Article: Ten Things I HATE About The Liriano Trade

[John Bonnes]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?852-Ten-Things-I-HATE-About-The-Liriano-Trade

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yep, pretty much all of that.

[jorgenswest]

You probably should read the 2012 Baseball America prospect handbook.

 

Do you really believe teams have so little understanding of sample size that one bad start or a six week good stretch in the midst of a couple of poor seasons dramatically changes trade value?

 

A rental player with a two year WAR around 0 is apparently worth close to his WAR. Shocker.

[greengoblinrulz]

Escobar is just a week of ABs (24 I believe) away from not bein a prospect anymore.

So he was dealt for Matt Tolbert and Jeff Manship

[Bark's Lounge]

John, all exceptional points. Today, Sunday, July 29, 2012, is a day that it really sucks to be Twins fan.

[Thrylos]

19. I hate that the Twins acquired a middle infielder that likely won’t make the top 10 prospects in their own organization.

Interesting to say (because he is not a prospect anymore since he has been in the majors all season as he is about as much a prospect as Dozier and Revere are, but I bet Escobar would not crack the list of the top 10 Twins infield prospects (1B excluded). (in no order: Sano, Rosario, Harrison, Michael, Goodrum, Grimes, Beresford, Florimon, Jorge Polanco, Danny Santana)

[Thrylos]

Escobar is just a week of ABs (24 I believe) away from not bein a prospect anymore.

So he was dealt for Matt Tolbert and Jeff Manship

I hate the trade for many reasons, but both of these guys are 23 not 27 and 30. There is still hope and one can hope. (But Ryan and the old boys' club has to go... They need new blood and new thinking ASAP.)

[gunnarthor]

I agree with jorgen. I was hoping the Twins would get someone else's reclamation project but I think a lot of people need to realize how bad Liriano's been. Since 2008, he's had a 89 ERA+ and about 4 WAR, Blackburn has had a 87 ERA+ (in many more innings) and about 3.5 WAR. Liriano has had some nice moments but most pitchers do. He's had a ton of disaster starts and we weren't going to get much for a player like that.

[skraft33]

I think one reason for trading now rather than waiting after his start today is that if he has 11 or 12 starts from this point on, then they burn up about 10% of his value and would presumably get even less in return. And going by that logic, I don't know why they didn't make a push to trade him after his start against Baltimore. Everything about this trade sucks.

[Mick Lenhardt]

This list assumes one big thing: That other teams valued Liriano at the same value the Twins did. The reality is that Liriano is having a terrible season, isn't the pitcher he was 6 years ago, and will never be the pitcher he was 6 years ago. To think otherwise is foolish.

 

A team that has a chance to go to the post-season will look at Liriano's 5.31 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and say "He's not worth it." Every other pitcher that has been traded for better prospects is BETTER than Liriano.

 

It was time for the Twins (and a lot of Twins fans) to get past "what-might-be" for Liriano and realize he is what he is. A inconsistent pitcher that has had an ERA over 5.00 three of the past four years. Twins are lucky anyone took him at all.

[DJSim22]

29. I hate that the Twins want Terry Ryan to return as full-time GM.

 

30. I hate that I'll see one or both of these mediocre prospects this Sept as the Twins try to reinforce that this was somehow a good trade.

 

31. I hate that I have this huuuuge headache after pounding my head into the table as I read the trade last night.

[gunnarthor]

This list assumes one big thing: That other teams valued Liriano at the same value the Twins did. The reality is that Liriano is having a terrible season, isn't the pitcher he was 6 years ago, and will never be the pitcher he was 6 years ago. To think otherwise is foolish.

 

A team that has a chance to go to the post-season will look at Liriano's 5.31 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and say "He's not worth it." Every other pitcher that has been traded for better prospects is BETTER than Liriano.

 

It was time for the Twins (and a lot of Twins fans) to get past "what-might-be" for Liriano and realize he is what he is. A inconsistent pitcher that has had an ERA over 5.00 three of the past four years. Twins are lucky anyone took him at all.

Well put. Too many of us are dreaming on what could be and not the reality of what is. Oriole fans had that problem with Daniel Cabrera for years.

[Mick Lenhardt]

"

13. I hate that the last time we thought a trade was almost this bad was when the Twins traded Capps for Ramos. And even then it wasn’t this unanimous. And the Twins stubbornly kept overpaying and bringing Capps back for two years to justify it. "

 

Actually this is probably what White Sox fans are thinking....."We gave up two prospects for Liriano? HE SUCKS!"

[jorgenswest]

Escobar is a better comp with Nick Punto. He was all glove and no bat at the time the Twins traded for him in 2003. He was entering his age 26 season. If Escobar's glove is as good as the reports, he will have value. He is two years younger than Punto at the time of the trade.

 

The BBA prospect handbook had three shortstops of similar age listed in the White Sox top 10. Escobar at #10 beat the other two out for a spot on the opening day roster. That has to show something about how he was valued in the organization.

[snepp]

Actually this is probably what White Sox fans are thinking....."We gave up two prospects for Liriano? HE SUCKS!"

 

I read the entire WSI forum thread last night (whitesoxinteractive), their initial reaction was generally positive, and they're a pretty high-strung bunch on that board.

[twinswon1991]

29. I hate that the twins want terry ryan to return as full-time gm.

 

30. I hate that i'll see one or both of these mediocre prospects this sept as the twins try to reinforce that this was somehow a good trade.

 

31. I hate that i have this huuuuge headache after pounding my head into the table as i read the trade last night.

yep!

[snepp]

Poon could/would take a walk, so at least when he hit terribly his OBP would only be poor instead of putrid.

 

Escobar's track record isn't so encouraging, less than 6% walk rate in the minors.

[rickyhawaii]

Sickels was a lot more optimistic about pedro hernandez, saying he could be a possible 4 or 5. main thing that makes hernandez likely to fail though is the lack of strike outs. if he develops into a high leverage reliever though that's decent value. Escobar's crappy hitting worries me though, he might be another easy out-rally killer. I think Florimon might be ahead on the depth chart and Daniel Santana is coming along. Another thing I hate is that twins might be done trading now.. that'd be crappy work from Ryan..

[twinsfan29]

Liriano had continually frustrated the Twins and with the stats he had put up how much was he really worth, if one of the players contributes it was an ok deal, if the Twins really want him back he will be a FA and go after him, which I wouldn't. It's not gloom and doom, go after a good FA pitcher in off season.

[DaveW]

How do we know the Twins didn't negoiate with Liriano for a new contract?

 

Also, Liriano may have been the best "rental" available, but there have been reports on mlbtraderumors the past few weeks where teams weren't even sure if Liriano was a starter at this point. At the end of the day he is a guy who has posted a 5.09 and 5.39 ERA's in the past 2 seasons, we all know he is "better" than that, but it is what it is. Perhaps if Liriano would have went out in his last start and thrown 9 innings, 16k we could have got more, but instead he showed just what we have seen all along, which is that you never know which Frankie you will get game in and game out.

 

It sucks we didn't get better players, but at the very least Escobar allows us to shed both Caroll and Alexi's salaries next year and he can serve as the Util guy (upgrade defensively and speed) while saving the Twins 5 mil next year.

 

I have zero expectations for the pitcher they got, but who knows maybe they saw something they can fix.

 

The most apparent thing is that we all overvalued Liriano's true value due to a nice run of 10 starts or so, and the Twins indicated that offering him a 12.5 mil contract for 1 year was not in their best interest. So the two choices were trade him for what we could now, or lose him at the end of the season.

 

Lastly, other then Turner to the Marlins I'd say that the returns for every other player traded this trade season was very underwhelming, hell, the Angels got an Ace in Greinke and had to only give up one good prospect. It's not the end of the world. Let's see what else Ryan can trade this year and let's see what free agents he can pick up in the off-season before we go jumping off god damn bridges.

[Rosterman]

Liriano is a rental, period. So who cares that he was traded to the Sox. Now the Twins have to prove that they can hit him.

 

Someone compared it to getting Tolbert and Manship. Except the pitcher is a lefty and both are 23. Both can go back-and-forth to the minors for a few more years. Both probably means the Twins will say goodbye to Florimon and Bromberg this winter (which may not be all that bad).

 

The Twins can offer Liriano a free agent contract and see what people are willing to overpay. Of course, if he goes 10-1 with the Sox, the Twins won't be signing him.

 

Somehow, Liriano trade actually improves the Sox rotation.

 

It suddenly makes me realize that Span really isn't all the worthy of a great return. Think about it.

[DaveW]

Another thing I hate is that twins might be done trading now.. that'd be crappy work from Ryan..

Who else should they really trade now?

If someone isn't offering good value for Morneau, Span, Willingham, Perkins, Burton etc there is no reason to trade them for the sake of trading them. I'm all for dumping Span if we get some good players in return, but if the offers aren't there you can't make the trade.

 

People blast Ryan for taking a crappy package for Liriano and then they bitch about him not trading more players....yeah, that makes a ton of sense.

[DaveW]

I'd also love for someone to point out the last time someone traded a 28 year old 5+ ERA pitcher(2 years in a row) for anything of substantial value in the past.

[Riverbrian]

 

It suddenly makes me realize that Span really isn't all the worthy of a great return. Think about it.

That's making me nervous as well... The Market for leadoff hitters or OF'ers has been so dang slow to this point. Victorino and Span are both out there along with Pierre.

 

Span has to bring a top shelf arm... If not... Let's keep him. Span isn't going anywhere unless the Twins send him away. No need to send him away unless we get something real decent in return.

[DJSim22]

Who else should they really trade now?

If someone isn't offering good value for Morneau, Span, Willingham, Perkins, Burton etc there is no reason to trade them for the sake of trading them. I'm all for dumping Span if we get some good players in return, but if the offers aren't there you can't make the trade.

 

People blast Ryan for taking a crappy package for Liriano and then they bitch about him not trading more players....yeah, that makes a ton of sense.

Earlier, you said how do you know TR hasn't tried to sign Liriano.

 

Knowing TR's past, one could also suggest that he received a good deal for Span, but is over valuing him and his team friendly contract. I really have a hard time believing that we couldn't get a resonable deal for Span who plays in our deepest area of prospects.

[DaveW]

Knowing TR's past, one could also suggest that he received a good deal for Span, but is over valuing him and his team friendly contract.

Yeah, this is just bull****. What "past" examples are you talking about? Do you and Thrylos share sources that share these imaginary "the Twins wouldn't trade Willingham for Bundy straight up" scenarios?

 

I have yet to see one reported offer for Span or any other Twin player yet.

[notoriousgod71]

I'd have rather gotten Sanchez or Guthrie.

 

KC and Colorado both did better than us.

[h2oface]

32. I hate it that the twins get rid of players with high up side instead of the management team that can't seem to handle the players that do way better when they get away from them.

[Mike Sixel]

Nice list...

[twinswon1991]

I am now convinced that either Spirit of Dave is Terry Ryan himself or he is the biggest Twins FO booster on earth. How can a guy continually praise the FO especially Ryan when his scouting/drafting has left the Twins with a terrible MiL system and a 90+ loss team in the MLB? Seriously, this guy and his good old boys are clueless.

 

There is no way this team improves over the next 5 years unless they get some starting pitching prospects. That means Span, Willy, and everyone else should be traded NOW. It does them no good to have favorable contracts with hitters when we know they are a 90-100 loss team with those same affordable guys around.

 

Ryan needs to be FIRED immediately before this SHIP SINKS!