Article: Buxton Stalls Out, Again

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-changes-byron-buxton-has-and-hasnt-made/

 

Sure this was posted, but seemed more appropriate in this thread than the Fangraphs thread.

 

My response was and has been this (but, I am sure I am just a moron and wrong):

 

I never liked Buxton’s swing, but was encouraged and excited by reports about this new leg kick he was using when he was crushing in AAA this year. I couldn’t wait to see it once he got brought back up, but was extremely disappointed by what I saw upon return. I wrote about several times a Twins Daily within his first week back.

 

I was upset because the leg kick just looked awful and not of the sort that others use at all. I actually thought it was by accident that his leg kick started so soon and got his foot down so soon. It sounds like maybe that was planned?! all it did was/does is result in him having to stop his body’s momentum before he swings, and then swing with ALL arms and no hip torque. It actually muted his athleticism even more than just staying still the whole time and then swinging. I gave up on him and Twins hitting coaches that first week and haven’t had hope in them since. Kicking early and getting that foot down early simply defeats the purpose of doing it in the first place.

 

I would love to see Buxton incorporate a wider and lower athletic stance to begin, then incorporate a fairly above average-to-high leg kick, that starts later and with the foot being placed down late, with an extremely aggressive swing with his hips (like Corey Seager hip swing aggressiveness.) Just let her buck Buxton.

 

He might remain a high K% guy with that, but at least he would create some crazy exit velocity with his athleticism and a swing like that. So, he would likely have a high ISO and negate his flaws of contact. This would also take pressure off him and make him more confident. Right now his swing sucks, and has no potential to create any bat speed or power, yet he still strikes out a ton.

 

I seriously hope they plan on incorporating an actual real leg kick and stance this time around, instead of messing with him by muting his athleticism even more in hopes of contact improvement.

 

**I'd add the personal observation that it 'seems' as though there is a difference between broader more compact toolsy athletic guys like Trout and Betts, than there is a with skinny-long toolsy athletic guys like Buxton, Hayward, Maybin just off the top of my head. Think athletic and toolsy skinny/tall guys have much more trouble with timing and mechanics in both their swings and getting out of the blocks to steal basses. The shorter guys have an easier time with rhythm, timing, and more success.

Edited August 8, 2016 by ShouldaCouldaWoulda

[Blackjack]

 

How  ma years does a guy have to fail before the story changes from "he was rushed" to "he just isn't good enough"?

I think it depends

 

When is he out of options?? When that times comes, and if hes still performing like he is now, then he's proven himself not good enough - to be a starting outfielder. But he'll always be good enough with his speed and defense to be a fourth defensive outfielder. Unless he keeps running into walls and/or injures himself enough to where he's an average outfielder.

 

The problem is, being such a highly rated prospect, we expect him to be a star, a game changer. 

[d-mac]

 

I decided against trying to write something bigger connecting those two because they really aren't that similar, outside of being center fielders who struggled in their first exposure to MLB. The way they got to that point was way different. I think it's important to remember that Bradley was only advancing from High A to Double A during his age 22 season.

 

I think Bradley has more in common with Hicks. IRC, they came up at the same time and were constantly compared to one another. 

[mlhouse]

This is part of the rebuilding process.  Some prospects make it and even highly touted ones will not.  IT takes time to figure this out and that is the reason why you "rush" prospects.  YOu get the player in, evaluate them against real MLB pitching, and see if they can play or not.  

 

If they can, that is one spot you have "rebuilt".  If they don't, then you move in a replacement.

 

In 1982 the center fielder for the Twins was Jim Eisenreich.  Unfortunately he did not work out for the Twins. In 1984 they found his replacement.  Eisenreich went from A to MLB.  If they would have used the current Twins approach he would not have made the majors until 1984 and Puckett's appearance might have been similarly delayed.

 

But, I don't think Buxton is a total write off.  There is something unusual about this situation.  I think that some of it is mechanical so hopefully that can be fixed.  I also think some of it is physical with the injuries hurting his approach to the game.  But usually players with his level of success don't struggle this badly.  And, if he is a write off, the Twins have other options that they can try to plug in.  

[GMinTraining]

The big question in Rochester is who gets released in order for Buxton to be on roster.  Whoever it is, has been there damn near the whole season.  Will be a rough send off?

[d-mac]

 

Through 576 plate appearances Bradley Jr. had a 47 wRC+.  Hmm. 

 

But Buxton is not there yet. I'm just making comparisons based on a equivalent number of PAs. Bradley hit better than Buxton over the same period. Which, probably explains why Boston was more patient with him during his struggles. But they still sent him down eventually. Would he have figured it out the MLB level? Possibly, but we don't know that. We only know what they did and it worked. FYI, by the time Bradley came up for good in 2015 he had 1,032 PAs between AA and AAA. Buxton has had 459. Neither were ready for the show. There is no harm in admitting that as long as it's rectified. 

[Mike Sixel]

Threeish weeks, it is all of three weeks. Not sure if he can learn anything, and make it a real change, in three weeks......

Edited August 8, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[Brock Beauchamp]

"Among 363 batters who have batted at least 300 times since the beginning of last season, just three have a lower wRC+ than Buxton’s mark of 49."

Look at that list of players who started their careers similarly to Buxton, though. It's near the bottom of the article.

 

We should all be concerned about Byron but his struggles are not historically bad, as has been implied on this board far too often.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Look at that list of players who started their careers similarly to Buxton, though. It's near the bottom of the article.

We should all be concerned about Byron but his struggles are not historically bad, as has been implied on this board far too often.

 

Those are the list that started like Buxton and made it......so that's a severely biased list. What about all the 49ers that never played again (or never played at all)?

 

There just aren't enough players that have been this bad offensively that have played at all, for us to say how it will turn out, imo.

[Halsey Hall]

 

I think everyone does.  Some just choose to doom his career based off the 1st 350 plate appearances, and some look at a bigger picture

Not sure anyone has doomed it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Those are the list that started like Buxton and made it......so that's a severely biased list. What about all the 49ers that never played again (or never played at all)?

 

There just aren't enough players that have been this bad offensively that have played at all, for us to say how it will turn out, imo.

Oh, sure. I'm not saying we shouldn't be concerned, only pointing out that things aren't hopeless.

 

And given Buxton's raw talent, I still believe he ends up a success. I only hope it doesn't require four seasons to get there.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think he'll hit this badly, and I think his defense if going to be (is?) elite. As the fangraphs article states, if he can hit at all, he's a STAR......in no way am I giving up on him, but I admit disappointment (stupid expectations) and more concern.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think he'll hit this badly, and I think his defense if going to be (is?) elite. As the fangraphs article states, if he can hit at all, he's a STAR......in no way am I giving up on him, but I admit disappointment (stupid expectations) and more concern.

Yeah, all of us are disappointed but I think our expectations are partially to blame, along with the Twins themselves.

 

When Buxton was demoted earlier in the season, I didn't want to see him again for at least two months. Give the guy a legit chance to succeed, for crying out loud.

 

He was back up in what, 4-5 weeks?

 

And then, when I disagreed with the promotion, I said "Okay, then let the kid work with Bruno and just hold your nose while it plays out. At this point, consistency is what matters most."

 

And then he gets demoted again.

 

Ugh. This team.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

I cannot emphasize the bolded statement enough. Add to it that he has a grand total of 237 plate appearances in AA. You're talking about a guy that doesn't even have a full season of PAs in the high minors. We need to get beyond the 'he tore it up in AAA.'  Yeah, he's done well there in short samples, but that is a far cry from being ready to hit major league pitching.

 

The real question is what does the team do with him next season. Do they bring in a 1 year stop gap and start him in AAA?  They should have done that this season.

Who knew if he was ready? They apparently thought he was. He wasn't. Now we go from here, with the added knowledge that he cannot hit major league pitching by a mile. It's a good "demotion."

[jimmer]

 

Yeah, all of us are disappointed but I think our expectations are partially to blame, along with the Twins themselves.

When Buxton was demoted earlier in the season, I didn't want to see him again for at least two months. Give the guy a legit chance to succeed, for crying out loud.

He was back up in what, 4-5 weeks?

And then, when I disagreed with the promotion, I said "Okay, then let the kid work with Bruno and just hold your nose while it plays out. At this point, consistency is what matters most."

And then he gets demoted again.

Ugh. This team.

Why are our expectations to blame?  What kind of expectations should we have for a guy so highly touted by everyone for so long? He's not even achieving mild expectations.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Look at that list of players who started their careers similarly to Buxton, though. It's near the bottom of the article.

We should all be concerned about Byron but his struggles are not historically bad, as has been implied on this board far too often.

None of those guys had remotely the K struggles that Buxton has had.  Most of them just had low BABIPs, some just lacked power.  That's not all that unusual.  Buxton's K's skyrocketing, and not appearing to get any better over time?  That's unusual.

 

Some of those guys weren't as dominant in the in the minor leagues either -- Carlos Gonzalez had a 90 wRC+ in AAA the same year he posted a 67 as a MLB rookie.  Is that drop off really comparable to Buxton's?  Brandon Phillips had a .757 career minor league OPS (in a higher-offense era), compared to Buxton's .885.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

They are going to likely make some tweak. Three or four weeks later he will be hitting AAA pitching like he always has and they will call him back up. First it was the toe tap for timing. Smalley keeps saying they were working on keeping his head still. Some think we need to shorten his swing. He tries pulling breaking balls down and away, so he still has a recognition issue. And he seems to foul off strike one and two and start 0-2 constantly. I would like to see a new hitting coach work with him.

Call me completely crazy here, but wouldn’t Molitor in theory be someone that would be beneficial to work through these issues with? He had an extremely low k rate throughout his career. He didn’t have much power (averaged about 10 HR a year) and he relied on his speed for 2B, 3B, and stole a ton of bases. Isn’t a successful Buxton going to look an awful lot like Molitor, although the k rate will never approach Paul’s based on what I have seen of Buxton.

I agree with you about Molitor helping. Buxton's problem is wild fast swinging, not letting the ball get into the zone, going the other way with less than a full cut, etc. - all those things Molitor was a master at. My 2 pennies.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Why are our expectations to blame?  What kind of expectations should we have for a guy so highly touted by everyone for so long? He's not even achieving mild expectations.

I'm saying that our expectations combined with the yo-yo development strategy of the Twins has led to immense disappointment.

 

If Buxton was called up two weeks ago instead of two months ago, is he a different player? Is he something more in line with our expectations?

 

Our expectations are that Buxton would be a more fully developed player than he is right now. Is that a fair expectation given the fact he has fewer than 450 plate appearances in the high minors?

 

I don't think the Twins have done the kid any favors. I was fine with the first call-up but since that time, he hasn't been given enough time to settle in at any level.

 

I mean, look at his plate appearances. It's insanity.

 

2015: 268 plate appearances in AA.

 

Okay, that's pretty legit. Unfortunately, things go to **** after that point.

 

2015: Promotion to Minnesota, 39 plate appearances.

 

2015: Demotion to Rochester, 59 plate appearances.

 

2015: Wait, are you kidding me? Promotion to Minnesota, 99 plate appearances.

 

Oh, thank god. The season is over.

 

Oh no. NEW SEASON!

 

2016: Headdesk. Minnesota, 49 plate appearances.

 

2016: Demotion. Of course. Rochester, 129 plate appearances.

 

2016: STOP IT PLEASE. Back to Minnesota! 169 plate appearances.

 

2016: Byron, you know the routine. Back to Rochester. Whatever plate appearances.

 

2016: (sure to come in September) Welcome back to Minnesota, Byron! STFU already plate appearances.

 

Since his first promotion to Minnesota, Buxton has maxed out at 169 plate appearances at a single level before being promoted/demoted. That's roughly one quarter of a season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And given Buxton's raw talent, I still believe he ends up a success. I only hope it doesn't require four seasons to get there.

That's kind of where I am at.  I certainly think Buxton can make it, but he has SO far to go, and seems to get injured so frequently, he may be 3-4 years into his MLB career before he gets to an acceptable level.  And even then, who knows how well his adjustments will stick long-term.  I keep coming back to Carlos Gomez, who became a great MLB player at ages 27-28 -- but before and after that, has been useful at times but pretty "meh."  And it seems Buxton still has a lot of work to do to even get back up to the Gomez career projection.

[Craig Arko]

 

That's kind of where I am at.  I certainly think Buxton can make it, but he has SO far to go, and seems to get injured so frequently, he may be 3-4 years into his MLB career before he gets to an acceptable level.  And even then, who knows how well his adjustments will stick long-term.  I keep coming back to Carlos Gomez, who became a great MLB player at ages 27-28 -- but before and after that, has been useful at times but pretty "meh."  And it seems Buxton still has a lot of work to do to even get back up to the Gomez career projection.

On the bright side, Byron doesn't swing so hard he falls down in the batter's box.

[tobi0040]

I am not suggesting that this has much to do with his struggles. But four years into our system, I am surprised Buxton is still this skinny. I would have figured he would have added 20 pounds of muscle by now. It doesn't look like he has to me

[markos]

 

That's kind of where I am at.  I certainly think Buxton can make it, but he has SO far to go, and seems to get injured so frequently, he may be 3-4 years into his MLB career before he gets to an acceptable level.  And even then, who knows how well his adjustments will stick long-term.  I keep coming back to Carlos Gomez, who became a great MLB player at ages 27-28 -- but before and after that, has been useful at times but pretty "meh."  And it seems Buxton still has a lot of work to do to even get back up to the Gomez career projection.

Seriously, don't go look at PECOTA's top-3 'Comparable Players' for Buxton on Baseball Prospectus. It will make you sick.

[Craig Arko]

 

I am not suggesting that this has much to do with his struggles. But four years into our system, I am surprised Buxton is still this skinny. I would have figured he would have added 20 pounds of muscle by now. It doesn't look like he has to me

[Vanimal46]

 

I'm saying that our expectations combined with the yo-yo development strategy of the Twins has led to immense disappointment.

 

If Buxton was called up two weeks ago instead of two months ago, is he a different player? Is he something more in line with our expectations?

 

Our expectations are that Buxton would be a more fully developed player than he is right now. Is that a fair expectation given the fact he has fewer than 450 plate appearances in the high minors?

 

I don't think the Twins have done the kid any favors. I was fine with the first call-up but since that time, he hasn't been given enough time to settle in at any level.

 

I mean, look at his plate appearances. It's insanity.

 

2015: 268 plate appearances in AA.

 

Okay, that's pretty legit. Unfortunately, things go to **** after that point.

 

2015: Promotion to Minnesota, 39 plate appearances.

 

2015: Demotion to Rochester, 59 plate appearances.

 

2015: Wait, are you kidding me? Promotion to Minnesota, 99 plate appearances.

 

Oh, thank god. The season is over.

 

Oh no. NEW SEASON!

 

2016: Headdesk. Minnesota, 49 plate appearances.

 

2016: Demotion. Of course. Rochester, 129 plate appearances.

 

2016: STOP IT PLEASE. Back to Minnesota! 169 plate appearances.

 

2016: Byron, you know the routine. Back to Rochester. Whatever plate appearances.

 

2016: (sure to come in September) Welcome back to Minnesota, Byron! STFU already plate appearances.

 

Since his first promotion to Minnesota, Buxton has maxed out at 169 plate appearances at a single level before being promoted/demoted. That's roughly one quarter of a season.

Good God. What player would thrive in circumstances like that?  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

2015: Demotion to Rochester, 59 plate appearances.

It's important to note, this particular "demotion" was basically just an extended rehab stint.  The Twins did the same with Arcia in May 2014.  I think late April 2016 was his first "real" demotion.

 

 

2015: Wait, are you kidding me? Promotion to Minnesota, 99 plate appearances.

 

Oh, thank god. The season is over.

 

A bunch of folks here were encouraged by this one.  His OPS was climbing last September, and his K rate dropping.  Hit a couple HR near the end of the season.  Seemed like most folks here thought he had made enough progress to open 2016 in MLB, even if he was still very much a work in progress at the plate with most of his value coming from defense.

[jimmer]

 

Seriously, don't go look at PECOTA's top-3 'Comparable Players' for Buxton on Baseball Prospectus. It will make you sick.

I'm not a subscriber and I can't seem to find the info.

[Craig Arko]

 

Good God. What player would thrive in circumstances like that?  

Nick Punto?

[tobi0040]

I sincerely hope that our new GM revamps our entire development program. Guys on A ball need to be taught where their gaps are and they need to work on them.

 

I would not be surprised if many other teams scout their own top prospects and provide research on how the player will likely be attacked in the future, then work on that.

 

Along with that, I hope We get another hitting coach. This one is not working for Buxton and he is that important to the franchise.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Good God. What player would thrive in circumstances like that?  

[Mike Sixel]

 

 

I have no idea why Data is in this thread, but I approve any ST references....