Article: Catching Grief

[Mike Sixel]

 

This doesn't change the fact that there would then be 4 catchers on the 40-man.  This would block the possibility of signing a catcher over the offseason.  

 

The Twins could still very well do that -- they have been rather masterful at painting themselves into corners.  This doesn't mean they should.  

 

Well, if Suzuki is on the 40 man next year, they aren't signing anyone. And, if he's not, then, there you go, they can sign one.....or am I not understanding?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This doesn't change the fact that there would then be 4 catchers on the 40-man.  This would block the possibility of signing a catcher over the offseason.

Garver has to be added this winter anyway, or left exposed to the Rule 5 draft.  (Turner too.)  So they already have to make those decisions regardless of whether they add them in September or November. At least if you add them in September (or now), they can get some MLB reps before next spring.

 

Suzuki would also come off the 40-man roster this winter.  Centeno might a remove and re-sign candidate (he was a minor league free agent last winter).  Heck, Murphy could possibly clear waivers and be outrighted if we really needed a spot.

[nicksaviking]

Take Buster Posey out the equation and the position is just so flukey. I'd be fine rolling with an internal option and which ever vet is willing to take a one year deal, which is probably most of them. Soto, Saltalamacchia, Navarro, Hundley, Castro, Suzuki. None are likely to be a top catcher next year, but with the wild fluctuation of offensive proficiency year in and year out with these guys, you never know.

 

Look at Suzuki in his three years here how much more of a roller coaster could his Twins tenure have been? Everyone agrees Wilson Ramos is going to get a big payday yet there was talk about him getting non-tendered last off season; he was awful in 2015.

 

I'm not getting too worked up about the largely ineffectual and irrationally inconsistent position. Unless you have Posey, all you have is a lotto ticket anyway.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Take Buster Posey out the equation and the position is just so flukey. I'd be fine rolling with an internal option and which ever vet is willing to take a one year deal, which is probably most of them. Soto, Saltalamacchia, Navarro, Hundley, Castro, Suzuki. None are likely to be a top catcher next year, but with the wild fluctuation of offensive proficiency year in and year out with these guys, you never know.

 

Look at Suzuki in his three years here how much more of a roller coaster could his Twins tenure have been? Everyone agrees Wilson Ramos is going to get a big payday yet there was talk about him getting non-tendered last off season; he was awful in 2015.

 

I'm not getting too worked up about the largely ineffectual and irrationally inconsistent position. Unless you have Posey, all you have is a lotto ticket anyway.

There's no reason to exclude Posey, as he's only in his age 29 season.

 

Mauer's age 29 season was good for a 140 OPS+ (much higher than Posey's current 122).

 

Mauer followed that with a 142 OPS+ season and then the concussion happened.

 

In short, Posey still has plenty of time to collapse in a spectacular and unfortunate manner. If anyone was a virtual lock to age gracefully, it was Joe Mauer... And we all saw how that went down.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Take Buster Posey out the equation and the position is just so flukey. I'd be fine rolling with an internal option and which ever vet is willing to take a one year deal, which is probably most of them. Soto, Saltalamacchia, Navarro, Hundley, Castro, Suzuki. None are likely to be a top catcher next year, but with the wild fluctuation of offensive proficiency year in and year out with these guys, you never know.

 

Look at Suzuki in his three years here how much more of a roller coaster could his Twins tenure have been? Everyone agrees Wilson Ramos is going to get a big payday yet there was talk about him getting non-tendered last off season; he was awful in 2015.

 

I'm not getting too worked up about the largely ineffectual and irrationally inconsistent position. Unless you have Posey, all you have is a lotto ticket anyway.

I don't think Brian McCann has been a lotto ticket, even if he hasn't been a star; Martin hasn't been much of one either, pending how he can finish out this season, I suppose (although he was older when he signed his deal too, so I don't know if him failing would be great evidence against Ramos anyway)).

 

I highly doubt Ramos was ever seriously a non-tender candidate last offseason.  It was only one bad season at the plate, partially offset by defense, and he was only due to make $5.35 in arb for his age 28 season in 2016.  No way any team non-tenders such a player given the scarcity of catchers.

 

Also, Ramos currently sits at a 147 OPS+.  I don't know where he'll finish, I would certainly bet the "under" on that figure in any future season, but I don't think it's fair to characterize his range of offensive proficiency as anywhere near that of, say, Suzuki, who has peaked at 105.

[TheLeviathan]

We sold low (Hicks) and bought low (Murphy).  It's not like it was a bad deal, we just didn't get lucky.

 

We certainly didn't lose anything.  Hicks is the hitless scrub many of us thought he was.

[HitInAPinch]

 

We sold low (Hicks) and bought low (Murphy).  It's not like it was a bad deal, we just didn't get lucky.

 

We certainly didn't lose anything.  Hicks is the hitless scrub many of us thought he was.

I still surprise how Murphy could have a couple [ SSS ] decent season with the NYY, then suddenly disintegrate as soon as he joined the Twins.  

 

Don't spend much on a catcher, look for good defense/good arm. Buy low.  

[markos]

 

I don't think Brian McCann has been a lotto ticket, even if he hasn't been a star; Martin hasn't been much of one either, pending how he can finish out this season, I suppose (although he was older when he signed his deal too, so I don't know if him failing would be great evidence against Ramos anyway)).

 

I highly doubt Ramos was ever seriously a non-tender candidate last offseason.  It was only one bad season at the plate, partially offset by defense, and he was only due to make $5.35 in arb for his age 28 season in 2016.  No way any team non-tenders such a player given the scarcity of catchers.

 

Also, Ramos currently sits at a 147 OPS+.  I don't know where he'll finish, I would certainly bet the "under" on that figure in any future season, but I don't think it's fair to characterize his range of offensive proficiency as anywhere near that of, say, Suzuki, who has peaked at 105.

As someone who has watched Ramos very closely for the past few seasons, my big question is durability. He has averaged only 88 games per season over the past 6 years. By comparison, Martin averaged over 120 games per season prior to signing his big deal. If Ramos is demanding comparable money, I would pass. And this is coming from a guy who advocated for signing Martin back in 2015. I think they are comparable players when healthy, but I also think that you are getting 30% more games with Martin. That is a big difference for me.

[Doomtints]

 

Well, if Suzuki is on the 40 man next year, they aren't signing anyone. And, if he's not, then, there you go, they can sign one.....or am I not understanding?

 

Suzuki leaving after the season ends would get them back down to 3 catchers if Garver were added before the end of the season.

 

But they won't want to go back up to 4 catchers to bring in someone new.  The only option would be Garver, Murphy, and Centeno on the roster.  That's a huge commitment just to "get a look" at a guy in the fall.  And when would Garver even play in September with two or three other catchers with the team?  Garver is untested above AA and Murphy looks like he should be in AA.  This is the perfect setup for a classic Twins roster blunder.

If the Twins are at all thinking about their next catcher, Garver should be in AAA so they can see if he can hit against better competition.  

 

Centeno, of course, could be cut if required but with how Murphy has looked that seems like a terrible idea.  it doesn't seem likely that they will give up on Murphy within the next year.  So what do they do?

[Mike Sixel]

 

We sold low (Hicks) and bought low (Murphy).  It's not like it was a bad deal, we just didn't get lucky.

 

We certainly didn't lose anything.  Hicks is the hitless scrub many of us thought he was.

 

I would argue the thing they lost out on was doing something else to fix catcher. It created a "we have a plan" feeling, that prevented them acting in another way. An opportunity cost, as it were (I think there is a different term, I just can't recall it).

[Mike Sixel]

 

Suzuki leaving after the season ends would get them back down to 3 catchers if Garver were added before the end of the season.

 

But they won't want to go back up to 4 catchers to bring in someone new.  The only option would be Garver, Murphy, and Centeno on the roster.  That's a huge commitment just to "get a look" at a guy in the fall.  And when would Garver even play in September with two or three other catchers with the team?  Garver is untested above AA and Murphy looks like he should be in AA.  This is the perfect setup for a classic Twins roster blunder.

If the Twins are at all thinking about their next catcher, Garver should be in AAA so they can see if he can hit against better competition.  

 

Centeno, of course, could be cut if required but with how Murphy has looked that seems like a terrible idea.  it doesn't seem likely that they will give up on Murphy within the next year.  So what do they do?

 

Garver is in AAA. The AAA season ends in 3 weeks....would you just sit him, or call him up?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As someone who has watched Ramos very closely for the past few seasons, my big question is durability. He has averaged only 88 games per season over the past 6 years. By comparison, Martin averaged over 120 games per season prior to signing his big deal. If Ramos is demanding comparable money, I would pass. And this is coming from a guy who advocated for signing Martin back in 2015. I think they are comparable players when healthy, but I also think that you are getting 30% more games with Martin. That is a big difference for me.

Sure.  Martin got 5/82.  My wild Ramos guess earlier was more like 4/60.  Of course, Martin was 3 years older than Ramos at the time too...

[TheLeviathan]

 

I would argue the thing they lost out on was doing something else to fix catcher. It created a "we have a plan" feeling, that prevented them acting in another way. An opportunity cost, as it were (I think there is a different term, I just can't recall it).

 

I can see that, I'm just not sure how robust the other options were.  Having Suzuki and Murphy seemed like an acceptable gamble to me, relative to other options.

 

Certainly the price for that gamble is one I'm on board with.

[markos]

 

Sure.  Martin got 5/82.  My wild Ramos guess earlier was more like 4/60.  Of course, Martin was 3 years older than Ramos at the time too...

My bad. I forgot you mentioned the 4/60 price earlier. Yeah, I would probably be okay with Ramos at that price. But if I had to guess, Ramos will get closer to 5/82. Too many big money teams need catching help (Red Sox, Tigers, White Sox, and Nationals all come to mind).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Suzuki leaving after the season ends would get them back down to 3 catchers if Garver were added before the end of the season.

 

But they won't want to go back up to 4 catchers to bring in someone new.  The only option would be Garver, Murphy, and Centeno on the roster.  That's a huge commitment just to "get a look" at a guy in the fall.  And when would Garver even play in September with two or three other catchers with the team?  Garver is untested above AA and Murphy looks like he should be in AA.  This is the perfect setup for a classic Twins roster blunder.

If the Twins are at all thinking about their next catcher, Garver should be in AAA so they can see if he can hit against better competition.  

 

Centeno, of course, could be cut if required but with how Murphy has looked that seems like a terrible idea.  it doesn't seem likely that they will give up on Murphy within the next year.  So what do they do?

You seem to be missing the point that Garver has to be added to the 40-man roster in November anyway, or likely lost in the Rule 5 draft.  The Twins don't really have the option to leave him off the 40-man roster until next year.

 

And I highly doubt the Twins would draw a firm line at 3 catchers, but not 4, on the 40-man, unless the FA catcher in question was marginal, in which case it's more of a question about quality rather than the number of catchers on the 40-man.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My bad. I forgot you mentioned the 4/60 price earlier. Yeah, I would probably be okay with Ramos at that price. But if I had to guess, Ramos will get closer to 5/82. Too many big money teams need catching help (Red Sox, Tigers, White Sox, and Nationals all come to mind).

FWIW, the Nationals apparently haven't approached Ramos about an extension yet, so I'm not sure they intend to be serious bidders (although logic would dictate that they should be).  I'm not sure the Tigers and White Sox will have the capital to spend that big either (and as it stands now, neither would have a protected first round pick like the Twins).

 

Boston should be a big one, I am frankly surprised they haven't addressed the position already for the 2016 stretch drive.

 

I just haven't seen FA catchers get bid up out of scarcity so much -- Martin and McCann had solid cases to earn their contracts.  The general concerns and limitations about the position seem to keep the market in control?  There just aren't a lot of grossly overpaid catchers.

[Vanimal46]

The Nationals need to save up to afford Bryce Harper's upcoming $400 million contract, no? I suspect they're going to let Ramos go. 

[Doomtints]

 

Garver is in AAA. The AAA season ends in 3 weeks....would you just sit him, or call him up?

 

Ah, I see they did promote him to AAA yesterday.  NICE.

If he keeps hitting at AAA as he did at AA, I would consider adding him to the roster.  It would be a tough decision, but if he seems like he could be ready at all next year I would do it.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ah, I see they did promote him to AAA yesterday.  NICE.

If he keeps hitting at AAA as he did at AA, I would consider adding him to the roster.  It would be a tough decision, but if he seems like he could be ready at all next year I would do it.  

It's not a tough decision at all.  The alternative to leaving Garver off the 40-man roster is seeing him selected in the Rule 5 draft in December.

 

Turner is in a similar predicament, and will be a harder decision.

[Doomtints]

 

You seem to be missing the point that Garver has to be added to the 40-man roster in November anyway, or likely lost in the Rule 5 draft.  The Twins don't really have the option to leave him off the 40-man roster until next year.

 

And I highly doubt the Twins would draw a firm line at 3 catchers, but not 4, on the 40-man, unless the FA catcher in question was marginal, in which case it's more of a question about quality rather than the number of catchers on the 40-man.

 

This is why they needed to get him out of AA.  They need the a bigger sample size with better competition to make an informed decision.  

[h2oface]

I saw the predicament coming when they traded Ramos! Mauer was destined to not last behind the plate, as all catchers share the same destiny.

[Doomtints]

 

It's not a tough decision at all.  The alternative to leaving Garver off the 40-man roster is seeing him selected in the Rule 5 draft in December.

 

Turner is in a similar predicament, and will be a harder decision.

 

The question was about calling him up in September.

 

[h2oface]

Garver was runner up for the Johnny Bench collegiate catcher of the year award the year Turner won it. He has always hit better. Garver is the prospect.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Ramos will be 3 years younger than Martin when he signed that deal, and even with his great season, most experts cap the length of a Ramos deal at 4 years.  That would run through his age 32 season -- Martin last season, or Brian McCann this season. A team signing Ramos will not be stuck with his age 33-35 seasons.

 

Also, it seems you are being a little harsh/selective on Martin.  He's at an 84 OPS+ for the season right now, which isn't necessarily backup level for a catcher -- that, plus good defense/framing is often acceptable for a starting catcher, and it's pretty much what we were hoping Murphy would do to claim the starting job here.  And so far, Martin's 84 OPS+ for the season is largely affected by a disastrous April -- since May 1st, his OPS is .742, equal to Suzuki's 2016 season number.  Since June 1st, his OPS is .800.  Obviously the poor start still counts, I am not asking anyone to throw it out, but it doesn't quite fit the neat little narrative that he is collapsing at age 33 and bound to get worse.

 

RUSSELL MARTIN:

 

JRM Murphy is cheap, Martin is being paid $16 million a year and you expect a lot more. Being as good as Kurt Suzuki since May 1st isn't exactly a ringing endorsement. Obviously this is one year and Russell Martin could turn it around. But the evidence behind that isn't great and I’d bet that a lot of teams wouldn’t want to take Russell for the last three years of the contract if he passed through waivers – that’s a lot of risk for the money at that age.

 

The reason for that isn’t just Martin, it’s free agent catchers in general. If you go back to 2011 (as far back as I could go online) and look at catchers who signed deals 3 years and longer, Russell Martin beings to look like a best-case scenario:

 

- McCann (5 for 85 starting in 2014) has taken an immediate drop off from the .800+ OPS he put up to start his contract. His 5-HR-pop props up his OPS and he’s been relatively durable but he’s trending down in average and OBP pretty quickly. With three years left on the deal, to get rid of him the Yankees will likely have to eat a large chunk of the $34 million+ he is still owed. We’ll maybe see that this winter or next summer since Sanchez seems ready.
- Carlos Ruiz (3 for 26 starting in 2014) has put up OPS’s of .717, .572 and .722 in the three years of that deal. He’s also caught 110 games, 86 games and 42 games those three seasons and is in the Suzuki camp of not getting any interest at the deadline.
- Jarrod Saltalamacchia (3 for 21 starting in 2014) was so bad he was released after one year of the deal and is a career backup since.
- Miguel Montero (5 for 60 starting in 2013) has one year with a .754 OPS and the rest under .700 including his current campaign – a .632 OPS isn’t the worst but as his batting average is .190, it seems reasonable to assume that the OBP is a bit inflated as he hits in front of the pitcher most days. He’s not a bad catcher and the contract hasn’t been awful by any means but he’s certainly not a ringing endorsement of the merits of the free agent catcher. It’s also important to note that Montero signed his free agent deal at age 29 (like Ramos will) so a few years younger doesn’t necessarily mean there isn’t the risk of a marked drop off.

 

AS FOR RAMOS:

 

I’m not sure where you’re getting that Ramos is going to get 4 years. Everything I read said 5 years and $60 to $70 million – he’s at a position of scarcity and he’s on the open market after a career year, someone is going to give him 5 years to try to get him away from the Nationals. Maybe the market drops out on him but I really don’t see it happening given the paucity of other options. Where are you getting four years? It seems like he would do at least as well as McCann/Martin etc.

 

You are correct that he’s going to be 29 when he signs the deal but that doesn’t make it much less scary, especially with his injury history. A 5 year deal takes him through his age 33 season. And again, the difference is that while Ramos is having a career year this year, he’s only averaged 86 games a year over the past five years and only exceeded 100 twice. He’s a year off of a .616 OPS year (in his longest campaign to date of 128 games). You could argue that the injury history means he has less miles on his legs but you also could see them as signs that he’s brittle. Catchers don’t tend to be healthier and better as they age.

 

All of which brings me back to my original point that Wilson Ramos is a bad target. The history of free agent catcher signings provides a number of warning signs and the “successes” are decidedly guarded – Russell Martin has a chance to be the best of those and even he’s not trending in the right direction. The Twins would be making a pretty ill-fated gamble going after Ramos, especially since a Ramos signing isn’t going to suddenly make them a contender.

[Brock Beauchamp]

One interesting thing to note about McCann is that he's been superficially adequate with that contract.

 

I can't combine multiple years because B-Ref is acting up right now but he has something like a +.150 OPS home/road split since going to New York.

 

He's been a very bad hitter on the road and a very good hitter in Yankee Stadium.

 

If he's not playing in Yankee Stadium 50% of the time, it's likely we're looking at that contract and calling it a terrible deal.

 

Year: Home/Road

2016: .706/.776 (actually better on road this year)

2015: .857/.663

2014: .784/.591

[Otto von Ballpark]

The question was about calling him up in September.

Calling him up in September is easy once you've made the decision to protect him on the 40-man this winter (which is also an easy decision if he hits well at AAA, heck probably easy even if he doesn't).

 

Only thing hard about it might be if they want Centeno and Murphy to battle for their 40 man lives this September, although that obviously has little to do with Garver's performance.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think in their most recent FA power rankings, MLBTR suggested Ramos keeping up his hot streak would guarantee his 4th year. Not necessarily require a 5th.

[Otto von Ballpark]

One interesting thing to note about McCann is that he's been superficially adequate with that contract.

 

I can't combine multiple years because B-Ref is acting up right now but he has something like a +.150 OPS home/road split since going to New York.

 

He's been a very bad hitter on the road and a very good hitter in Yankee Stadium.

 

If he's not playing in Yankee Stadium 50% of the time, it's likely we're looking at that contract and calling it a terrible deal.

 

Year: Home/Road

2016: .706/.776 (actually better on road this year)

2015: .857/.663

2014: .784/.591

Sounds like a sample size issue, especially if he is better on the road this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think in their most recent FA power rankings, MLBTR suggested Ramos keeping up his hot streak would guarantee his 4th year. Not necessarily require a 5th.

It will be interesting to see how the Ramos situation plays out this season.

 

I could see most teams offering three years and somebody winning him with a fourth.

 

Or I could see some team losing its friggin' mind and offering him five years.

 

You never can tell with players of that type. He's coming off a career year but plays a premium position. He's been oft-injured but looked good in 2016.

 

It all depends on what teams decide to prioritize (and you never know some some lunatic franchise like Arizona will swoop in and do something silly).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sounds like a sample size issue, especially if he is better on the road this year.

It's possible but we're talking about nearly 1100 plate appearances of extreme splits versus 350 of slightly reversed splits.

 

Which do we believe?

 

A ton of McCann's recent value came from home runs and his home/road splits on those are jaw-dropping (2014-15 35/14 home/road split).