmal - far below his (short) career norms.  The rest of the team had the same problem.  But the point is, if you are comparing this year to last year's OBP and not seeing an improvement, that's why.  He has had a very bad start to the year.

 

Beyond the stats that show he has been playing better since his return from the minors -- he also LOOKS like a different player in his at bats.  It's true that he may be just one slump away from falling back into his bad habits, but he is young enough to where everyone should be giving him a chance.  The Twins would be daft to give up on him now.

Edited August 16, 2016 by Doomtints

[jimmer]

 

Rosario's free swinging tendencies are well known.  As for his OBP, don't forget that his OBP at the start of the year was abysmal - far below his (short) career norms.  The rest of the team had the same problem.  But the point is, if you are comparing this year to last year's OBP and not seeing an improvement, that's why.  He has had a very bad start to the year.

 

Beyond the stats that show he has been playing better since his return from the minors -- he also LOOKS like a different player in his at bats.  It's true that he may be just one slump away from falling back into his bad habits, but he is young enough to where everyone should be giving him a chance.  The Twins would be daft to give up on him now.

Yeah, like I mentioned, his BABIP is like .400 since July.  That's why his OBP rose (and now falling again).  Nothing has changed about his approach other than more are dropping in for hits.

 

I haven't really seen much of a difference.  Either way, I doubt this team gives up on him.  Nor should they.  He's a nice #4 OF.

Edited August 16, 2016 by jimmer

[Doomtints]

 

Yeah, like I mentioned, his BABIP is like .400 since July.  That's why his OBP rose (and now falling again).  Nothing has changed about his approach other than more are dropping in for hits.

 

I haven't really seen much of a difference.  Either way, I doubt this team gives up on him.  Nor should they.  He's a nice #4 OF.

 

I disagree.  I imagine mlb.com has footage of one of his recent at bats.  Take a look at one and compare it to before.  He is not the same player up there at all.

 

As I said earlier, this doesn't mean he won't fall back into bad habits.  But his good numbers are not quite as much of a mirage as you are leading on.  He won't continue to hit at an MVP pace obviously but he has legitimately improved from where he was when the season started.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I disagree.  I imagine mlb.com has footage of one of his recent at bats.  Take a look at one and compare it to before.  He is not the same player up there at all.

What's different, other than the results?  I'm not much of a scout, so I am genuinely curious if you see something notable there.

[jimmer]

 

What's different, other than the results?

his   .400+ BABIP since 1 July ;-)

Edited August 16, 2016 by jimmer

[kab21]

I certainly understand the pessimistic argument regarding Rosario. I think his ideal role on a playoff contender is as a 4th OF'er playing 100+ games all over the place and PH.

But as the Twins are currently put together in addition to the upcoming prospects he is going to have every opportunity to keep his starting spot. And this isn't going to hurt the team much even if he isn't a plus player. For the next couple of seasons the only guys that I see with the ability to take away his starting spot are Kepler, Buxton and Palka. Kepler looks like he has secured his spot with solid peripherals (decent K:BB rates and low BAPIP with a .843 OPS) but even that isn't a lock for next season. Buxton has the upside but some question marks. Palka is intriguing (30+ HR power) but the K's are a concern. I don't see how Walker will contact enough balls in the majors. Granite could be a plan B in CF if Buxton actually does bust but he isn't going to push Rosario out of LF.

Rosario will likely be starting for several years and that will be fine. 

[jimmer]

 

I certainly understand the pessimistic realistic argument regarding Rosario.

FTFY :-)

Edited August 17, 2016 by jimmer

[kab21]

 

FTFY :-)

Age 24 and he isn't going to get better...

But the main point is that someone needs to take his starting position by playing better. Unless of course you think that the Twins are going to make a major trade or sign a big FA. I only have 3 possible names within the next 3 years so he might be starting for awhile. Maybe a Jacque Jones level player for the Twins. Ideally a 4th OF'er but there has to be a better option.