Article: Catching Grief

[markos]

 

Turner is worse than Butera with the stick.  Just sayin'...

Exactly how much worse? I mean, Butera has a .879 OPS right now. So you're saying Turner is just an .800 OPS guy? I'd take that.  

 

Yeah, Turner has been a huge disappointment this year. I really thought by repeating AA he could show some decent progress. But if anything he is hitting worse than last year.  

[Seth Stohs]

 

Nick, while I agree with the overall message of the article, this made me chuckle.

 

Garver is a few months older than Murphy.

 

I thought the same thing. Ha!

 

Also, "aging" at 25 just makes me feel really old!

[markos]

I am excited to see Garver move up. He hasn't necessarily gotten the best defensive reviews, but I noticed this interesting tidbid the other day:

 

Baseball Prospectus has done a ton of work trying to calculate pitch framing using PitchFX data in the big leagues. Beyond the pitch location data, their model adjusts for count, pitcher, batter, umpire, score, etc. One of their interesting findings is that their framing numbers using with PitchFX correlate very well (~.7) even when you remove the actual pitch location component and just look at balls and strikes called. This means is that they can estimate a player's framing ability just looking at the frequency of balls and strikes (adjusting for context). Where is PitchFX currently unavailable? The minor leagues. So they've use this alternate methodology to approximate the framing ability of catchers in the minors. Garver has been one of the top-10 catchers - well above-average - in AA so far this year. So even if he isn't a great catch-and-throw or blocking guy, he could still be valuable defensively.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Ramos  5/82 (Russell Martin money) would be the starting point.  Twins  are not going to do that. 

 

The Twins should not do that. Look at Russell Martin this year, #2 of his 5 year deal. His OPS is .677. Maybe that's an aberration but since he's a 33 year old catcher, I doubt it. He's going to be a backup level catcher earning $16 mill/year for the next three years. You see similar things with every single free agent catcher signed to more than 3 years. It's just a bad market - age and wear and tear are an unbeatable force. And Ramos adds in the uncertainty of being injury prone and posting two subpar seasons before this year's good year.

 

I'm also not interested in trading for another catcher. Great prospects almost never are available (teams hold onto them) so you're trading for another average guy like JRM and the price is usually prohibitive.

 

The Twins have acceptable internal options for next year in JRM and Centeno (JRM may just have forgotten how to hit but his track record in the majors and minors indicates this is likely an aberration) while Garver gets another year in AAA catching every day (leave Stuart Turner in AA for Pete's sake). Garver may not turn out to be an everyday catcher but he should be at least a platoon with a veteran known for defense.

[leopoty]

 

The Twins are hardly the only team in this predicament. Anybody who plays fantasy baseball knows that it's next to impossible to find decent catchers. I can only imagine it's much harder finding good two-way catchers.

 

The problem, especially now, is that anybody who shows any decency at the plate is converted to some other position early in his career.

 

That said, I'd like to see the Twins trade Suzuki and then call up Garver or Murphy and then the one who didn't get called up in September. I'd then switch both of them the rest of the year - mixing in Centeno every now and then. 

 

At the very least, you can get some idea of what you have before you make your offseason free agency plans. 

 

This is exactly were I am at. In no way should we sign a high priced, long term catcher like Ramos who is very injury prone. Almost every team wishes they had a better catcher. Spend money elsewhere. I would go with Murphy and Garver next year.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I don't know how to get out of this one.

 

I am not in love with long term deals for catchers, but I'd seriously look at Castro in the off season and see what he costs. 

 

Probably what I'd do:

1. Get Garver up here after the AAA season ends, and start him every other dayish.

2. If he does well, I roll the dice on him and Centeno

3. If not, and by not I mean I have ANY questions at all.....I try to sign Suzuki to a 1 year deal, with Garver in AAA getting ready.

4. Sign Castro, if I can keep it under 4 years (hahahahahaha).

5. 100% assume Murphy is not a MLB player. If he surprises me, great, but he's not in my plans.

6. Hope that one of the elite catchers in the next draft drops and he races thru the system (hope is not a strategy, btw).

 

Really? You're ready to give up on JRM after one bad year? He'll be 26 next year. In 99 MLB games in 2014 and 2015 (236 at bats) , he put up a .718 OPS. With the Yankees he put up a .735 AAA OPS. I'm not saying he's amazing or that this year hasn't been awful but to think that one bad year means that you should "100% assume that Murphy is not an MLB catcher" seems like a pretty extreme reaction to a relatively small sample size. Guys have off years and to think that Garver jumping from catching half the time in AA to catching in MLB is the best way to do things is crazy.

 

JRM is a nice short term plan for next year and you can always have the Centeno/Hicks/Hermann types in the wings if he fails. JRM still has a pretty decent amount of upside so it's better than signing a Suzuki clone. Garver should get an entire year in AAA where he is the primary catcher. If he gets a cup of coffee this year it should be to get some experience at what MLB is like with the occasional start - throwing him in on the regular after AA seems like a good way to set him back a step.

 

Let's not overreact to JRM's bad year. Or if we do, let's at least own up to it if he has a steady year next year.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Nick, while I agree with the overall message of the article, this made me chuckle.

 

Garver is a few months older than Murphy.

 

This. This. JRM is 25 years old and has a decent track record of acceptable, average catching in AAA and the majors. He had a horrendous year but that doesn't completely obliterate what he did before. He shouldn't be handed a starting job but he's not a bad place holder in a timeshare with Centeno while you get Garver another year where he actually catches every day (he's not even catching half the time in AA this year BTW, we all forget that when we espouse the crazy "get him to the majors, he can hit" plan of attack). JRM still has upside, which is more than you can say for any veteran placeholder.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm saying I would not count on him at all next year.....I'd assume he isn't playing next year. Should anyone assume differently at this point?

[Nick Nelson]

 

Nick, while I agree with the overall message of the article, this made me chuckle.

 

Garver is a few months older than Murphy.

Well yeah, but he's been in pro ball half as long, and hasn't logged hundreds of plate appearances in the majors. They're at very different places on a development curve, was my point. 

[DocBauer]

Love to sign a veteran on a 1 year deal. (Maybe with a 2nd year option) But when I look at potential FA next year, I'm just not encouraged. If my scouts believe in even one guy, I try to get him.

 

Otherwise, I'm looking for another Hicks out there with some ability, but available, and I roll with him, Centeno and Murphy with Garver a bit of a dark horse candidate initially, only due to his lack of AAA time. I go with those 4, 2 at the ML level and 2 in AAA and swap out as necessary. I'm not sinking a big cost in to a veteran on a rebuilding team.

[Tom Froemming]

 

I'd probably sign another middling veteran for 1-2 years (this time, pursue more of a defense-first guy) and just run with it.

 

I'm becoming increasingly convinced that sinking big money into the catching position is a fool's errand.

 

The Twins have enough potency around the diamond where they can live with a bad offensive catcher, provided he gives the team solid defense behind the dish.

 

I don't think a big-money catcher fits into the Twins' plans well at all. If you buy a big-name catcher, you want that guy playing 150-ish games, sliding into DH when he's not behind the plate.

 

The problem there is the Twins already have Vargas, Mauer, Sano, Park, etc. consuming those offense-first positions. If you sign Wieters to a big deal (let's ignore his underwhelming 2016 for now), is he really good enough to supplant those others guys at DH or first on occasion?

 

It seems a bit like throwing bad money at a problem to me. I'd rather see the Twins sink money into pitcher and just hold their nose when the catcher is at the plate.

Nailed it.

 

I think Geovany Soto would be the guy I'd most like them to target. He signed last offseason with the Angels for 1 year, $2.8 M and has had an injury plagued season (a common thing for him, unfortunately), so I'd imagine you could get him on a similar deal.

 

His career OPS+ is actually the same as Wilson Ramos and better than Matt Weiters, though that's boosted by excellent numbers he put up with the Cubs early in his career. Also, his caught stealing % is right about league average.

 

But the main point is guys like him -- 30-something major league catchers -- are available on one-year deals every offseason. I have no problem with the team just going with those guys for a few years. And then if one of the minor leaguers blossoms or you can swing a trade for another young catcher, you don't have that position blocked by an overpaid veteran on the decline.

[South Dakota Tom]

So who is the best defense-first catcher who will be available?    I admit I just don't know enough about the names to know whether Castro or Pena or anyone else is a viable option.   

 

I am also in the camp that says no to Suzuki for longer than a year (and he'll get it), and no to Ramos or Wieters.   

 

I will honestly take a substantially-below-Mendoza offensive catcher if he can gun runners and inspire confidence in the staff.

 

[70charger]

 

I don't know how to get out of this one.

 

I am not in love with long term deals for catchers, but I'd seriously look at Castro in the off season and see what he costs. 

 

Probably what I'd do:

1. Get Garver up here after the AAA season ends, and start him every other dayish.

2. If he does well, I roll the dice on him and Centeno

3. If not, and by not I mean I have ANY questions at all.....I try to sign Suzuki to a 1 year deal, with Garver in AAA getting ready.

4. Sign Castro, if I can keep it under 4 years (hahahahahaha).

5. 100% assume Murphy is not a MLB player. If he surprises me, great, but he's not in my plans.

6. Hope that one of the elite catchers in the next draft drops and he races thru the system (hope is not a strategy, btw).

 

You're onto something here, but with regard to #3, how could you possibly NOT have questions about Garver after less than a month of major league time? Even if he OPSes 1.000 with good defense, isn't there a SSS warning klaxon going off in your head?

 

I just don't think there's any way around having a stopgap or a big signing. Those are the only two possible options. I lean toward a stopgap, given that we already have Centeno, plus the three other high-minors catchers sloshing around AA and AAA in Turner, Garver, and Murphy. 

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, since posting that, I think a stop gap is the right answer, with Garver up half way thru the year to catch as a backup.....

[Doomtints]

The problem with bringing up Garver after the rosters expand in September is that he is not on the 40 man.  To put him on the 40-man would mean they would have 4 catchers on the roster and it would mean releasing someone else just to get a look at a catcher from AA.  The Twins won't do that.  No team would.

 

Although Garver is the best internal choice, we won't see him this year unless one of the other catchers ends up on the 60-day DL or gets released.  

 

Unfortunately this means that next year the problem is still not particularly easy to solve.  If the Twins sign a free agent or re-sign Suzuki, Garver is still blocked by seemingly worse options.  Centeno could be sent packing too, but then the team is still stuck with the apparently very raw Murphy on the roster.  

One move the Twins can do is swap Murphy and Garver at the AA/AAA levels so that the Twins can get a better look at Garver and make a smart decision about the catching position next year.  

 

I'm guessing the Twins will re-sign Suzuki at a cheaper rate and the logjam of mediocre to bad options blocking a promising option stays in place.  

 

[ashbury]

John Hicks was picked up by Detroit and currently has an OPS of .858 in AAA Toledo.

And is deemed so valuable that he still is a Mud Hen, despite a starting catcher on the major league squad OPSing under .600.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm becoming increasingly convinced that sinking big money into the catching position is a fool's errand.

Actually, I'm not sure that this is true.  First off, it seems the market already corrects for this a bit -- there haven't been a lot of big money FA catcher deals.  Secondly, the ones that have happened appear to be working out OK.  Russell Martin had a dreadful start to the season, but he is slowly climbing back -- .800 OPS since June 1st, he could easily finish about league average for the season.  McCann has been pretty solid in NY too.

 

Beyond that, there have been a few extensions.  Yadier Molina's bat has slipped but his defense has kept him valuable.  Miguel Montero's deal was probably a bit excessive, but Arizona was able to dump much of it on the Cubs.  Obviously Posey and Mauer were mega-extensions for franchise players, a little hard to compare with the rest of this group.

 

So basically, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the top catching option on the FA market as too expensive.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The problem with bringing up Garver after the rosters expand in September is that he is not on the 40 man.  To put him on the 40-man would mean they would have 4 catchers on the roster and it would mean releasing someone else just to get a look at a catcher from AA.  The Twins won't do that.  No team would.

 

Although Garver is the best internal choice, we won't see him this year unless one of the other catchers ends up on the 60-day DL or gets released.  

 

Unfortunately this means that next year the problem is still not particularly easy to solve.  If the Twins sign a free agent or re-sign Suzuki, Garver is still blocked by seemingly worse options.  Centeno could be sent packing too, but then the team is still stuck with the apparently very raw Murphy on the roster.  

One move the Twins can do is swap Murphy and Garver at the AA/AAA levels so that the Twins can get a better look at Garver and make a smart decision about the catching position next year.  

 

I'm guessing the Twins will re-sign Suzuki at a cheaper rate and the logjam of mediocre to bad options blocking a promising option stays in place.  

 

they don't have 40 guys on the 40 man right now.....so, that should not be an issue.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Actually, I'm not sure that this is true.  First off, it seems the market already corrects for this a bit -- there haven't been a lot of big money FA catcher deals.  Secondly, the ones that have happened appear to be working out OK.  Russell Martin had a dreadful start to the season, but he is slowly climbing back -- .800 OPS since June 1st, he could easily finish about league average for the season.  McCann has been pretty solid in NY too.

 

Beyond that, there have been a few extensions.  Yadier Molina's bat has slipped but his defense has kept him valuable.  Miguel Montero's deal was probably a bit excessive, but Arizona was able to dump much of it on the Cubs.  Obviously Posey and Mauer were mega-extensions for franchise players, a little hard to compare with the rest of this group.

 

So basically, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the top catching option on the FA market as too expensive.

Dunno, I guess I see it differently. McCann has been pretty underwhelming for the Yankees, hovering around a 100 OPS+ with 2+ more years on his deal. He's been nothing more than adequate at $17m per season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And is deemed so valuable that he still is a Mud Hen, despite a starting catcher on the major league squad OPSing under .600.

With positive defense!  After a respectable 88 OPS+ last year.

 

Also, while McCann is the nominal starter in Detroit, Salty has been seeing significant action and has a .716 OPS.

 

I think you can make a case that John Hicks' lack of MLB opportunity there so far is based on a defensible decision to stick with that pair, rather than try to break-in Hicks during a pennant race.  (Hicks doesn't even have the benefit of spring training working with the Detroit pitching staff, having been acquired in April.)

 

Not that Hicks has great value or anything, but I wouldn't read too much into him still being in AAA.  The fact that he's still on their 40-man roster, and 3rd on their depth chart (meaning they didn't try to acquire anyone else at the deadline), suggests they are still comfortable with him and giving him an opportunity if the need arises.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Dunno, I guess I see it differently. McCann has been pretty underwhelming for the Yankees, hovering around a 100 OPS+ with 2+ more years on his deal. He's been nothing more than adequate at $17m per season.

McCann has been worth 4.6 bWAR / 5.3 fWAR in his first two full years of that deal.  And that doesn't including framing (not sure where he ranks, though).  Less than $7 mil per win.  This year he's a little lower but he's getting dinged in fielding by -4, not sure if that's real or just a small sample issue.  And he's been pretty consistent/durable which has value to a contender -- the Yankees basically haven't had to worry about the catcher position, invest other resources into it, rush their catching prospects, etc. because of confidence in McCann's high floor, even if he hasn't much exceeded it so far.

 

I know McCann apparently cleared trade waivers this month, but I wouldn't read too much into that -- the Yankees weren't going to let him go for nothing so I think that influenced potential claims.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

McCann has been worth 4.6 bWAR / 5.3 fWAR in his first two full years of that deal.  And that doesn't including framing (not sure where he ranks, though).  Less than $7 mil per win.  This year he's a little lower but he's getting dinged in fielding by -4, not sure if that's real or just a small sample issue.  And he's been pretty consistent/durable which has value to a contender -- the Yankees basically haven't had to worry about the catcher position, invest other resources into it, rush their catching prospects, etc. because of confidence in McCann's high floor, even if he hasn't much exceeded it so far.

 

I know McCann apparently cleared trade waivers this month, but I wouldn't read too much into that -- the Yankees weren't going to let him go for nothing so I think that influenced potential claims.

I'm not saying McCann has been worthless, he has been adequate.

 

At $17m per season, the Yankees can deal with "adequate". As we've seen with Mauer, the Twins can't easily absorb that kind of money for middling performance.

 

But McCann had a 120-ish OPS+ in the six years leading up to the NYY deal. The Yankees surely expected decline but I doubt they expected a 20% drop in performance on day one and through the front half of the contract.

[mikelink45]

Lets move on with our minor league catchers and Centeno.  The quality that we can sign in free agency is not much better.  Let Turner give it a try - there.  Out of 26 American League  catchers with 100+ at bats - 19 are batting below 250 

Out of 54 Major league catchers with 100+ at bats - 33 are batting below 250 and 7 below 200. 

 

Our two catchers are in the top 12 of all major league catchers in Pct.  with 100+ ABs

 

Catchers do not warrant long term contracts (see Mauer) and they are not going to be the major upgrade that spending on good pitching could be.  We can go Suzuki/Centano again or Garver/Centeno and be fine.

 

In JAWS - Suzuki is 12 and Centeno is 33 in WAR

 

Lets move on and address the pitcher position and straightening out the roster. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not saying McCann has been worthless, he has been adequate.

 

At $17m per season, the Yankees can deal with "adequate". As we've seen with Mauer, the Twins can't easily absorb that kind of money for middling performance.

 

But McCann had a 120-ish OPS+ in the six years leading up to the NYY deal. The Yankees surely expected decline but I doubt they expected a 20% drop in performance on day one and through the front half of the contract.

The Twins most certainly could have dealt with "adequate" Mauer if he was still a full-time catcher.  Adequate catchers are very valuable.

 

I am sure the Yankees would have liked a higher level of offense from McCann, but I think a large part of what they were buying was his floor, not his ceiling.

[mazeville]

 

This is exactly were I am at. In no way should we sign a high priced, long term catcher like Ramos who is very injury prone. Almost every team wishes they had a better catcher. Spend money elsewhere. I would go with Murphy and Garver next year.

 

Exactly. I think the last thing you want to do is spend a ton on a free agent catcher. This team should start collecting young catchers ...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins should not do that. Look at Russell Martin this year, #2 of his 5 year deal. His OPS is .677. Maybe that's an aberration but since he's a 33 year old catcher, I doubt it. He's going to be a backup level catcher earning $16 mill/year for the next three years. You see similar things with every single free agent catcher signed to more than 3 years. It's just a bad market - age and wear and tear are an unbeatable force. And Ramos adds in the uncertainty of being injury prone and posting two subpar seasons before this year's good year.

Ramos will be 3 years younger than Martin when he signed that deal, and even with his great season, most experts cap the length of a Ramos deal at 4 years.  That would run through his age 32 season -- Martin last season, or Brian McCann this season. A team signing Ramos will not be stuck with his age 33-35 seasons.

 

Also, it seems you are being a little harsh/selective on Martin.  He's at an 84 OPS+ for the season right now, which isn't necessarily backup level for a catcher -- that, plus good defense/framing is often acceptable for a starting catcher, and it's pretty much what we were hoping Murphy would do to claim the starting job here.  And so far, Martin's 84 OPS+ for the season is largely affected by a disastrous April -- since May 1st, his OPS is .742, equal to Suzuki's 2016 season number.  Since June 1st, his OPS is .800.  Obviously the poor start still counts, I am not asking anyone to throw it out, but it doesn't quite fit the neat little narrative that he is collapsing at age 33 and bound to get worse.

[Shaitan]

I'm open to 4 years of Ramos. Year 4 won't get it's cost value, but no FA contract does.

[big dog]

 

And is deemed so valuable that he still is a Mud Hen, despite a starting catcher on the major league squad OPSing under .600.

I'd take his record this year over JR Murphy's output in Rochester.  As far as being in Toledo, this is Detroit, where they love vets even more than Gardy did.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm not necessarily on the Ramos bandwagon, but I wouldn't discount him yet.  The point of my posts above is to suggest that the market hasn't necessarily priced catchers unreasonably before.  If we preclude consideration of the top FA catchers because we don't want to pay for the extra catcher risks, we might essentially be double-counting those risks because they are already reflected in the market price.

 

If Ramos finishes strong and fetches 4/60, that's not necessarily bad.  A short-term veteran may require $5-10 mil himself, so really you are just paying an extra $50-55 mil for Ramos, on his age 29-32 seasons, with demonstrated 4+ WAR upside.  Also, he's often had a manageable K rate, and it's gotten even lower this year after LASIK surgery -- that low K rate could be something the Twins lineup sorely lacks.

 

If an internal option develops, I think Ramos at those terms would be movable during the contract under most outcomes, thanks to the perpetual weak catching market.  Even if Ramos bottoms out like 2015 again, his defense kept him worth 0.8 bWAR that season.  Arizona got out from under 3/40 of Miguel Montero who posted a 0.8 bWAR combined for his age 29-30 seasons.  It's a lot harder for a young catcher's market value to crater than, say, Ricky Nolasco's -- there just aren't a lot of alternatives.

Edited August 10, 2016 by spycake

[Doomtints]

 

they don't have 40 guys on the 40 man right now.....so, that should not be an issue.

 

This doesn't change the fact that there would then be 4 catchers on the 40-man.  This would block the possibility of signing a catcher over the offseason.  

 

The Twins could still very well do that -- they have been rather masterful at painting themselves into corners.  This doesn't mean they should.